Join us tomorrow for the next instalment of our Eurozone Research Webinar, this time on the impacts of fiscal policy. We will discuss Eurozone's fiscal position and the impact of the German fiscal stimulus & European defence spending drive. Register here: www.oxfordeconomics.com/webinar/euro...

What seems to have been happening here is that in order to get the fair to middling improvements in output, it has become necessary to throw much more compute at every query, at a rate which has increased faster than the learning curve for the tokens themselves. That ... ain't good.

Ticket barriers at Stansted Airport train station. Is it snowing in hell?

US tariffs are already having a harmful economic impact in Europe - but you won't see it in traditional data for months. You'd be forgiven for not knowing what tariffs the US is charging. Is it 10%, the "reciprocal" 20% or are we at 50% now? Or from June? Or is that July? 1/11

Traditional macroeconomic data is slow - collected at low frequency and released with a long lag. This means that policymakers are effectively flying blind when making decisions. At Oxford Economics, we use a variety of timely alternative data to get around this problem. 1/8

We take the view that US tariffs are a negative demand shock for Europe. But many have argued there might be adverse supply impacts too. We agree there’s a risk, but so far it’s not visible in the data. See our latest research briefing for detail. www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-... 1/10

Remember the FT chart about European tourist arrivals in the US dropping off a cliff in March? This is him in April. Feel old yet? 1/9

We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!

What's the impact of trade policy uncertainty? Which countries & sectors are the most exposed to tariffs? Will the EU be hit by Chinese production surplus? We'll discuss all of this & more in our Eurozone research webinar tomorrow - register below. www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/econom...

You may have seen this chart doing rounds of Twitter et al, showing that Europeans are not travelling to the US under Trump. The chart shows steep drops in March. It's not wrong, but it is inaccurate. 1/10

Tariffs have been all the rage in the news but the war in Ukraine still rages on. The conflict - and its potential resolution - has important ramifications beyond Ukraine, especially for the CEE region. We analyse those in our latest research (link at the end of thread). 1/8

Join us for our CEE webinar next Monday (Apr 14). The CEE outlook is increasingly driven by external developments, and we'll go through all of them: tariffs, uncertainty, German fiscal stimulus, Chinese competition and the ceasefire prospects in Ukraine. www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/no-...

Few regions are as exposed to the shockwaves in the global economy as the CEE: US tariffs, German fiscal stimulus, Chinese competition & Russian geopolitical risk. Join us next Monday (Apr 14) as we discuss all of this at our Oxford Economics webinar. www.oxfordeconomics.com/event/no-she...

@respektcz.bsky.social jsem si poprvé předplatil před 15 lety. Tehdy jsem byl ještě na střední škole a ani ve snu by mě nenapadlo, že se někdy objevím hned v úvodní anketě. O to milejší překvapení to pro mě je - a samozřejmě i velká čest. www.respekt.cz/tydenik/2025...

Don’t know about you but I feel liberated

Well at least the starting point for the trade war is good

No shelter from the external storm for CEE economies There won’t be many winners in the coming era of trade wars, economic fragmentation, and de-globalisation, but the CEE economies are most likely to be among the losers. 1/6

Reality check for Tesla in this Lex note from @johnsfoley.bsky.social. "Tesla isn’t valued like a car company...instead, the company’s massive gain since the election and subsequent fall reflects investors’ shifting views on the plausibility of his various moonshots". www.ft.com/content/f287...

Tariffs don’t have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements (and postponements) by the US have increased trade policy uncertainty, making it less likely that companies will invest. 1/7 Full report: www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/tar...

Also, and my God I’m tired of saying this, the state does not “account for 45 per cent of GDP”. About half its spending is transfer payments (mainly pensions) which recipients can spend as they wish. Government spending on goods and services is more like 20% of GDP.

Watch out for eurozone private consumption (Q4 data out tomorrow). It'll be another 0.7% q/q growth it seems (same as Q3), with most national data already out. Germany stick out like a sore thumb, but the rest doesn't seem too bad. Which is just as well - there won't be other growth engines in 2025.

The ECB is likely to cut the policy rate again later today. This seems sensible, given easing inflation and fledgeling growth momentum. But our research shows that rate cuts might not be as much of a boost to growth as some hope. 1/6

As the UK raises its defence spending stuartmcgurk.bsky.social investigates the £6bn splashed on two aircraft carriers. It's a monumental piece of reporting www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...

Here’s a hot take: There’s been a lot of chat about the EU falling behind the US in economic terms. Undoubtedly true - particularly if you look at things like productivity growth, where the US is doing rather well, and (most of) the EU a bit poorly. 1/5

@budgetlab.bsky.social just published an analysis of an illustrative "reciprocal" US tariff policy that matches foreign tariff & VAT rates on a commodity-by-commodity basis. This excludes currency & trade policy responses but gives a lower-bound impact of such a policy if broadly implemented. 1/9

Pretty disturbed by some of the Kremlin framing on the Trump talks being bought by parts of the media worldwide. It’s as if the genesis of the war is entirely forgotten. This isn’t a conflict which needs mediation. It was an unprovoked act of aggression. It could end tomorrow if Putin just withdrew.

This is quite frankly amazing. Looks like Trump's promise to get rid of inflation is "credible" at least for some? Of course, it's just a survey response - Republican voters won't act on this (by backloading spending etc).

Yet another thrilling instalment in the gripping series "Things cost money"!

*sigh*

Some early, highly aggregate data on January repricing in the eurozone. The monthly change in HICP was -0.3% m/m. In 2000-2019, the average January change was -0.7% m/m. HOWEVER, that 20 year window had annual inflation average of 1.7%, i.e. below target. Remember that time? Feels ages ago. 1/2

I can be as critical as anyone of the government's occasionally muddled message on growth but Look! At! This! Chart!! Anything they've done pales next to this GIGANTIC UNFORCED ERROR COMMITTED IN 2016! (fagpacket maths follows) on.ft.com/4hzyvbJ

Surveys of households and firms are a staple of high-frequency economic indicators, but they have become less reliable in predicting hard economic data like GDP growth. We analyse this topic in depth in our latest research. Full report: www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/eur... 1/13

gilts yields close to their low for the year, so i hope people have got their Takes ready about the surge in investor confidence around Rachel Reeves and the Labour government #watchtheyields

"At the start of 2024, Beijing highlighted exports of the “new three” (batteries, solar cells, and #EVs) as part of its high-quality growth strategy. However, mentions of these sectors have become less frequent in policy documents and state media in recent months." rhg.com/research/fro...

Here's a glass half-full, glass half-empty look on today's eurozone PMIs. Half full: over 50! But here's something even better. The neutral threshold in the composite PMI~%q/q GDP growth relationship isn't 50 - post-Covid it's 48.1. Today's reading of 50.2 is consistent with 0.3% q/q GDP growth. 1/2

Flash January PMIs are out on Friday. Markets and many others treat them almost as monthly GDP. Eurozone composite PMI is expected to stay below 50, i.e. contraction. But I'm going to let you in on a little secret - the neutral threshold is not 50. It's closer to 48. 50 actually means decent growth!

ECB's rate cuts are feeding through - slowly. Intertemporal channel of monetary policy remains intact. Coupled with lending flows to households picking up, this bodes (mildly) well for eurozone consumer spending. But I've seen faster moving icebergs.

This is interesting - selling price expectations among high earners rose sharply in the last three months, catching up with low earners' price expectations (which never really dropped that low in 2024). Higher earners consume a lot more discretionary services - are they worried? 1/2

The December round of the Business and Consumer Survey (aka ESI) was not a very happy read. Core inflation expectations (which lead actual core inflation momentum by about 3 months) have picked up. Not dramatically though, predicting core inflation momentum at around 2.4% annualized. 1/2

Look, we all mocked Sir Gav at the time - but really he blazed a trail for the standards of global diplomacy we see today.

Supply pressures in the eurozone declined sharply in the eurozone, despite shipping rates staying elevated. The reason? Inventory build up for industrial goods. Core goods inflation isn't picking up anytime soon folks. And the boost from rate cuts can't come soon enough.

Our long-time colleague, journalist Anastasia Fedchenko, has just lost her beloved husband in this war. Commissioned officer of the Ukrainian Marines, Andriy Kuzmenko, was killed in action defending the country from Russia.

This is going to be a fantastic year for Britain.

There’s something like a gazillion think pieces contained in this one chart.

I like the FT, I really do. But this post honestly needs to get in the bin. Please stop obsessing about *decimal* moves in *monthly* numbers! Numbers that, I should add are a) frequently revised, b) survey-based and c) part imputed.

This is the worst news I can possibly imagine* *not quite but it is up there www.standard.co.uk/going-out/re...

Trump 2.0 hits differently in CEE What does the second Trump presidency mean for Central and Eastern Europe? We take a look at that in our latest research note. Spoiler - CEE countries are very vulnerable. 1/7 Link to the full report: www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/eur...