Don't really get why you can't buy single-day tram tickets from the Bee Network app. 🤷

If I didn't make these myself I wouldn't believe them.

BREAKING: Andrew Milne has been arrested. A spokesperson for South Yorkshire Police told The Tribune: "Detectives investigating allegations linked to the purchase and sale of freeholds in Sheffield have arrested a man on suspicion of fraud and blackmail."

Salaries are the area where I suffer the most from money illusion. Obviously part of growing older, but there's a bit of me hard-wired to think "£23k is a solid starting salary for standard graduate jobs in London". Obvs based on the time I entered the labour mkt. Which is now £36k or whatever.

Good piece, and not just because it remembers the fuel crisis of 2000. Ministers were totally unprepared, didn’t understand modern fuel distribution and tried to run everything from the centre www.ft.com/content/75ee... Lessons from history on how to survive a fuel crisis

Bank of England Decision Maker Panel shows a fairly small uptick in own-price and CPI expectations. Wonder if Bailey maybe had had a sneak peak ahead of his comments yesterday on firms lacking pricing power!

I am very tired of reading how the answer to all our problems is becoming more dynamic, tearing up the rulebook, harnessing Britain's strengths, taking risks, smashing the orthodoxy, a nimble state, bold strategy, embracing AI, radicalism, daring to dream, regulatory independence, etc etc

"Bailey’s latest intervention feels like a notable change in tone compared to the March meeting," said J.P. Morgan economist Allan Monks. "Bailey’s comments suggest April is too soon for a majority for a hike to develop, and we now shift to expecting one hike in June."

The updated version of interview with BoE's Andrew Bailey is now out. Top lines: - Markets getting ahead of themselves on rate hike bets - BoE will act if needed - but keep in mind need to minimise hit to wider economy - Businesses say they have little pricing power (unlike 2022)

As we saw after the pandemic, supply chain problems (in this case fallout from the Iran war) are mechanically boosting the headline readings of manufacturing PMIs, which were designed to interpret longer delivery times as a sign of robust demand.

Bailey: 💥 Markets still ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes 💥 Stresses remit focus on causing "least damage" to activity, jobs - should frame any debate on precautionary hike 💥Watching infl exps carefully but sees "real lack of pricing power" among firms www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...

Exclusive: Bank of England's Bailey says markets still ahead of themselves in pricing rate hikes 📝 @davidmilliken.bsky.social and Phoebe Seers Seershttps://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-englands-bailey-says-markets-still-ahead-themselves-pricing-rate-hikes-2026-04-01/

Quite a big fall in gilt yields today, with the usual caveats about no-one really knowing what is going on in the world.

UK food inflation heading towards 10% due to Iran war, industry says www.reuters.com/business/uk-...

New post just out: "Cordon Sanitaires and Purity Spirals" Antisemitism is becoming mainstreamed on both left and right at an alarming rate. What can it teach us about the way radicalisation takes root? And can it be stopped? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/c...

Must admit I am starting to think Liz Truss makes some good points on how the minibudget was not at fault for the market meltdown in 2022.

With a few former PMs offering their advice to Starmer in recent weeks which past occupants of No10 (plus a few others) do people think it's worth Government listening to? Major & Brown are the only two where the public are more likely to say they're worth listening to than not

Accepting this would, in essence, double Iranian govt revenues Add that to a more hardline regime taking over, abandoning freedom of navigation as a principle, empowering China *and* proving the Strait of a huge deterrant... ... total Iranian victory. Arguably the greatest geopolitical error ever.

Iran linked hackers break into FBI’s chief’s personal email account: “A Justice Department official confirmed to Reuters that ​Patel's emails were compromised but ​did ⁠not go into detail.” Via Reuters

Anger as EU gets a ‘better trade deal’ with Australia than Brexit Britain

With the Revolutionary Guards now dominant following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hardline views on Iran's nuclear approach are ‌in the ascendant, two senior Iranian sources said. www.reuters.com/business/med...

Half of academic economists surveyed by @cfmuk.bsky.social / @niesrorg.bsky.social say Bank of England should run a tighter policy stance in response to Iran war shock. A quarter disagreed. www.cfmsurvey.org/listsurveys/...

I have seen lots of enthusiastic posting about what a great idea this is. And don't get me wrong, I get the frustration with electricity prices spiking so high when gas prices rise. But so far I've seen far too many half baked solutions being thrown around that don't really add up. 🔌💡 (1/12)

Britain sold £300 million of 30-year gilts today at a tender, paying investors the highest return for this type of bond since May 1998 (including regular auctions). Tiny sale so not hugely significant in that sense. But a tangible sign of the potential cost of the Iran War on debt issuance?

Bank of England MPC member Sarah Breeden sees less risk of second-round effects than in 2022. "There's slack in the labour market, and it's rising. And the outlook for activity was lacklustre even before the energy shock," she told a @resolutionfoundation.org event.

Used EV sales jump in Europe as Iran war drives up petrol prices - www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Exclusive: US links security guarantees to Ukraine giving up Donbas, Zelenskiy says - www.reuters.com/business/aer...

An epidemic of suspicious trading has emerged around Trump's most consequential decisions — each time, just minutes or hours before he rattles global markets. It's precisely the kind of alleged corruption Trump built his political career railing against.

I’m not the first to point this out but it bears repeating- the futures trades are on regulated markets and, if the CFTC were so inclined (it obviously isn’t), it would not be hard to figure out who made them. Pretending like this is some unknowable thing is unhelpful

BoE MPC member @economistmeg.bsky.social says the latest jump in household inflation expectations (👇) doesn't necessarily mean there will be second-round effects - but it could signal a higher risk. She adds that she was not tempted to vote for a rate hike this month.

I think central bank reaction function here is very non-linear. Short term spike in inflation driven by disruption: look through. Medium term rise in inflation: hike to control expectations. Major spike in inflation driven by lasting war: growth fears dominate, cut.

Gilt yields down another leg this morning

I get increasingly concerned about the fetishisation of inflation expectations. They play an important role in theory but a much diminished role in the real world. Inflation expectations are irrelevant (as most sentiment indicators are) UNLESS they change economic behaviour.

Bank of England will be more worried by last night's data showing rocketing public inflation expectations (post-Iran war), than this morning's ONS CPI data for Feb. Citi/YouGov survey recorded biggest jump in year-ahead expectations on record. Long-term expectations at 2nd highest level on record.

Trump approval poll (Ipsos) Approve 36% Disapprove 62% www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

Trump approval on economy (Ipsos poll) www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

Can’t help feeling it’s the word ‘patriot’ that should be in inverted commas here, not ‘drunk’, Manchester Evening News. www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater...

Having a day off but

Another pretty mad day on the gilt market - with the biggest intra-day swing in over 3 years for two-year gilts after Trump's comments on Iran. Ten-year gilt yields also hit their highest since 2008. Hopefully this chart of two-year yields gives a sense of how unusual the past few days have been.

*Checking in on the bond market's unofficial fear gauge for the Iran war/energy price shock* Two-year UK Gilt yields currently down ~30bp from intraday highs

a more accurate version from Bloomberg Live blog

A rather sizeable rally in gilts today! Makes a welcome change.

High Speed 2? More like Speed 2!!!* *You know, 'Speed 2: Cruise Control', the underwhelming film. www.ft.com/content/e0ec...

Well folks, it's been some time and it's half past midnight but here are my initial thoughts on the situation as I find it. bclmacro.substack.com/p/notes-on-t...

Asked what the UK position is on Trump's Iran 48-hour deadline, Steve Reed tells Sky News: "I think you need to ask President Trump about the things that President Trump is talking about doing." He adds that the UK is working with allies towards de-escalation and will not be dragged into the war.

A shocking new investigation by Index reveals that Emily (not her real name), a school librarian in Greater Manchester, faced disciplinary action after stocking the book Men Who Hate Women. Nearly 200 books were targeted. 1/4 By @katiedd.bsky.social

We're now past 5%

💥 UK 10-year gilt yield just struck its highest level since July 2008 at 4.929%

All hail Hey Duggee. Did I write a column to do this disgusting pun? Perhaps CBeebies or barbarism! economist.com/britain/2026... from The Economist