Amazing that this was the very first paragraph in Sir David Higgins' 2014 report on the absolute necessity of building HS2 in full...

A flat set of labour market stats. May be calm before the storm if the international crisis persists. Big picture: c500k fewer people in work than if employment rate was at its pre-pandemic level. Challenge: LFS uncertainty + often big revisions to April's PAYE data (90k, 170k, 265k in past 3yrs)!

📉 While there will always be revisions around this time of year (see bars), so first release April figures should be taken with a pinch of salt, the long term trend line shows a clear inflection and decline in payroll jobs since mid 2024 HT: Simon French on the other place

Quite mixed UK labour market data. 100k drop in payrolls in April very eye-catching - ostensibly biggest since May 2020 - but hard to know what to make of it. ONS says revisions around the start of tax years can be v large: the last few Aprils show revisions of +90k, +170k, +265k(!)

As I see it (with a twenty-five year manufacturing career), there are two angles to how the government can help manufacturing. There's either marginal help for existing industries or blank slate help in new industries. 1/

Interesting read by David. I do worry about a bit about UK manufacturing. Not saying I'm an expert on it but I do think it's a misunderstood sector, particularly in politics.

Pick a Bond from photos you already have in your phone.

Just finished Steinbeck's 'Travels with Charley'. Fascinating to read his thoughts on the lowest strain of Americana - one we know all too well now - in his description of white women in New Orleans who revelled in hurling abuse at young Black girls going to school.

Just finished Steinbeck's 'Travels with Charley'. Fascinating to read his thoughts on the lowest strain of Americana - one we know all too well now - in his description of white women in New Orleans who revelled in hurling abuse at young Black girls going to school.

Glad this is out there. Tangential point: I get why this was presented as "background" (GMCA wanting genuinely useful info out there but perhaps weird to make an official statement on it) But Whitehall IMV abuses this far too much for things that should be on-record replies/statements

Spot the explosive UK bond risk premium vs USTs after swapping out fx & OIS:

Manchester's 'King of the North' Andy Burnham seeks UK conquest - www.reuters.com/world/uk/man...

just noting Gilts remain unbothered by Labour internal strife ? yields are back to where they were on Monday and are moving in line with US yields. GBP a little lower, but also in line with other FX vs. US$. UK equities are higher than the start of the week. there is no panic going on here at all:

Where were you when you began reading Wes Streeting's resignation letter?

New @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social poll shows 2/3s of voters reckon Starmer should resign before the next election, including a majority of Labour voters. Although they're split on whether it should happen right now or later. www.ipsos.com/en-uk/two-th...

Think I'll wait for the hardback version of Streeting's letter

Gilt yields actually seem to have fallen a bit since the Streeting resignation. Perhaps because he said he's not standing for leadership now but instead wants Starmer to set out a timetable for his departure?

Some random observations from UK GDP/trade data for March. Apologies for lame chart quality/labelling but it's a busy day. 1. Manufacturing output back at mid-2024 levels. Although some economists think stockpiling may have brought forward demand

Gonna go out on a limb and say Scottish football is rigged. Not in a grand SFA conspiracy - but more in terms of psychology. If you're a ref, clearly an easier lifestyle choice to give Celtic a soft penalty (so long as it's not against Rangers) Old Firm fans are mental and who needs that shit?

Most interesting thing out of ONS today is this blog that (to my ears) is a change in tune over possibility that GDP data is prone to changing seasonal patterns, as @andrewgoodwin.bsky.social and others have argued. In fact they've nudged down Q1 24 & Q1 25 growth blog.ons.gov.uk/2026/05/14/h...

👀 ONS: "We also published in our monthly GDP release today a review of the partial data we have on spending on April which, on balance, point to some weakening going into the second quarter."

Most interesting thing out of ONS today is this blog that (to my ears) is a change in tune over possibility that GDP data is prone to changing seasonal patterns, as @andrewgoodwin.bsky.social and others have argued. In fact they've nudged down Q1 24 & Q1 25 growth blog.ons.gov.uk/2026/05/14/h...

This is probably the key bit. (She's giving the speech at the LSE in an hour if anyone nearby wants to hear it first hand!)

Interesting speech from BoE's Catherine Mann. She sees risk that rate hikes could spark more volatility in gilts because of the shift in ownership towards hedge funds, overseas investors. That risks tightening fin. conditions by more than BoE intends www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2026/...

Not too much to see in the gilt market today. Yields were down a bit this morning, probably coz no-one had come forward to challenge Starmer. Then Streeting news came along, now yields are flat. Apart from at the short-end - down because oil prices have eased. And I've just eaten a sandwich.

This is the photo

Sign of the times Toby Melville/ @reuters.com

Goodbye, oh maker of nervous breakdowns.

For more on why UK borrowing costs are now so high (aimed at people who don't read market reports every day!) check this out: www.reuters.com/business/fin...

Sign of the times Toby Melville/ @reuters.com

Ten-year gilt yields are finishing the day at their highest since 2008 at just over 5.1% (and 30 years - where the UK no longer issues much debt - topped 5.8%, their highest since 1998, earlier today). A nice chart from my colleague Dhara Ranasinghe illustrating the climb...

could be related somehow to his current gig I suppose

A look back at June 4-5 2009, the moment of greatest danger for Gordon Brown after a series of ministerial resignations.

Luke Pollard, a defence minister, says he won't be resigning. But no warm words for the Prime Minister here.

Now Mel Stride at it too. Bit misleading. OBR is saying sustained 1% pt increase in gilt yields + Bank Rate would amount to extra £15 bln borrowing per year **by 2030/31**. As for the "£23 bln to play with"… I hope to god he hasn't just done: (UK 10y yield / G7 (exUK) average yield) * £15b = £23b

Andy's scenarios point is interesting. Scrapping the triple lock doesn't save much in expectation, because the forecast is always for low/stable inflation (one reason it doesn't get scrapped). But it might save a fortune ex post, if inflation spikes to 10%. Scenarios would reflect that better.

Budgets should be set far more in terms of scenarios. The Bank of England is already going down this route. The idea of a Budget as "THE PLAN" no longer cuts it in perma-shock world. Chancellors will look increasingly daft if they keep blaming the world when their best-laid plans go awry.

This tweet from Ian Murray is being shared widely by MPs who are supportive of Keir Starmer. The point about a "small 0.25 basis point increase in UK government gilt yields costs £17bn a year in interest payments alone" is a wild overstatement.

This morning's gilt auction passed without incident, you'll be glad to hear.

UK 10-year gilt yield now at highest level since July 2008

30-year gilt yields have reached their highest levels since May 1998, LSEG data shows. Back then I was at school and All Saints were Number 1 with 'Under the Bridge'

Not a particularly good day for the gilt market. To be expected, I suppose. Long-dated bond yields up by 10 basis points in early trade, approaching the 28-year highs hit last week.

A story in Excel functions CONFIDENCE COUNT FIND REPLACE

Just discovered that a long Stickle Brick makes an acceptable comb

Lorraine Beavers MP calls for Starmer to go. Could be the call that causes the dam to break.

Am reminded of the Gordon Brown "has got to give the speech of his life" days. My memory is he did pretty well at that on a couple of occasions?

Keir Starmer in Nov 2023, on Rishi Sunak's decision to bring back David Cameron: "The Prime Minister obviously thinks so little of his own MPs that he has had to peel David Cameron away from his seven-year exile... (the) latest reset involves recycling the architects of 13 years of Tory failure."

🗳️ ConstituencyClick 398/650 — Shadow Cabinet 🟩🟩🟥🟨🟨🟥🟩🟨🟥🟩 play.jmoxley.co.uk That was fun! @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk

Some things to bear in mind for politicians considering spouting nonsense about gilts (again) Me, 300 free clicks: - as.ft.com/r/031c1f71-5...

Three cabinet ministers (and James Murray) have just tweeted their support for Keir Starmer, all within a minute of each other