"Members of the group Patriot Front ride the metro as a commuter looks on, during the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 4, 2026. REUTERS/Cheney Orr"

Here's a nice little thing on my bookshelf. My dad bumped into Tom Baker in Waterstones sometime in the mid-90s. He whipped this book straight off the shelf for Baker to sign for me, before purchase. He said something like... "Isn't this illegal? How exciting!"

One area of continuity: lifting every teeny stone of the UK tax code to see what comes up, and none of the big ones

Decision Maker Panel - a business survey watched closely by the Bank of England: • not much sign of companies' own-price and wage expectations budging lower • fall in CPI expectations on single-month basis

Oh god

In Sintra, world's central bankers find ally in new Fed chief www.reuters.com/business/fin...

Brutal demolition from @eciu.net of the 'we're just one per cent of global emissions - what difference can we make' bullshit. www.businessgreen.com/news-analysi...

Heatwave halts Reform bid to scrap climate emergency A council debate on scrapping West Norfolk's climate emergency was postponed after extreme heat made the chamber unusable | Henry Durand

Genuinely an amazing line to have in a impact assessment. Top level. 'Just trust us bro'

A Scottish bank manager is just what the country needs, apparently. 🙂 Not *quite* sure that is the phrase I would've used. Tell me, who is the best-known Scottish bank manager of the last 20 years? www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour...

There's some irony in Reeves and Starmer leaving behind a £1.2bn unfunded spending commitment, but it's not that big a sum to find at the Budget, in the grand scheme of things. The bigger issue is the £25bn funding gap relative to the 3.5% of GDP target. Absolutely no realism about that.

Labour MPs are understandably making hay with today's ONS data that shows the UK economy was the fastest growing in the G7 during the first quarter. Oddly enough, for a time that was also the case for last year's Q1... until subsequent revisions meant it was no longer true.

As Andy Burnham proposes moving No.10 functions north, attention turns to the “Manchester model”. 2 new TPI papers show how devolution, strong institutions & investment have boosted productivity for Manchester. 1: www.productivity.ac.uk/research/uk-... 2: www.productivity.ac.uk/research/the...

Awaiting the big speech

Always good to me reminded of one's interests

TV historian Laurence Westgaph sued us to expose our sources and posted sinister threats about me and the 'cutthroats and sell outs'. We spent £75,000 fighting him in court - a crucial first test of the 'journalism exemption' in GDPR. And we won!! ✌️ www.livpost.co.uk/a-dish-best-...

UK's likely next leader Burnham to unveil plan to shift power from London - www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks...

Incredible

Wonder if some of those high-performing Germany regions might have been pulled relatively leftward since 2018, given all the problems since then. Also latest ONS data (2023) show London less productive on per-job basis than in 2018.

UK public inflation expectations continue to cool, according to Citi/YouGov, which is good news for the Bank of England. • year-ahead expectations fall to 3.8% from 4.7% • 5-years+ expectations fall to 3.9% from 4.0%

such a cool chart. The UK just has no highly-productive mid-sized cities... look at the gap in the middle of the orange bubbles

Citi recommends investors go overweight gilts 😀 "The fiscal risks associated with an Andy Burnham premiership are now more contained. His conscious awareness of bond market jitters and strategic appointments ... signal a commitment to fiscal prudence."

I struggle to balance solemn statements about the importance of committing to fiscal rules, against the truly unserious assumptions needed to meet them. ie. what it would take to balance day-to-day spending with revenues in 2029/30 - something achieved only fleetingly in the last 20 years.

Of course, if Bev Craig succeeds in becoming GM Mayor, there will need to be a by-election for her Manchester City Council seat. And what if another elected official of some description decides to up sticks and stand there? What if AB/Josh Simons have started an infinite by-election chain?

Short-dated gilt yields have fallen every day this week, so that's nice. The 10-year gilt, which everyone loves, is very close to achieving that record too. Come on, you!

UK pensions should be invested in UK companies, industry group says Interesting stuff from Andy Haldane, who is advising Andy Burnham. www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...

Very much enjoying @katie0martin.ft.com throwing shade on the Gilt doomers this morning.

I struggle to understand the fascination with mainstream economists' (broadly accurate) Brexit forecasts... ... the leave forecasts on the other hand www.ft.com/content/f99c...

The curious case of why UK and Canada CPI use grocery scanner data but the US can’t A deep dive on why the US's—the world's most important economy—inflation statistics enhancement progress has surprisingly... https://en.econreporter.com/58106/why-uk-canada-cpi-use-grocery-scanner-data-us-cant/

Chaser.

This is absolutely staggering. A US pilot based at Lakenheath raped and half-strangled a woman despite her clear stated boundaries and the case was heard by the US military at the airbase, not in an English court. Horrendous on every level.

Tony Blair could use computers just fine, pretending to be a Luddite played well in a focus group

We are now halfway to finding out if Britain will meet David Frost's definition of Brexit success: where no-one in 2031 seriously questions it (in comments made to @anandmenon.bsky.social five years ago). Can't wait to see how it goes!

Scotland meet Brazil for the fifth time at the World Cup, by far their most common opponent. David Narey giving Scotland the lead against the brilliant Brazil of 1982, who scored four in reply, is an iconic sporting moment #wc2026

I remember James Purnell!

This will be super obvious to most economists/market types but these are the things I struggle to weigh: 1. Investors can discern between borrowing for purposes that can raise the productive capacity of the economy, against those that won't. Also they can judge fiscal framework changes for better

This is one of those photos that you keep looking at and every time find something funnier about it.

The ‘too long, didn’t read’ here is: Andy Burnham isn’t going to blow up the gilts market. www.ft.com/content/8aa0...

Interesting comments from Darren Jones to Sky News. Asked if Burnham would borrow more, Jones said markets, trade unions and the parliamentary Labour Party would accept some additional borrowing if backed by a credible plan to stimulate the economy.

Terrific piece from @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social about Andy Burnham, who she’s been covering for a decade. www.ft.com/content/9949...

Incredible

Sadly this from Larry Elliott is factually wrong (and Hunt, if he was cited accurately). Even if UK GDP were 4% larger today, it would have grown 19% from 2015 to 2025. US has grown by 27% in that time. This is bad: it gives a false impression that a 4% better performance is somehow outlandish.

Sadly this from Larry Elliott is factually wrong (and Hunt, if he was cited accurately). Even if UK GDP were 4% larger today, it would have grown 19% from 2015 to 2025. US has grown by 27% in that time. This is bad: it gives a false impression that a 4% better performance is somehow outlandish.

Gotta say, I'm more than a little curious about what it will be like when the idiotosphere denialists in eg The Telegraph etc finally concede that, yeah, the climate is changing. What will it take? 50°C in Newcastle? The Thames drying up?

Can anyone fix Britain? Regular change of PM a symptom of UK's malaise - www.reuters.com/world/uk/can...

This is a *great* idea for all sovereign treasuries, and it seems more honest. A central "most realistic" scenario, 2-4 other scenarios. Choosing axes as ever is tricky, but the whole exercise is clarifying. See (among others) The Art of the Long View, Schwarz www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-art-of...

Overhaul economic comms/policy should focus on the resilience of the economy - rather than repeatedly stoking unrealistic expectations like "kickstart growth" or "fastest per capita growth in G7" Resilience is a precondition for growth in a perma-shock world. It can be a positive story too.

Budgets should be set far more in terms of scenarios. The Bank of England is already going down this route. The idea of a Budget as "THE PLAN" no longer cuts it in perma-shock world. Chancellors will look increasingly daft if they keep blaming the world when their best-laid plans go awry.

Bank of England's Alan Taylor says "extended hold" for interest rates is the right response to the recent energy price shock and uncertainty about the future.

Jonathan Haskel - new OBR chair!