Another beautiful Shchedryk performance amidst ruins. It was set in what used to be a DTEK thermal power plant — now destroyed by russia. The contrast between russia’s destructive nature and the Ukrainian will to create beauty even in the darkest times is palpable.

A Russian general has been killed by a car bomb in Moscow, the country’s authorities said on Monday. ft.trib.al/kd25Ome

I'm as much a critic of the EU's decision as anyone, but the UK government simply waited and then copied what EU leaders chose The only thing Brexit achieved was removing a voice from the room that could have argued for a more effective action by all of us

An incredibly shallow piece that doesn't even begin to engage with the real questions: what would the European position be for such talks and how do you get Putin to start caring what we say? Endless substance-free recycling of 'diplomacy is necessary' has been the bane of our policy towards Russia

My entire X timeline is anti-EU posts from people I don't follow. Even if I change it from 'for you' to 'following', it switches back to 'for you' each time I open the site. X is being weaponised against the EU. And unfortunately X is still the public square for European journalists & politicians.

Again, the precedent set by the European Council meeting was negative because of what it said about willingness to resist Russian pressure No benefit from telling ourselves nothing went wrong here

"U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to capture all of Ukraine and reclaim parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire" www.reuters.com/world/europe...

"U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to capture all of Ukraine and reclaim parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire" www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Europe muddled through. It hammered out a compromise solution-- 90bln (instead of 300), which will keep Ukraine's defense going, but Ru's intimidation tactics worked and the assets are only frozen, not used. This is slow (too slow?) progress towards grasping the true gravity of the Ru threat.

Why you do something matters as much as what you do 🧵

For Putin, the number of countries either refusing to take part in supporting UA or reluctant to use RU assets to do so is increasing (Viktor Orbán is no longer a one-man awkward squad). That gives him hope that over time EU support for UA will erode. 5/13

Reflections on the European Council decision to borrow €90 billion and lend it to Ukraine. Tl; dr: Ukraine benefits, but not enough; Putin & Trump will be encouraged; the EU & individual member-states have shown that it’s still too easy to intimidate them. 🧵1/13

It's a real relief to see new funding agreed for supporting Ukraine's defence. However, this money should have come from seized Russian assets. The Government should move - today - to seize the £30bn in frozen assets across Britain and funnel these directly to Ukraine's frontline.

Oh and the exemptions for Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary are also bad Majority voting is an effective way to take action Opt outs/exemptions are the illusion of effectiveness to cover for the dismantling of solidarity and the principle of common gains/common costs

Why you do something matters as much as what you do 🧵

Debates continue among EU leaders on decisions with far reaching consequences for the continent Remains a catastrophic failure of British politics that we now have no representation in these meetings

"When I hear that Ukraine is supposed to hold elections, I respond that Russia should also commit to holding free and fair elections, which they haven't had for 25 years. We need to shift the focus to where the real problem lies." - Kaja Kallas.

A number of important points on the agenda for today's summit of EU leaders Will they act for Europe's common good or fall prey to special interests and national myopia? www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/...

While the West agonises with itself over the terms of a potential peace deal, the Russian war machine continues, waiting for more far-right allies to spring up across Europe

More specifically, short-term LNG contracts banned from April 2026, long-term LNG contracts from January 2027 Short-term pipeline imports banned from June 2026, long-term pipeline contracts from September or November 2027 (depending on certain conditions)

Very good news and an excellent opportunity being restored to British students (even if the new fee system seems to be worse for UK students than what we used to have before Brexit) www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...

Amid the increasingly excited talk of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, we should look at the rapidly crumbling deals Trump negotiated in other parts of the world and ask what that tells us about the current efforts pascallth.substack.com/p/the-shaky-...

Amid the increasingly excited talk of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, we should look at the rapidly crumbling deals Trump negotiated in other parts of the world and ask what that tells us about the current efforts pascallth.substack.com/p/the-shaky-...

Merely matching Article 5 isn't an adequate security guarantee for Ukraine As written, everyone could simply impose some mild sanctions and their duty would be done - that won't be enough to act as a deterrent and could even encourage Russia to test us pascallth.substack.com/p/insecurity...

Ukraine claims strike on Russian submarine with underwater drones www.ft.com/content/4a8b... via @financialtimes.com

Reminder that a map in an office of the Russian defence ministry showed them occupying the entire southern coast of Ukraine

❗️German Chancellor Merz: This is a Russian war of aggression against Ukraine — and against Europe. If Ukraine falls, it will not stop there. Just as in 1938, the Sudetenland was not enough, Putin will not stop.

The most significant thing that can come from these talks is either a transatlantic breakup or a reconciliation - Russia is going to continue its war regardless

When looking at US efforts to broker a peace in Ukraine, an underrated aspect is the potential for other US-led ceasefires to break down in the coming months and undermine US credibility

Really disingenuous position, to call for exploring alternatives, given everyone already knows joint EU debt is the alternative and everyone equally knows that you won't get close to enough support for it

Would love Ukraine to join the EU but the country won't be ready by 2027 and the current member states won't endorse this

Euroclear holds roughly €17 billion on Russian soil, which could be seized in retaliation. But under the new EU plan, Euroclear will be able to "offset" the losses with the €30 billion that its Russian counterpart, the National Settlement Depository (NSD), has on EU soil.

Good - we should be systematically holding up the shadow fleet vessels, as I argued here pascallth.substack.com/p/time-to-gr...

Good - we should be systematically holding up the shadow fleet vessels, as I argued here pascallth.substack.com/p/time-to-gr...

Another reasonable position the Russians won't accept

Important development - looks like we're getting real progress on a plan to circumvent vetos on the frozen Russian assets www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Reminder that this is where our future is being decided, not committees on post-Brexit relations

Highly detailed leak of the current state of Ukraine 🇺🇦 peace talks zn.ua/eng/trumps-n...

"The U.S. negotiating team sees shared economic activity and energy interdependence as the cornerstone of its business-for-peace philosophy" Hmm, I wonder if anyone has ever considered such an idea before and whether it worked

One of the things I said in this post is that MAGA doesn't really understand the positions of its far right allies in Europe Now here is Musk advocating European federalism

Hopefully this is calling their bluff and elections will only be held if ample air defence is provided Otherwise the idea is completely reckless

For all the talk of Europe being sidelined, the European position and actions really do matter and can shape what comes next, even without Washington's prior consent

Cakeism, MAGA style Latest on how Washington can't decide what it really wants from Europe pascallth.substack.com/p/magas-cake...

Cakeism, MAGA style Latest on how Washington can't decide what it really wants from Europe pascallth.substack.com/p/magas-cake...

Starting to get some serious responses to recent statements from US officials

❗️Zelenskyy has arrived in the United Kingdom, — Sky News In London, the Ukrainian leader will meet with UK Prime Minister Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Merz.

Evening speech by President Zelenskyy. "Ukraine deserves a dignified peace, and whether there will be peace depends entirely on Russia – on our collective pressure on Russia..." t.me/Ulfh3dnar/37... Source: V_Zelenskiy_official #Ukraine️ #Zelenskyy #USA #UkraineRussiaWar #Russia

⚡️Ukraine will not accept any peace deal requiring territorial concessions, Syrskyi tells UK broadcaster. “There are no pauses, no delays in (Russia's) operations. They keep pushing their troops forward to seize as much of our territory as possible under the cover of negotiations," Syrskyi said.

Yet that strength is exactly what Europe needs if we are to fulfill the wish of Musk, Trump and others to take over the defence of our continent It's pure cakeism - they want a Europe weak enough to be bossed around but strong enough not to need American help

Confirmation - if there were any doubt - that when some European countries oppose the use of Russia's frozen assets, they're just repeating what Washington told them www.bloomberg.com/news/article...