Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social
đ€ 2837
đ„ 302
đ 3625
Political analyst Right makes might Substack:
https://pascallth.substack.com/
UK-EU talks are in a bad spot Simply a reminder that there is no good, stable outcome for us outside the EU
about 2 hours ago
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Ukraine shouldn't focus too much on Hungary for accession purposes Orban is a loud-mouth but he mostly backs down when truly isolated (they barely put up a fight on last EU sanctions package) Better to worry about convincing France, Poland and the Netherlands
about 3 hours ago
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*Europe faces forever war
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
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Ukraine faces âforever warâ unless Europe steps up pressure on Russia, says ex-Nato chief
Anders Fogh Rasmussen calls for air shield on Nato territory and deployment of European protection force for Ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/06/ukraine-forever-war-europe-steps-up-pressure-russia-former-nato-chief
about 17 hours ago
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Pascal
The Kyiv Independent
about 19 hours ago
âĄïž 'She wasn't afraid of the bombs' â Kherson locals in awe over Angelina Jolie's visit. The visit caused a stir not only in Kherson but across Ukraine, with people eager to learn more her visit to one of the most dangerous parts of the country.
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'She wasn't afraid of the bombs' â Kherson locals in awe over Angelina Jolie's visit
For Kherson journalist Yevheniia Virlych, âdifficultâ doesnât begin to describe day-to-day life in her city â âcriticalâ is closer to the mark. So when American actress Angelina Jolie visited Kherson ...
https://kyivindependent.com/kherson-locals-in-awe-over-angelina-jolies-visit/
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Pascal
Latest blog this week A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
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The Dutch elections are not the progressive triumph they seem
A warning against getting ahead of ourselves
https://pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-elections-are-not-the-progressive
3 days ago
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We should ban algorithmic feeds on social media, whose costs far outweigh the advantages
add a skeleton here at some point
1 day ago
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One reason why we can't bet on Russian economic collapse - there are other powers with a vested interest in avoiding that outcome
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1 day ago
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Pascal
Mark Chadbourn
1 day ago
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: âThe danger posed by Russia will not end when the war in Ukraine ends. âFor the foreseeable future, Russia will remain a destabilizing force in Europe and the world.â
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I think few people other than specialists see the EU as a framework of rules (and many alliances are also frameworks of rules anyway, even if less binding) International alliance vs community of values is probably the differentiating factor in most cases
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1 day ago
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In France the political right condensed this contradiction into a single concept they call 'islamo-leftism' - the logical end point of a belief that your opponents are extreme in every way you dislike, ultimately guilty of accepting all 'degenerate' people and beliefs
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1 day ago
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You might think this is bad for America's outlook but there are self-driving taxis in San Francisco so who can really say
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1 day ago
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When a democrat starts to lose, they reach out to their critics to win back voters When autocrats think they might lose - an act they consider inherently illegitimate - the repression increases
2 days ago
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A much more realistic assessment of the battle for Pokrovsk than the typical pro-Ukraine accounts, which count only Russian losses as if this were the only factor The situation is dire and we're lying to ourselves by believing the defense is impregnable
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3 days ago
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It is really quite important for at least one of these countries to successfully join in the near future No country has joined the EU since 2013. The EU is losing the practice of enlargement and existing member states are becoming foreign to the concept
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
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EU says it could admit new members by 2030, praises Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine
The European Commission said on Tuesday that the EU could welcome new members as early as 2030 as it praised Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova for their progress on reforms needed to join the bloc.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-montenegro-is-most-advanced-country-join-bloc-2025-11-04/
3 days ago
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Hungary's election next year is going to be a nightmare of electoral manipulation as Orban pulls every lever to prevent the popular vote from disrupting his hold on power
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3 days ago
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Labour out of the danger zone. Tories still on the precipice
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3 days ago
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Latest blog this week A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...
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The Dutch elections are not the progressive triumph they seem
A warning against getting ahead of ourselves
https://pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-elections-are-not-the-progressive
3 days ago
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At least someone will say it
www.thetimes.com/world/europe...
5 days ago
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reposted by
Pascal
Lewis Goodall
5 days ago
SUPERINTENDANT JOHN LOVELESS BRITISH TRANSPORT POLICE: Two arrested 32 year old male, black British national 35 year old male, British national, "of Caribbean descent" Both were born in the UK 4 of those attacked discharged
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French politics is so bizarre right now, yesterday a tax was voted through with the support of the far-right, centre-left and a centrist party, against the opposition of the far-left, centre-right and other centrist parties
www.bfmtv.com/economie/eco...
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LâAssemblĂ©e nationale adopte un "impĂŽt sur la fortune improductive"
La transformation de l'impÎt sur la fortune immobiliÚre (IFI) en "impÎt sur la fortune improductive" a été approuvé, ce vendredi 31 octobre, par l'Assemblée nationale.
https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/economie-social/l-assemblee-nationale-adopte-la-creation-d-un-impot-sur-la-fortune-improductive_AD-202511010095.html
6 days ago
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@robinwigglesworth.ft.com
thanks for the shout-out on FTAV this morning!
7 days ago
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New poll puts Macron at 11% popularity That's total, not net Reaches the same record low as Hollande
8 days ago
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reposted by
Pascal
In my latest blog this week, I try to unpack the different ways that people talk about the feasibility of the UK rejoining the EU
pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk...
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Can the UK âjustâ rejoin the EU?
Yes, but occasionally no
https://pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk-just-rejoin-the-eu
10 days ago
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Pretty close for the top spot but looks like centrist D66 might just take it from the far-right
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9 days ago
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At that level probably the total population would also fall, or at least stall
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9 days ago
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Dutch elections today Lots of polling movement in the last few months but the choice will likely come down to another right-wing coalition including the far-right or a coalition between centre-right and centre-left
9 days ago
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In my latest blog this week, I try to unpack the different ways that people talk about the feasibility of the UK rejoining the EU
pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk...
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Can the UK âjustâ rejoin the EU?
Yes, but occasionally no
https://pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk-just-rejoin-the-eu
10 days ago
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Should have gone to Poland
www.dw.com/en/italian-c...
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Italian court approves extradition in Nord Stream case â DW â 10/27/2025
A court in Italy has given the go-ahead to extradite a Ukrainian suspect to Germany over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. The gas delivery route was long seen as a symbol of Germany's overrelia...
https://www.dw.com/en/italian-court-approves-extradition-in-nord-stream-case/a-74509848
10 days ago
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Combining this with FPTP will be less a democratic election and more a spin on the roulette wheel to see who comes out on top
10 days ago
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Anyone who knows Ukraine and Ukrainians knows that the will to keep fighting is bottom-up, not top-down
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11 days ago
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Britain in 2029 as a fun mixture of Spain and France
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14 days ago
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Obvious focus on Labour here but that's a big drop for the Tories too
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14 days ago
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reposted by
Pascal
Britain Elects
14 days ago
Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result: PC: 47.4% (+19.0) REF: 36.0% (+34.2) LAB: 11.0% (-34.9) CON: 2.0% (-15.3) GRN: 1.5% (+1.5) LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2) GWL: 0.3% (+0.3) UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2) Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.
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Our absence now from European Council summits still gets me Real decisions being made by a gathering of leaders from almost all of Europe on our continent's attitude towards Ukraine, defence, the economy, migration and climate And Britain isn't there Undeniable geopolitical failure
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15 days ago
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Movement on Russia sanctions this morning đșđžUS sanctions on energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft đȘđșEU sanctions on LNG imports, more shadow fleet and some Chinese entities trading Russian oil
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
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https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eu-approves-19th-package-russian-sanctions-including-lng-ban-2025-10-22/
15 days ago
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pascallth.substack.com/p/the-tomaha...
16 days ago
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At last some serious numbers
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16 days ago
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Pascal
Minna Ă lander đ»
16 days ago
Big news from Sweden: A memorandum of understanding has been signed with Ukraine for the sale of up to 150 Gripen fighter jets
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SVT erfar: Sverige vill sÀlja 150 Gripenplan till Ukraina
Sverige skriver under en avsiktsförklaring om att undersöka möjligheten att sÀlja uppemot 150 Gripenplan till Ukraina, erfar SVT. Det meddelar statsminister Ulf Kristersson pÄ en presstrÀff inom kort,...
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/ost/zelenskyj-besoker-sverige-traffar-statsministern-i-linkoping
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Pascal
YouGov America
17 days ago
NEW Economist/YouGov Oct 17-20: Ukraine aid 35% of Americans want to increase U.S. military aid to Ukraine, a record high since our polls began asking in Sep 2022 21% want to decrease or stop U.S. military aid to Ukraine, the lowest share in three years
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
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Pascal
Too focused on silver bullet solutions, too reliant on America, too afraid of Russia - the Tomahawks debate is everything wrong with support for Ukraine
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-tomaha...
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The Tomahawks debate is everything wrong with support for Ukraine
We need a better debate on arming Kyiv
https://pascallth.substack.com/p/the-tomahawks-debate-is-everything
18 days ago
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Was sceptical of Greens score in other polls but here it's a credible pollster Perhaps a 4-way split was too easy and what British politics really needs is a 5-way split under FPTP
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17 days ago
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Too focused on silver bullet solutions, too reliant on America, too afraid of Russia - the Tomahawks debate is everything wrong with support for Ukraine
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-tomaha...
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The Tomahawks debate is everything wrong with support for Ukraine
We need a better debate on arming Kyiv
https://pascallth.substack.com/p/the-tomahawks-debate-is-everything
18 days ago
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An odd piece that doesn't really engage with the main obstacle to discreet and effective Russia-Europe talks: Russia itself It even acknowledges that there have been multiple attempts at European outreach since 2022 These failed because Russia isn't interested in talking to us
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18 days ago
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A tough read, but a necessary one for all those who thought Trump was moving in favour of Ukraine
www.ft.com/content/7960...
19 days ago
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The narrative that Ukraine is actually winning and time is against Russia is contradicted by Ukraine's clear willingness to agree to an immediate ceasefire on the current frontline I'd like Ukraine to be winning but the frontline is overwhelmingly moving in one direction
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20 days ago
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You can save yourself a lot of trouble following the twists and turns if you just assume Trump will never take serious action against Putin
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Trump to Meet Putin in Budapest to Discuss War in Ukraine
US President Donald Trump said he would hold a second meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a yet-to-be determined date aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-16/trump-to-speak-with-putin-on-thursday-ahead-of-zelenskiy-visit
22 days ago
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This is the problem with the conversation on supplies to Ukraine - too much discussion of silver bullet solutions that then have insufficient follow up Was the same with jet fighters and Patriot missiles
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22 days ago
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Pascal
Just like the US, Europe is massively dependent on China for various critical minerals In the near future China could try to influence us by strangling supply, just as Russia did with gas
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-china-...
23 days ago
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Just like the US, Europe is massively dependent on China for various critical minerals In the near future China could try to influence us by strangling supply, just as Russia did with gas
pascallth.substack.com/p/the-china-...
23 days ago
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So we should win the war in Ukraine before this can happen
add a skeleton here at some point
23 days ago
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