UK-EU talks are in a bad spot Simply a reminder that there is no good, stable outcome for us outside the EU

Ukraine shouldn't focus too much on Hungary for accession purposes Orban is a loud-mouth but he mostly backs down when truly isolated (they barely put up a fight on last EU sanctions package) Better to worry about convincing France, Poland and the Netherlands

*Europe faces forever war www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...

⚡️ 'She wasn't afraid of the bombs' — Kherson locals in awe over Angelina Jolie's visit. The visit caused a stir not only in Kherson but across Ukraine, with people eager to learn more her visit to one of the most dangerous parts of the country.

Latest blog this week A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...

We should ban algorithmic feeds on social media, whose costs far outweigh the advantages

One reason why we can't bet on Russian economic collapse - there are other powers with a vested interest in avoiding that outcome

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: “The danger posed by Russia will not end when the war in Ukraine ends. “For the foreseeable future, Russia will remain a destabilizing force in Europe and the world.”

I think few people other than specialists see the EU as a framework of rules (and many alliances are also frameworks of rules anyway, even if less binding) International alliance vs community of values is probably the differentiating factor in most cases

In France the political right condensed this contradiction into a single concept they call 'islamo-leftism' - the logical end point of a belief that your opponents are extreme in every way you dislike, ultimately guilty of accepting all 'degenerate' people and beliefs

You might think this is bad for America's outlook but there are self-driving taxis in San Francisco so who can really say

When a democrat starts to lose, they reach out to their critics to win back voters When autocrats think they might lose - an act they consider inherently illegitimate - the repression increases

A much more realistic assessment of the battle for Pokrovsk than the typical pro-Ukraine accounts, which count only Russian losses as if this were the only factor The situation is dire and we're lying to ourselves by believing the defense is impregnable

It is really quite important for at least one of these countries to successfully join in the near future No country has joined the EU since 2013. The EU is losing the practice of enlargement and existing member states are becoming foreign to the concept www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Hungary's election next year is going to be a nightmare of electoral manipulation as Orban pulls every lever to prevent the popular vote from disrupting his hold on power

Labour out of the danger zone. Tories still on the precipice

Latest blog this week A few thoughts on the Dutch elections and the risk of getting swept up in the euphoria of the moment pascallth.substack.com/p/the-dutch-...

At least someone will say it www.thetimes.com/world/europe...

SUPERINTENDANT JOHN LOVELESS BRITISH TRANSPORT POLICE: Two arrested 32 year old male, black British national 35 year old male, British national, "of Caribbean descent" Both were born in the UK 4 of those attacked discharged

French politics is so bizarre right now, yesterday a tax was voted through with the support of the far-right, centre-left and a centrist party, against the opposition of the far-left, centre-right and other centrist parties www.bfmtv.com/economie/eco...

@robinwigglesworth.ft.com thanks for the shout-out on FTAV this morning!

New poll puts Macron at 11% popularity That's total, not net Reaches the same record low as Hollande

In my latest blog this week, I try to unpack the different ways that people talk about the feasibility of the UK rejoining the EU pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk...

Pretty close for the top spot but looks like centrist D66 might just take it from the far-right

At that level probably the total population would also fall, or at least stall

Dutch elections today Lots of polling movement in the last few months but the choice will likely come down to another right-wing coalition including the far-right or a coalition between centre-right and centre-left

In my latest blog this week, I try to unpack the different ways that people talk about the feasibility of the UK rejoining the EU pascallth.substack.com/p/can-the-uk...

Should have gone to Poland www.dw.com/en/italian-c...

Combining this with FPTP will be less a democratic election and more a spin on the roulette wheel to see who comes out on top

Anyone who knows Ukraine and Ukrainians knows that the will to keep fighting is bottom-up, not top-down

Britain in 2029 as a fun mixture of Spain and France

Obvious focus on Labour here but that's a big drop for the Tories too

Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result: PC: 47.4% (+19.0) REF: 36.0% (+34.2) LAB: 11.0% (-34.9) CON: 2.0% (-15.3) GRN: 1.5% (+1.5) LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2) GWL: 0.3% (+0.3) UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2) Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.

Our absence now from European Council summits still gets me Real decisions being made by a gathering of leaders from almost all of Europe on our continent's attitude towards Ukraine, defence, the economy, migration and climate And Britain isn't there Undeniable geopolitical failure

Movement on Russia sanctions this morning 🇺🇸US sanctions on energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft 🇪🇺EU sanctions on LNG imports, more shadow fleet and some Chinese entities trading Russian oil www.reuters.com/world/china/...

At last some serious numbers

Big news from Sweden: A memorandum of understanding has been signed with Ukraine for the sale of up to 150 Gripen fighter jets

NEW Economist/YouGov Oct 17-20: Ukraine aid 35% of Americans want to increase U.S. military aid to Ukraine, a record high since our polls began asking in Sep 2022 21% want to decrease or stop U.S. military aid to Ukraine, the lowest share in three years today.yougov.com/politics/art...

Too focused on silver bullet solutions, too reliant on America, too afraid of Russia - the Tomahawks debate is everything wrong with support for Ukraine pascallth.substack.com/p/the-tomaha...

Was sceptical of Greens score in other polls but here it's a credible pollster Perhaps a 4-way split was too easy and what British politics really needs is a 5-way split under FPTP

Too focused on silver bullet solutions, too reliant on America, too afraid of Russia - the Tomahawks debate is everything wrong with support for Ukraine pascallth.substack.com/p/the-tomaha...

An odd piece that doesn't really engage with the main obstacle to discreet and effective Russia-Europe talks: Russia itself It even acknowledges that there have been multiple attempts at European outreach since 2022 These failed because Russia isn't interested in talking to us

A tough read, but a necessary one for all those who thought Trump was moving in favour of Ukraine www.ft.com/content/7960...

The narrative that Ukraine is actually winning and time is against Russia is contradicted by Ukraine's clear willingness to agree to an immediate ceasefire on the current frontline I'd like Ukraine to be winning but the frontline is overwhelmingly moving in one direction

You can save yourself a lot of trouble following the twists and turns if you just assume Trump will never take serious action against Putin www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This is the problem with the conversation on supplies to Ukraine - too much discussion of silver bullet solutions that then have insufficient follow up Was the same with jet fighters and Patriot missiles

Just like the US, Europe is massively dependent on China for various critical minerals In the near future China could try to influence us by strangling supply, just as Russia did with gas pascallth.substack.com/p/the-china-...

Just like the US, Europe is massively dependent on China for various critical minerals In the near future China could try to influence us by strangling supply, just as Russia did with gas pascallth.substack.com/p/the-china-...

So we should win the war in Ukraine before this can happen