Important investigation of operations by shadowy firms based in the Baltic states to keep Russian shadow fleet fuelled.

Short @economist.com piece on what Orbán is trying to do vis-a-vis Ukraine through the Visegrad countries, with comments from me. Orbán's trip to DC needs to be seen through the lens of the 2026 Hungarian elections, and him trying to regain support domestically. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

The EU’s role in defence hinges largely on the level of defence funding in the next EU budget. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @lscazzieri.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/bxYKhe4

Read the paper here: buff.ly/LOb9lqM

🎙️ @zecsaky.bsky.social, @benansell.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social discuss the rise of European #populism and what moderates should or shouldn't do to stem its rise in the latest #CERpodcast. 🎙️ Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/qT7A3eF

In case anyone was getting euphoric about the Dutch election results, here's a useful corrective from my colleagues @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social . In sum - the likely coalition will be better than last time, but the far right vote is still rising, though more fragmented.

Important @foreignaffairs.com piece by Tatiana Mitrova & Sergei Vakulenko - who really know how the Russian oil & gas industry functions & are very sober in assessing impact of Ukrainian strikes & Western sanctions. Tl;dr: not collapsing, but eroding badly. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/slow-...

A shocking illustration of the extent to which UK universities’ dependency on China for students paying overseas fees exposes them to Chinese state pressure to restrict academic freedom.

This is crucial: UK & allies need weapons & tactics for this new kind of warfare. Ukraine now has more to teach us than to learn from us - a reversal of the situation in 2022.

EU-China relations are deteroriating because of China's overcapacities and support for Russia's war in Ukraine. The UK is, for now, on a different track. @cerianbond.bsky.social long-read delves into the various dimensions of Channel divergence/convergence on China. www.cer.eu/publications...

Excellent investigation of Russian misuse of international investigatory & judicial machinery.

"Feeding into the narrative that the EU is failing with #migration returns risks making us vulnerable to far-right discourses. My recommendation to the Cypriot presidency is to focus on the mechanisms that we already have" - @pzlotnik.bsky.social (@sciencespo-cee.bsky.social) at our #CypriotPPC /11

Returning to the #CypriotPPC for our secondary panel discussion, focusing on the EU as a global power 👉 Featuring insights from Clélia Chevrier Kolačko (Ambassador of France to Cyprus), Revecca Pedi (University of Macedonia) and @cerianbond.bsky.social (@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social) /13

"Europe must defend its digital sovereignty by diversifying suppliers and through coordinated #investments in strategic sectors" - Clélia Chevrier Kolačko, Ambassador of France to Cyprus, during our #CypriotPPC /14

"The #EU is an order of its own inside a multi-order world - a community based on unity and prosperity. Nowadays, European citizens forget this and take the European way of life for granted." - Revecca Pedi, Associate Professor, University of Macedonia at the #CypriotPPC /16

"The real danger in Europe is the growing distance between how the EU sees itself and how others see it. The gap between the two perspectives is widening, expanding also within the Union," says Revecca Pedi at our #CypriotPPC 🔗 www.youtube.com/live/zyMHvDS... /17

"The EU has been the major economic & military donor for #Ukraine. Yet, Europe has not been able to stop the Russians from advancing in Ukraine. The EU is not a global power; it is not even a regional power." - @cerianbond.bsky.social (@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social) at today's #CypriotPPC /18

"The EU has to fix the problem of #unanimity in its foreign policy. It must also set realistic objectives and provide ambitious means to reach them", says @cerianbond.bsky.social, Deputy Director, @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. Follow our #CypriotPPC online🔗 www.youtube.com/live/zyMHvDS... /19

Useful thread by my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague @armida.bsky.social on what the Dutch elections do & don't mean. Far right fractured; it didn't disappear, & it influenced policies of mainstream parties. Next govt will probably be more engaged/influential in Europe than its predecessor.

Leaving a very rainy London for @tepsa.bsky.social Pre-Presidency Conference in Cyprus. Looking forward to discussing whether the EU can be a global power, among other things. My message: if the EU isn't at the (top) table, it will be on the menu, with China, Russia & US sharpening their knives.

Absolutely right. That's DFID abolished & the aid budget slashed; BBC World Service shrunk; and British Council in crisis. Leaving a nice vacuum for China & other geopolitical rivals to fill.

Great paper by @johnspringford.bsky.social , which every Labour minister from the PM downwards should read. You can't beat full-fat populism with populist-lite policies.

In the wake of last August’s Paris summit the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social released a policy brief entitled: Can Europe Save Ukraine – and itself – from Putin and Trump? by @cerianbond.bsky.social 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 buff.ly/NG4LBfm

Fair-minded discussion by @tomcalver.bsky.social on the Brexit impact. I'm more worried about the trade data though - goods exports volumes declining since 2019 is a big problem, and finance and transport services have significantly lagged other advanced economies. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

🎙️ The key element is continued help for #Ukraine with hard tools to be able to defend ourselves and to defend Europe, because that’s the reality that we have. Iuliia Osmolovska @globsec.bsky.social told @cerianbond.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast.🎙️ Listen here: buff.ly/FzrQEoW

Bon chance. It’s a very lovely place; amazing to think Adenauer ran the Federal Republic from Lake Como over the summer months for many years. He was a real European.

Latest entry in my “It’s a dirty job but…” gallery: Lake Como from Villa La Collina, Adenauer’s former holiday home, where I’ll be taking part in 2 days of discussions of the end of globalisation, EU-UK co-operation, the challenge of China, &c. In case of Angst, I’ll just admire the view.

#China is a systemic rival of the EU & the UK. They must draw the policy conclusions from that. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social. Read here: buff.ly/DQE6W7R

🎙️ Are there other things that EU allies can do that might create better conditions for a successful negotiation from a Ukrainian perspective? @cerianbond.bsky.social asked Donald Jensen @jhu.edu & Iuliia Osmolovska @globsec.bsky.social in this #CERpodcast episode.🎙️ Listen here: buff.ly/FzrQEoW

Important paper. It will give free-trade, free-market absolutists conniptions, but thanks to China & the US, we're not living in the era of the liberal trading order any longer.

The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.

European governments should stop thinking that Xi Jinping will eventually level the playing field. 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social. Read here: buff.ly/DQE6W7R

What have you learned through your careers about the Russian approach to negotiating? @cerianbond.bsky.social asked Donald Jensen @jhu.edu and Iuliia Osmolovska @globsec.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast episode. Listen here: buff.ly/FzrQEoW

Excellent episode with👌 outstanding people having both knowledge and experience on mindblowing elements of Russian negotiating tactics. Fine to have an expert group from the US, UK and Ukraine for insights and perspectives, but do miss an expert on China, noted as a key player for peace in Ukraine.

It was a pleasure to record this podcast with Iuliia Osmolovska & Don Jensen - two people with complementary experience of Russian negotiating tactics, one having studied with the Russians in St Petersburg when it was still 'friendly' territory for Ukrainians, & one having negotiated with the USSR.

Since Trump isn't going to sign a peace deal with Russia, & Putin wdn't stick to it even if he did, this is a rather empty offer. The question is what are UA's Weatern partners willing to do to ensure UA success absent a peace deal? This was my answer: www.cer.eu/publications...

European strategies for dealing with #China and the Indo-Pacific region are vague about objectives and even vaguer about means. 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/EJXAsaz

I think this is complacent. China's economic model, w vast over-capacity & subsidies enabling it to drive competitors out of business is essentially an imperial economy: consumers & raw materials in the periphery, advanced tech in the metropolis. 1/2

Putin keeps stringing Trump along while continuing to attack Ukraine. You’d think a US president wouldn’t want to keep being humiliated by Putin. Alas.

I wish I could say I was shocked, but unfortunately I thought this was the near certain outcome once Trump & Putin had had their phonecall. Trump's position on the war is not "capricious": he consistently parrots Putin's talking points on the inevitability of Russian victory & Ukrainian concessions.

To be fair, I wonder how many Ukrainians, especially officials, think "We will get Tomahawks" when they hear Trump say he is considering giving them Tomahawks, & how many think "He will not give us Tomahawks"? Likewise with sanctions: how many times has Trump threatened "sanctions in 2 weeks"?

#China’s rising stock in the global south comes at the expense of Western countries that are reducing development assistance. 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/EJXAsaz

A good moment for other EU states to remind Orban that Hungary is a signatory to the Rome Statute, & there is an outstanding ICC warrant against Putin. Meanwhile, any European country that values its sovereignty & security needs to pile resources into defending Ukraine & defeating Russia.

The UK’s trade deficit with China has more than doubled since 2019. On his September visit to Beijing, the UK trade & industry secretary raised “issues that undermine fair competition”. But do the Chinese authorities care? 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 New paper by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/EJXAsaz

Thank you to @cerianbond.bsky.social & John Hemmings @congeostrategy.bsky.social for speaking at our @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) hybrid launch of 'China and Europe: Can the EU and the UK find a shared strategy?' in London yesterday.

China’s combination of indigenous military technological advances and imported know-how is a threat to its neighbours. 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇬🇧 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) UK & Ireland policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/EJXAsaz

Serious read of the day - @cerianbond.bsky.social on Europe / China relations. Conclusion - "embrace the idea of systemic rivalry and work to ensure that European liberal, democracy – battered though it looks at present – shows its superiority" www.cer.eu/sites/defaul...

Very good, particularly agree that strategies to date have offered little, I also think as well as the thoughts I offered, that we can't carry on just saying climate change as an area of cooperation. We have to also try to thicken other ties at least for mutual understanding.

Timely report by CER and Konrad Adenauer Foundation on how EU + U.K. might handle China. Shame no one from HMG takes part in any discussions on shaping Europe wide policy on this key geopolitical issue As we see in ridiculous petty party point scoring right now we are getting pigtails in a twist