Time for more Ukrainian sanctions, I think, to ensure that Russia can't profit from Trump's idiotic war with Iran (or at least, not more than it already has).

A reminder that the idea that Crimea is 'naturally' Russian ignores the fact that Stalin deported the indigenous Crimean Tatar population, & that Putin is now doing his best to destroy their identity again.

At some point I assume that Trump will tell us that the US has done bad things to Russian firms too. It's very unlikely that he will actually punish Putin for attacking US interests - he's never done it before, despite having every reason to do so.

Peskov is, for once, quite right. It would be entirely against European interests for Ukraine's partners to try to act as mediators between Kyiv & Moscow. Their single focus should be on helping Ukraine to defeat Russia. The problem is that their participation is not direct or large-scale enough.

Not a Merkel fan, but in any case, the EU shd stop thinking about a ‘mediator’ - to Putin, that’s just a sign of its weakness. Von der Leyden said “Ukraine is one of us”, & she was right - not just morally, but strategically. The EU’s msg to Putin shd be that UA’s fight is our fight, & RU won’t win.

@cerianbond.bsky.social of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank devoted to making the EU work better, has warned a Farage clause will cloud any fresh start and probably would be a waste of time as a Prime Minister Farage would simply refuse to pay any financial compensation. buff.ly/gsdnros

It's astonishing that the Americans have seemingly paid so little attention to what's been happening in Ukraine for >4 years & seem to have learned so little about drones & counter-drones from their Ukrainian partners, while Russia & Ukraine have helped each other with tech, tactics & intelligence.

Excellent point. It would be particularly interesting to know what lessons China is drawing from the war: is it that starting wars against weaker opponents doesn't always end well? Or that traditional armed forces struggle to defeat drones? Or that the US under Trump is likely to abandon its allies?

Key point, which I have stressed for years: Ukraine is more important to us than it is to Russia. European security depends now on Ukraine's security and its ability to defeat Russia's aggression. Kallas is the 1st European leader I have heard make that point so explicitly.

And if relations can't be restored, it would also mean we were better able to contribute to defending Europe if Trump refused to do so (as seems likely)

Very good point - and an excellent article on economic warfare in @duncanweldon.bsky.social 's next post.

Lots of attention again on Chinese investment in the EU. I think most miss the most important observation. Chinese FDI in the EU is tiny, a fraction of what it was 10 years ago. But EU's trade deficit with China is ballooning, up another 30% this year. The implications should be obvious. 1/

Smart thread by @sandertordoir.bsky.social on why the current approach to Chinese investment in the EU won’t magically deliver localised production or tech advances. Chinese FDI is low, and trade defences and localised production/JVs go hand in hand 🤝

“I don't think the fall of #Orban will lead to an immediate change in EU policy towards Israel, because it still has other countries more or less on its side”, @cerianbond.bsky.social told @thenewarab.bsky.social. www.newarab.com/analysis/wha...

Heading off to Washington for a week of meetings culminating in the @brookings.edu @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social @swp-berlin.org US-European Forum on Global Issues. My main focus will be on Russia-Ukraine, US-China & NATO, but Gulf crisis & Eur disagreements w US will influence all those issues.

All sensible, and in keeping with my and @elisabettaco.bsky.social's recommendations here www.cer.eu/insights/ene... www.ft.com/content/bbc9...

Useful reminder from my colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social of how much is at stake for both Hungary & the EU, following Magyar's election victory.

Another obstacle to deepening EU-UK economic ties is that both sides remain hamstrung by narrow political constraints. “Both are transactional in their approach to the relationship, and miss the bigger picture,” says @cerianbond.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.

If the #Hormuz strait remains closed, European governments should avoid the huge fossil fuel subsidies they provided in 2022, argue @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social in their new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight. Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

Exactly.

"One can be cautiously positive," @cerianbond.bsky.social, deputy director of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social in London, told @en.france24.com. "But not everything is going to change." buff.ly/FUN0epA

My @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social with excellent analysis of the implications of Peter Magyar's victory. Relations with the rest of the EU are likely to improve, but it won't all be plain sailing.

Alex Stubb at @brookings.edu says Ukraine has killed 35,000 Russian troops since December, at a kill ratio of 5:1. If he's right, that wd mean that Ukraine is winning the war of attrition. But can it sustain its performance? That depends on financial & other support from UA's European partners.

Finnish President Stubb tells @brookings.edu Strait of Hormuz has become "a de facto nuclear weapon", thanks to economic impact of closure. He doesn't see quick respite to the war, & says Iran holds most of the cards. @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social researchers on this: www.cer.eu/insights/ene...

The scale of China’s dominance and the risks it poses to industrial and defence supply chains are simply too large to ignore. 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @sandertordoir.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/LqGEKBN

Extremely important and timely piece by my colleagues @elisabettaco.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social .

@cerianbond.bsky.social joined other experts to discuss 'Can #NATO survive the Iran war?' for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social

Thought I was the only person on here not in a state of euphoria, but @alemanno.bsky.social , who follows these issues much more closely than I do, is also cautious, given Magyar’s Fidesz origins. I’d add - Orbán’s partnership w Putin leaves RU w plenty of leverage to disrupt HU econ & politically.

Sanchez isn’t wrong - but it’s a bit rich for a man who refuses to spend more than 2% of GDP on defence to exhort the rest of Europe to do something that would involve spending a lot more than that. If he wants a European army, he has to start investing in it - not tomorrow, but today!

I was pleased to be one of the experts. A lot of consensus among us: the machinery of NATO will survive, but the mutual trust with the US will not. The US & Europe will both be the weaker for it.

Such bad luck that Russia's history is so "markedly anti-Russian".

This is disturbingly close to Stalin asking Churchill "How many divisions does the Pope have?". Last time I looked, the Catholic Church was still there; the Soviet Union (despite Putin's best endeavours) was not.

Just over 24 hours to go! Time to finalise your application for the Clara Marina O'Donnell fellowship at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social .

No idea if Hungarian voters will be convinced by Vance's endorsement of Orban. But they'll know he's describing the man who has maintained Hungary's dependency on Russian oil as a model for European energy independence, & the man who has stolen EU funds from Hungarians as an exemplar of governance.

Astonishing that Moldova hadn't done that years ago!

This thread by @cergrant.bsky.social still looks good. Only point that might have changed over the last 2 wks is Zelenskyy parlaying Ukraine's counter-drone expertise into defence export deals with Gulf states - potentially enabling UA to fund more arms production & offset cuts in US supplies.

The US administration seems not to have foreseen that #Iran would attack facilities in the Gulf states with drones, and reportedly turned down a 2025 Ukrainian offer of counter-#drone technology. CER insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social & @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here:

Why does the phrase "I have a cunning plan..." come into my mind?

CER among just handful of first rate think tanks...connects the informed and enlightening with the sober and impartial, a wider European view with deep understanding of national politics. Absolute tribute to intellect and skill of @cergrant.bsky.social ..He deserves a rest but a hard act to follow

Spread the word. I've had the privilege of working for @cergrant.bsky.social, @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social's founding director, for 13 years. After 28 years in charge, he will step down at the end of the year. It will take someone with outstanding qualities to replace him. Details on our website.

Students/recent graduates in political science, IR & related subjects: at a loose end this weekend? This is almost your last chance to write your application for the Clara Marina O'Donnell fellowship - a great first step on the career ladder for think-tankers & foreign policy wonks.

Excellent analysis of NATO's problems. Tl;dr: Trump is the immediate problem, but his leaving office won't end the problems. Europe needs to plan its defence on the basis that US help will be welcome, but not guaranteed. I'd add: which makes integrating Ukraine into European defence asap vital.

An important warning from @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social : Trump doesn't have to withdraw the US from NATO to make the alliance ineffective. Europeans must not be complacent.

Great thread by my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social ahead of the Hungarian elections. Will these elections be free & fair? No. Could the opposition win? Yes. Could Orban stop them gaining effective power? Also yes. A lot to play for, for the EU, Ukraine, & their enemies.

“Excluding Türkiye from SAFE means that there is ultimately going to be a mismatch between the European threat map and its institutional map,” @senemaydndzgit.bsky.social told the #CERpodcast. Listen here: buff.ly/MEKSCri

Great reporting, providing proof of something that was easy to infer from Szijjarto's behaviour, but easy for him to deny. Any scope for another EU member to arrest him for espionage?

Exactly right. Ukraine & Europe feel obliged to keep pretending the diplomatic games mean something, for fear that Trump will give Russia even more help than he is currently giving. But Putin's genocidal aims haven't changed, & must still be defeated. That means less talk & more action fm Europe.

Ten days since we published this, Trump is still not considering wider effects of the war. If he carried out his threats to hit Iranian power plants & desalination plants, those wd be war crimes, & wd invite retaliation against US allies in the Gulf, with catastrophic impacts regionally & globally.

“When looking at EU-Türkiye relations today, how do you see the political dynamics on both sides and these bilateral disputes shaping the relationship?” @thomasmaddock.bsky.social asked @galipdalay.bsky.social & @senemaydndzgit.bsky.social in the new #CERpodcast. 🎙️ Listen here:

Useful summary of a worrying report on the rule of law in the EU.