Astonishing that Moldova hadn't done that years ago!

This thread by @cergrant.bsky.social still looks good. Only point that might have changed over the last 2 wks is Zelenskyy parlaying Ukraine's counter-drone expertise into defence export deals with Gulf states - potentially enabling UA to fund more arms production & offset cuts in US supplies.

The US administration seems not to have foreseen that #Iran would attack facilities in the Gulf states with drones, and reportedly turned down a 2025 Ukrainian offer of counter-#drone technology. CER insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social & @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here:

Why does the phrase "I have a cunning plan..." come into my mind?

CER among just handful of first rate think tanks...connects the informed and enlightening with the sober and impartial, a wider European view with deep understanding of national politics. Absolute tribute to intellect and skill of @cergrant.bsky.social ..He deserves a rest but a hard act to follow

Spread the word. I've had the privilege of working for @cergrant.bsky.social, @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social's founding director, for 13 years. After 28 years in charge, he will step down at the end of the year. It will take someone with outstanding qualities to replace him. Details on our website.

Students/recent graduates in political science, IR & related subjects: at a loose end this weekend? This is almost your last chance to write your application for the Clara Marina O'Donnell fellowship - a great first step on the career ladder for think-tankers & foreign policy wonks.

Excellent analysis of NATO's problems. Tl;dr: Trump is the immediate problem, but his leaving office won't end the problems. Europe needs to plan its defence on the basis that US help will be welcome, but not guaranteed. I'd add: which makes integrating Ukraine into European defence asap vital.

An important warning from @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social : Trump doesn't have to withdraw the US from NATO to make the alliance ineffective. Europeans must not be complacent.

Great thread by my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social ahead of the Hungarian elections. Will these elections be free & fair? No. Could the opposition win? Yes. Could Orban stop them gaining effective power? Also yes. A lot to play for, for the EU, Ukraine, & their enemies.

“Excluding Türkiye from SAFE means that there is ultimately going to be a mismatch between the European threat map and its institutional map,” @senemaydndzgit.bsky.social told the #CERpodcast. Listen here: buff.ly/MEKSCri

Great reporting, providing proof of something that was easy to infer from Szijjarto's behaviour, but easy for him to deny. Any scope for another EU member to arrest him for espionage?

Exactly right. Ukraine & Europe feel obliged to keep pretending the diplomatic games mean something, for fear that Trump will give Russia even more help than he is currently giving. But Putin's genocidal aims haven't changed, & must still be defeated. That means less talk & more action fm Europe.

Ten days since we published this, Trump is still not considering wider effects of the war. If he carried out his threats to hit Iranian power plants & desalination plants, those wd be war crimes, & wd invite retaliation against US allies in the Gulf, with catastrophic impacts regionally & globally.

“When looking at EU-Türkiye relations today, how do you see the political dynamics on both sides and these bilateral disputes shaping the relationship?” @thomasmaddock.bsky.social asked @galipdalay.bsky.social & @senemaydndzgit.bsky.social in the new #CERpodcast. 🎙️ Listen here:

Useful summary of a worrying report on the rule of law in the EU.

Excellent piece.

I agree with @lukecoffey.bsky.social . What we have seen over the last decade is that whenever it comes to Russia & dealing with Putin, Trump goes beyond hopeless naivety to willful blindness to hostile acts by Russia. He would rather bash Zelenskyy than make Putin pay a price for his actions.

If the war ends without regime change in #Iran, the Iranian people will continue to suffer both from continued repression and the consequences of US and Israeli attacks. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social & @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here:

Europe can best insulate itself against the economic consequences of any conflict in the Gulf by accelerating its energy transition away from fossil fuels. @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social and @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/I42gf7q

As the war in Iran and broader region continues to evolve, read @cerianbond.bsky.social and @thomasmaddock.bsky.social‘s timely analysis on the short and long term winners and losers. buff.ly/I42gf7q

I recommend @armida.bsky.social 's policy brief. Western European gov'ts, including the UK's, are generally failing to explain how serious the threat to our security is, or how important it is to invest in defence, not just as a job-creation/growth-promotion tool, but to deter Russian aggression.

The attack on #Iran by the US and Israel is good news for Russia but bad news for Europe, including Ukraine, and ultimately for the US itself. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social and @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/I42gf7q

While casualties in the Gulf states have so far been limited, these states will suffer economically if the war continues for much longer. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social and @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/I42gf7q

Steinmeier has some political errors of his own to apologise for, but it’s hard to disagree with this condemnation of Trump’s Iran policy.

Hoewel China ongeveer de helft van zijn olie-invoer en een derde van de gasimport uit de Golfregio haalt, kan het land op langere termijn voordeel halen uit de oorlog in Iran. Dat stellen @cerianbond.bsky.social en @thomasmaddock.bsky.social van het @cerianbond.bsky.social. buff.ly/h2OfnxT

These two things may both be true. In fact, one could argue both parties have been complacent about the state of UK defence since Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. If not then, at least since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 - we've had 12 wasted years when we could have prepared for & deterred Putin.

#IranWar: Who wins and who loses? By @cerianbond.bsky.social & @thomasmaddock.bsky.social | @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

I've lost count of the times the West has 'bribed' Lukashenko to improve human rights in Belarus (I was involved in one effort in 1999). It always fails, & he always locks up some more critics to be ready for the next round. The additional error this time is to make Russian sanctions evasion easier.

The attack on #Iran has handed Russia a valuable propaganda tool to deflect criticism of its war against #Ukraine. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social and @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/I42gf7q

US president Donald Trump seems not to have considered what the wider effects of war on #Iran might be, or its winners and losers; Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not care. New CER insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social and @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/I42gf7q

The Peston show asked me to update my back-of-the-envelope estimates of the benefits of the UK-EU reset. Take a look

Interesting news from Russia. Like Prigozhin, Remeslo seems to have had a revelation. He hasn't turned into a pro-Western liberal (as his comments on how much better Russia would be doing in Ukraine if Putin listened to criticism shows). But he can see the damage from Putin's current policies. 1/2

Thank you, Ian, for those words and for the moral clarity Ukraine will win, our support defines when

The pipeline issue gives Orbán something concrete to talk about after years of pledging to keep Hungary out of the war and backing Trump’s plans to end it, said @zecsaky.bsky.social, senior research fellow at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

On the US-Israeli war on Iran, @thomasmaddock.bsky.social & I look at winners & losers. Spoiler: the US isn't a winner. I'm reminded of Croesus, King of Lydia: the Oracle told him if he made war on Persia he wd destroy a great empire, so he attacked - & the Lydian empire was destroyed.

Russia saw its biggest weekly oil revenue jump since 2023. Rising prices from the Iran war and the 30-day US sanctions relief drove the spike. Russian oil prices for India hit a record. The Gulf war fills Moscow's budget while Washington bleeds near the Strait of Hormuz, Exilenova+ reports.

An argument simple enough that even Trump could understand it - but he doesn’t. I would add - Ukraine’s victory would also make Europe much safer. That’s why we should be investing even more in ensuring it, rather than hoping that Ukraine can keep going with the current level of support.

Trump’s wish to do favours to Putin nailed again by @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social .

Ossoff: "After years of this president trashing our allies, we learned today that the Danish govt was preparing military options to defeat a potential American invasion of Greenland just months ago. The president has treated our allies like they don't matter then demanded they come to his aid."

Very good thread on the outsize benefits Trump has given Lukashenka in return for the release & expulsion from Belarus of political prisoners.

A disgusting lie from Hegseth. If the US had really depleted its stockpiles for Ukraine's benefit, we would all be much safer now. Instead we have Trump doing all he can to help the Russian economy recover by lifting sanctions on RU oil sales, while blaming Ukrainians for defending themselves.

Aid to Ukraine from 2022-2026 was a rounding error. We used more in the first two weeks of the Iran war than we provided in the 4 years of aid to Ukraine.

On 2028-2034 multi-annual financial framework, Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze asks about enlargement-related funding. @piotrserafin.bsky.social says he can’t predict when UA or W Balkan countries might join, but MFF would have to be amended if one or more countries accede to EU.

At @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Brussels Conference, @piotrserafin.bsky.social says stronger anti-fraud measures including the conditionality regulation will be part of the next EU multi-annual financial framework: no watering down to make life easier for those in power.

At @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Brussels Conference, @piotrserafin.bsky.social says it wd be in interest of EU & UK to have UK as partner in SAFE programme & broader security co-operation. Up to UK how far beyond security dimension it wants to go in relations with EU.

At @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Brussels Conference @piotrserafin.bsky.social says the European Commission has to become more agile, in order to do more with less. That’s goal of the current review, with 15 work streams on how the Commission works & prioritises. Last reform was under in 2004.

At @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Brussels Conference, @piotrserafin.bsky.social says we can’t think about European security without thinking about European defence industry.

At @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Brussels Conference, @piotrserafin.bsky.social warns of risks from disinformation that aims to turns Europeans against each other, including attempts to create hostility to Ukraine & Ukrainians. Freedom of speech shouldn’t be for bots.

At @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Brussels Conference, @piotrserafin.bsky.social warns that forces inside & outside the EU, including the US administration, are trying to undermine EU unity. We can’t allow foreign interference - which destroyed Poland in the 18th century.