🌍 With two months until Hungary's next parliamentary election, time to take a look at what the foreign policy offer of Tisza, the main opposition party leading the polls ahead of Fidesz, would mean for the EU. Read my piece published by the New Politics Project of @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/tisz...

My new essay on how authoritarian China defied skeptics to become a global innovation leader

Applications are now open for the 13th Clara Marina O’Donnell fellowship, full details below. Start date: October 2026 for six months Pay: London Living Wage Applications in by: 09/04/26 @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social @brookings.edu @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social buff.ly/3vV64SZ

It's also not new - the US has been exporting ideologies since the end of WW2. Europe is just it's latest target, and nativism the new ideology to export and propagate globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

I said this would happen - to anyone's who's been following this White House's ideological turn it was obvious this would eventually happen. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

For the FES, I wrote a short brief about how mainstream party strategies have fueled far-right success. They move toward more anti-immigration positions to win voters back. This does not work, but shifts public opinion to the right. Parties then react to shifts in public opinion. A vicious cycle.

Ondanks het onderwerp, toch bijzonder om dit interview aan @nrc.nl te mogen geven. We hebben het over de toekomst van de NAVO, de rol van Europa op het wereldtoneel, en waarom meegaan met de gedachtegang van Trump Europa verder ondermijnt. Dank @arnolddegroot.bsky.social. www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

Great to be back on BBC New The Context last night, to unpack the informal EU Council and Greenland.

Welcome @james-r-green.bsky.social! Do follow my new CER colleague for all things tech policy.

As I've written before, people don’t trust institutions because institutions aren't doing the job. Democracy rests on three pillars: Verification, Deliberation, Accountability, which can be understood as being substantial, performative, and simulated. demos.co.uk/research/ver...

We’ve spent years trying to fact-check our way out of this, and it failed. Democratic decay isn’t about bad information versus good information, it’s about the collapse of the systems that turn information into reality. If every bot and Russian troll vanished tomorrow, the rot would still be there.

🧵 @jburnmurdoch.ft.com is spot on about the conditions in his FT piece. Liberal democracy held it together thanks to growth, good demographics, and the promise of a better future. Those days are gone, and that’s the "why" behind the erosion. However...

Europa kende crisis na crisis -financiële crisis, corona, invasie van Rusland. Dus er is niet veel capaciteit om vooruit te denken, ziet @armida.bsky.social. Toch is dat noodzakelijk, om afbrokkeling van de EU en NAVO te voorkomen.

Ondanks het onderwerp, toch bijzonder om dit interview aan @nrc.nl te mogen geven. We hebben het over de toekomst van de NAVO, de rol van Europa op het wereldtoneel, en waarom meegaan met de gedachtegang van Trump Europa verder ondermijnt. Dank @arnolddegroot.bsky.social. www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

Attn news commentators: Trump saying he could use force to obtain Greenland but won’t is not Trump saying he won’t use force to obtain Greenland. It is Trump using force as a threat to obtain Greenland. That is why he mentions it.

"We gaan nu mee in de retoriek van Trump, met zijn analyse van de veiligheidssituatie rond Groenland. Trump heeft het steeds over Russische en Chinese boten die rond de kust van Groenland zijn – die zijn er niet." Ik interviewde @armida.bsky.social voor @nrc.nl Opinie: www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

Trump coming for the North Sea next: "The UK sits on the North Sea, sits on all that oil, and they don't do anything with it. They don't allow the oil companies to drill."

Europe faces a pincer attack from White House ideologues backed by Silicon Valley and its far-right proxies. My op-ed for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

A strong episode overall thanks to @rynning.bsky.social's analysis, but this final part on minilateralism is especially important. The new energy put towards these formats show something is broken within NATO. They are not used to reinforce the alliance, but to push pol agendas through other means.

The past few days have underlined why it's problematic to go along with Trump's rationale - it assumes a basis of reason which is not there. My comments to the Washington Post www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Good moment to repost my paper from last year, mapping the cards Europe could play in response to US coercion. Most of them could be played via the anti-coercion instrument. Digital services charges and (de facto) export controls are the keys. ecfr.eu/publication/...

Natos trovärdighet sätts på spel när USA ifrågasätter en allierads suveränitet, varnar forskaren @armida.bsky.social. buff.ly/nWO76SX

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

"What possible scenarios can you see for a US takeover of #Greenland, whether that is political, economic or through military coercion?” @armida.bsky.social asked @rynning.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast 'Unpacking Europe' episode. Full episode here: buff.ly/jLyY2SW

🎙️ Listen to our new #CERpodcast ‘Unpacking Europe’ on the implications of the latest #Greenland crisis for the future direction of the #NATO alliance with @armida.bsky.social & @rynning.bsky.social. 🎙️ Listen here: buff.ly/3nsjpU4

For as long as Europe is limited by the military capabilities it can deploy independently of the US, security dependence will cloud any course of action or response to US policy that European leaders can consider wrote @armida.bsky.social in @theguardian.com.

The operation in Venezuela escalates the seriousness of the Trump administration’s threats to annex #Greenland, demonstrating the very real risks to sovereignty and security beyond ideology. buff.ly/6GmnosL

This is something I have been wondering about as well - not only putting NATO to the edge, but also the short attention span and threat of military action across the world (Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba, Colombia, Iran...) must overstretch even US military forces.

OR... does it in the medium-term just create a divide *within* Europe between those European NATO allies wanting to keep the US on board (the North/East), and those whose electorates see straight through that and are fed up with placating Trump (South)?

The tripwire force is finally here... But instead of being in Ukraine to deter Russia, it is within NATO territory to deter one NATO ally from violating another NATO ally's sovereignty. The world turned upside down.

🎙️ In our latest Unpacking Europe podcast @armida.bsky.social & @rynning.bsky.social discuss possible scenarios for a US takeover of Greenland and the consequences of this on the #NATO alliance.🎙️ Listen here: buff.ly/ZiqRiAP

Indeed, a remarkable discussion: bsky.app/profile/armi...

High stakes for Greenland and Denmark today, as Frederiksen & Nielsen meet Vance & Rubio. Super interesting conversation with @rynning.bsky.social about NATO's possible policy shifts to appease Trump's Arctic security concerns, and how minilaterals fill NATO's void. open.spotify.com/episode/24OZ...

''Als Europa druk wil uitoefenen op de VS kan het wijzen op de Amerikaanse schuld in Europa en Europese investeringen in de VS. Maar ook daar is het uitkijken voor escalatie met alleen maar verliezers'', zegt @louisevanschaik.bsky.social. www.bnr.nl/podcast/inhe...

Poland suffered a major cyberattack on its power grid at the end of December and "came very close to a blackout”, the government has revealed. “Everything points to Russian sabotage," says the digital affairs minister.

Superb line of questioning by @terischultz.bsky.social of the NATO Sec Gen - Rutte's refusal to publicly support Greenland or Denmark is so problematic for an SG who represents 32 allies, not just 1. I'd hope he is more robust in closed conversations with the US. www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIIp...

Nah. It is making France fear for its political clout in Europe and the world. As @claudmajor.bsky.social says in the piece, that says more about France than it does about Germany.

The US is putting a new world order on the table, one based on autocracy, the use of force, and nativism. For the transatlantic relationship, the result has been fusing threats to sovereignty with the promotion of far-right forces that are a threat to democracy, and pushing tech deregulation.

Fijn dat de SG zich ook even meldt.

US tech bosses are exerting leverage on EU regulators via Trump and Vance. But Europe isn’t powerless, and it isn’t alone writes @armida.bsky.social in @theguardian.com today.

Online hate and disinformation do not have easy solutions. But the Trump administration’s lies about European regulation are not about free speech. They are about power – preserving its own, promoting its far-right allies in Europe, and protecting its partners in Big Tech, writes David Kaye.

Slight change of focus from me but still highly relevant to security. Food security is well known, but the argicultural sector could also have a role in protecting CNI, freeing up capacity of the police and military.

"For much of the past century, the US fought wars to spread an ideology. Today, the ideology it seeks to propagate is nativism. In pursuit of this ideology, it declared war on its own residents by setting in motion ICE raids on the streets of American cities." globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

A good collection with some top people. Not new ideas per se, but that just proves how the policy recommendation is just the start of the process, navigating the *politics* is much, much harder.

I wrote about Carl Schmitt and how he came up with a theory specifically to counter US power. Which the Trump administration is now embracing.

The US is putting a new world order on the table, one based on autocracy, the use of force, and nativism. For the transatlantic relationship, the result has been fusing threats to sovereignty with the promotion of far-right forces that are a threat to democracy, and pushing tech deregulation.

My latest: should the darkest hour come and the #US uses military force to annex #Greenland🇬🇱, the essence of Article 5 and collective defense within #NATO would lose its meaning. Read the article:⬇️ @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social @isdp-sweden.bsky.social www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/t...

The attack on Venezuela wasn’t about drugs or democracy. It was about oil. With Trump, it’s always about oil. But that’s yesterday’s obsession. China meanwhile is embracing renewables and winning the future. And that’s a problem. My latest for @politico.eu. www.politico.eu/article/the-...

„What [Europe] needs are genuine allies who can help counter the alternative order the US is putting on the table. They can be found in Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea and other remaining liberal democracies.“ And fast.

Europe faces a pincer attack from White House ideologues backed by Silicon Valley and its far-right proxies. My op-ed for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...