Leuk om het samen met @kysia.bsky.social over de NAVO en transatlantische relaties te hebben bij @nieuwsuur.nl. www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIL_...

So great to see @zecsaky.bsky.social writing for the @financialtimes.com this morning. Magyar is up against the clock in Hungary giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Many middle powers are fast diversifying trade ties away from the US • In May-Dec 2025 trade among UK, Canada, EU, Japan, South Korea and Switzerland rose by 12% • EU leads the way, as recent burst of free-trade deals with Mercosur, India and Australia illustrates www.economist.com/finance-and-...

What comes next for Hungary after a historic election? Tune in tomorrow morning at 10:45 a.m. CDT to hear @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @armida.bsky.social, and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social as they analyze the results and Orbán's stunning defeat in a rapid response virtual program. bit.ly/424U9Pm

What's going to happen to these gongo's is, to me, one of the key questions. Will they continue to operate and influence from the outside, or will the state cut funding and take back their shares in state-owned companies, as @veghzsuzsanna.bsky.social outlined yesterday? If so, will others step in?

Thrilled to join the Council as a nonresident fellow, alongside my CER role. Look forward to contributing to the Council's work.

94% of votes counted, with a clear 2/3 majority for Magyar's Tisza projected. And not to spoil the mood, but the new parliament will be composed solely of right- to far-right parties. Next to the right-wing Tisza and far-right Fidesz, extreme-right Mi Hazánk also seems to have won 7 seats. #Hungary

Trump wants to strongarm Nato into a new Gulf war. Here’s why Europe must resist

Very good @carnegieeurope.bsky.social discussion on the far right in Europe with @casmudde.bsky.social @cfieschi.bsky.social and @rosabalfour.bsky.social - this is well worth your time. www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQFb...

Tell me you're Italian without telling me you're Italian 😂🇮🇹

Read more in my new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social report 👇 www.cer.eu/publications...

Key messages should focus on: 🔸 What the security threat to Europe is 🔸 Ways in which governments are preparing 🔸 Deterrence and why it is worth making investments in defence now 🔸 What war will look like 🔸 The additional spending is only 1-1.5% of GDP 🔸 A peacedeal in Ukraine ≠ threat has passed

Reaching younger audiences is key: 1. They are the generation who will need to back defence spending for the longest 2. Their skills will be required in the armed forces or the broader defence ecosystem This means a national conversation has to have online elements & use social media influencers.

To do the latter, governments need to embark on a comms campaign designed to reach audiences beyond the national security establishment. How do to this? 🔸 Host townhall meetings 🔸 Engage with the arts & cultural sector 🔸 Mobilise popular public figures 🔸 Design national security courses for schools

Gaining public support for high defence spending and the trade-offs required has two elements: 1. Cleaning up defence procurement and ensuring public money is well-spent (easier said than done, I know). 2. Raising the level of threat awareness among the public, a key tactic for gaining support.

Europeans need to rearm and invest more in defence. That involves making difficult choices about public spending, in a context where far-right parties will exploit grievances about cuts to public services. So how should governments build a national consensus on defence? 🧵 www.cer.eu/publications...

The SD share is the lowest in over a century The traditional far right party bounced back (and there are also two smaller ones, which tend to get overlooked by outside observers). The cackling noise in the background is the ghost of JM Le Pen.

The whole debate about reforming donations to political parties is becoming a bit of a sideshow. It's still important. But billionaires can pump millions into loss-making media outlets to further their political agenda with even less regulation. So why wouldn't they?

Europe should not be drawn into this US war of choice in the Middle East. Doing so would, among other things, undermine public support for European rearmament intended to deter Russia writes @armida.bsky.social for @theguardian.com. buff.ly/sE4ZNTE...

I've been asked over the last few days/weeks what I think will happen on April 12th in Orbán's 🇭🇺 (and the aftermath), so here's my assessment, looking at everything as it stands now 🧵 tldr: It's complicated, and no one really knows (and those who say they do are either lying or overly confident) 1/

“Europeans have little to gain from supporting the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran. Their responsibility to their voters is to minimise the harm from what Trump has described as “a short-term excursion” in Iran, but which is already beginning to look more like a prolonged nightmare.“

Aid to Ukraine from 2022-2026 was a rounding error. We used more in the first two weeks of the Iran war than we provided in the 4 years of aid to Ukraine.

Always a pleasure to write for @theguardian.com 👇

In preparation of our online event next week, @cfieschi.bsky.social and I have written short blog posts on the question: "Is the Radical-Right Threat Existential or Overstated?" My take: Yes, the far right is an existential threat but mainly because of the weakness of liberal democratic elites.

@armida.bsky.social is on the spot here. Let's hope decision-makers in London, Paris, and Berlin share this analysis (or learn from hers).

Outside the EEAS. 10 years since the Brussels attacks this weekend.

Always a pleasure to write for @theguardian.com 👇

European governments want the public’s backing for more defence spending. Going to war in the Gulf would jeopardise this. My take for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Important referendum in Italy, which further polarizes politics. A win could have big consequences for Italian liberal democracy, which is already under pressure because of sustained attacks on ethnic and sexual minorities (even if this is barely problematized by foreign media and politics).

If Europe is sucked into this illegal conflict with Iran, public support for rearmament could collapse – and only Putin will benefit writes @armida.bsky.social for @theguardian.com. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

European governments want the public’s backing for more defence spending. Going to war in the Gulf would jeopardise this. My take for @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

European Commissioner for the Budget @piotrserafin.bsky.social gives the keynote speech on Europe as a global power at our @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social conference in Brussels.

@cergrant.bsky.social has welcomed everyone to our Brussels conference today on 'Can Europe be a global power?'

'Governments need to embark on a communications campaign to raise levels of threat awareness among the public, as this plays a key role in helping to sway public opinion towards supporting the spending trade-offs.' (via @armida.bsky.social/@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social) www.cer.eu/publications...

"The prospect of a prime minister with neo-fascist political roots altering the legal order of Italy’s anti-fascist constitution is proving highly contentious" - remember Meloni has repeatedly attacked the judiciary when she didn't agree with their judgements. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Confirms US and Israel chose to escalate. Good scoop by @patrickwintour.bsky.social & @julianborger.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

"Research clearly shows that the far right, once they gain power, have a high probability of dismantling democratic institutions.", says Staffan Lindberg, the founder of the V-Dem institute here: www.theguardian.com/world/commen...

Here are 10 consequences of the US-Israel attack on Iran - a thread. US soft power is damaged. To launch an attack without clear aims or an exit strategy has upset allies - in Europe, Gulf & Asia - who must bear the economic, political and military consequences. /1

‘Beter dan op democratische onvrede en populistisch-rechtse concurrentie te reageren door extreemrechtse retoriek te kopiëren, zouden partijen de normatieve grondslagen van de eigen tradities moeten activeren en updaten’

Public dissatisfaction caused by cuts to public services to support defence will add to populations’ grievances about politics. @armida.bsky.social's @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper looks at strategies for building public support for increased defence spending. Read here: buff.ly/CqgCMt8

For Germany, and especially considering Merz's traditional atlanticists past, this is about as hard as a No to the US/Trump possibly imaginabe:

“Washington has for decades dedicated less than 1% of its naval budget to mine warfare, despite mines being responsible for almost 80%of US warships disabled since 1945 and over 75% of its naval casualties since 1950. European nations now have more developed mine-warfare capabilities than the US.”

Trouble brewing in German European politics - research from @dpa.com released over the weekend shows that cooperation between the EPP and the far-right including the ESN/AfD on migration policy is far more extensive than argued by Manfred Weber:

The challenge for European governments is to create a national consensus in favour of more investment in #defence. @armida.bsky.social's new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief looks at strategies for preventing a polictical backlash. Read here: buff.ly/CqgCMt8

I was just disinvited from the Air War College where I’d been asked to lecture on my book, which is a history of U.S. civil-military relations.

Well it seems now that the tininess of the functional remnant of the Royal Navy has been thrown into the spotlight by calls to "do something" about Cyprus and the Gulf, the UK's national conversation on defence has kicked into high gear. But Starmer's government is still largely absent from it -

In this piece for @iai.tv, I argue that agency of smaller states matters especially in times of rupture. Without their own determined agency, Estonia, Finland, or Ukraine would never have emerged as independent states and would not have survived against all odds. iai.tv/articles/sma...

"High threat awareness of the national security risks Russia poses already exists in the Baltic and Nordic states. In western and southern Europe, however, much more can be done to make the public aware of these security risks." 👇🏻

Governments in Europe need to engage with the public to build consensus on rearmament by: • Hosting townhall meetings • Engaging with the arts and cultural sector • Mobilising popular public figures • Designing national security courses for schools Read more: buff.ly/kgTEzP0

Belgium: NASAMS anti-aircraft weapons for Port of Antwerp-Bruges... #civilprotection #criticalinfrastructuresecurity www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/20...