I learned a lot about what is happening with enlargement from this brilliant podcast, by @milanninberlin.bsky.social and @zecsaky.bsky.social. They are not as pessimistic as I am about the prospects of EU enlargement.

Europe needs to rapidly improve its deterrence. A new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social / Hanns Seidel Foundation paper by @armida.bsky.social outlines key steps European governments can take in the next 1-2 years to accelerate rearmament, readiness and deterrence efforts. Read here: buff.ly/rwfLU1S

In practice, says @cergrant.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank, the EU would want to see broad agreement across party lines in Britain before discussing re-entry terms, so that tomorrow’s ministers did not unpick a deal reached by today’s.

@cergrant.bsky.social spoke on the Pacific Council on International Policy's webinar on 'Europe's future in focus: Security, growth, and the challenge of unity', watch here:

Keir Starmer multiplie les mesures pour rapprocher son pays de Bruxelles, par «intérêt national» pour contrer les effets désastreux du #Brexit. Mais la question européenne reste ultrasensible outre-Manche. L'analyse de @cergrant.bsky.social directeur du @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social buff.ly/LlrYQhz

@cergrant.bsky.social, director of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank, said that while the EU was keen on greater security and defence co-operation with the UK there were some countries, including France, that were “much less keen on extending economic co-operation”. buff.ly/nFSttlj

@cergrant.bsky.social, director of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank, is sceptical of a movement to rejoin the EU, arguing that Brussels would not embrace the idea without clear political consensus within the UK. For now, that looks far off. 🇪🇺 🇬🇧 buff.ly/dQlTLsS

Good column by Janan Ganesh: UK needs a centre-left foreign policy (cos right is anti-EU, pro-US and says don't talk to China); but a centre-right economic policy (cos left is for high tax and welfare spending, and anti-business). @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/8868...

🎙️Listen to our new #CERpodcast ‘Unpacking Europe’ discussing Hungary's landslide election outcome, @zecsaky.bsky.social spoke with Zsuzsanna Szelényi🎙️ Listen here:

If the #Hormuz strait remains closed, European governments should avoid the huge fossil fuel subsidies they provided in 2022, argue @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social in their new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight. Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

excellent analysis of the Hungarian election

I think all we can say re: Iran is that Trump pretty clearly wants it to go away without being humiliated. But as that can't happen it's not at all clear what will.

We continue to watch and analyse Greenland risks closely. No officials in Copenhagen, Brussels or EU capitals think they've gone away - indeed most think they're rising.

Missed this report the other day. Elbridge Colby told Cardinal Christophe Pierre, the Vatican’s US representative: “The US has the military power to do whatever it wants in the world. The Catholic Church had better take its side.”

For over a year, Tisza has led the polls. But when asked who will win the elections, the public has always said Fidesz. This changed in the last 6-8 weeks. In March, Median found 47% who think Tisza will win vs 35% for Fidesz. Publicus measured a similar trend. This is massive

@cergrant.bsky.social from the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social joins James Heale to reflect on the rumours about Britain’s latest set of negotiations with the European Union in the Spectator's Coffee House Shots podcast.

Here are 10 consequences of the US-Israel attack on Iran - a thread. US soft power is damaged. To launch an attack without clear aims or an exit strategy has upset allies - in Europe, Gulf & Asia - who must bear the economic, political and military consequences. /1

Why does the EU dislike Starmer's plan to rejoin bits of the single market, sector by sector? I explain on this @thespectator1828.bsky.social podcast, to @shippersunbound.bsky.social and @jaheale.bsky.social. spectator.com/podcast/eu-d... @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social

“Excluding Türkiye from SAFE means that there is ultimately going to be a mismatch between the European threat map and its institutional map,” @senemaydndzgit.bsky.social told the #CERpodcast. Listen here: buff.ly/MEKSCri

LAST WEEK TO APPLY for the 13th Clara Marina O’Donnell #fellowship. Start date: October 2026 for six months Pay: London Living Wage Applications in by: 09/04/26 @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social @brookings.edu @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social @campolis.bsky.social buff.ly/3vV64SZ

#Hungary is about to hold the EU’s most important election this year. But can the opposition win and even if it does, can it restore democracy? Read @zecsaky.bsky.social's analysis ahead of the vote:

The US administration seems not to have foreseen that #Iran would attack facilities in the Gulf states with drones, and reportedly turned down a 2025 Ukrainian offer of counter-#drone technology. CER insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social & @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here:

A shrewd analysis of where WTO is going, or not

This thread by @cergrant.bsky.social still looks good. Only point that might have changed over the last 2 wks is Zelenskyy parlaying Ukraine's counter-drone expertise into defence export deals with Gulf states - potentially enabling UA to fund more arms production & offset cuts in US supplies.

@cergrant.bsky.social has been a central figure in European debates for three decades, and has done as much as anyone to build a European civil society. The CER is a fantastic organisation, and that's largely down to him.

An excellent thread on Hungary

My first ever serious job was @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social when @cergrant.bsky.social gave me a chance. Best ever school in how to be a think tanker. It will be an exceptional challenge to take over from Charles who has turned the CER into a uniquely influential organisation. Details below

Quite possibly the best job in Europe’s think-tank world. CER is looking for its next director as the irreplaceable @cergrant.bsky.social steps down as director later this year.

Good news in a troubled world. France is NOT necessarily drifting towards its first Far Right leader since 1944. Two polls now suggest that the former Centrist PM Edouard Philiippe could beat the Far Right in the 2nd round of the Presidential election next May. 1/

I agree with Ulrike's prescriptions - including the idea that more ambitious countries should move ahead in avant-gardes. I made a similar point in my recent essay on the future of Europe in the CER's annual report: www.cer.eu/sites/defaul... @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social

@cergrant.bsky.social, director of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, said: “A number of EU countries, including Poland and the Baltic states are absolutely determined that their students should not pay higher tuition fees to study in UK universities... www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

@cergrant.bsky.social has welcomed everyone to our Brussels conference today on 'Can Europe be a global power?'

Sometimes it helps to take a step back and analyse the situation with crystal-clear objectivity. Charles Grant has done this admirably; it’s a thread well worth reading:

Here are 10 consequences of the US-Israel attack on Iran - a thread. US soft power is damaged. To launch an attack without clear aims or an exit strategy has upset allies - in Europe, Gulf & Asia - who must bear the economic, political and military consequences. /1

“It's becoming harder for Europe to say 'Yes' to Trump,” @cergrant.bsky.social, director at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, told @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“When I speak to people in Paris and Berlin, there’s not much enthusiasm,” said @cergrant.bsky.social, director of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, an independent think-tank. “It feels like it’s cherry picking.” www.ft.com/content/111f...

Applications are open for the 13th Clara Marina O’Donnell fellowship, watch here for @thomasmaddock.bsky.social's tips to candidates. Full details here - buff.ly/3vV64SZ Start date: October 2026 for six months Pay: London Living Wage Applications in by: 09/04/26

An excellent paper on European defence budgets by @armida.bsky.social

@cergrant.bsky.social, del @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, apunta que China “ve con desdén a los europeos, como una potencia en declive”. elpais.com/internaciona...

As our former ambassador to Latvia, @cerianbond.bsky.social, observed to me: “Too many of its people have for so long been told that they are a nation surrounded by enemies who are constantly plotting against them.” www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

The EU's struggle to ratify the #Mercosur deal exposes a weakness in Europe's geoeconomic playbook, argues @antonspisak.bsky.social in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight. Read here: buff.ly/IESx33T

good piece on global role of euro

Four lessons & four policy priorities after four years of Russia’s war against #Ukraine. 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social. Read here: buff.ly/6RWmjER

@cergrant.bsky.social examines these challenges in the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social 2025 annual report essay but concludes that there are cautious grounds for optimism. The report also highlights the CER’s most important events and publications in 2025. Read here: buff.ly/22mXMmm

Read @cergrant.bsky.social's paper here: buff.ly/1I0JhS8

[Report] #FutureofEurope - Europe’s future: Grounds for hope? - Annual report 2025, by @cergrant.bsky.social, @cerianbond.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social & @zecsaky.bsky.social | @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

Good Economist piece on Merz tough China trip. "For not only has China’s market begun to dry up for Germany, big chunks of German industry now regard China as a direct threat to their interests.." With a favourite chart of Setser and mine. China's net car exports now dwarf even peak Germany. 1/

My essay in @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social annual report looks for reasons not to be totally depressed about the state of the EU: UK getting closer, Commission quite strong, defence budgets rising, it can work with middle powers, smaller groups of countries forge ahead. www.cer.eu/sites/defaul...

The tussle over Buy European is emblematic of what @cergrant.bsky.social describes as the “paradox of French power”. buff.ly/R67KC2t

In the 30 years since the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social’s conception, the world has probably never been more intellectually interesting than it was in 2025, but also never more alarming writes @cergrant.bsky.social in the CER's annual report. Read here: buff.ly/22mXMmm