Happy Easter

Superb

Happy Easter, one and all

A Lord Ashcroft poll suggests Reform, Green & Tories are all now each on 21%. As the Mail notes "instead of asking voters what they would do in a hypothetical election tomorrow, he asks them how likely they would be to back each party at the next election– whenever it comes".

Sun reports that Liz Kendall and Peter Kyle are for the cabinet chop - which would mean three respective Science and Business Secretaries in less than two years

Enjoyed speaking to Jack, who mentions here that some of his children's godparents are friends he met through the Conservative Party. The human factor in debates around defections and party loyalty is one that can be often overlooked. spectator.com/podcast/cons...

Enjoyed @lewisgoodall.com on SpecTV recalling Harold Wilson once telling fellow MPs: "Look, if I could walk over there to Saint Thomas's Hospital from Parliament's terrace right now. And tomorrow, the Daily Mail's headline would be: 'Prime Minister can't swim!'"

Beautiful Spectator Easter cover

Jenrick tells Reform rally in East Anglia: “And I know - you in Norfolk, like the rest of the country, are fed up of men, not from these parts, staying in luxury accommodation, getting 3 meals a day. But that’s enough about Prince Andrew.”

Former PM Liz Truss to shortly announce the start of CPAC Great Britain in Texas

New: Reform UK Wales spokesperson: “Corey Edwards has informed us that he is stepping down as a candidate for the Senedd election this May, citing issues with his mental health. We wish him well for the future and hope his privacy can be respected at this difficult time.”

Lord Trefgarne today retires as Father of the House of Lords, after 64 years. When he joined the Upper House, it was almost entirely male and hereditary, given the introduction of life peers only four years' prior. I had the pleasure to interview him for Tatler last year:

Reform Scotland have now lost five of their Holyrood candidates in eight days: Stuart Niven, Jordan Brown, Roland Jackson, Linda Holt and James Glen

Guardian, Times, New Statesman, Spectator all doing profiles, pieces and columns on Miliband as ‘the real PM’ this past week. All the more baffling that Starmer stood at the despatch box on Wednesday and was willing to proclaim his impotence.

Image of the session

Big row developing between two of Reform's leading public figures:

Great gigs now going at The Sun, ConHome and others – good time to get into political journalism and work with some of the best hacks in Britain

Delighted to welcome Noa Hoffman to The Spectator's politics team:

This week's @thespectator1828.bsky.social cover with @shippersunbound.bsky.social: the most extensive deep-dive to date on Reform's rise

Striking that Claire Coutinho + Andrew Griffith among those welcoming this Next Gen Tories report: "Senior Civil Service leadership should be politically appointed... [ministers] should have the power to appoint permanent secretaries, director generals and directors"

Delighted to be fronting with @shippersunbound.bsky.social a new show for Spectator TV. New episodes every week here:

Page 6 of today’s Metro has Reform advertising for the 1,800 candidates standing in London on 7 May

Fifty years today since Harold Wilson’s retirement as PM. Aside from a tip-off to Jim Callaghan, the only people to know were the government car drivers - because Wilson had just changed the rules to allow ex PMs to get one for life.

Getting these X messages on a daily basis now

EXC: Lib Dems explicitly aiming for a "Love Actually dividend" at the ballot box come May Party aims to exploit discontent with Trump's Iran strikes in a leaked plan dubbed "Operation Epsom Fury" Expect plenty of comparisons to Iraq and 2003: t.co/y1aWfSKQyB

Exc: more than £1 million already raised to fight trail hunting ban, ahead of the government's expected announcement on a promised consultation spectator.com/article/trai...

Britain now has as many political leaders who worked at McDonalds (Badenoch & Polanski) as went to Oxbridge (Starmer & Davey) via Times Diary

News: the Hereditary Peers Bill has tonight finally passed the Lords, ending centuries of tradition. Expect a handful of life peerages for a smattering of hereds

Exc: Labour will shortly begin asking MPs if they want to stand again, ahead of 'trigger ballots' Some within the party worry these could become a proxy for grassroots discontent 400+ MPs means they need to begin this year to complete the process spectator.com/article/labo...

This week’s column on the upcoming battle for London: - Greens keen to finish off Starmer - Tory hopes of doing a ‘Ken Baker’ - Kevin Hollinrake tries to charm Nigella - Reform eye 6 council wins - Your Party is ‘over’ say organisers - George Galloway exiled in China spectator.com/article/coul...

New: Greens surge by four points in a week according to YouGov Reform UK: 23% (-1) Greens: 21% (+4) Labour: 16% (-2) Tories: 16% (-2) Lib Dems: 14% (no change)

For Starmer, the Iran crisis – with its potential for regional conflict, oil price spikes and a migration surge – is fraught with danger and few opportunities: spectator.com/article/star...

PM's statement on Iran: "Our forces are active and British planes are in the sky today as part of coordinated regional defensive operations to protect our people, our interests, and our allies - as Britain has done before, in line with international law"

Friend of the PM quoted in The Guardian today: “Keir would not have been able to live with himself if he had been forced out of office early without showing the country who he really is and what he’s about.”

Lots of positive tweets for Matt Goodwin this morning from Nigel Farage down through top team and staff. Expect he will get a seat with much more favourable demographics next time around.

Tonight will boost the profile of the Greens: something which Reform believe plays to their advantage spectator.com/article/gree...

Greens, Reform and Labour people all suggesting Labour has come third

One Monster Raving Looney activist has smuggled a pint in to the count under a top hat

Reform source: "We have had over 1,000 activists out in the seat today, and we have done all we can in our 440th target seat"

Incidents of family voting in Gorton & Denton reached the highest levels of any election in the past 10 yrs according to Democracy Volunteers: “The data we have collected today on family voting, when compared to other recent by-elections, is extremely high.”

Reeves, Rishi and Restore Britain: why the world of Westminster is playing a much greater role in the latest season of Industry: spectator.com/article/i-be...

Some suggestion that Rachel Reeves told Kemi Badenoch to "fuck off" after this line:

Kemi Badenoch: "Perhaps, before he [Starmer] gets on his high horse, he should ask why his backbenchers are saying that they’re being called the ‘Paedo defenders’ party’?”

New Times/Stonehaven MRP poll out puts SNP on course for a majority in the 129-strong Scottish parliament: SNP – 67 MSPs (+3) Reform – 25 MSPs (+25) Labour – 15 MSPs (-7) Lib Dems – 8 MSPs (+4) Tory - 7 MSPs (-24) Green – 7 MSPs (-1) Changes compared to 2021

Great fun watching poker-faced broadcasters sigh whenever Gorton & Denton gets mentioned on air and then be forced to read out the full list of candidates starting with “Sir Oink A-Lot”

New: Police were seen arriving at Peter Mandelson's home this afternoon before he left in an unmarked car, days after Andrew's arrest h/t The Sun

Labour MP Brain Leishman says the Labour Together smear campaign is some "dark shit"

New: Zia Yusuf pledges to introduce the “Polanski Law” to make “aiding and abetting illegal entry into the UK a criminal offence, regardless of intent”. In Reform’s words: “This will stop the Green Party endorsed charity industrial complex from facilitating large scale illegal entry“

A joy to have Joy Craig on our podcast to talk about his love of by elections spectator.com/podcast/why-...