Fascinating. The bluffers guide to the railway bubble vs the actual historians. And why Britain has such a lousy railway system.

Ik hoop dat Milei erin slaagt om Argentinië macro-economische stabiliteit te verschaffen. Maar Argentinië heeft keer op keer haar IMF doelstellingen voor de staatsfinancien en het opbouwen van deviezen niet gehaald. Als je wilt bezuinigen is Griekenland of Nederland zelf een beter voorbeeld.

Een toevoeging. Nederland heeft een dalende staatsschuld (een van de laagste ter wereld), en een enorm tekort op de lopende rekening (exporteert spaartegoeden, geen buitenlandse financiering nodig). Niet bepaald een land wat een IMF of Trump bailout nodig heeft zoals Argentinië.

Opvallende oproep. Argentinië is herhaaldelijk failliet gegaan, kende hyperinflatie en had een niet-onafhankelijke centrale bank. Ik zie de vergelijking met Nederland niet. 1/

I note that concern about the second China shock to Europe is going mainstream. Good piece from ING bank: "While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries" think.ing.com/articles/eur...

A new piece from Armida and myself on the political and economic outlook for the Netherlands after the elections.

In case anyone was getting euphoric about the Dutch election results, here's a useful corrective from my colleagues @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social . In sum - the likely coalition will be better than last time, but the far right vote is still rising, though more fragmented.

Europa als speelbal tussen China en Amerika. Hoe wordt Europa weer een speler? Met @sandertordoir.bsky.social spreek ik over Europa’s strategische achterstand op China en de VS, en wat er nodig is om onze autonomie terug te winnen. open.spotify.com/episode/0vdf...

De uitslag biedt hoop dat Nederland kan terugkeren naar de Europese arena als ‘constructieve, zuinige dealmaker’, stelt @sandertordoir.bsky.social van de denktank @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.

I see your worthy "why are you still on X" posts and sorry but we've gone way beyond that, no such incendiary publication would be allowed in printed form so why are we still thinking this should be allowed online?

My latest with thoughts on why Trump lost the trade war, how Gen Z is fuelling the AI bubble, looking on the bright side of AI job losses, the bull case for gilts, and calculating the cost of Brexit

True it’s a mutual dependence. Not sure the wafers had stopped but the overall supply chain had frozen up thanks to Chinas restrictions

Nexperia car chips will start flowing again. But quite strange that this comes from the US-China talks. The Netherlands and China will still need to figure out how to resolve all the corporate governance problems at Nexperia. www.wsj.com/business/aut...

Woah what a cover from Handelsblatt. The China Trap. "Raw materials, semiconductors, export markets — out of convenience and short-sightedness, Germany made itself dependent on Beijing. Now the bill is coming due. But there are ways out." That note of optimism at the end is exactly right.

EU-China relations are deteroriating because of China's overcapacities and support for Russia's war in Ukraine. The UK is, for now, on a different track. @cerianbond.bsky.social long-read delves into the various dimensions of Channel divergence/convergence on China. www.cer.eu/publications...

Terrific piece from John Springford - a cool-headed analysis on the interplay between trade openness, migration policies, and the rise of populism. Required reading in my view. N=2 but would say the success of D66 and CDA in the Dutch campaign confirm John's thesis. www.cer.eu/insights/pol...

The FT editorial board rightly rings the German alarm bell. Germanys window to revive its economy, stagnating since 2019, is closing. The Chancellor has understandably been occupied with stabilising relations with the US, and supporting Ukraine. But the economy requires urgent attention. 1/

And yes I have to charge my phone 🫠

Most EU #car exports go to a handful of allied advanced economies similarly worried about Chinese overcapacities. A European eco-bonus could be a springboard to negotiate reciprocal to #EV subsidies.

My take on the Dutch election result - kicker quote in a good piece by Barbara Moens on the road ahead. It should be obvious after the events of the last few weeks that D66 managing to form a new, stable Dutch government is important for Europe's economy and strategic autonomy.

🚨New publication with Kristijan Kotarski: Enduring Structural Power? Assessing the Dominance of the Anglosphere in Global Finance Before the Trump Turn Includes novel visualizations of global finance (banking, portfolio inv & FDI) showing persistent US centrality hrcak.srce.hr/clanak/487488

The chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank, @sandertordoir.bsky.social, said that “Europe cannot afford another Dutch government that drifts and is absent in the European debate.” buff.ly/LqKTcGS

In a report by @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social that was widely circulated last week, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and co-authors @nilsredeker.bsky.social & @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social said “buy Europe” should be extended to electric vehicle industries. buff.ly/Bm82ybr

"Mitte der 2000er war Deutschland Weltmarktführer für Solarmodule. Heute sind unsere Dächer mit Zellen "Made in China" gepflastert. Es gibt keinen Grund zu glauben, dass unsere Straßen in 20 Jahren nicht auch voller chinesischer Autos sein könnten."

Für die Zeit haben wir mit @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social und @sandertordoir.bsky.social aufgeschrieben, was das Problem der europäischen Autoindustrie ist, warum Denkmalschutz für Verbrenner die schlechtesten aller Antworten wäre - und was die EU stattdessen tun kann. www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2...

Does the rise of populism have economic roots, and more protectionist and anti-immigration policies help? Quick thread on my latest piece here buff.ly/O2SoUok

You've read the paper, now read the op-ed. Piece in Die Zeit by Nils, Lucas and myself based on our report on how to coordinate buy-European EV subsidies - which by the way owes a lot to the intellectually always generous Brad Setser (some Americans still like Europe).

"Dutch voters eye return to centre after far-right experiment fails". Whether the election results produce a potential coalition with a workable majority will be a more difficult question. www.ft.com/content/1275...

Europe’s car industry faces a triple challenge: China’s subsidised export surge, US tariffs/IRA rollback, & weak EU demand. @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @nilsredeker.bsky.social, & @sandertordoir.bsky.social argue for a coordinated "Buy-European" EV eco-bonus ➡️ bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...

Europe's car industry has major problems, but none of this has anything to do with future emission rules or an engine ban in 10yrs. It's about China's rise as a car exporter, US protectionism and low domestic car demand. Boost demand at home; harmonise support schemes. Must-read report

Another thought on Davids point. I think the logic is inverse: strong EU home demand and thus EV scale is essential to attain global competitiveness. No imported car or battery ever qualified for China‘s subsidies. That didn’t stop China from conquering global car markets - the opposite, in fact.

Paging @nilsredeker.bsky.social snd @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social who wrote the proposal with me.

A chart Berlin‘s economic policy-makers should think hard about. Doing a buy-German clause in new EV subsidies would be an own goal. The German market is simply too small, and lacks sufficient premium demand. 1/

Interesting thread and policy brief. Could have been the EU’s corporate fleet mandate years ago. Note the French écobonus is an extension of the bonus-malus car taxation. A malus (higher tax on polluting cars) seems a German political no-go, but is the effective counterweight (works well in 🇳🇴 🇩🇰 etc)

Coordinated “Buy European” clauses are also quite elegant economically: they don’t pick individual winners, they’re competition-friendly within the single market since national subsidies stay open to producers across the EU, and they help speed up the transition rather than cement old structures.

Indeed Joris. That’s the crux. EU money isn’t available and if it will be as of 2028. Most member-states already subsidise EV demand. They just don’t do it on the basis of the same criteria.

Very good thread on the car industry. We "just" need EU action now.

Good thread on the pressure facing Europe’s auto sector and some potential solutions.

Good 🧵 on cars here.

The simple answer is no. Politicians will not let Europes car industry die. The political economy is obvious. Nor should they. Question is if we do good or bad policy

Indeed. It’s absurd so much focus is on regulation that’s ten years away when Germany has lost half its net car exports to China. And EU demand is 20% depressed. EU Leaders should see the forest for the trees.

Thanks Jorn! Our plan can be implemented in 3 months. State aid approval essentially guaranteed, WTO compliant, aligns 70 per cent of EJ market. Use the 30-40 billion in existing subsidies far more powerfully and maybe pack a few on top. Sensible for an industry with 10 million jobs.

Love an analysis that starts with the right problem statement. And for cars that's falling demand. Subsidies might help a bit - but ultimately the question is whether Europe is giving up on the idea of international competitiveness.

Thank you!

Die Ökonomen @sandertordoir.bsky.social vom Centre for European Reform, @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social von der Bertelsmann-Stiftung und @nilsredeker.bsky.social vom Jacques Delors Centre befürworten eine Kaufprämie grundsätzlich – doch sie lehnen einen deutschen Alleingang ab. buff.ly/9tOX4o8

Germany laid the foundation for a Franco-German bargain by putting its EV subsidies back on - 5 to 12. Berlin should copy Frances eco-bonus conditionality, filtering out Chinese cars from further subsidy Then extend the logic to corporate car directive so Europe steers demand into premium cars too

Europe’s car industry is in rough waters with sinking demand for European EVs, & the response cannot wait. In a new joint paper @sandertordoir.bsky.social , @nilsredeker.bsky.social & @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social , propose "Buy-European" EV demand support coordinated across the Single Market. 1/4

Great thread by Nils on our new paper. Joint work - Germany, France and the other member-states can either do a coordinated demand push for EU built cars or descent into a chaos of regulatory roll-backs and bailouts. It really is hang together or separately for European cars.

New paper out with a blueprint for a proper European industrial policy in the automotive sector. The urgent issue is to offset geopolitical demand shocks - coordinated EV subsidies of the big four (FR FR ES IT) could cover 70% of the EU market. Will tweet more later :)

Can’t say I am surprised. The UK has the political stability (dare I say it?) to turn the boat around, inflation has been a bit sticky but should come down. British self-flagellation on an imminent IMF bailout was silly. www.ft.com/content/3295...