@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, a pro-EU think-tank, said “You don’t want to get married to someone who you don’t know is committed to the relationship.” www.ft.com/content/ac01...

1/ It’s 10 years since the British voted to leave the EU. The big reason we remainers lost is that we didn’t convince people that being in the EU was actually a good idea.

Spanish PM Sanchez has clearly decided Europe needs to accomodate Chinese power. Goldman's modelling, does, however suggests Spain's economy is also being slowed down by China shock 2.0. Overall strong Spanish growth obscuring that pain, and clouding the PMs judgement.

The FT headline isn't quite right. It was always clear EU Leads would give guidance today to the Commission to work on a pla to bolster trade defences over the summer, and prep for Chinese retaliation. It's not a real delay, in that sense. But there's a risk. 1/ www.ft.com/content/e220...

Looking forward to what is intended as a starting point for embracing European financial leverage and resilience of its financial architecture.

Cutting-edge and hugely important research from my colleagues John and Anton. Obligatory reading for all UK politicians. And for EU officials seeking to boost growth - bringing a large market in front of the door back in does more than FTAs with far-flung countries.

John Springford and Anton Spisak have been building thé model to estimate the economic dividends (or not) from different UK-EU reset options. Great to see this work come to fruition. The GuardIan has the write-up of their work. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Great G7 work from the Chancellor to table Chinese currency undervaluation - an issue the US bizarrely is no longer interested in. There was a time - not long ago - when the US Treasury led on this. Germany and France are showing leadership instead.

There’s a case for a new EU trade defence tool to respond tailored to chinas macro distortions. But Europe needs to avoid building another unusable ACI 2.0 - the key is to act, for example with safeguards (exempting all FTA partners) — that can be replaced with a European 301 tool down the line.

What’s more: Last I checked Indian officials were calling the EU FTA the “mother of all trade deals”. A smallish part of the globe thus seems to not think of Europe as a predator.

Which is why …drumroll… 52 of the 70 largest economies triggered trade defences against China last year. The EU is clearly the problem! And the whole world is saying so.

The frame Europe is “starting“ a trade war with China is strange. China has been waging trade and industrial policy battle against Europe, sector after sector. EU diplos asked for change nicely for years. Now the EU wants to do something about it and it’s the aggressor? Aha.

The political economy punchline? Areas that voted most strongly for Leave have not suffered the largest economic costs. The correlation is weakly negative as Remain-voting areas (London, Scottish cities, university towns) bore the brunt Brexit was a levelling up by levelling down 8/...

“BMW AG fell 11% after the company slashed its profitability forecast for the year and ramped up its cost-cutting program, warning of worsening demand in China” Ouch.

It’s true Herr Dr Setser and I have not agreed with the Fund’s line on imbalances, nor the second China shock. The IMF is catching up a tad - was high time after wrongly predicting imbalances would narrow for years. Chart from Shahin shows the IMF got mugged by reality.

For the French readers, an interview with L’Express. Not my shortest snappiest answers so you need to want to nerd out.

Apologies for the public victory lap, but I was just reading a piece I wrote back in 2012 and, well, it's nice to occasionally get something right.

Chinesische Autohersteller profitieren bislang überproportional von der neuen deutschen Elektroautoprämie. Genau davor hatten @sandertordoir.bsky.social, @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social und ich letztes Jahr gewarnt. Man hätte das sehr leicht verhindern können 👇 www.delorscentre.eu/de/publikati...

Rather humbling. Handelsblatt: "A key factor in the Chancellor's change of course was, among other things, a research paper by economists Sander Tordoir and Brad Setser" Pleased Brad and I could contribute to Chancellor Merz's thinking on China Shock 2.0 with analysis and a few policy ideas. 1/

I think this is what @sandertordoir.bsky.social @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social and @nilsredeker.bsky.social were suggesting in their paper: include UK, Japan, South Korea in what qualifies for 'Buy European' www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...

HSBC: Are chip stocks bubbly? Comparing today to 1999 $SOXX $SMH

The Napoleonic tradition really does nail it sometimes.

Manfred Weber calls for tougher trade defences on China. To prevent Beijing “flattening parts of European industry” www.bild.de/politik/ausl...

Ouch. Not surprising for those of us who have been paying attention, but a powerful data visual. I don’t think Röpke Eucken nor Dutch Ordoliberal philosophers would approve of a do nothing response to such distortions. (h/t @tbenner.bsky.social )

A company-level OECD analysis of government subsidies across 15 key industrial sectors found that nearly 60 per cent of Chinese firms’ global market share gains since 2005 could be attributed to subsidies Paging @davidheniguk.bsky.social for comments

Le choc de compétitivité imposé par la Chine n’obéit pas aux règles habituelles. Pour résister, le Vieux Continent doit faire beaucoup plus, prévient l'économiste @sandertordoir.bsky.social du @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.

The question that Germany now faces is whether it is willing to join forces with France & other countries & the Commission, “to defend the European home market from the flood of Chinese goods that is coming our way,” said @sandertordoir.bsky.social of @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social buff.ly/0BXlhmN

“The main thing is Europe has an arsenal of trade instruments at its disposal already,” @sandertordoir.bsky.social the @CER_EU’s chief economist, told reporters. “What’s missing is a lack of political will to deploy them.”

Big weeks in Brussels and EU capitals to see if the chilling effect of Chinese coercive threats will continue to hold sway over Europe’s trade and industrial agenda. Beijing’s coercive leverage works best when it quietly constrains Europe’s policy space... 1/

Die Ökonomen Brad Setser und @sandertordoir.bsky.social gehen in einer neuen Studie zum „China-Schock 2.0“ sogar von einer verhinderten Aufwertung von um die 30 Prozent aus.

„Angst voor Chinese vergelding is begrijpelijk. Maar China heeft Europa ook hard nodig.” Sander Tordoir @rikrutten.bsky.social Tabitha Speelman @sandertordoir.bsky.social @nrc.nl @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social #economie www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

Joined Politicos podcast this morning, on the day the Commission College discusses its response to the second China shock. With Grzegorz from MERICS. www.politico.eu/podcast/brus...

Die Abhängigkeiten in der Chipindustrie und bei Seltenen Erden sind für Brad Setser & @sandertordoir.bsky.social mahnende Beispiele. buff.ly/fheH7Z7

On that note I’m about to confirm one of the Chancellors theses. Going on holiday like a lazy European (maybe we should indeed also work a bit more?). See y’all in a week.

To understand the actual world as it is, not as we should wish it to be, is the beginning of [fill in]. For Bertrand Russell it was [wisdom], but maybe its [the end], or just [a glass of wine].

“The EU could well conclude that it can’t act (against China) because the short-term costs are too high. In which case it will have given in to coercion both now and later.” Great piece by Soumaya Keynes. With a shoutout to Brad and my piece. 1/

L’Allemagne souffre d’un Phantomschmerz, une douleur de membre fantôme. C’est le mot qu’emploient @sandertordoir.bsky.social et Brad Setser dans leur rapport du 20 mai pour le @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social: la douleur se ressent là où quelque chose de vital a déjà été perdu. buff.ly/VvDMW9o

“It would be naive to sell Germany’s excess car plants to Chinese competitors without setting any type of conditions, both to employ German workers & engineers & for Chinese battery & EV producers to engage in technology transfer,” says @sandertordoir.bsky.social. www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

Brad Setser con il @sandertordoir.bsky.social ha tracciato per il @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social un quadro approfondito di quanto sta accadendo, in particolare, fra la Cina e la Germania. Ma la loro lezione si applica in genere all'intera UE e, in maniera molto specifica, all'Italia.

@sandertordoir.bsky.social en Brad Setser pleiten voor een nieuw Europees handelsinstrument in de geest van de Amerikaanse Sectie 301 voor de EU om te reageren op China's kunstmatig laag gehouden munt.

Darin vertreten die @sandertordoir.bsky.social und Brad Setser die These, Deutschlands Unternehmen litten nicht vornehmlich unter verkrusteten Strukturen, hohen Kosten und fehlender Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. buff.ly/GbEPLat

Der „zweite China-Schock“ sei einer der Hauptgründe für Deutschlands Wirtschaftsmisere, sagt der Chefökonom des Thinktanks @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social. buff.ly/wg4INZr

@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, says there is “a real risk that significant chunks of the engineering, production, innovation and supply chains in automotive will end up concentrating even more heavily in China”. buff.ly/t5o8Osr

Dit uitstekende onderzoek van de Volkskrant en de UvA laat goed zien welke bedreiging het socialemediaplatform X voor de democratie vormt. ‘De vraag is niet wanneer dit onze democratie gaat schaden, de schade is al lang ontstaan.’ #StandUpToBigTech www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v...

@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social warns her not to skirt around recent tensions: “If Reiche pretends like this is a 2016, not 2026, China trip, Chinese diplomats will put Germany in checkmate before the conversation starts.” buff.ly/nA3S66S

#teampope, somehow. What a time to be alive.

Belgium also surely on side given PM are Wevers letter. And not to mention Lithuania. A broad coalition. “Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands, which have historically differed over trade policy, circulated a joint paper with Lithuania”

Who said European countries cannot coordinate? The Spanish, Dutch; French and Italian cavalry join forces. Good diplomatic work. www.ft.com/content/3c70...

Wholeheartedly endorse Erik’s nuanced take. The EU is not a middle power. Stop acting like it. open.substack.com/pub/independ...

V good @soumayakeynes.ft.com essay. www.ft.com/content/5000... No one wins a trade war. Or do they?