Agreed. And in all fairness quite a lot about the FT article is about the fault lines in finding that sweet spot which is a healthy debate.

Some Europeans have still not caught up to a world profoundly shaped by Chinas industrial policy. A lot of hard pushback on targeted buy-European because it would reduce European competitiveness and product quality. Reality, created by China, would disagree. 1/

Europe's centre-right leadership has been determined to cherry-pick the recommendations they acknowledge from Draghi's competitiveness report. They love the deregulation bit. But they've ignored the strengthening Europe bit. But now Draghi is making his call for federalism harder to ignore.

Made me think of a wonderful phrase in Dutch, “broekzak-vestzak” (pants pocket-vest pocket): an illusory transaction where people fool themselves or others into thinking they got richer by moving things from one ledger to another. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

An impressive piece of forensic work by @cerianbond.bsky.social on the EU-UK reset in all it’s facets: from defence to mobility, fish to carbon trading. It’s all there - and ideas on how to iron out the wrinkles. The penultimate briefing for all those following Channel diplomacy.

Desondanks is er nu geen serieuze rivaal voor de macht van de dollar, zegt hoofdeconoom @sandertordoir.bsky.social van het @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, telefonisch. Niet zolang beleggers vastzitten aan die Amerikaanse obligaties. buff.ly/g3mH5lm buff.ly/g3mH5lm

The UK tries again to join €150 billion EU defence fund. It's ironic. In 2016, the UK - then an EU member-state - would likely have blocked common borrowing, even for defence. The UK of 2026 wants in on an EU programme that would not exist if it were a member. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Op tv worden nu 'gewone Nederlanders' geïnterviewd over een coalitieakkoord dat ze niet gelezen hebben...

EU consumers could be predictably stirred with the kind of “Buy European” subsidies proposed by economists, opens new tab such as @sandertordoir.bsky.social at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

Germany bizarrely failed to equip its new EV demand subsidies with soft - easily available off the French and British shelf - buy European clauses to cut China out. But I strongly suspect the Nordics, Germany, Netherlands and UK will build their wind energy with their own /allied tech.

The Termite Thesis on the US dollar. Good, sober, realistic warning bell by Sobel and Kamin in @alphaville.ft.com Meanwhile the euro has its problems but on many metrics doesn’t look so bad, boasting the ECB as its financial fortress. The continent rearming will buttress geopolitical heft.

One of those announcements dissapearing in all the news thunder. The commitment to accelerate wind energy in the North Sea is a great move for Europe - creating more energy independence which can be built with EU and UK kit. It’s a sweet spot. www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/EN...

😂 so true

There's a dollar "vibe shift" happening now that is different from past bouts of dollar pessimism. You might be skeptical. That's understandable since the de-dollarization narrative has been around for years now, and little has changed about the dollar's global position. 1/

Great to have James join the CER team. Do give him a follow for everything on EU tech, innovation and of course wider economic policy.

De ‘Groenland-crisis’ heeft Europese leiders wakker geschud. De afhankelijkheid van de Verenigde Staten moet drastisch worden teruggeschroefd. Over hoe we dat nu precies doen, dat losweken, praten we vandaag verder met @sandertordoir.bsky.social bij het @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social

Can Europe save its auto industry? @sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social on how Chinese competition, American tariffs, and self-inflicted injury have put Europe’s carmakers on the brink. www.thesgnl.com/2026/01/euro...

Deutsche's "Europe could start a firesale of US treasuries" was a useful piece of chatter -- to stoke US jitters. It wasn't a button EU governments can really push, since most of those assets are held privately. But the diversify-away from USA trade may garner some speed on the margin.

Well, that pretty much sums it all up on geopolitics and the global economy.

Broader point about economic statecraft - it‘s very hard to get someone to do something they really don‘t want by economic incentives alone, unless they literally become unable to continue (see discussions on sanctions effectiveness). EU/DK was always going to be the side that cared more.

Trade and economic conflicts are only partly about escalation dominance. It's just as much if not more about who has the higher politcal pain threshold and it was clear that it was Europe this time, hence the logic to retaliate if need be. Threat was sufficient.

Of and I should not forget of course: the threat of pulling out of the football world cup @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social!

This time, Europe’s leaders played the EU-US trade game well. From the Franco-German tough line to Meloni’s off-ramps, backed by a credible €93bn retaliation threat, they made escalation for Trump costly, and de-escalation easy. Markets and US politics did the rest — Rutte scoring on the assist.

🧵 Trump’s Greenland brinkmanship puts the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument back on the table. Few cases fit economic coercion more cleanly. But the ACI is often misunderstood. It’s not a bazooka, but a slow-loading cannon, able to fire anything from heavy shells to hot air. Here’s how it works ⬇️

The only U.S. heavy icebreaker turns 50. That's an interesting landmark given recent U.S. criticism of other countries for not taking Arctic security seriously.

How to think about Trump’s Greenland tariffs in purely economic terms? It’s a nuisance, mostly. Unless we enter a trade war. My latest for The @economist.com. economist.com/finance-and-...

Even better if it’s a Mercosur-European football tournament h/t @codendahl.bsky.social The Latin-Viking Freedom Cup. Perhaps even the French farmers would love it and warm to Mercosur. Sell Argentine beef sticks and french champagne in the stands kind of thing.

Europe should hold a competing football competition in Denmark at exactly the same time - and call it the Viking Freedom Supercup.

Great idea

It might sound silly, but I mean it: The easiest and most potent way for Europe to hurt Trump this year is to once again use its cultural soft power and to threaten a boycott of the World Cup. It would become a completely meaningless event and would hurt him where he is most vulnerable - his vanity.

Pretty clear statement from Lars Klingbeil just now on Trump’s tariff threat: the EU has no interest in escalation — but it won’t be blackmailed. For now, that means the trade deal is on ice and the already agreed €93bn countermeasures package is back on the table. 1/2

Really curious what the UK does. The chasm between Londons efforts to pretend the special relationship still works on the one hand, and its support for Ukraine and the impetus to get closer to Europe on the other, widens. But I can’t see the UK retaliating alongside Europe if it comes to that.

Canada’s China diplomacy can and cannot be replicated by Europe. The broader instinct to diversify is exactly right - and underway, see the EU’s Mercosur deal, and Brussels efforts to cut deals with India and Indonesia. But China is not a logical EU partner 1/

There we go - that was always going to be the obvious first move on Europe's part. Symmetrical response on the goods front.

Joint statement of the 8 European countries tariffed yesterday by Trump. Neither backing down nor escalating themselves (yet). Good to see the UK there with its EU partners:

France is requesting trigger the anti coercion instrument. The other option - putting EU tariffs on 93 billion in US goods imports, is another option - as I explained yesterday.

The crux.

💯

The inspiration for Europe should no longer be Turnberry which is now a proven failure. But Jerome Powell, who stood up to coercion in a principled way, and pushed back effectively.

The only way to stop the spiral is to hit the US hard with escalating economic weapons from Europes side. The goal is to raise political costs for Trumps imperial project. Europe can win this game of chicken as there’s real opposition in the US to this Trump hobby.

Rather than the older retaliation packages Europe could also just put a 10% tariff on US imports or go straight to taxes on US services to react more strongly. Then prepare escalation steps. Europe has little choice but to hit back really hard since Trumps Greenland demand cannot be negotiated.

TLDR: I think the lesson for Europe is that placating to Trump - with the Turnberry trade deal - does not work, now that tariffs are deployed over Greenland. Europe should have retaliated alongside China after Liberation Day, but it has real economic cards it can play even if it has to go alone.

The SCOTUS case on overturning IEEPA tariffs just took on a more immediate geopolitical charge - with a transatlantic trade war rekindling, and a partial demise of NATO directly on the table.

Woah Nellie, Trump rekindles the trade war with Europe over Greenland. The President announces 10% tariffs on France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK (yes), Denmark and the rest of Scandinavia. The tariffs will rise to 25% on June 1st unless Greenland is sold to the US. 1/

New year, same dynamic. China officially clocked a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025. December export growth was a strong 6.6%, 8% to the EU, higher to some other areas. China's trade surplus with the EU +18%, with Germany +100%. China defended its reliance on export-led growth well in 2025.

#UkraineWar - The #Ukraine reparations loan: How to fix #Europe's financial plumbing, by @sandertordoir.bsky.social & Stephen Paduano | @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

The decision to finance arms for Ukraine through collective EU debt is taboo-breaking--but also part of a larger security turn in Europe. Ophelia Bentley & I have a new piece out that shows how the EU has geopoliticized markets in an unexpected arena: competition policy. doi.org/10.1017/elo.... 1/

"If the Netherlands continues on its current path of parochialism and administrative hostility, it risks not only dismantling the international excellence it spent decades building but also fueling a brain drain toward neighbors who still understand the value of an open academic society."

I had never even heard a hint that generational upward mobility had been higher in the UK than in the US for decades, until seeing that second chart.

Belgium’s fears of a Euroclear liquidity crisis are overblown. There are contractual, regulatory & legal buffers before a default occurs. It's a test Europe should pass write Stephen Paduano & @sandertordoir.bsky.social in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight. Read here: buff.ly/GM6RkHv