"Ich bin mit dem Lieben Gott meistens einverstanden, aber daß Er die Dummheit keine Grenzen gesetzt hat, nehm' ich Ihm dennoch übel." (Konrad Adenauer)

Must-read for a realistic look on the war in Ukraine, "The real fantasy is to believe that Trump’s erratic peace overtures to Russia can end the war on minimally acceptable terms, or that Putin will stop fighting unless forced to do so." www.cer.eu/publications...

Great FT write-up of Ian’s excellent but sobering, realistic and hard-hitting CER paper on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Ian rightly crushes European fantasies about an easy way out. @cerianbond.bsky.social 1/

I wish Argentina all the best. But bringing down inflation with FX intervention was always a temporary game. European politicians jumping on the early innings of a reform programme of a country that, unlike theirs, has gone bust many times was just a bit foolish and wild.

These past few months several German and Dutch politicians heralded Argentina’s economic policy as thé shining example for Europe. That was silly. They clearly should pay more attention to Argentina’s balance of payments predicament — well telegraphed in advance by experts.

What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇 ecfr.eu/publication/...

🎙️ Where does the EU stand one year after the #Draghi report? @aslak.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social discussed this and much more on the latest episode of the #CERpodcast.🎙️ Listen here:

Davide Oneglia poignant here: “France enjoyed an exorbitant privilege in the EU, as a very important member state, and as half of the Franco-German duo (…) Because of this, France got away with a lot of ‘fiscal murder’ over the years.” On the deficit, Macron has been like God - busy elsewhere.

Good reminder by FT unhedged on the two sides of France’s yields narrowing with and now overtaking the ‘periphery’. It reflects France’s ungovernability as much as fiscal improvement elsewhere.

En bovendien, ‘zonder risico’s kan Europa een soevereine techsector sowieso vergeten’, zegt @sandertordoir.bsky.social, econoom van de denktank @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. buff.ly/fEcw70H

Player or playground? Europe sidelined again as US, China cut deals on its soil While the Europeans were not at the table in Madrid, there is a sense that they were once again on the menu - my report

“It’s striking that US & China are ironing out trade disputes on European soil, while Europe itself is largely sidelined,” said @SanderTordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. “The superpowers are playing on Europe’s pitch – but Europe isn’t even in the game.”

On a recent podcast with @maxbergmann.bsky.social, the CSIS crew discusses Europe's efforts to rig up a trade grand strategy as the US and China smash the global trading order. "It's Complicated: A Status Update on EU Trade, Mercosur, and The State of the Union" www.csis.org/podcasts/eur...

Good piece from the FT on one-year Draghi - with reflections from my side. Kicker quote: “You can have a bonfire of regulations and if you have none of the other policies Draghi recommended . . . nothing is going to happen.” By which I mean no liftoff for the economy. www.ft.com/content/4423...

Some reflections in Der Spiegel on how Germany can rekindle its auto sector. Scrapping EV consumer subsidies was self-sabotage for Europe’s most car-centric economy. Reinstating them - and aligning conditions with France's Ecobonus scheme to exclude Chinese cars - is the way.

@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, echoed this thought, describing the move as “a bet on the future of a sovereign tech ecosystem.” buff.ly/0nmpNdD

The ASML-Mistral move is a bet on a sovereign EU tech ecosystem. So my take in Bloomberg aligns with Jefferies - this is more than a narrow ASML business decision. But it fits with ASML's tradition of ensuring a diversified, stable supplier ecosystem, now adding in geopolitics

If it were not so sad, it would be entertaining: Brussels and Berlin blame today’s car sector crisis on regulation that only bites in 2035—while Germany has already lost half its net car exports. Missing a forest of nine million by staring at a tree.

Europe's car industry will shrink, inevitably, but can be helped with support. There's also an opportunity for Europe, which unlike China is open to imports, to collaborate with emerging and developing countries. But it'd require more creative responses than tying ourselves to the WTO cross.

Kom op EU, dit is iets om op te acteren.

China imports only about 1 million cars a year in a 22–25 million market (the country doesn’t love imports). If exports reach 8–9 million annualised, net exports will hit 7–8 million—seven to eight times Germany today, and four times Germany’s peak.

Woah. China now exporting cars at a staggering clip of 9 million vehicles annually. For comparison: Germany’s pre-Diesel scandal peak was 4.5m. And Germany was always far less one-sided: it imports 2x+ as many cars as China (in absolutes). What happened to the idea this would self-extinguish? 1/

'Is het Rapport-Draghi ook úw agenda, Manfred Weber?' "Honderd procent! Werk nu toch aan een Interne Markt voor energie, voor digitale industrie, voor diensten, kapitaalmarkten. Laten we met Draghi voltooien wat Jacques Delors begon." #BetrouwbareBronnen vriendvandeshow.nl/bb/episodes/...

EU steel industry to @alicemhancock.bsky.social et al on tariff needs: "Do we want to produce cars in Europe? Yes or no? Do we want to produce them with European steel? Yes or no? And if that is what we want for many reasons . . . then we need to take some decisions." www.ft.com/content/63e1...

@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social spoke to The Pulse one year on from the Draghi report (from 16:12 mins). buff.ly/FjHjbaC

Sorry, no need for the Brits to reply – just a good old Dutchman here. But Labour should show more courage and push for a much bigger EU–UK reset. Plenty of 'fiscal free' growth, and tax revenue, for both sides to seize. Gravity matters for the EU too: the UK more important than far-away partners.

John is right – the Gilt jitters last week were overblown (IMF bailout? Seriously?). The UK’s fiscal fundamentals don’t look that bad, and the politics of modest budget consolidation are far more favourable than in France. Too much British self-flagellation.

This is a fascinating move www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Banger piece from Brad on '08 and what it tells us about today. Dollar always the safe haven? Well.. "The dollar, famously, rallied during the global financial crisis (which originated in the US). It didn't though rally because foreign investors rushed into US assets" www.cfr.org/article/fore...

It has been one year since the Draghi report – is Europe making strides to fix its ailing economy? I was on Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss it. Some of the points I made on LinkedIn. www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

‘Die zijn wereldwijd een zeer belangrijke koper van zulke langlopende obligaties’, zegt @sandertordoir.bsky.social, hoofdeconoom van het @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social in Berlijn. buff.ly/siKtWzU

John Deere said net income in its most recent quarter was down 29 percent from a year earlier. Higher tariffs, primarily on steel but also on aluminum, have cost the company $300 million so far, with nearly another $300 million expected by the end of the year. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/b...

😂

Secure demand is a must for successful industrial policy It's something US planners have had to learn repeatedly: the military economy can't thrive without civilian customers For rare earths, that's clean energy, and Trump has killed that, writes @triofrancos.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/6ff9...

Remember the UK's jitters that they would be blocked out of orders for the EU's rearmament efforts? Well....all fine aye. The 150 billion in SAFE loans with a bit of a buy-EU logic were never that binding -- the defence rapprochement is on. www.ft.com/content/c84e...

France is not in a full-blown fiscal crisis, but it is high time Paris gets its budget in order by exuding a sense of control. But as to whether the National Rally would do any better -- well, I have my doubts. An obvious point - made somewhat understated in the Telegraph today. 1/2

New piece from the CER. "The EU digital rulebook has grown rapidly in recent years, becoming cumbersome and sometimes hampering trade. The forthcoming digital regulatory package is an opportunity to simplify the rules." www.cer.eu/insights/mak...

Not sure that some in Germany understood that more issuance of their own would imply more market discipline on France. Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.

Scenario on. Part of France’s fiscal woes: more German bund supply potentially means less OAT demand: investors often bought the latter to get core eurozone exposure — bunds were scarce. Not as scarce anymore going forward as Germany issues more debt. Profligate Germany disciplines France.

Totally agree - part of U.S. power has come from being a consumer market that others wanted to access. The EU has more people and similar purchasing power. Focusing on strengthening EU demand can mitigate the risks that come with interdependence in a geopolitically volatile world.

One observation: the Netherlands is now a pretty sizeable Eurozone economy. The biggest of the rest - outside the big four. Good Dutch econ policy would be a biggish deal for Europe.

Germany is firing up a lot of demand — soft data suggest industry is front-running. ECB rate cuts help too. German fiscal was always the most important policy lever to offset lost external demand. Next step for EU bull case: voters get a serious not shambolic Dutch government in the ring. 1/

Key quote: "Domestic orders have risen and are offsetting the weakening demand from abroad. In fact, the best remedy against U.S. tariffs may be to strengthen domestic demand. Many expect to produce more in 12 months than they do today." Spain, Greece lead - Germany edging towards stabilisation.

The piece is here: www.washingtonpost.com/technology/i...

Great chart from WaPo. Print it out. Next time someone says EU carmakers are doomed because Tesla was born in a garage and embodies US business acumen they can’t match, remind them the story is incomplete. Musk’s rise was fuelled by $38 billion in gov contracts, loans, subsidies & tax credits.

Spot on from Brad. Totally right that tariffs can be rewired. Two added points: 1) that Admin might need to pay back IEEPA tariffs is a big deal for Bessent et al; 2) I find odd that alleged trade deficit emergency isn't drawing more attention to our whopping fiscal deficits given S-I identity.

Important from Brad on the court ruling Trump’s IEEPA tariffs illegal. But if Europeans hoped this would sink US tariffs, they’ll be disappointed: the admin has other tools. The other implication is lingering uncertainty — one reason Brussels is keen to seal a deal. www.cfr.org/expert-brief...

Not ChatGPT - this is real @codendahl.bsky.social

The American mind cannot comprehend this: that country as small as the Netherlands can build something this large — or build ships at all. US commercial shipbuilding has withered. I know superyachts stir strong moral feelings. But as an engineering feat, I appreciate it — and the photos are nice.

This sort of hysterical take based on optics never quite delves into how many states involved in these summits actually share a free trade zone, customs union, currency structure and unconditional defence pact