Gestern stellten Dr. Tobias Herbst und Niko Plennis @bundesbank.de in einer ECONtribute Public Lecture den diesjährigen Finanzstabilitätsbericht vor. Vielen Dank an die Referenten, an Cluster-Mitglied @farzado.bsky.social für die Moderation und an das Publikum für die spannende Diskussion!

Amazing study showing that deactivating social media improved mental health. [It has so many coauthors that the sample size was sufficient to run the RCT on themselves.]

Come join us!

I will be sending this email a lot this year. Feel free to tell me it's problematic, but I've had it with students who don't show up and expect me to be in their corner.

I was on a German panel last night, where *every speaker* had strong French links (study etc). And every speaker expressed massive dismay over the state of Franco-German defence-industrial cooperation. How can we not get this right?!

Join us @unibonn.bsky.social! The finance group within the economics department is looking to hire an assistant professor (tenure track): econjobmarket.org/positions/11...

Euro zone manufacturing expanded for first time since early 2022 in August, PMI shows reut.rs/3UVp11o

@vicbar.bsky.social @ralphdehaas.bsky.social @paulinegrosjean.bsky.social & I Matavelli show that adherence to masculinity norms strongly predicts men's labour supply, risk-taking, health behaviours, and support for authoritarian leadership. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Our explanation: they are generalists, and that skill set is in high demand given high industry uncertainty. Generalists are good at curbing volatility, but tend to be old unless they come from a consulting background. Consultant CEOs‘ young age may thus be a contributing factor to firm growth.

Läuft ja super mit der Bekämpfung der AfD durch die "Migrationswende", die ja angeblich die "Mutter aller Probleme" anpackt.

Homebuyers and economists alike closely watch indicators for changes in home prices. How do policies that expand access to credit affect those prices? Our article from Ken Cowles explores the research from @mokuhn.bsky.social, @farzado.bsky.social, and Tobias Herbst:  bit.ly/4czY9vR

[email protected] & IfW Kiel are jointly 🚨 recruiting a Professor of International Economics🚨 (Associate/Full). 👉 apply.interfolio.com/169770 Great opportunity to join Berlin's thriving econ community. No kings here. Deadline: Sep 30, 2025 Please share widely! #EconSky

Very pleased that our local projections dif-in-dif paper is now out in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Joint with @dgirardi.bsky.social, Jorda, and Taylor. It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have). 🧵

Eurovision is over, but this is still a good read: “In the end, even as Eurovision is officially a nonpolitical event, everyone knows it’s really geopolitics in drag.” foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/23/e...

Our Cluster of Excellence secured a second funding period today. As one of the PIs, in magnificent company, I am extremely happy that our efforts especially towards the final stage of the reapplication process paid off. Numerous meetings, retreats, and flights taken have contributed to a unique…

A landmark success! The University of Bonn secured funding for all six existing Clusters of Excellence and both new initiatives – more than any other German university. More: www.uni-bonn.de/en/news/095-... © G. Hübl, V. Lannert, M. Thürbach/ECONtribute, J. F. Saba/UKB, S. Wegener/ML4Q; N. Wietrich

This is bleak reading

New article from Kenneth Cowles explores research from @mokuhn.bsky.social, @farzado.bsky.social, and Tobias Herbst that explains how an expansion of credit in the form of expanded eligibility for VA loans contributed to increases in home prices. bit.ly/4czY9vR

"I'm going to govern in econometrics" is a winning campaign slogan for the ages.

📢 Save the date! The 4th Kiel-CEPR Conference on Geoeconomics takes place this October—this time in Paris 🇫🇷. Thanks to #ScPoEcon @sciencespo.bsky.social for hosting—it’s going to be another great one! 📜 Call for papers coming soon. Stay tuned for more info 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...

„Merz und Söder trieben durch geschürte Empörung ganz bewusst die Leute gegen die Ampelregierung auf die Bäume – und bekommen sie nun, da in den Koalitionsverhandlungen doch wieder schwierige Kompromisse gefragt waren, nicht mehr herunter.“ (@puettmann.bsky.social) www.blaetter.de/ausgabe/2025...

NSF director to resign amid grant terminations, job cuts, and controversy www.science.org/content/arti...

Homebuyers and economists alike closely watch indicators for changes in home prices. How do policies that expand access to credit affect those prices? New article from Ken Cowles explores the research from @mokuhn.bsky.social, @farzado.bsky.social, and Tobias Herbst:  bit.ly/4czY9vR

In 1991, eligibility criteria for VA loans were relaxed, providing a natural experiment to study what happens to house prices when the supply of credit expands. Our new article looks at research from @mokuhn.bsky.social, @farzado.bsky.social, and Tobias Herbst:  bit.ly/4czY9vR

Daniel Brühl hat mich gerade beim Jogging-Endspurt angelächelt. Euer Sonntag kann einpacken!

With Universities Threatened, Can Boston Still Be Boston? "Colleges and teaching hospitals are the cornerstones of the city’s economy — and identity. But federal funding cuts to higher education could change that." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/u...

That’s my Boston — always strong!

Hier nochmal in ruhiger, schriftlicher Form, was ich am Donnerstag bei #Illner gesagt habe: Die baldige Koalition sollte sich darauf fokussieren, das Fiskalpaket zu einer erfolgreichen Wachstumsagenda zu machen und von rein konsumtiven Mehrausgaben absehen. www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...

📢 Tune in: In about 40 minutes, @schularick.bsky.social will discuss Germany's new path of fiscal expansion in the areas of defense and infrastructure with @kschake.bsky.social and @adamposen.bsky.social @piie.com 👇 www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Bullish Germany. "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, a monthly gauge that tracks the expectations of analysts at around 150 financial institutions jumped 25.6 points on month to 51.6 in March, reaching its highest level since February 2022, ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine."

Welcome to debt brake d-day. Germany is quick to adjust to the new global order and is doing so in force. @davideoneglia.bsky.social shows the package outstrips the spending booms that came with the postwar Marshall Plan and with German Reunification in the early 1990s.

L'euro apparaît de plus en plus comme une alternative au $ si l'Europe peut coordonner sa défense et son indépendance énergétique. L'UE doit avoir sa riposte numérique face à une augmentation des $ « stable coins » dans les échanges.

Verliert Deutschland seine Position als „Stabilitätsanker“, wenn das ⚫🔴 (und ggf. 🟢 angepinselte) Fiskalpaket kommt? Behaupten hierzulande einige. Wir haben das in einem neuen Papier analysiert. Antwort: Nein! Das wäre eine Fehlinterpretation der Marktreaktion. 🧵 dezernatzukunft.org/applaus-stat...

Wir haben für Extra-Milliarden für Verteidigung und (!) Infrastruktur geworben. Dort muss das Geld ankommen — zügig, zielgenau und ZUSÄTZLICH. Fokus muss auf Reformen liegen, die das ermöglichen. Nicht auf Mütterrente & Co Mein Interview im @spiegel.de www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/c...

Hugely important thread by Farzad. No free lunch here Berlin - markets signalling they will be confident only if you use your fiscal space to spend well. (Duh). The first CDU/SPD proposal fell short there, to say the least.

#InMerzWeTruss: Recent market shifts reveal nuance in reaction to Germany's fiscal plan. Yesterday: German CDS up & stocks down while EUR & Bund yields stable = concerns about "bad inflation" with less growth than initially envisioned (cf. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...).

Pending some last-minute politicking, Germany will undertake a sea change in fiscal policy. Here are some of the wide-ranging repercussions: on.ft.com/3FfRnyC

Could the Nobel committee please explain to the President of the US that trying to bully a heroic country into capitulating to an invader and an aggressor will NEVER be rewarded by a Nobel Peace Prize? @nobelprize.bsky.social @nobelpeaceprize.bsky.social

“Clear evidence of growth expectations: The steepening German yield curve, rising stock prices, euro appreciation, and stable CDS prices collectively indicate that markets interpret Germany’s fiscal expansion as growth-enhancing rather than a reckless fiscal bet.” www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...

📈 Die Finanzmärkte vertrauen auf 🇩🇪s fiskalische Transformation! In ihrem neuen Kiel Policy Brief zeigen @farzado.bsky.social & @filpet4.bsky.social, dass die jüngsten Marktreaktionen bestätigen: Deutschland bleibt ein sicherer Hafen – selbst bei signifikanter fiskalischer Expansion 👇

New @kiel.institute Policy Brief (with @filpet4.bsky.social): How are capital markets reacting to Germany's proposed €500bn infrastructure investment + defense spending boost? Surging Bund yields reflect growth optimism, not default concerns -- in contrast to the UK's 2022 Truss episode.

Dusting off my old Oxford English Dictionary and consulting carefully, I could not find "attack friends and submit to enemies" as a definition of the word "strength."

Why Dean Karlan, Chief Economist of USAID resigned yesterday: "I was ready to rebuild from wherever we ended up to identify the most effective programs, figure out how to get them back in place, and to recommend new awards. But I received no response. Zero engagement." www.npr.org/sections/goa...

The Federal Reserve is not as independent from the executive branch as we’d like to think. The NY Fed just cancelled this Thursday’s @aeacswep.bsky.social reception at #EEA2025 and withdrew from our summer fellowship program. Both support women and underrepresented groups in economics. #EconSky

We’re happy to host the 1st European Economic Theory Conference in Bonn next fall! Submissions in all areas of economic theory are welcome.

This is competitive authoritarianism in action.

If Trump wants to see elections in Ukraine, all he has to do is use the power he keeps talking about to get the Russian invaders off Ukrainian soil. Then martial law in Ukraine ends, and elections will follow.

After the federal layoffs No staff to collect admission! So the JFK Museum is free Doubt this is a money-saver But free museum 👍🏼

Never before in recent history was it more evident that a single letter in a last name could make such a painfully significant difference: www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9S5...

Es geht wieder los mit dem YES! Schulwettbewerb, dieses Jahr mit dem spannenden Thema "Finance for Equality" von ECONtribute-Clustermitglied @farzado.bsky.social @unibonn.bsky.social :👉 econtribute.de/de/econtribu.... Heute fand das Kick-Off statt! Wir freuen uns auf die Ergebnisse! @dfg.de