Question for Polish-EU law people - can Nawrocki veto this - or only ln his own 🦘 interpretation of constitutional identity? @profpech.bsky.social ?

It seems that Starmer’s twigged Polanski for the toxic charlatan he is - but Labour MPs haven’t so this is badly judged, notwithstanding Spencer’s “good old days” class war type speech.

How the techniques of Lynton Crosby, the Joe Schmidt of political strategy, became obsolete

Quite. After years of the right leaning commentariat giving Reform a free pass, the Greens’ supporters on the left are now doing the same, presenting their foreign policy extremism economic illiteracy and outright shamelessness (“lower bills”) as good. Bad day for good government.

9/9 But it’s difficult to see where to could come from. Badenoch would need a major reinvention and to discover self-discipline: she’s probably left that a bit late. The Lib Dems need a higher wattage leader, but the party doesn’t seem to have the appetite to replace Davey.

8/ Between the greens’ Melonchon à l’Anglaise, with Polanski using his Jewishness effectively as a shield against people who might attack their focus on Israel and billionaires as a bit off, there’s a space for charismatic competent centrism

By election takeaways. 🧵 1/ Candidates matter. Greens had ideal candidate for the job, Reform didn’t.

The Tories sat this one out while hoping reform wouldn’t win because momentum from their victory would have put pressure on.

They’ve made this up because there’s no such presidential power

Only here is there a sizable and vocal “I have a lot of concerns about it but it’s clearly a big deal and very useful for some things” contingent

"Trump Pushes to End Russia’s War in Ukraine Within a Month" Ukraine should ignore Trump. He is just a junior Putin supporter. He should e given no voice or place at any table involving Ukraine. Kick that enemy out! www.kyivpost.com/post/70826?u...

1 When our Lord and Master Jesus Christ said, ``Repent'' (Mt 4:17), he willed the entire life of believers to be one of repentance 🧵

Viktor Orban is now 20 points behind in the polls - and so he has ordered the military to guard “key energy facilities” against a possible Ukrainian “attack.” Hungarians fear he plans a fake national security emergency or false-flag incident before the April 12 election apnews.com/article/hung...

A coup de maine?

One for the accidental partridge series

Caveat here that I'm not a political scientist & haven't studied people's reasons for voting Green. That said, I can't get over the reductionism of equating Green support with traditional conservationist views & a generalised love of nature.

This is right - and chimes with Ziblatt (Conservative Parties and the birth of Democracy) and Fawcett (Conservatism: the birth of a tradition). The people w the legitimacy to make this case are on the liberal right. I just hope this includes more than @daliborrohac.bsky.social and me.

Thought: Economics is powerful (and hard) because it incorporates dynamic thinking often missing from other disciplines especially in public policy. Even if this often requires a narrow understanding of hunan behaviour, the narrowness makes it the dynamism tractable.

I think this is quite a bad piece of thinking www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic?hi... but I understand it has caused a bit of a flutter. In the opening paragraphs it literally has Nominal GDP soaring AND money velocity cratering ...

Come and work with me (and some other people who are nice too) 89up.org/article/were...

Excellent piece by @cerianbond.bsky.social. Central message: we can’t afford Ukraine to lose, so we’d better ensure that Russia is defeated, and as long as Trump is around, that needs to be done without significant American help. Needs effort. But well within European capacity. Now get to work!

The reasons LLMs don’t work terribly well for a lot of things is that there’s a lot more to writing than communicating facts and discoveries.

Brave policy before a by election in Longsight

Observations: UA is holding Russians to stalemate while outnumbered. Offensive ops certainly need a lot more manpower and equipment, and especially air power. Unless that can be provided continued attrition is most viable strategy for forcing RU to abandon its imperialist war aims.

1/ Last time I checked the arts which are cheap to teach subsidised expensive physical sciences and medicine 2/ Britain’s creative sector is huge. What do people think those people study? 3/ In Britain you can generally get any graduate job with any degree…

Doing deals with warlords is “liberal” now?

Discussing this article in two separate group chats with other women in tech, and I think it gets a lot wrong. The sexism isn't worse in the tech industry now, it's just that people outside the industry can see it too. I've worked in tech since the 90s and disdain and misogyny has always been there

We need ways of making these decisions immune to vetos by individual member states.

in which I write many things which will look ironic when I am starving in the gutter begging for a few hours work tagging images for my robot overlords. backofmind.substack.com/p/finally-we...

If you don’t buy our weapons we won’t sell you our weapons is an argument I suppsoe

Hungarian-election adjacent consideration of the theory and practice of the honeytrap, for Monocle. monocle.com/affairs/hung...

Charles III & I, like James VI and I. A new James would be… James VIII, III and I

This should cause some concern for some strong campaigners against antisemitism who’ve recently affiliated themselves to reform.

Renewables now account for over half of installed power capacity in Poland, with the climate minister calling it a “breakthrough moment”. However, because renewables are intermittent, they still generate less than a third of the country’s electricity.

Good :)

It depends on what is meant by “works…”

Never tried in a democracy

It’s a new low

Brakes put on accelerator act

This is going to very wrong. It’ll go wrong for reasons that we’ve known about for centuries and they start with this man, embalmed and on display at UCL 🧵

I do fear someone will copy this code set up RevuR2 sell it to journal publishers and endure academics’ hard work is then rejected by an opaque and unaccountable process …oh wait

"if you face things that threaten the stability of your country, I know that President Trump would be very interested" is an interesting thing to read weeks ahead of elections for which Orban is trailing behind badly.

AI, meaning unsupervised statistical learning on large datasets, predates LLMs too - and is very useful.

Particularly because the money in question is military funding (SAFE) It’s bizarre indeed that for Orban’s regime to benefit from SAFE as he’s not aligned with EU foreign and defence policy.

This has been clear since the beginning. It does not make AI useless - because there are fields where statistical prediction is useful. But OpenAI misled investors and customers about its abilities. The legal question: when did they first know (like tobacco companies knowing smoking kills)

People are writing about European powers retuning rearming and thinking about it in terms of nation-state rivalry without considering enough that Europe has the most developed mechanisms for containing such rivalry anywhere invented and these will affect defence policy.

I largely agree with this for simple data analysis. It gets out of its depth when you do something non standard and the code suffers, but for a lot of simple quant it appears very useful. A challenge for someone to attempt : - get it to accurately do an MRP of a poll and replicate it.