America’s European allies are caught in the crosshairs, struggling to hang together while calculating their response to the US war effort— and to maintain a veneer of independencehttps://globalaffairs.org/commentary/analysis/war-middle-east-ushers-world-might-makes-right

My latest writing for the @ChicagoCouncil on Global Affairs. From Davos to Munich to the Board of Peace, recent events have made clear that the West is scrambling. It is an open question as to whether the West will hold together and can remain relevant. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

This week, American Enterprise Institute's @kschake.bsky.social joined Council President & CEO @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social to discuss how the relationship between between America's civilian leaders and its military is evolving. Watch the full conversation: bit.ly/4qOEMVp

And we’re live — @munsecconf.bsky.social starts in 4 days. Great contributions by @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social Anne-Marie Slaughter @james-rogers.bsky.social @jpuglierin.bsky.social @claudmajor.bsky.social Patrick Keller @nicolange.bsky.social @joerglau.bsky.social Sophie Eisentraut & columnists

The Trump administration's recently released National Defense Strategy "wholly ignores one of the primary stressors in the global security environment: climate change," write Council Senior Nonresident Fellow @busbyj2.bsky.social and Greg Pollock. They explore the implications in @foreignpolicy.com:

Recently, the Council welcomed our 2026 cohort of Emerging Leaders, together with many program alumni. We are excited to kick off a new season of programming! Special thanks to Ashish Lal for supporting this event, and to Endy Zemenides and the Hellenic American Leadership Council for hosting!

Last night in Davos, Council President and CEO @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social joined a dinner co-hosted with Aon, the @ifrc.org, the World Bank, and the @iom.int, focused on reimagining humanitarian finance and reducing volatility in forced migration.

My latest, will Davos go to Detroit? globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

Senator Durbin speaks live now at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs about transatlantic relations. The Senator travelled to Denmark as part of a bipartisan Congressional delegation. Media raises multiple questions about ICE m.youtube.com/watch?v=5BN5...

LIVE NOW: IL Senator @durbin.senate.gov holds a press conference at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs to discuss his recent bipartisan, bicameral congressional delegation to Denmark. Tune in now: bit.ly/4pOjsih

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My latest. This time on Greenland. Hope you will give it a read. In deploying troops to Greenland, Europeans are handing the president a gift: a pretense for backing down. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

Which armed conflicts will define 2026? And what forces—whether local, regional, or global—will shape their trajectories? On 2/5, @crisisgroup.org President and CEO @comfortero.crisisgroup.org joins @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social to discuss what to watch in the year ahead. brnw.ch/21wZ7TH

Violent crackdowns, internet shutdowns, and a rising death toll. I spoke with Azadeh Moaveni of @nyu_journalism and @sanamvakil.bsky.social of @chathamhouse.org on the Deep Dish podcast this week about these developments and more in Iran. brnw.ch/21wZ7LC

How are recent conflicts stress-testing global alliances? This week, former US Ambassador to NATO and Council Distinguished Nonresident Fellow Julianne Smith joined @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social for a conversation on the future of alliances in today’s changing world.

I am thrilled to welcome Dr Evan Medeiros to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social as Distinguished Nonresident Fellow on China. Medeiros is currently the Penner Family Chair at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service brnw.ch/21wZ5A4

"You can feel this palpable sense of nervousness and anxiety on the other side of the pond," Council Distinguished Nonresident Fellow Ambassador Julianne Smith says of the current state of the transatlantic relationship. Watch her conversation with @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social ➡️ brnw.ch/21wZ3yC

There is little evidence that what we had come to assume was and should be the top geopolitical priority for the United States, namely managing the China challenge, is actually the top priority. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

From US threats over Greenland and Arctic tensions to instability in Venezuela and the Western Hemisphere, America's alliances are facing new pressures. On 1/13, Julianne Smith joins @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social to discuss how these actions are testing US alliances. brnw.ch/21wYU7l

Looking forward to speaking with Ambassador Julie Smith on Tuesday.

Some initial thoughts by me and some super smart colleagues @global-affairs.bsky.social

"This is a US that cares about geopolitical competition," the Council's @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social tells @cnn.com. "It's also willing to push the boundaries of what we have come to see as normal, expected, legitimate, international behavior." More on the US intervention in Venezuela ⤵️

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were captured by US military forces on Saturday amid a "large-scale strike" against the country. What comes next? Chicago Council experts assess the immediate and long-term stakes for the region and the world. ⤵️

"When oil trading begins on Sunday night..it will be the first test of whether Trump’s exhortations that the United States will “run” Venezuela will inspire confidence." Read our latest expert analysis by @rb312.bsky.social globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

We continue to add new expert commentary to this link. Latest piece by @CooleyOnEurasia on the implications for Russia and China. Note that Venezuela is China's largest debtor in Latin America. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

This one well worth reading

I had not even considered this but ..

"The Trump administration’s attack on Venezuela gives Beijing another opening to portray China as a more responsible international actor than the United States."

If drug trafficking, an illegitimate electoral victory, or control of oil is the new bar for a US military takeover, we are in for quite a rough ride in 2026. My comment, alongside that of several colleagues @global-affairs.bsky.social globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

Read @busbyj2.bsky.social "Washington’s capacity to manage and support a transition in Venezuela is suspect given the downscaling of diplomacy and development assets at State, the dissolution of USAID, and the reorientation of the Department of Defense" globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

"Beijing has had an “all-weather strategic partnership” with Venezuela and President Nicolás Maduro in particular, based in large part on China’s need for oil and Venezuela’s need for investment" Read Paul Heer of the @global-affairs.bsky.social Chicago Council globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

What led to this moment in Venezuela? @ceprdc.bsky.social's Francisco Rodríguez joined Council President & CEO @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social on the Deep Dish podcast last fall to unpack the forces shaping the crisis—and how they have informed Trump's approach. 🎧: globalaffairs.org/commentary/p...

Read commentary by @global-affairs.bsky.social experts at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Lord Jim O'Neill, @dandrezner.bsky.social, Paul Heer, and more. On Venezuela, Trump, and what to expect. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

<— Honored to have been a guest on @gideonrachman.bsky.social’s last FT podcast of 2025, also featuring @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social and @jamescrabtree.bsky.social. www.ft.com/content/1e62...

Find the full series here, with excellent contributions from @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social Julie Smith, Jim O'Neill, @dandrezner.bsky.social @profpaulpoast.bsky.social and many others. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

Pleased to contribute to @global-affairs.bsky.social series reflecting on the US at 250. I wrote about the US & Europe's unshared futures, & ask whether their future will be based on democracy, human rights & rule of law - or on the nativism the US seeks to export globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

Predictions and Reflections on America at 250. Contributions from leading thinkers in the US and Europe globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

Thursday we will host Dr Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation, India's premier think tank, for a conversation on India's global role globalaffairs.org/events/third...

As India becomes more of a key player in global affairs, what lies ahead for the global order? Join Observer Research Foundation President Samir Saran and Council President and CEO @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social on 12/18 as they discuss India's policy strategy and global implications. brnw.ch/21wXBFm

Are the US and China already locked into a cold war? Earlier this week, University of Chicago's John Mearsheimer and @harvardkennedy.bsky.social's Rana Mitter, and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social analyzed that question and more in a dynamic conversation on the US-China relationship. brnw.ch/21wXE4o

Important dissention on the legality of strikes

Really enjoyed being on @global-affairs.bsky.social Deep Dish podcast this week with @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social and Andrew Oros of @stimsoncenter.bsky.social to discuss the changing demographics of East Asia and what it means for our future. Give it a listen: brnw.ch/21wXt8f

I was happy to join Leslie Vinjamuri (@leslievinjamuri.bsky.social) of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Professor Robert Howse from NYU’s Law School on this week’s Deep Dish podcast to discuss "Trump - Canada's Friend or Foe?" Listen: brnw.ch/21wX4N6

Tariffs, Trump, and Trudeau’s legacy. On Deep Dish this week, I talked with @howserob from @nyulaw and @rolandparis from @uOttawaGSPIA and @ChathamHouse about how these factors impact the global leadership of Canada. brnw.ch/21wX4N7

Estonian President Alar Karis joins Council President & CEO @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social on the Council stage to discusses Estonia's experience navigating digital transformation and geopolitical pressures in an increasingly complex world. 💻 WATCH: brnw.ch/21wX0e7

Tariffs, tech controls, and the CCP Plenum. On Deep Dish this week, I talked with @georgetownsfs’s Professor Evan Medeiros about what these means in the context of the US-China relationship and China’s global ambitions. brnw.ch/21wWGem

@sanamvakil.bsky.social and @DanByman joined me to talk about the Phase One Deal. Video link here www.youtube.com/live/EzP2FsA...

After two years of bloodshed, an end to the war in Gaza may be in sight. Join @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @sanamvakil.bsky.social, Sanam Vakil, and Daniel Byman as they unpack the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal and the challenges ahead. Tune in to the live stream at 3 p.m. CT today ➡️ brnw.ch/21wWuzM

The UN is turning 80 at a moment of crisis: wars, budget cuts, and an antagonistic US president. I had the privilege of speaking with two UN experts, @crisisgroup.org’s @richardgowan1.bsky.social and @kofiannanfdn.bsky.social's Corinne Momal-Vanian. Listen: brnw.ch/21wW44w

The UN is turning 80 at a moment of crisis: wars, budget cuts, and an antagonistic US president. I had the privilege of speaking with two UN experts, @crisisgroup.org’s @richardgowan1.bsky.social and @kofiannanfdn.bsky.social's Corinne Momal-Vanian. Listen: brnw.ch/21wW44w