POMP AND CIRCUMSTANCE, SIGNIFYING NOTHING. That's my Trump-Xi take... Few deals. No breakthroughs. But thankfully no US concessions on Taiwan or tech. Hard to call this summit a success, since it didn't really address any US-China structural problems. Yet not a disaster either.

"In the meeting, Trump did not respond to Xi’s comments about Taiwan and moved on to the next topic without acknowledging them at all, according to a White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive closed-door meeting." (From the Washington Post)

Prediction: Whatever transpires at the Trump-Xi summit this week, it will have a very short shelf life. Then we can all start spinning narratives again until their next meeting.

Is that dark portrait not accurate?

"The preoccupation in Washington and Tokyo with the threat of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan diverts attention—intentionally or otherwise—away from the erosion and obfuscation of their 'one China' policies." nationalinterest.org/feature/chin...

Washington and Tokyo appear to have made their "one China" policies contingent on a Chinese commitment not to use force against Taiwan--a commitment that Beijing never made. nationalinterest.org/feature/chin...

Get ready for a kitschy cringey whitewashed Christian nationalist celebration of the United States' 250th anniversary! www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/a...

DNI Gabbard in today's Congressional testimony: “the only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president.”

Here's the US Intelligence Community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released today: www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...

1/ A new book by Odd Arne Westad, “The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History,” is a must-read on the future of US-China relations. It compares today’s international environment with the eve of World War I, drawing lessons and warnings of immediate relevance. Some key excerpts:

"It is too soon to say how degraded American power will be by the end of this administration."

Stop trying to understand or explain Trump's foreign policy thinking in terms of logic, coherence, insight, or strategy. It's just the functional equivalent of a Magic 8 Ball.

For those Republicans who dismiss Trump's critics as afflicted by "Trump Derangement Syndrome": (1) Are there any things Trump has done that you don't like? (2) What do you think should be done about those things? (3) Why isn't something being done about those things?

Great thread. Operation Epic Fury could also reinforce Beijing's belief that time is on its side with regard to Taiwan: if the US preoccupation with Iran undermines Taiwan's confidence in US attention and protection, it might reduce the possibility that Beijing sees the need to use force.

Just FYI: Iran is a big country. And its population is 25% that of the United States. Imagine trying to bomb an area this large into submission.

Will he give the Nobel Peace Prize back to María Corina Machado?

Yes! Folks should stop fantasizing that the war in Iran has left China scrambling. See also: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

At a time when the Pentagon warns about competition with China, voluntarily pulling U.S. military officers out of the world’s most important research and policy institutions is not a show of strength. It is a strategic retreat. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Great quote on the PBS Newshour from former US diplomat Alan Eyre: "I think this administration is trying to justify the war the same way Jackson Pollock used to paint. You just throw a bucket of reasons up against the canvas and hope the result looks good."

Hegseth said at the press conference this morning that Trump's decision to attack Iran was "unlike other presidents [whose] foolish policies of the past that recklessly pulled us into things that were not tethered to actual clear objectives."

"For they sow the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind." Hosea 8:7

Trump challenged the Democrats to agree that "The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” Here's an alternative: "The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not make money for the president's family and friends."

Rubio in Munich: "Our great midwestern heartland was built by German farmers and craftsmen who transformed empty plains into a global agricultural powerhouse." But the plains were not in fact empty. Native farmers and craftsmen had been here for thousands of years.

I keep hearing from politicians from both US parties about what "the American people want" or what "the American people want to know." But many of these are things that I do not want or do not want to know.

Takaichi's election victory does not erase the fact that her comments about Taiwan in the Diet last November obfuscated and eroded Tokyo's one-China policy. That issue still needs to be addressed and persuasively clarified.

People should stop talking and thinking about the Trump Administration's National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy as if Trump himself knows what they say.

"Washington’s 'one China' policy continues to erode, with potentially dire consequences if Washington persists in denying this erosion and Beijing continues to find the denials unpersuasive." nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...

The DNI is pursuing crackpot conspiracy theories about the 2020 election being “stolen” by Biden, while lowering the intelligence community’s defenses against future foreign election interference. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

"Washington’s 'one China' policy continues to erode, with potentially dire consequences if Washington persists in denying this erosion and Beijing continues to find the denials unpersuasive." nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...

Artificial intelligence may be a form of intelligence, but it will always be artificial, and thus imperfect. Human intelligence is also imperfect, but as a human I will always have more confidence and faith in it.

Has a consensus emerged that when Trump told the New York Times last week that his power was limited only by his "own morality," that he actually meant to say "mortality"?

Best Trump lines from the New York Times interview: "Everything I’ve read has been proven." "I did do that? When did I do that?" "I always respect the results of elections, but the elections in our country are rigged." "I just hate dishonest people." "I love democracy. I’m a big fan."

(1/3) It’s appropriate to criticize China for accusing the US of violating international law in Venezuela but not accusing Russia of violating it in Ukraine. But Beijing obviously has diplomatic reasons for condemning Washington and for not condemning Moscow. . . .

"The Trump administration’s attack on Venezuela gives Beijing another opening to portray China as a more responsible international actor than the United States."

Something was needed to distract attention from the fifth anniversary of January 6.

In the current dispute between Japan and China over Taiwan, Washington and Tokyo are relying on a highly selective reading of history. They are also obscuring the erosion over time of their positions on “one China.” My take: nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...

A very useful primer on the history and details of the current Japan-China dispute over Taiwan: responsiblestatecraft.org/japan-china-...

“Many commentators have readily characterized all this as a typically unreasonable Chinese overreaction to a relatively benign—even if ill-advised—Japanese statement. But the shadow of much history looms over this episode.” nationalinterest.org/feature/how-...

Contrary to the prevailing view, "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is not an affliction of his critics. It's actually what mobilizes his supporters.

(1/2) This spot-on analysis from @rushdoshi.bsky.social presents Washington with a choice: either recognize the constraints of interdependence and pursue some form of cooperative coexistence with China . . . www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/o...

"You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." The Trump Administration is engaged in a comprehensive assault on the truth in an effort to influence what you think you "know." What does that tell you about Trump's intentions regarding freedom? Think about that.

Here's a thought: China's approach to Russia's war in Ukraine is comparable to Washington's approach to Israel's war in Gaza: rationalizing and excusing the behavior of a highly problematic strategic partner. Discuss.

The most immediate and important thing Congress can do is to call Adm Holsey, Lt Gen McGee and other cashiered officers to testify about their experience since Trump took office. Unless, that is, the GOP majority can’t handle the truth about what Trump is doing to the armed forces. wapo.st/4nEItvh

"[I]f Trump can accept China as a peer power rather than constantly seeking new sources of leverage and can impose his vision of great power peace on his fractious administration, he could finally swing the world off a trajectory toward conflict."

What exactly are the Republicans getting from Trump in reward for their loyalty and acquiescence? What substantive and sustainable gains? (Do they really believe he is making America great?)

Is it a coincidence that the amount of money Trump is demanding from the taxpayer-funded Justice Department is about the same as the estimated cost of the new White House ballroom that he said would not be paid for by taxpayers?

I’m very excited for this discussion with @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S H Wong. They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy. Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET quincyinst.org/events/what-...

Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?

This cogent analysis from @zackcooper.bsky.social is an alarm bell for those who have failed to recognize--or refused to acknowledge--for the last 15 years that history has been moving on from the role that the United States (thought it) had in East Asia.

Wouldn't it be funny if the Republicans realized that Harris would have created fewer problems for them, and would have been easier for them to deal with?