“Without a plan for terminating a war in Taiwan, Washington would risk repeating the pattern of U.S. strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan that many Trump officials critiqued: winning the first battle but losing the war,” argues @zackcooper.bsky.social.

The team at ChinaFile asked eight of us to assess the state of play in US-China relations and who has the upper hand in the ongoing negotiations. I think it's pretty clear. Beijing is showing its capabilities and biding its time. And it's working. www.chinafile.com/conversation...

I'm just going to leave this here... 🤔 www.aei.org/foreign-and-...

In the last year we have gone from: BEIJING begging WASHINGTON to allow it to buy advanced semiconductors to... WASHINGTON begging BEIJING to allow it to sell advanced semiconductors I give up. 🤦‍♂️

ASIA INSIGHT PODCAST: Zack Cooper (@zackcooper.bsky.social), Bee Yun Jo, and Lavina Lee discuss the sustainability of U.S. extended #deterrence and #nuclear restraint in #Australia, #Japan, and #SouthKorea in light of three trends. www.nbr.org/publication/...

After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed. I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization. A thread on my new piece for RSIS...

Is the "Indo-Pacific" dead? 🪦 Today the Pentagon issued a statement labeling the "Asia-Pacific" the priority theater. Coming ahead of the National Defense Strategy release and amidst heightened tensions with India, this will definitely raise some eyebrows!

Appreciate the thoughtful book review of Tides of Fortune this weekend in @financialtimes.com. Thanks @jamescrabtree.bsky.social! www.ft.com/content/47d6...

Today was a tough day. Most mornings the last decade my day started with a phone call from Rich Armitage. But not this morning. Rich was a friend, a mentor, and a business partner. He was my biggest supporter (and sometimes my toughest critic). He was a giant. What a life.

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Looking forward to joining this RAND event tomorrow on the US-Japan alliance - great lineup! If you’re in Los Angeles (or want to stream), join us here: www.japanhousela.com/events/rand-...

Delighted to join so many fantastic scholars as part of the Wilson China Fellowship for the coming year. Thanks to the Wilson Center and Carnegie Corporation for bringing together this great group! www.wilsoncenter.org/article/wils...

Really useful discussion of the core tensions to Trump's foreign policy strategy.

Prioritization or Retrenchment? I think this is the central question for the US strategic community today. Here’s my new piece trying to add some historical perspective to this the strategic debate. Read it here: theamericanenterprise.com/the-trump-ad...

Today's the day: Tides of Fortune is officially released! I'm so excited to get to share this book with the world after over a decade of work on this project. We've got a video explainer coming soon, and a bunch of launch events, but for now, a few words of thanks...

Today in @ForeignAffairs I preview part of my book, which argues that China's turn toward power projection was both inevitable and badly timed (for Beijing). Here's the short version... [1/5] www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...

One more week until Tides of Fortune is released! Feels good to finally hold a copy in my hand. So now it is real, but whether it is spectacular will be up to others to judge :) yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...

What does a second Trump administration mean for Taiwan? My take here for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social: thedispatch.com/article/trum...

I frequently get asked how Donald Trump's personal interactions might shape US relationships in Asia over the next four years. Here's my take for RSIS: - Trump prizes "strong" (and conservative) leaders - Alignment with the US is not a precondition www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...

Will the Trump team seek unipolarity or embrace multipolarity? Primacists emphasize peace through strength, but prioritizers say US power has declined and we can’t be everywhere. Who will prevail in Trump 2.0? I examine this in a short piece for RSIS: www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...

My thoughts on Joe Biden and his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad U.S. Steel decision… www.aei.org/foreign-and-...

Want to know what the Congress has planned for Asia in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act? Noah Burke and I read all the Asia provisions so you don't have to. Here are 5 things to watch (plus a full list of all Asia-related sections). www.aei.org/foreign-and-...

On AUSTRALIA IN THE WORLD, @zackcooper.bsky.social & I talk through Trump 2.0. What do we know about Trumpworld’s foreign policy at this point? What are the implications for Australia’s management of the alliance? Apple: podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/a... Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4To2...

👀 2/25/25 www.amazon.com/dp/030026867X/

Net Assessment just crossed the 1 million listens threshold. I can only claim partial credit, but great job by my co-hosts Chris Preble and Melanie Marlowe. Here's our latest: warontherocks.com/2024/01/glob...

Some light weekend reading from me on U.S. strategy toward China... foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/15/d...

Net Assessment is back! Listen here: www.warontherocks.com/2023/12/dysf...

I give up.

As we head into tomorrow's fourth (and last?) debate of the 2024 race, Connor Fiddler and I lay out 5 items to watch related to China/Asia for Marketwatch: www.marketwatch.com/story/5-ques...

Looking forward to being back in the Bay Area next week! I'll be at UC Berkeley (don't disown me Stanford friends) on Tuesday to discuss Japan's expanding role in the Indo-Pacific. Maybe a few US-China reflections too... Sign up here if you're available: callink.berkeley.edu/event/9527783

A big thank you to friends in Japan for hosting our group from AEI last week. A great series of visits and conversations. www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/press/...

I fear that a serious crisis is unfolding at Second Thomas Shoal. China appears determined to prevent resupply efforts by the Philippines, as they did most dangerously in 2014. Read a short summary of that case here: amti.csis.org/counter-co-2... Risky days ahead. Buckle up.

Wonderful to be back in Taiwan this week meeting with President Tsai and other leaders here in Taipei along with @AEI colleagues and friends! And a big thank you to @TECRO_USA for helping us set up such a valuable agenda. english.president.gov.tw/News/6626

I had a great time joining my old friend Darren Lim on his Australia in the World podcast! We talked about Australian defense policy, AUKUS, and shared a few memories of the great Allan Gyngell. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/a...

Hi friends! So good to see many of you here and looking forward to resuming our very nerdy foreign policy debates here. Thanks for the welcome Kori!