ICYMI: in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I discuss how an embrace and even enthusiasm for using violence abroad inevitably links back to violence at home.

With Britain, Canada, and Australia officially recognizing Palestine as a state, I'm re-upping this recent @wpr.bsky.social piece on the topic. Some worry that this recognition rewards Hamas. It's not clear to me how that is the case, since the recognition is conditional on Hamas not being in power.

During his Riverside sermon, MLK said that when a country embraces "massive doses of violence to solve its problems to bring about the changes it wanted" abroad, that directly leads to embracing the same approach home. In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I explain how we are seeing that dynamic today

It's not just that the world is violent. It's that the violence is now being openly embraced, even encourage...at home and abroad. I explore the world's growing "lawlessness" in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

It's not just that the world is violent. It's that the violence is now being openly embraced, even encourage...at home and abroad. I explore the world's growing "lawlessness" in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

Next week, join @polisciatnu.bsky.social's Ian Hurd, @loyolachicago.bsky.social's Juliet Sorensen, and Council fellows Cécile Shea and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social as they discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the United Nations' 80th anniversary. brnw.ch/21wVTkc

On Monday, I'm moderating this @global-affairs.bsky.social panel on the Future of the United Nations and Multilaterialism. It's going to be a great discussion. For those interested and in the Chicago area, hope you can make it! globalaffairs.org/events/futur...

Who are China's Friends? According to a recent survey by the @global-affairs.bsky.social of the Chinese public, Xi was right to have Putin and Kim as his "guests of honor" at the recent military parade.

Of all the documents we read for "Wheat at War" (available here: www.amazon.com/Wheat-War-Al...), a favorite was from the French Foreign Ministry archives: the list of delegates to the 1916 Paris Economic Conference of the Allied Nations. It seems Jean Monnet forgot to pay his registration fee ;)

ICYMI: I explore "What China Wants?" in my latest @wpr.bsky.social. The TL,DR is that China wants to be at the center, but not the leader, of a new global order.

This is really interesting. Also properly referenced and with insight / knowledge few I've seen have.

Just posted a discussion explaining how I identified "What China Wants" in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social (explaining that this piece as a mix of "Pundit Paul" and "Professor Poast") 👇

China might aspire to regional primacy. But when it comes to global hegemony, Xi doesn’t seem to want China to be the “unipolar power,” @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.

What does China (or, more specifically, Xi Jinping) want? Are they seeking to overturn the existing international order? Simply reform it? Embrace "hegemony"? I explore those questions -- based on a series of Xi speeches -- in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social.

What does China (or, more specifically, Xi Jinping) want? Are they seeking to overturn the existing international order? Simply reform it? Embrace "hegemony"? I explore those questions -- based on a series of Xi speeches -- in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social.

We did the 99 page test for our book Wheat at War. Page 99 jumps right into the shipping problems in WWI. US entry into the war made tonnage concerns SO MUCH WORSE. Interested? See our 99 page test to find out more! page99test.blogspot.com/2025/09/rose...

Our new book, "Wheat at War", was just put through the "Page 99" test! The test is simple: open any book to page 99. The contents *should* convey the book as a whole. How well did it do? As we explain in the below post, the test worked...to a degree :)

Just shared my immediate thoughts on Poland invoking NATO's Article 4

Greatly enjoyed joining the "Clearer than Truth" podcast to discuss current directions is US foreign policy and global order

Just posted my immediate thoughts regarding Israel's strike in Doha

"Hegemonism" may not be in "China's DNA" (according to Xi Jinping), but what does China's public want? According to new polling by @global-affairs.bsky.social & @cartercenter.bsky.social, the public is split on being dominant or sharing global leadership.

“None of this is to say that Trump has ‘bought into’ the idea of maintaining the ‘Liberal International Order’...But Trump does see China as a competitor and is recognizing that Russia under Putin is not keen on aligning with the United States.” Pleased I could offer my views in this Salon piece.

“None of this is to say that Trump has ‘bought into’ the idea of maintaining the ‘Liberal International Order’...But Trump does see China as a competitor and is recognizing that Russia under Putin is not keen on aligning with the United States.” Pleased I could offer my views in this Salon piece.

The Trump administration’s pressure campaign on the Fed is not a global outlier, but there are still reasons to sound the alarms. As @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes, that’s because the Fed is special, both domestically and internationally.

ICYMI: Why you should not be indifferent to Central Bank Independence.

Central bank independence is a pillar of not only the Federal Reserve, but the entire global monetary system. Trump's desire to undo that independence is the latest example of politicians seeking to undermine that pillar. My latest for @wpr.bsky.social www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trump-federa...

Trump’s pressure campaign against the Fed has global precedents, but its impact is still of outsized importance, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.

Central bank independence is a pillar of not only the Federal Reserve, but the entire global monetary system. Trump's desire to undo that independence is the latest example of politicians seeking to undermine that pillar. My latest for @wpr.bsky.social www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trump-federa...

19th Century Presidency Alert 👇 www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/u...

IR Book of the Week! "So You Want to Own Greenland?" by Elizabeth Buchanan. Trump is only the latest leader to desire controlling the key arctic island. This book explores why and how, going forward, it will be central to the "Great Game" of arctic competition.

I just my immediate thoughts on the "Axis of Upheaval" gathering in Beijing 👇

Each summer, I help run the Summer Institute in Social Research Methods (SISRM) at the University of Chicago. This summer we had 80 undergraduates learning about HOW to conduct social science research, and then becoming RAs on faculty research projects. Here is a wonderful write-up of the program!

The Tianjin summit shows that the Russia-China alliance is as strong as ever. Truly no-limits. If Trump thought he could "pull" Russia away from China, he was mistaken. As I explain in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, you can't manipulate major powers. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-trump-rus...

The TL,DR: if Trump REALLY likes William McKinley, then he would do what McKinley himself did (while in Congress): pass legislation imposing tariffs, not unilaterally do it by declaring vague emergencies.

I just posted my immediate thoughts on Trump's Tariffs being declared illegal 👇

“Great powers will not and cannot be pulled or prodded, for the point of being a great power—the very reason, in fact, that states seek to acquire such a status—is that they are free to pursue their own interests.” Read @profpaulpoast.bsky.social’s latest column here:

The idea that Great Powers (or aspiring great powers) can be pushed or pulled is a delusion. "Reverse Kissinger" to ideas that a policy will send one great power into the arms of another are simply myths. I explain why in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-trump-rus...

The idea that Trump is swaying Russia’s and India’s foreign policies misses a key point about great power politics, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.

The idea that Great Powers (or aspiring great powers) can be pushed or pulled is a delusion. "Reverse Kissinger" to ideas that a policy will send one great power into the arms of another are simply myths. I explain why in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-trump-rus...

Our new book, "Wheat at War", is largely a work of history. But does it have any relevance for today? Yes, sadly. From starvation in Gaza, to famine in Sudan, to wheat shortages from War in Ukraine, the nexus of food and war remains as relevant today as it did a century ago.

Our new book, "Wheat at War", is largely a work of history. But does it have any relevance for today? Yes, sadly. From starvation in Gaza, to famine in Sudan, to wheat shortages from War in Ukraine, the nexus of food and war remains as relevant today as it did a century ago.

ICYMI: The details of diplomacy tell us what a settlement to end the War in Ukraine looks like...and that we're still far from achieving it.

Folks are rightfully worried that President Trump is compromising the Federal Reserve's independence. As I wrote a year ago for @wpr.bsky.social, because the Fed is arguably the most powerful economic entity in the world, it needs to be as far removed as possible from political machinations.

new post: open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...

n preparation for teaching this fall, I'm creating a document titled "Abuse and Use of AI in Social Science Research Analysis and Writing". It will offer examples of "good use" and "bad use" of AI. For most, I offer detailed examples of the good and bad. But NOT for 👇 task

The First World War is a foundational event to the study of international relations. Consequently, it's been seemingly OVER studied. But that's a big reason that we're proud of the book "Wheat at War". It's hard to say something new about WWI, but I think we did! We hope others feel that way too!

Trump’s recent summits on the war in Ukraine may have failed to achieve a breakthrough, but the talking points that emerged provide some clues about where the negotiations are headed, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.

There are times when it's okay to "not sweat the details." Diplomatic summits are NOT one of those times. I explain why that it is the case -- specifically as it pertains to ending the War in Ukraine -- in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

Detailed talking points in the aftermath of Trump’s recent summits provide clues as to where the negotiations over the war in Ukraine are headed, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.

While recent talks on the Russia-Ukraine war failed to achieve a breakthrough, the details coming out of those meetings offer some clues about where negotiations are headed next, Nonresident Fellow @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes in @wpr.bsky.social ⤵️