1/ This latest piece I've worked on is a reassessment of the implications of some of the OBR's long-term assumptions on indexation and what it means for fiscal sustainability. Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen

How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? Read below to find out how fiscal drag and health spending affect these projections, and why the action needed to tackle the issue is smaller than might appear: fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...

When ministers say the Scottish Budget is balanced, is it a meaningful statement? Have they been plugging gaps with borrowing and non-recurring funding, including in the ABR? Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January! fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...

Glasgow City Council is proposing new neighbourhood parking controls with pay & display fees and emissions-based permits. 🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down: ▶️ What these changes mean for residents ▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals. 👂Listen now:

1/📄 New working paper www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe... On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts." Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech. Thread 👇

The chaos of the UK Budget showed a broken process. But how can it be fixed? In this blog, our deputy director @joaosousa.bsky.social proposes a way forward: the OBR would first publish its baseline forecast, with a three-week window for Treasury policymaking. Read more below: buff.ly/ErNtglY

Today we are launching the Scottish Public Spending Dashboard, a collaboration between the FAI and JRF. This is a new tool allowing detailed government spending figures to be accessed and analysed by a broader set of people. Learn more below:

What’s happening to economic activity, employment and earnings in Scotland’s hospitality sector? Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉

Support for people with learning disabilities should reflect daily experiences, communication & wellbeing. Our collaboration with SCLD, PAMIS & DHI explores how person-owned data stores can help do this, while also enhancing the evidence base. Read more: buff.ly/acN7Umg

Listen to our podcast reacting to yesterday's Budget, where we talk about the two-child limit abolition, tax rises and the risks in the course chosen by the Chancellor, and the chaos of the process: buff.ly/Vy8nodi We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed: buff.ly/ziriaXW

We have now updated our blog with all the analysis we'll include tonight. Read below: buff.ly/0T3M3SD Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well

Our view - the £22bn headroom is a fiscal fiction. Allowing for fuel duty freezes and discounting non-credible spending cuts, it's more like £15bn - so not much higher than before, and not enough for normal forecast uncertainty

Some additional analysis on the two-child limit being abolished and what it means for Scotland - including why only £120m of the £155m set aside is likely to be available for other spending by the Scottish Government fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...

So much briefing inevitably leads to a Budget that did not have many surprises. But what's the real story behind the spin? Read our initial reaction, and keep checking back over the course of the afternoon and evening for further analysis: fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...

The UK Government are publishing a plan for the North Sea alongside the Budget today, and perhaps changes to the tax regime - ICYMI, we discuss the current state of the energy sector in this podcast

ICYMI - what could be on the menu in the budget this afternoon? Essential pre-budget reading as we all wonder if the Irn Bru recipe will change again...

Fraser of Allander Institute is supporting this event on the 5th November. Please sign up if you are interested and haven't arleady!

A few days out from the UK Budget, a chance to reflect on the process. This is NOT normal. But we can and should improve the forecast process if we want increased public trust and transparency. Read our analysis below: buff.ly/jUliDtB

Essential pre-budget reading and listening - is the energy transition at a critical point? buff.ly/Y4EqUY0 See also the accompanying podcast with Professor Paul De Leeuw and Hayley Strachan from Deloitte. buff.ly/NEXV43x

As the Chancellor reaches for the smorgasbord option on taxes, why is she in such a pickle? And is her planned headroom enough to avoid coming back next year for more? Read our latest Budget preview below: fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...

This is clever briefing but not actually how OBR forecasts work. The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago. This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.

If the two-child limit to Universal Credit is abolished, the Scottish Government will save £155 million next year. In our second budget preview, we discuss how these savings could be spent on further measures to tackle child poverty: fraserofallander.org/budget-previ...

How effective are Scotland’s employment programmes for people with learning disabilities? Our latest blog looks at what available data tells us across Scotland. Read more 👇 🔗 buff.ly/9odHIVa

Why a 2p increase in UK income tax will cut the Scottish Budget by £1 billion: read our first budget preview and find out more:

Our latest blog looks at how Scotland is progressing with annual health checks for people with learning disabilities — covering the latest data, NHS Board variation, funding, and upcoming review and research. Read more here: fraserofallander.org/tracking-pro...

Last chance to secure a free place at our upcoming workshop in collaboration with SCLD and Mindroom! If you're an employer or in the HR/People field, come and learn all about hiring neurodivergent people and people with learning disabilities. Registration closes Monday 4pm. buff.ly/9DcEMjS

In this week's update: the IMF has urged the UK to stick to two forecasts a year. But is that compatible with the incentives of Chancellors? Or if we want policy stability, do we have to make do with just one forecast? Read more below: buff.ly/XFZvodu

Relations with the Scottish Government, readiness for Net Zero, current business activity, economic outlook for the year ahead, and more in our latest Scottish Business Monitor - published today.

Updated economic forecasts, a preview of tomorrow's Scottish Business Monitor publication and more in our latest Commentary - published today.

As we get deeper into Autumn, the named storms are starting to turn up, Glasgow’s characteristic horizontal rain is drenching us again and the fiscal horizon isn’t free from a smattering of dark clouds either.... and yes we do keep this metaphor going through the blog! buff.ly/SiIJ1RK

EVENT: What is the future of the hospitality and tourism industry in Scotland? 📍Monday 10 Nov | 10 – 2pm | Glasgow 📅Join us in to explore our latest research and hear from employers, employees & industry leaders Free to attend, find out more: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-future...

Want to build a stronger, more inclusive team? 💡 Join our 2-hour interactive workshop for employers on hiring & supporting neurodivergent people and those with learning disabilities. Gain confidence, practical tools & fresh insight. buff.ly/oTiwjwm

Are you an employer/employee in hospitality or tourism, or are you a student studying in this area? The Serving the Future project team would love to hear your views on our Tourism and Hospitality Toolkit. Please complete the survey here:

ICYMI: We've published a series of five conversations between FAI Director Mairi Spowage and key people in the FAI's history. Listen on our podcast to learn about how Scotland's economic landscape and the FAI's role in analysing it have changed over time 🎧

And that's a wrap! Massive thank you to all the Fraser team for organising, and to all the attendees and guest presenters for bringing such great energy and discussion. Here's to the next 50 years of the Fraser of Allander Institute 🎉 #FAI50

What better way to round off our conference than with a look ahead to the 2026 Holyrood election with Professor Sir John Curtice? #FAI50

Thank you to Peter MacMahon for chairing our next session on making economics accessible for the public, with three fantastic editors to discuss. #FAI50

"If we don't make these choices, our successors will be faced with an even tougher environment." Auditor General Stephen Boyle on the need to prioritise effective prevention of health inequalities. #FAI50

SHERU's second annual report is now live. Our attendees got an exclusive look at the findings and recommendations this morning before launch. #FAI50 buff.ly/hog5bHK

Our special guest revealed! Welcome John Swinney, First Minister, to the conference. #FAI50

Wonderful to have our university's newly appointed principal here to celebrate with us today! #FAI50

It's day 2 of our conference! So excited for more engaging discussions with our attendees 🥰 #FAI50

Mairi Spowage in conversation with Michael Marra MSP, discussing parliamentary committees and the role of research in holding government to account. #FAI50

Some fantastic themed sessions this morning at our #FAI50 conference!

Charandeep Singh and Jack Norquoy highlight the benefits of their strategic relationships with the Fraser, including robust data for business #FAI50

Marc Crothall, Chief Executive of Scottish Tourism Alliance and co-chair of the Tourism and Hospitality Industry Leadership Group, reflects on his relationship with the Fraser: the THILG's participation in Serving the Future has positively impacted their strategy. #FAI50

Deloitte is collaborating with us to create a podcast series covering innovation and sustainability in Scotland which you can listen to now. More episodes coming soon! #FAI50

Kicking off our first panel is Angela Mitchell, Practise Senior Partner for Scotland and Northern Ireland, Deloitte. Looking forward to hearing more about the role of business-resrarch collaboration. #FAI50

And we are live! What a great turn out 😁 Share your insights and pictures with us using #FAI50

🎉Our conference starts today! Follow along on social media using the hashtag #FAI50 for live updates. We can’t wait to welcome everyone to Strathclyde over the next two days. buff.ly/R37Qwm7