Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
š¤ 864
š„ 689
š 63
British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen Mary University of London. matthewbarnfield.co.uk
pinned post!
I have a new article out at
@polstudies.bsky.social
. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. OA link:
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
5 months ago
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Matthew Barnfield
James David Griffiths
17 days ago
šØ NEW BLOG Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social
and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
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Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Walesās Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wales/consolidation-not-conversion-understanding-waless-ongoing-realignment/
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"Labourās... āred linesāāon reducing migration, on not raising taxes, and on not joining the EU's customs union... are still holding up. But the other āred lineā... on graphs showing how many people intend to vote for Labour? Not so much."
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
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Labourās Mr Micawber politics
The government hopes that āsomething will turn upā to produce growth, but curbing immigration will only harm the economy
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/71810/labours-mr-micawber-politics
18 days ago
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Colm Murphy
19 days ago
10 nuggets from the new "British General Election of 2024" book, courtesy of
@timbale.bsky.social
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
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The ten most surprising facts from the 2024 election revealed
Voters cared a lot less about tax than you might think.
https://theconversation.com/the-ten-most-surprising-facts-from-the-2024-election-revealed-271989?utm_medium=article_native_share&utm_source=theconversation.com
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Matthew Barnfield
Jane Green
22 days ago
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social
and I explored
@britishelectionstudy.com
data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch. We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability. Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
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Considering Reformās Potential āCeilingā - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
https://politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/considering-reform-s-potential-ceiling/
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Matthew Barnfield
Jane Green
24 days ago
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue),
@martamiori.bsky.social
and I explain the bloc structure in whatās happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
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Britainās Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
https://politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/britain-s-quiet-electoral-earthquake/
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Jack Bailey
25 days ago
Pushing policy to new and never-before-seen boundaries of craziness. London is a great city! Not as good as Manchester, sure, but you can't have it all. That some Americans have convinced themselves that it is a dangerous hellscape is bizarre.
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies
about 1 month ago
Is it rational to expect to win elections?
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS:
buff.ly/VudD2ir
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@uoypolitics.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Alejandro FernƔndez-RoldƔn
about 1 month ago
Personal news! š£ I'm very happy to share that today I've joined
@dec-gr.bsky.social
as a postdoc to work on the
@tact-forsed.bsky.social
project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe. Grateful to
@galais.bsky.social
and
@mguinjoan.bsky.social
for the opportunity!
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Matthew Barnfield
UCL Constitution Unit
about 1 month ago
Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit!
@uclspp.bsky.social
is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities. Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD. Apply š
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Job opportunity: Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics
The UCL Department of Political Science and Constitution Unit are seeking to appoint a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics. The successful candidate will join the senior team at the Unit.
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/social-historical-sciences/news/2025/nov/job-opportunity-lecturer-british-and-comparative-politics
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A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Will Allen
about 1 month ago
Tune in to episode 103 of me *waving wildly at charts about charts* At least I aspire to never be accused of being boring!
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Jane Green
about 1 month ago
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget? Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social
@jrf-uk.bsky.social
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Chris Hanretty
about 1 month ago
NEW ARTICLE:
@palesl.bsky.social
, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age"
doi.org/10.1086/739406
(1/10)
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Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
https://doi.org/10.1086/739406
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So good by
@duncanrobinson.bsky.social
on British politics' (young) "male gaze":
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
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The panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown
But some manly problems are undeniable
https://www.economist.com/britain/2025/11/19/the-panic-over-a-male-crisis-in-britain-is-overblown?giftId=ODAwM2Y3YjktOTViMy00ZjljLTk3MGEtMmFkMDk5NWFlODlm&utm_campaign=gifted_article
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Philip Cowley
about 1 month ago
Latest piece for the
@thehousemag.bsky.social
, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
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The Professor Will See You Now: Island of strangers
Lessons in political science. This week: island of strangers
https://www.politicshome.com/opinion/article/professor-see-now-island-strangers
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Chris Butler
about 1 month ago
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question
rdcu.be/eQGm4
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How Politicians (mis)Perceive Policy Salience
https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Frdcu.be%2FeQGm4&data=05%7C02%7Cchris.butler%40uantwerpen.be%7C79f947cc5666460a867008de2739f461%7C792e08fb2d544a8eaf72202548136ef6%7C0%7C0%7C638991327047069449%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=w21iAqhcberAkQbne8uOLOtFwu%2FounYaI1FSRPMRjCU%3D&reserved=0
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Calum Weir
about 2 months ago
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters. We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from
@yougov.co.uk
). But that doesn't tell the full story. Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
about 2 months ago
There is still time to register for today's (12:00) online Political Psychology seminar in which
@stefaniereher.bsky.social
is presenting work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies Association
about 2 months ago
*PSA EVENT*
#Political
#Psychology
Seminar Series - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK with
@stefaniereher.bsky.social
, Rob Johns,
@lbernardi.bsky.social
by
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
š 13 November ā”ļø Full details and speakers
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Political Psychology - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
āPublic perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UKā with Stefanie Reher (Strathclyde), with Rob Johns and Luca Bernardi 13 November ā 12:00 to 13:00 In recent years, anā¦
https://buff.ly/e8UZn50
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
about 2 months ago
This Thursday 13 November (12:00 UK),
@stefaniereher.bsky.social
is presenting important work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems, in the third session of our autumn seminar series! Register to attend here:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
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Matthew Barnfield
Colm Murphy
about 2 months ago
Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society. Patrick Diamond and I wrote for
@renewaljournal.bsky.social
. Key points in š§µ š
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
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If Labour want a fairer society, they must argue for it
Labour must make the political argument: taxes are the critical downpayment we all pay to live in a fairer society. Ā It now seems all but certain that direct taxes will rise in the forthcoming Budget...
https://renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labour-want-a-fairer-society-they-must-argue-for-it/
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Klara Müller
2 months ago
There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
2 months ago
Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social
presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research. Register to attend:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies
2 months ago
Is it rational to expect to win elections?
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS:
buff.ly/VwihdOi
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@uoypolitics.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
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Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
https://buff.ly/VwihdOi
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Dave Hill
2 months ago
This is interesting from
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
for
@theconversation.com
-
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
.
#labour
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Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal
Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if heās right.
https://theconversation.com/keir-starmer-needs-to-give-voters-short-term-gain-to-persuade-them-he-can-deliver-long-term-renewal-267404
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Matthew Barnfield
2 months ago
āI want it now, I want it now Not the promises of what tomorrow bringsā Impatient to read more from the excellent research here from
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
@karlpike.bsky.social
and
@philipjcowley.bsky.social
- wonderful colleagues from
@qmulsse.bsky.social
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My write-up for The Conversation on how a strategy of "short-term pain for long-term gain" could be losing the government support from the more short-term-focused of its voters:
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
Trailed in the FT this morning (
www.ft.com/content/e984...
)
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Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal
Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if heās right.
https://theconversation.com/keir-starmer-needs-to-give-voters-short-term-gain-to-persuade-them-he-can-deliver-long-term-renewal-267404
2 months ago
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Javier Sajuria
2 months ago
The always clever
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
sharing some excellent research today.
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Matthew Barnfield
Jane Green
2 months ago
This is really interesting by Matthew Barnfield and colleagues. Our research shows Labour is losing more support among its 2024 voters who feel financially insecure, which - together - suggests voters leaving Labour cant *afford* to wait for ājam tomorrowā.
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Great to speak to
@greenmirandahere.bsky.social
for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/
@karlpike.bsky.social
and
@philipjcowley.bsky.social
.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
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Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
https://www.ft.com/content/e984b28b-038d-4545-b21b-4316d5ac5c75
2 months ago
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Philip Cowley
2 months ago
Latest from our politics of impatience project - some excellent analysis by
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
showing Labour is losing the jam today voters. Labour sheds support from impatient Britons:
on.ft.com/48EaX4h
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Colm Murphy
2 months ago
Voters who think the least about the 'long term' are the most likely to have turned on the government. Important research by my fantastic colleagues
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
,
@philipjcowley.bsky.social
and
@karlpike.bsky.social
cited in Inside Politics.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
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Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
https://www.ft.com/content/e984b28b-038d-4545-b21b-4316d5ac5c75
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After a great first session today, our
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
autumn seminar series continues next week with what promises to be a fascinating talk by
@klaramueller.bsky.social
! Sign up here:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
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3 months ago
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies Association
3 months ago
šFind out more about the
#Political
#Psychology
Autumn seminar series štaking place online 12.00 - 13.00 on š16 Oct š23 Oct š13 Nov š4 Dec
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies Association
3 months ago
*PSA EVENT*
#Political
#Psychology
Seminar Series - The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits & Party Membersā Campaign Activity, organised by
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
š 16 Oct š 23 Oct š 13 Nov š 4 Dec ā”ļø Full details and speakers
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Political Psychology - The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits and Party Membersā Campaign Activity | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
āThe Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits and Party Membersā Campaign Activityā with Stavroula Chrona (Sussex), with Tim Bale and Paul Webb 16 October ā 12:00 to 13:00 We offer a novelā¦
https://buff.ly/RqDKzgh
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
3 months ago
Our autumn online seminar series gets started in two days' time, with a fascinating presentation on the personalities of UK party members - work co-authored by Stavroula Chrona,
@timbale.bsky.social
and Paul Webb. For more info, and to register:
www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
.
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
3 months ago
Our autumn seminar series starts next Thursday 16th October at 12:00! Stavroula Chrona (
profiles.sussex.ac.uk/p226073-stav...
) will give a fascinating presentation on the personality traits of UK political party members. More info on the series and sign-up links here:
www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Will Allen
3 months ago
Another chance to see me profess my love (and the limits) of charts to change minds. Thanks
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
for hosting! And check out the whole autumn series which looks excellent.
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Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars. Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!
add a skeleton here at some point
3 months ago
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Alejandro FernƔndez-RoldƔn
4 months ago
This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year,
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates
academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...
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Matthew Barnfield
Alejandro FernƔndez-RoldƔn
4 months ago
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! š Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! š¤Æš
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Matthew Barnfield
Vittorio Merola
4 months ago
I'd say there are 2 unscientific ways that "irrational" as a concept is used: Descriptive: irrational is a definitional tautology (everything has a reason to it), making it useless Normative: irrational is deviations from a desired benchmark, making it elitist & judgmental Please stop using it!
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Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies
4 months ago
Is it rational to expect to win elections?
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS:
buff.ly/g5aHeG0
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@uoypolitics.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
4 months ago
Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social
@robjohns75.bsky.social
@drjennings.bsky.social
@sarahobolt.bsky.social
@zachdickson.bsky.social
@danjdevine.bsky.social
&
@jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Peter Allen
5 months ago
This article is refreshing not least because it starts from the point of thinking about voters as they actually are, not as we might wish them to be. The key idea ā that voters arenāt pundits and political science shouldnāt expect them to be ā is crucial.
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Jack Bailey
5 months ago
Come for the interesting argument; stay for the excellent prose.
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Rainbow Murray
5 months ago
New job opportunity! Come work with me at
@qmpoliticsir.bsky.social
on my major project on the political representation of men. You: PhD in relevant area, strong quantitative methods skills, interest in representation. The job: 18 months full-time, London or remote
qmul-jobs.tal.net/vx/appcentre...
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Postdoctoral Research Associate - QMUL Jobs
ID: 6685. Title: Postdoctoral Research Associate. Application Deadline:
https://qmul-jobs.tal.net/vx/appcentre-ext/brand-4/candidate/so/pm/1/pl/3/opp/6685-Postdoctoral-Research-Associate/en-GB
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
I have a new article out at
@polstudies.bsky.social
. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. OA link:
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
5 months ago
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reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Peter Luca Versteegen
5 months ago
This paper sounds fascinating in so many regards ā¬ļøā¬ļø
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I have a new article out at
@polstudies.bsky.social
. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. OA link:
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
5 months ago
2
68
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