Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
📤 900
📥 701
📝 77
British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen Mary University of London. matthewbarnfield.co.uk
pinned post!
I have a new article out at
@polstudies.bsky.social
. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. OA link:
doi.org/10.1177/0032...
8 months ago
2
67
35
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
3 days ago
To top off a week of great presentations from our members at the
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
conference, we are hosting
@andy-hunter.bsky.social
online *today* at 12:00 (UK) on the psychology of belief formation. Sign up so you don't miss it!
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/7b3e98...
0
3
1
This time next week, we
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
are hosting an online talk by
@andy-hunter.bsky.social
intervening in some of the biggest ongoing debates in political psychology. Please do come along to hear about this fascinating research! Sing up:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/7b3e98...
add a skeleton here at some point
10 days ago
0
0
1
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Ben Ansell
12 days ago
📣 New job at Oxford's Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM)! 📣 The Departments of Politics & IR (DPIR) and Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI) are hiring an Associate Professor of Causal and Experimental Methods. Come work with me and amazing Oxford peeps! Deadline NOON April 27th.
loading . . .
Associate Professorship of Causal and Experimental Methods in Politics and Social Policy
University salary from £58,265 - £77,645 per annum which is inclusive of an Oxford University Weighting of £1,730 p.aPermanent upon completion of a successful review. The review is conducted during th...
https://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/opportunity/associate-professorship-causal-and-experimental-methods-politics-and-social-policy
1
46
57
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
18 days ago
The first presentation of our spring seminar series will be getting underway this time tomorrow! Register so you don't miss a fascinating talk by @lalamur.bsky.social :
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/a34888...
add a skeleton here at some point
0
2
1
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
20 days ago
This time on Thursday, we kick off our Spring seminar series with a fascinating talk by
@lalamur.bsky.social
on the gender politics of contemporary dating! Sign up via Teams:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/a34888...
add a skeleton here at some point
0
1
3
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Mirko Palestrino
24 days ago
Trump has recently claimed to have 'won' the war in Iran, but also not 'won it enough'. How is that possible?
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
, from
@qmulsse.bsky.social
, has an answer for you in this excellent short read. Thx Matt for quickly putting my book to work!
open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
loading . . .
How can a war be over before it has begun?
Why Trump claims to have won, but not won enough
https://open.substack.com/pub/drmatthewbarnfield/p/how-can-a-war-be-over-before-it-has?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=6welkv
0
3
1
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Lala Muradova
about 1 month ago
Looking forward to presenting this work on dating, love and politics, co-authored with the fab
@bertous.bsky.social
at
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
online seminar series.
add a skeleton here at some point
0
4
3
We
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
are putting on another online seminar series. The first presentation is in two weeks' time. Then they're every other Thursday at 12:00. Please come along to support and learn from our great line up of speakers!
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
0
1
0
My thoughts on the poll showing the Greens have overtaken Labour following the Gorton and Denton by-election, whether this could be a "bandwagon effect", and what that means, for The Conversation:
theconversation.com/how-to-under...
loading . . .
How to understand the post-Gorton and Denton national poll that puts the Greens ahead of Labour
It’s not the byelection win that matters but the scale of the swing to Zack Polanski’s party.
https://doi.org/10.64628/AB.wy9pxqpkt
about 1 month ago
0
14
13
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Marta Miori
about 1 month ago
Very pleased to share that I passed my PhD viva yesterday! Huge thanks to my lovely examiners
@robjohns75.bsky.social
and
@profsob.bsky.social
, and amazing supervisors
@rosieshorrocks.bsky.social
,
@nspmartin.bsky.social
and Ed Fieldhouse... 1/3
16
76
4
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Philip Cowley
about 2 months ago
Latest piece for the
@thehousemag.bsky.social
on the Don't Knows - who are more likely to be women.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
loading . . .
The Professor Will See You Now: dunno
There are two cartoons, seen when much younger, which I think of often.
https://www.politicshome.com/opinion/article/professor-see-now-dunno
2
16
14
Love that there is now a bonus stage to accessing a journal article – before logging in via my institution using 2FA, finding my way back to the article from the homepage after doing so, and requesting to view the pdf twice – of verifying that I am in fact a human being capable of clicking a mouse.
about 2 months ago
1
8
2
My thoughts on what is (and isn't) at risk for Reform in becoming "Tory Party 2.0", given recent polling, the dynamics of bloc politics, and the party's popularity with 2024 non-voters:
theconversation.com/reform-has-b...
loading . . .
Reform has been warned that defecting Tories will damage its brand – and the first evidence is in
Conservative voters have become more positive about Reform since the defections – but some Reform voters have been turned off.
https://theconversation.com/reform-has-been-warned-that-defecting-tories-will-damage-its-brand-and-the-first-evidence-is-in-275201
about 2 months ago
0
16
11
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies
about 2 months ago
Is it rational to expect to win elections?
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS:
buff.ly/04Lq36y
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@uoypolitics.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
loading . . .
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
https://buff.ly/04Lq36y
0
4
3
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Philip Cowley
2 months ago
Thoughts in the FT on why I don't like the idea of an automatic by election if an MP changes party - but understand why some people do, along with a possible compromise... How to deal with defecting MPs -
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
via @FT
loading . . .
How to deal with defecting MPs
Voters should be able to force parliamentarians who change parties to face the electorate
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/e2f16716-0319-44ef-8257-537f4ce29f32
2
22
19
Very pleased to see this out! Karl's conception of centrism as a structure for political action is really compelling
add a skeleton here at some point
2 months ago
0
4
0
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
James David Griffiths
3 months ago
Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs!
labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...
If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here:
academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...
Also Green and Miori's excellent work here:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
loading . . .
'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList
Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.
https://labourlist.org/2026/01/avoiding-the-iceberg/
1
6
8
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Ben Ansell
3 months ago
Absolutely! I have been super reliant on Marta's excellent work
1
2
1
Blocs really are all the rage now huh. I would add that the work of
@martamiori.bsky.social
,
@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
and other ECRs has also gone a long way to making that happen!
add a skeleton here at some point
3 months ago
1
15
5
We have just published a paper showing that, while informing (German) people about public opinion on climate change increases their perceptions of public support for policy action, it doesn't really increase how much they support it themselves.
doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
TL;DR: see Joe's thread.
add a skeleton here at some point
3 months ago
1
4
3
Have to wonder how many of the “literary men” whose loss is lamented in this piece would have been labelled “performative males” in 2025. Here's to not mocking men for reading in 2026.
www.ft.com/content/da33...
loading . . .
Why men should really be reading more fiction
Novels require a kind of attention that the modern world is steadily eroding
https://www.ft.com/content/da33f535-9171-4163-a773-ac64c753c6c6?shareType=nongift
3 months ago
0
2
0
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Giles Wilkes
3 months ago
This article deserves all the praise it's getting, despite its egregious reference to the fish disco as proof of something or other. Particularly worth looking up
@pollymackenzie.bsky.social
stack on the misuse of "levers" as a metaphor...
www.economist.com/britain/2026...
loading . . .
State capacity is the issue of the age
The Labour Party and its rivals agree on much about what is wrong with government
https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/01/08/state-capacity-is-the-issue-of-the-age
2
11
4
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
James David Griffiths
4 months ago
🚨 NEW BLOG Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social
and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
loading . . .
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wales/consolidation-not-conversion-understanding-waless-ongoing-realignment/
3
49
44
"Labour’s... “red lines”—on reducing migration, on not raising taxes, and on not joining the EU's customs union... are still holding up. But the other “red line”... on graphs showing how many people intend to vote for Labour? Not so much."
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...
loading . . .
Labour’s Mr Micawber politics
The government hopes that ‘something will turn up’ to produce growth, but curbing immigration will only harm the economy
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/71810/labours-mr-micawber-politics
4 months ago
0
1
0
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Colm Murphy
4 months ago
10 nuggets from the new "British General Election of 2024" book, courtesy of
@timbale.bsky.social
theconversation.com/the-ten-most...
loading . . .
The ten most surprising facts from the 2024 election revealed
Voters cared a lot less about tax than you might think.
https://theconversation.com/the-ten-most-surprising-facts-from-the-2024-election-revealed-271989?utm_medium=article_native_share&utm_source=theconversation.com
0
7
7
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Jane Green
4 months ago
Are Reform at their ceiling?
@martamiori.bsky.social
and I explored
@britishelectionstudy.com
data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch. We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability. Link here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
loading . . .
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
https://politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/considering-reform-s-potential-ceiling/
0
10
2
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Jane Green
4 months ago
In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue),
@martamiori.bsky.social
and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...
loading . . .
Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
https://politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/britain-s-quiet-electoral-earthquake/
3
23
6
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Jack Bailey
4 months ago
Pushing policy to new and never-before-seen boundaries of craziness. London is a great city! Not as good as Manchester, sure, but you can't have it all. That some Americans have convinced themselves that it is a dangerous hellscape is bizarre.
add a skeleton here at some point
13
154
32
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies
4 months ago
Is it rational to expect to win elections?
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS:
buff.ly/VudD2ir
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@uoypolitics.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
0
8
3
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Alejandro Fernández-Roldán
4 months ago
Personal news! 📣 I'm very happy to share that today I've joined
@dec-gr.bsky.social
as a postdoc to work on the
@tact-forsed.bsky.social
project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe. Grateful to
@galais.bsky.social
and
@mguinjoan.bsky.social
for the opportunity!
9
37
5
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
UCL Constitution Unit
4 months ago
Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit!
@uclspp.bsky.social
is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities. Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD. Apply 👇
loading . . .
Job opportunity: Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics
The UCL Department of Political Science and Constitution Unit are seeking to appoint a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics. The successful candidate will join the senior team at the Unit.
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/social-historical-sciences/news/2025/nov/job-opportunity-lecturer-british-and-comparative-politics
0
17
39
A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.
add a skeleton here at some point
4 months ago
2
16
9
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Will Allen
4 months ago
Tune in to episode 103 of me *waving wildly at charts about charts* At least I aspire to never be accused of being boring!
add a skeleton here at some point
1
4
2
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Jane Green
4 months ago
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget? Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social
@jrf-uk.bsky.social
6
60
40
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Chris Hanretty
4 months ago
NEW ARTICLE:
@palesl.bsky.social
, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age"
doi.org/10.1086/739406
(1/10)
loading . . .
Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
https://doi.org/10.1086/739406
3
69
27
So good by
@duncanrobinson.bsky.social
on British politics' (young) "male gaze":
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
loading . . .
The panic over a male crisis in Britain is overblown
But some manly problems are undeniable
https://www.economist.com/britain/2025/11/19/the-panic-over-a-male-crisis-in-britain-is-overblown?giftId=ODAwM2Y3YjktOTViMy00ZjljLTk3MGEtMmFkMDk5NWFlODlm&utm_campaign=gifted_article
4 months ago
1
9
1
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Philip Cowley
5 months ago
Latest piece for the
@thehousemag.bsky.social
, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke.
www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
loading . . .
The Professor Will See You Now: Island of strangers
Lessons in political science. This week: island of strangers
https://www.politicshome.com/opinion/article/professor-see-now-island-strangers
2
36
33
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Chris Butler
5 months ago
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question
rdcu.be/eQGm4
loading . . .
How Politicians (mis)Perceive Policy Salience
https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Frdcu.be%2FeQGm4&data=05%7C02%7Cchris.butler%40uantwerpen.be%7C79f947cc5666460a867008de2739f461%7C792e08fb2d544a8eaf72202548136ef6%7C0%7C0%7C638991327047069449%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=w21iAqhcberAkQbne8uOLOtFwu%2FounYaI1FSRPMRjCU%3D&reserved=0
5
58
30
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Calum Weir
5 months ago
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters. We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from
@yougov.co.uk
). But that doesn't tell the full story. Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
6
104
86
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
5 months ago
There is still time to register for today's (12:00) online Political Psychology seminar in which
@stefaniereher.bsky.social
is presenting work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
0
2
2
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies Association
5 months ago
*PSA EVENT*
#Political
#Psychology
Seminar Series - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK with
@stefaniereher.bsky.social
, Rob Johns,
@lbernardi.bsky.social
by
@psapolpsychology.bsky.social
📆 13 November ➡️ Full details and speakers
loading . . .
Political Psychology - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK | The Political Studies Association (PSA)
‘Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK’ with Stefanie Reher (Strathclyde), with Rob Johns and Luca Bernardi 13 November – 12:00 to 13:00 In recent years, an…
https://buff.ly/e8UZn50
0
4
3
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
5 months ago
This Thursday 13 November (12:00 UK),
@stefaniereher.bsky.social
is presenting important work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems, in the third session of our autumn seminar series! Register to attend here:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...
add a skeleton here at some point
0
2
2
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Colm Murphy
5 months ago
Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society. Patrick Diamond and I wrote for
@renewaljournal.bsky.social
. Key points in 🧵 👇
renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...
loading . . .
If Labour want a fairer society, they must argue for it
Labour must make the political argument: taxes are the critical downpayment we all pay to live in a fairer society. It now seems all but certain that direct taxes will rise in the forthcoming Budget...
https://renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labour-want-a-fairer-society-they-must-argue-for-it/
17
130
74
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Klara Müller
5 months ago
There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!
add a skeleton here at some point
0
9
2
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
PSA Political Psychology Specialist Group
6 months ago
Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with
@klaramueller.bsky.social
presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research. Register to attend:
events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...
0
5
2
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies
6 months ago
Is it rational to expect to win elections?
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS:
buff.ly/VwihdOi
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
@uoypolitics.bsky.social
@sagepub.com
loading . . .
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
https://buff.ly/VwihdOi
0
3
3
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Dave Hill
6 months ago
This is interesting from
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
for
@theconversation.com
-
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
.
#labour
loading . . .
Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal
Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if he’s right.
https://theconversation.com/keir-starmer-needs-to-give-voters-short-term-gain-to-persuade-them-he-can-deliver-long-term-renewal-267404
0
2
1
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
6 months ago
“I want it now, I want it now Not the promises of what tomorrow brings” Impatient to read more from the excellent research here from
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
@karlpike.bsky.social
and
@philipjcowley.bsky.social
- wonderful colleagues from
@qmulsse.bsky.social
add a skeleton here at some point
1
5
4
My write-up for The Conversation on how a strategy of "short-term pain for long-term gain" could be losing the government support from the more short-term-focused of its voters:
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
Trailed in the FT this morning (
www.ft.com/content/e984...
)
loading . . .
Keir Starmer needs to give voters short-term gain to persuade them he can deliver long-term renewal
Keir Starmer says painful decisions are needed now to fix the country for the future. But voters may not stick around to find out if he’s right.
https://theconversation.com/keir-starmer-needs-to-give-voters-short-term-gain-to-persuade-them-he-can-deliver-long-term-renewal-267404
6 months ago
4
9
4
reposted by
Matthew Barnfield
Javier Sajuria
6 months ago
The always clever
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
sharing some excellent research today.
add a skeleton here at some point
0
2
2
Load more
feeds!
log in