🚨 NEW BLOG Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why? @jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs! blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

"Labour’s... “red lines”—on reducing migration, on not raising taxes, and on not joining the EU's customs union... are still holding up. But the other “red line”... on graphs showing how many people intend to vote for Labour? Not so much." www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/718...

10 nuggets from the new "British General Election of 2024" book, courtesy of @timbale.bsky.social theconversation.com/the-ten-most...

Are Reform at their ceiling? @martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch. We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability. Link here: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...

In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...

Pushing policy to new and never-before-seen boundaries of craziness. London is a great city! Not as good as Manchester, sure, but you can't have it all. That some Americans have convinced themselves that it is a dangerous hellscape is bizarre.

Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VudD2ir @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

Personal news! 📣 I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe. Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!

Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit! @uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities. Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD. Apply 👇

A short piece for Renewal on how the government's failure to present a consistent political argument is, despite its "long-termist" rhetoric, about not being orientated towards a political vision for the future.

Tune in to episode 103 of me *waving wildly at charts about charts* At least I aspire to never be accused of being boring!

NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget? Read on for our answer... @nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social

NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)

So good by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social on British politics' (young) "male gaze": www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, on the island of strangers speech and similar. Also ft Bob Hawke. www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4

Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters. We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk). But that doesn't tell the full story. Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):

There is still time to register for today's (12:00) online Political Psychology seminar in which @stefaniereher.bsky.social is presenting work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...

*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - Public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems in the UK with @stefaniereher.bsky.social, Rob Johns, @lbernardi.bsky.social by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social 📆 13 November ➡️ Full details and speakers

This Thursday 13 November (12:00 UK), @stefaniereher.bsky.social is presenting important work on public perceptions of politicians with mental health problems, in the third session of our autumn seminar series! Register to attend here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/e51a98...

Breaking the tax pledge is the right call...and politically sulphurous. Reeves must argue, far more forcefully, that taxes are *the* essential downpayment we all pay for a fairer society. Patrick Diamond and I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Key points in 🧵 👇 renewal.org.uk/blog/if-labo...

There's still time to register - looking forward to seeing you around!

Our autumn seminar series continues tomorrow at midday, with @klaramueller.bsky.social presenting important insights into causal inference in political psychology research. Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...

Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/VwihdOi @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

This is interesting from @mbarnfield.bsky.social for @theconversation.com - theconversation.com/keir-starmer.... #labour

“I want it now, I want it now Not the promises of what tomorrow brings” Impatient to read more from the excellent research here from @mbarnfield.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social - wonderful colleagues from @qmulsse.bsky.social

My write-up for The Conversation on how a strategy of "short-term pain for long-term gain" could be losing the government support from the more short-term-focused of its voters: theconversation.com/keir-starmer... Trailed in the FT this morning (www.ft.com/content/e984...)

The always clever @mbarnfield.bsky.social sharing some excellent research today.

This is really interesting by Matthew Barnfield and colleagues. Our research shows Labour is losing more support among its 2024 voters who feel financially insecure, which - together - suggests voters leaving Labour cant *afford* to wait for ‘jam tomorrow’.

Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social. www.ft.com/content/e984...

Latest from our politics of impatience project - some excellent analysis by @mbarnfield.bsky.social showing Labour is losing the jam today voters. Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h

Voters who think the least about the 'long term' are the most likely to have turned on the government. Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics. www.ft.com/content/e984...

After a great first session today, our @psapolpsychology.bsky.social autumn seminar series continues next week with what promises to be a fascinating talk by @klaramueller.bsky.social! Sign up here: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/5edb84...

👇Find out more about the #Political #Psychology Autumn seminar series 👇taking place online 12.00 - 13.00 on 📆16 Oct 📆23 Oct 📆13 Nov 📆4 Dec

*PSA EVENT* #Political #Psychology Seminar Series - The Bright and Dark Sides: Personality Traits & Party Members’ Campaign Activity, organised by @psapolpsychology.bsky.social 📆 16 Oct 📆 23 Oct 📆 13 Nov 📆 4 Dec ➡️ Full details and speakers

Our autumn online seminar series gets started in two days' time, with a fascinating presentation on the personalities of UK party members - work co-authored by Stavroula Chrona, @timbale.bsky.social and Paul Webb. For more info, and to register: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g....

Our autumn seminar series starts next Thursday 16th October at 12:00! Stavroula Chrona (profiles.sussex.ac.uk/p226073-stav...) will give a fascinating presentation on the personality traits of UK political party members. More info on the series and sign-up links here: www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g...

Another chance to see me profess my love (and the limits) of charts to change minds. Thanks @psapolpsychology.bsky.social for hosting! And check out the whole autumn series which looks excellent.

Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars. Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!

This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...

Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇 Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅

I'd say there are 2 unscientific ways that "irrational" as a concept is used: Descriptive: irrational is a definitional tautology (everything has a reason to it), making it useless Normative: irrational is deviations from a desired benchmark, making it elitist & judgmental Please stop using it!

Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/g5aHeG0 @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team @katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk doi.org/10.31235/osf...

This article is refreshing not least because it starts from the point of thinking about voters as they actually are, not as we might wish them to be. The key idea — that voters aren’t pundits and political science shouldn’t expect them to be — is crucial.

Come for the interesting argument; stay for the excellent prose.

New job opportunity! Come work with me at @qmpoliticsir.bsky.social on my major project on the political representation of men. You: PhD in relevant area, strong quantitative methods skills, interest in representation. The job: 18 months full-time, London or remote qmul-jobs.tal.net/vx/appcentre...

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...

This paper sounds fascinating in so many regards ⬇️⬇️

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...