This is simply a free to air party political broadcast. There's a case for the BBC cutting away unless/until he actually says something newsworthy.

Ok seen a few of these stories now. It's weird, given how many mid-term changes of PM we have had lately, that people don't remember they don't have shadow cabinets and there are many reasons they literally can't 'appoint' their picks before actually becoming PM. www.ft.com/content/66ad...

The thing about all these projections is they all assume voters will ignore the local tactical stakes. Yet we have seen repeatedly that this just ain’t so.

Remember all those articles about how young men are becoming much more right wing and pro-Reform than older men? Well it turns out the opposite is actually true

Alarmed to realise that my attempt to offer a fresh perspective on the partisan "bias" in electoral expectations, and what it means for democracy, was accepted for publication almost a year ago. tl;dr: voters hope their vote isn't futile, and that's OK.

Latest piece for the @financialtimes.com, on who gets to vote for a new Labour Prime Minister www.ft.com/content/d2d9...

Grateful for the chance to discuss private members' bills (usage, reform, etc) today at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk - alongside @kimleadbeatermp.bsky.social, @paulbrand.bsky.social, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social & Luke Norbury. Recording here: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/assist...

tl;dr: a two-minute video summary to whet the appetite. youtube.com/shorts/xOP8t...

Karl here gives an excellent and nuanced overview of some of what our research (w/ @philipjcowley.bsky.social suggests about short-(and long-)termism in British politics. 1/4

Discussed ongoing research with @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social on the BBC’s Moral Maze yesterday evening - about what the ‘short term’ and the ‘long term’ mean in politics and policymaking. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

So reformers should "get real: step up efforts to set up a truly independent commission, agree to back the system it recommends, insert a commitment into as many party manifestos as possible & begin working out how best to win support in what is bound to be a hard-fought public vote."

Last year, we shared a paper showing that Labour's accommodation of the radical right did not work. We now have a new version of the paper online: osf.io/preprints/so...

If you want to read this but don't have time to catch up on the first two articles in the exchange, why not watch my two-minute video summary instead: youtube.com/shorts/O-1Jn... (Hopefully sufficient to pique your interest so you go on to read them anyway.)

Latest piece for @thehousemag.bsky.social, in which I reveal an unknown letter from Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman, find another letter from Churchill, discover when Sir John Rodgers went to the dentist, and praise the kindness of two former Streatham MPs: www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

I made a little video summarising this report when it first came out: youtube.com/shorts/ZUajz...

Note that this pattern was the same back with the Brexit Party and UKIP. As with Trump, even within those parties it's a stark wedge issue, should anyone be inclined to push on it.

Pleased to see this one, with @mbarnfield.bsky.social & @karlpike.bsky.social now out in print... onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

In case this week's record-breaking heatwave and/or criticism of net zero from Tony Blair have you thinking about the status of climate change in British politics, I did some polling: open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe... 1/4

Today at 13:00! Register to attend: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/a3c4d4...

⬇️Thanks for the feedback opportunity - and for the shout-out! The paper co-authored with the fabulous Julia Schulte-Cloos @jschultecloos.bsky.social & Hahrie Han, and Julia will be joining the talk ✨

In my latest piece I wrote that supporters of the assisted dying bill face four key challenges. If Lauren Edwards (2nd in the PMB ballot) is willing to reintroduce the bill, they *may* have cleared the first. But three remain. theconversation.com/can-the-assi...

This is valuable work, partly because it counters the idea that you can easily nudge the public into supporting climate policy. A three-hour active workshop increased support from either a minority to... a slightly larger minority, or from a slight majority to... a slightly larger majority.

On Thursday, MPs will hold this year's private members' bills ballot. Supporters of the assisted dying bill will hope to bring the bill back - allowing them to override the Lords using the Parliament Acts. But they face 4 challenges. My article ⬇️ theconversation.com/can-the-assi...

Latest piece for @thehousemag.bsky.social, in which I look at Mo Salah and the parasocial contact hypothesis. www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

We would be better off without the data. Not only are constituency polls deeply unreliable, but if they have any influence on the outcome, that a) is extremely inappropriate and b) will skew our understanding of British politics. drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/if-polls-p...

Guardian are running a list of the 100 best “is Britain now ungovernable” articles next weekend

Some incredible passive voice from the guy who made this pledge

A write-up of the key findings and points made in this thread on my Substack: open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe... The way I see it, the argument that the public’s irrational impatience makes it ungovernable can’t be defended rigorously because it simply hasn’t been put to the test.

Here @robertshrimsley.bsky.social highlights something that risks being overlooked in the arg that public short-termism makes us ungovernable: Short-termism isn't just about the time you are willing to wait for change, but *how you make political decisions*. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇

Could a Labour Party rulebook expert correct me if I'm wrong here: have been told the 'but also...' bit is the case, but, if not, I'm happy to make clear that it's not the case should there be a challenge rather than a vacancy!

A brilliant thread by @qmulsse.bsky.social’s very own @mbarnfield.bsky.social about the public’s expectations about how long it takes to implement new policies and the impact it is having on British politics.

Looking forward to this - discussing what we can learn about PMBs from the recent failed passage of the assisted dying bill.

Is impatience killing the government? Some data and some thoughts. @karlpike.bsky.social @philipjcowley.bsky.social and I found a year ago that people expected noticeable improvements in the NHS, schools, housing well within Labour's first parliament. www.politicshome.com/news/article... 1/7

'Can the assisted dying bill be brought back? It’s possible – but supporters face four challenges' New piece by me for @uk.theconversation.com on the assisted dying bill in the new parliamentary session (starts Weds) - including use of the Parliament Acts. theconversation.com/can-the-assi...

It's pretty wild that in May there will be four different electoral systems used to elect the four national legislatures across the UK. If you're scratching your head trying to work out how each system works, then we have the explainer for you.

This time on Thursday, @yarasleiman.bsky.social will be presenting her fascinating work on how bilinguals process political information presented in their primary and secondary languages. Register to come along!: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/b44d8c...

Reading London Playbook ("The PM seems confident, which is why he got his PPS to text all Labour MPs last night begging them not to sack him / giving important context on the Mandelson case") has reminded me: this just came out (doi.org/10.1093/pa/g...). Possibly of interest to Thatcher 'fans', too?

It’s not the first time I’ve said this on Bluesky: you will always learn something from reading Matthew

This is excellent from Matthew, not only on the substantive issue but also on the promise and - crucially - limitations of experimental research and what we can infer from it.

Essential reading from @qmulsse.bsky.social’s @mbarnfield.bsky.social for anyone interested in how we communicate about climate change and whether it is as effective as many policymakers and activists think it is.

You desperately hope something's true and then your brilliant @qmul.bsky.social colleague comes along and shows you it's probably not, damn him!

I just published something on my Substack about one reason, among many, why I don't think communicating public consensus on climate change is anything like as powerful a climate policy tool as people make it out to be. open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...

We are delighted to be hosting what promises to be a fascinating talk @yaseminulusahin.bsky.social, online this Thursday at 12:00 (UK). Please sign up to come along and hear about Yasemin's research!: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/651415...

I’ll be presenting our work on the 2023 election rallies in Turkey this Thursday at the Political Psychology seminar. We’ll explore how crowd events like political rallies attempt to define a vision of the future and who belongs in it. Register through the link to join..

One week today! Register here to attend what promises to be a fascinating talk by @yaseminulusahin.bsky.social : events.teams.microsoft.com/event/651415...

To top off a week of great presentations from our members at the @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social conference, we are hosting @andy-hunter.bsky.social online *today* at 12:00 (UK) on the psychology of belief formation. Sign up so you don't miss it! events.teams.microsoft.com/event/7b3e98...

This time next week, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are hosting an online talk by @andy-hunter.bsky.social intervening in some of the biggest ongoing debates in political psychology. Please do come along to hear about this fascinating research! Sing up: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/7b3e98...