Arrancamos el nuevo año con una entrada de @damjantomic.bsky.social, @sergiferrer.bsky.social, Enrique Prada y @ehernandez.bsky.social. Muestran que, contrario a lo que podíamos esperar, los ciudadanos siguen bastante comprometidos con las reglas democráticas. www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepap...

Some reflections from me on January 6 in comparative and historical perspective (first time on substack) open.substack.com/pub/ziblatt4...

New article out in @bjpols.bsky.social 🎉 Why do elections remain widely supported even as democratic checks and balances erode around the world?

Out now and open access with @sethers.bsky.social at Political Research Quarterly! How do election outcomes shape affective polarization among Americans? 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Which factors affect how Americans react to political violence? Our paper in @polbehavior.bsky.social addressing this question just got a volume and issue number! link.springer.com/article/10.1...

For the historical polling nerds out there, an article about our project with @ropercenter.bsky.social that digitised ~800 surveys by Gallup poll in Britain between 1955 and 1991 has been published in JEPOP. The merged dataset contains over three-quarters of a million respondents.

Great to present yesterday in Barcelona the latest version (and hopefully last!) of joint work with @klaramueller.bsky.social. Now looking forward to expanding the project further! It was also in some way my official debut for UAB 🙂 PS: You may want to follow @bcnpolisci.bsky.social too!

Personal news! 📣 I'm very happy to share that today I've joined @dec-gr.bsky.social as a postdoc to work on the @tact-forsed.bsky.social project, studying conspiracy beliefs and democratic backsliding across Europe. Grateful to @galais.bsky.social and @mguinjoan.bsky.social for the opportunity!

A hidden gem for PolSci in an Econ journal: mainstream right-wing parties seem to capture only a fraction (!) of the far-right vote when the latter don't run in an election. Crucially, left parties seem to gain votes! A key finding for understanding potential coalitions doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

I just had to update my beliefs on the topic: this is brilliant research!

‼️ Important new paper on the consequences of low turnout for representation by @mascakir.bsky.social, see Semih's 🧵 for a summary of his findings 👇

AI presents a fundamental threat to our ability to use polls to assess public opinion. Bad actors who are able to infiltrate panels can flip close election polls for less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee. Models will also infer and confirm hypotheses in experiments. Current quality checks fail

Solid work on (absent) attitudinal age gaps in the UK 👇

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com. doi.org/10.64628/AB....

Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social. www.ft.com/content/e984...

Really important study by @sannabergvall.bsky.social et al.!

Following the success of our spring seminar series earlier this year, we @psapolpsychology.bsky.social are running an autumn/winter series, with four online presentations by great scholars. Please do register and come along to hear about some really fascinating research!

Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️‍🌈 But is this really the case? doi.org/10.1017/S147...

🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)? ➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

This is extremely good!

This polling discrepancy is a huge concern when you consider how polls influence political behaviour. Last year, @mbarnfield.bsky.social and I published a paper about the dangers of this exact situation - a 'mixed-poll environment' with conflicting estimates academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...

Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇 Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅

What a great way to wrap up #EPOP2025!

Back in Exeter for the first time since my first PhD visiting stay! I'm thrilled to be presenting joint research on election polling with @klaramueller.bsky.social at the @psaepop.bsky.social Conference tomorrow. So looking forward to this panel full of great scholars

This is a prime case study of how moving your issue agenda as a center right party (Cons) to the right extremes will eventually cost yourself everything. The Cons are projected at 24!!! seats right now. Reform at 395!

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...

📝Why has a Bukele-style far-right party emerged in Spain—even though VOX already exists? In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections: journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.... 1/3

Just discovered that ChatGPT writes as I did during my masters (maybe even early PhD): trying to use grandiloquent words to compensate for a lack of depth in my writing(s)

I never re-read the book 'All souls', by Javier Marías, but my memory of it (and the reason why I think I liked it) is because it mocked/despised a mindless fascination with some characters and traditions orbiting Oxford.

🧪How did COVID-19 affect citizens’ democratic preferences? ➡️ @cescamat.bsky.social A.Arenas A.Falcó & @jordimunoz.bsky.social find a lasting rise in technocratic preferences and a temporary bump in the willingness to sacrifice civil rights and freedoms www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨 "School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support" Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1080/0140... 🧵👇

Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️ Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state. #Democracy #PoliticalScience 🧵 url: osf.io/usqdb_v2

Very cool paper! - Pretty sure most people will adopt this check right away. And even if I'm wrong, you know Reviewer 2 will ask for it anyway 😉

Unfortunately, I won't be able to participate in #EPSA2025 😔 - But as I'm coauthor of 3 pieces that will be presented, I feel compelled to share the details in case you're interested in any! - A thread follows 🧵 @epsanet.bsky.social PS: Sadly, 2 of the presentations clash in date and time

Very relevant findings for survey research and survey methodology: Attitudes toward democracy and previous survey engagement appear to play a greater role in panel attrition than whether respondents supported the winning or losing side in the last election 👇🏽

Psychological inoculation is a very popular intervention against online misinfo, but it hasn't been tested using real-world outcomes in realistic scenarios. In a new paper just published in PNAS Nexus, this is what we did: academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar... Short version: It didn't really work.

New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social where I look at the impact of parties’ age-targeted group appeals on age gaps in voting🧵

Our paper “Long-Term Time Horizons and Support for Public Investment” is open access @psjeditor.bsky.social (w/ @karlpike.bsky.social @philipjcowley.bsky.social). Whether the public supports policy that pays off in the long term depends on what “long term” means. doi.org/10.1111/psj.70040

For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇

🇪🇺🇦🇫 Published Today in CPS 🇪🇺🇦🇫 “Stand by those who share our values” – how refugees fleeing the Taliban improved European attitudes toward immigration Article: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Pre-print: osf.io/preprints/os... Thread: 1/8

People, stop using conjoints: the *ultimate* conjoint is out!

Out now and open access with my wonderful colleagues! How much does wishful thinking affect who people expect to be governing parties before and after elections? 🧵

We'd love feedback on this project 👇 #PoliSky

A funny (and very well known) thing about early-stage research is that data availability often shapes the project. If Klara’s presentation or the cases of Germany and Spain weren’t compelling enough, consider joining the seminar to see insights from our latest addition—the UK 2024 snap election! 🙃

Who does Spiderman vote for? Who you vote for. In a new paper w/ @markuswagner.bsky.social we show that people engage in motivated projection of political identities. In the absence of explicit info on politics, individuals rely on valence to infer the politics of others doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

Another success in the second seminar of the BJ-REPS 🧑‍💻! Last Friday we had @klaramueller.bsky.social presenting an awesome joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social on snap elections. Many thanks to the participants and next month more!

Yesterday I had the opportunity to present most recent work joint with @aleferna.bsky.social on the effect of snap election calls on vote intention (un)certainty at BJ REPS 🎓 🗳️ Great atmosphere and lovely to see such an engaged crowd of PhDs from Barcelona‘s different universities! #polisky

This is quite a line-up! 👇