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It's striking how engaging in democratic processes can, ironically, lead to democratic discontent when the results feel personally or politically unfavorable. Even in strong democracies!

This deviation is certainly striking (and, given the known influence of polling on political behavior, also somehwat concerning). Spilling the tea on @aleferna.bsky.social's and my research into CIS’ house effects and their shifts over time: this discrepancy is systematic, not just a one-off.

The University of Cologne plans drastic cuts to its Political Science department, potentially abolishing the MSc in Political Science and eliminating the professorships in IR and Comparative Politics. This would severely weaken the social sciences at @unicologne.bsky.social. Petition (de/en) ⤵️

Full circle moment ⭕: @psaepop.bsky.social was the first ever conference I presented at, and now I'm thrilled to wrap up my PhD conference cycle at #EPOP2025 in Exeter. Enthusiatic to present joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social and to be part of this promising panel. Curious to hear your thoughts!

Join us tomorrow, we’re super curious about your feedback! 🙌🏻

Interesting paper on non-response bias, and the role of the response propensity distribution onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

#Call #GESISPanel Collect Your Own Linked #WebTracking and #SurveyData with the GESIS Panel.dbd Digital Behavioral Data Sample Panelists participate in repeated surveys and digital behavioral data collections such as web tracking, where participants' web browsing behavior is recorded.

EPSA have announced that they will hold a conference in July 2026. 😵‍💫 We understand that there might be some confusion about EPSS and EPSA. 👉🏽 So we thought we would clarify some things. A short 🧵

Just out at @polbehavior.bsky.social w/Carey Stapleton: Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting. When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...

Striking to see just *how* much the impact of losing an election increases with populist attitudes. This is a great demonstration of how populist voters may perceive election results as a test of democratic legitimacy rather than 'only' an outcome of electoral competition. Really interesting paper!

New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies. osf.io/preprints/os... 1/9

Leaving #EPSA25 running high on research drive and low on social energy. Super stimulating input, and great to (re)connect with so many colleagues and friends. ¡Gracias, Madrid! See you in Belfast (?) @epssnet.bsky.social

Come join us for our immigration and persuasion panel at 3pm later today if you're around in Madrid #epsa2025

🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨 We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community. 🔗 epssnet.org Here’s a thread with everything you need to know. 🧵

Vamos #EPSA2025! I‘ll be presenting two joint projects with the amazing @aleferna.bsky.social who provided some teasers below🧵 1️⃣ Fri. 3pm 1A.12: How Snap Election Calls Shape Vote Intention Uncertainty 2️⃣ Sat. 11.20am 1A.12: Electoral Polling as a Public Service? The case of CIS 🇪🇸 See you there!

After a long time in the making, so happy to finally see this paper out at @psrm.bsky.social, with Albert Falcó and @robpannico.bsky.social- www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

🚨 Excited to see my first solo-authored paper now published in IJPOR! 🚨 Do election outcomes affect participation in post-election surveys? And specifically, do election winners respond more than losers? The short answer: not really. The slightly longer answer: 🧵👇 academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...

Our paper "Wishful Thinking in Response to Events" is now out @electoralstudies.bsky.social! w/ @polpsychjoe.bsky.social @florianstoeckel.bsky.social @vittoriomerola.bsky.social @benlyons.bsky.social @jasonreifler.bsky.social et al www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

📣 new fellowship at the MZES, University of Mannheim! Deadline 26 April 2025. Come join us 👇🏻

@jaclarner.bsky.social @aleferna.bsky.social and I have a new working paper which examines self-interest, sociotropy and social/employment policy preferences and is based on two survey experiments with British samples. 1/4 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

🚨Why do masses support democratic backsliding?🚨 A new @AJPS_Editor paper with Yotam Margalit, @liorsheffer.bsky.social and Itamar Yakir explores this question in the Israeli context. Our findings emphasize the role of leader attachment and affective polarization. doi.org/10.1111/ajps...

A funny (and very well known) thing about early-stage research is that data availability often shapes the project. If Klara’s presentation or the cases of Germany and Spain weren’t compelling enough, consider joining the seminar to see insights from our latest addition—the UK 2024 snap election! 🙃

Published Today in PSRM: Based on a novel “Multiple Unexpected Events during Survey Design” (MUESD), I contextualize previous findings suggesting that Europeans become more empathetic toward migrants when exposed to migrant suffering. www.cambridge.org/core/journal... A Summary Thread: 1/15

Looking forward to this opportunity to share most recent joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social at the @dec-gr.bsky.social seminar!

Another success in the second seminar of the BJ-REPS 🧑‍💻! Last Friday we had @klaramueller.bsky.social presenting an awesome joint work with @aleferna.bsky.social on snap elections. Many thanks to the participants and next month more!

Yesterday I had the opportunity to present most recent work joint with @aleferna.bsky.social on the effect of snap election calls on vote intention (un)certainty at BJ REPS 🎓 🗳️ Great atmosphere and lovely to see such an engaged crowd of PhDs from Barcelona‘s different universities! #polisky

Last week I started my research stay at @ub.edu with @jordimunoz.bsky.social. Barcelona and the department provided me the warmest welcome and I‘m very excited to spend the next three months here, learning about the research conducted on site and advancing my PhD projects.

Full room of young political scientists yesterday in the first session of the BJ-REPS 🧑‍💻 at the UB. Thanks a lot to @ruizhdezmaria.bsky.social for presenting an awesome project! Also many thanks to Damjan Tomic for this amazing idea and to all the participants. Next month more!

🚨👀 Big news! The @yougov.co.uk German political team are launching our first MRP model of the 2025 German Bundestag election later this week. We'll be making detailed calls for every constituency, estimating regional list vote shares, and projecting how the parliament would shape up.

The GLES is gearing up for the 2025 early federal election! 🎉 The design includes pre- & post-election surveys, cross-sections & panels, and more to provide in-depth insights into voter and candidate behavior & attitudes. Stay tuned, more to come!📣 ➡️ gesis.org/gles

🚨 Data of GLES Panel Wave 27 have been pre-released! 🚨 ➡️ dx.doi.org/10.4232/1.14... 👥 8.263 interviews 📅 24/09–08/10/2024 Topics included, among others, the state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia.

Honoured that my joint work with @mbarnfield.bsky.social is mentioned in this piece. Also, this is not *just* another example of "Academics Share Posts That Say What They Want to Hear" (this is a silly nod to the title of our paper), I happen to mostly agree with the main argument put forward here 👇

A good news day :) "The Rainbow Vote" 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ is now under contract with @princetonupress.bsky.social Building on observational data & six original experiments, the book explores & explains the distinctiveness of queer voters in Europe and demonstrates how this has both social & political consequences

In other news: the European Social Survey has just announced the second release of round 11 data. Data is now available for 24 countries - including France. europeansocialsurvey.org/news/article...

🚨 New paper with @mbarnfield.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/ijpo... "Voters Share Polls That Say What They Want to Hear" was published last week at IJPOR. TL; DR: people are more likely to share polls on social media if their preferred party is in the lead #polisky

Very honored to receive the Uni Mannheim‘s CDSS teaching award for my course „Replication, replication“, where I introduced students to the world of R, aiming to give them confidence that they can replicate and critically assess existing research from early on in their R careers.

I’m very excited to see our paper „Rallying around the leader in times of crises: The opposing effects of perceived threat and anxiety“ (with Roni Lehrer , @okuspokus.bsky.social, Marcel Neunhoeffer, Thomas Gschwend and Sebastian Juhl) now published in EJPR! Check it out, it‘s open access:

Had a great time at #PSA2024 in Glasgow this week presenting an early version of a paper on survey cooperativeness in changing political environments. I also presented joint work with @milenarapp.bsky.social on how perceived voter-party environmental policy congruence affects voter attachment.

Most positions for postdocs on European social research at the MZES!! 👉 Check out our 3-6yr fellowship on European societies + integration tinyurl.com/ycd6wxn7 and our 2yr fellowships tinyurl.com/2vaxwmht. 📅 Deadline for both 22 Dec 2023 polisky #sociology #socialpsyc

🚨 Upcoming: "Finding, accessing, and re-using research data" 👥 Irene Schumm (UB Mannheim) and Ulrich Krieger (UB Mannheim, BERD@NFDI) 🗓️ Wed, Nov 15, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi... 🔗 Details: www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/socialscienc...

Are you a postdoc working on European social research? Then join us as the MZES as Visiting Fellow! Apply 📅 until 3 Dec 2023 to work at the MZES for 2-4 weeks. Funding for accommodation, travel, daily allowance. Interested? 👉 www.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/d7/en/news/i... polisky #sociology #socialpsyc