Brexit and Immigration: the Arc of the Pendulum My report out today for @consoc.bsky.social trying to make sense of the last 25 years of the UK's immigration politics and policy. And where next? consoc.org.uk/wp-content/u...

As the Home Secretary set out changes to asylum and returns policy, SMF Senior Fellow @JTMigratory.bsky.social argued the Govt's Danish-style immigration plans must meet the high expectations they have set. Read Jonathan's full reaction👇 buff.ly/cWR54us

Excellent two minute explainer from the US President in this video interview of the benefits of attracting international students. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...

My published letter to The Economist in response to its recent article on asylum seeker right to work in UK. www.economist.com/letters/2025... The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...

When I wrote about the looming fight in the UK over Indefinite Leave to Remain - back in May for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - it was a niche topic. Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins. Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.

My take on yet another change of Home Secretary. And in defence of the last one.

1/ Start of the HE academic year. 'Hello international students. Don't forget to leave' may seem a strange welcome message. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... But might international student numbers into UK remain higher than many expect? Why?

The Incredibles Nigel Farage's plan to tackle illegal immigration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond? For @smfthinktank.bsky.social www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Level of formal education = big dividing line on many issues in Western democracies - inc immigration = graduates typically pro more open policies.  If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...

Today's big UK immigration news. Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic... As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

UK Govt = addicted to keeping scary immigration stories in the news. Yesterday Serbian gang bosses Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers Tomorrow? Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware What's wrong with bliss? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

1/ UK Govt = keen to get credit for doing better job than previous govt on returning people not allowed to be in the UK. Understandable. But unfortunately: 1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

Latest UK Home Office annual accounts show Immigration Skills Charge receipts unsurprisingly falling back a little after last year's record, but still = nearly £1.25 billion over the last two years. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687774...

1/ Big UK-France deal today on Channel crossings. 5 key takeaways. 1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security 2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...

My piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the outbreak of ECHR fever across the UK political scene. And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.

Is the government's failure to bring back the Resident Labour Market Test actively undermining its aim to encourage more UK employers to invest in and hire domestic workers? www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p... For @smfthinktank.bsky.social

That 'asylum hotels' should feature at all, let alone so prominently, across the headlines written about the Spending Review, tells you something. I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.

1 - As I pointed out in www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u... - if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries - and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE - you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.

Thoughtful blog from @jtmigratory.bsky.social on the government's proposals on restricting migrants' right to settle/Indefinite Leave to Remain. As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2) www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

This, from @jtmigratory.bsky.social is a real must-read blog on the proposed WP settlement changes. TLDR: it is all about the money, and retrospective effect is highly possible www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

MAC review of IT and Engineering sectors' use of immigration is out. TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?' assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...

My thoughts for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on a key issue raised in recent UK Govt White paper on Immigration: - why is the Govt seeking to extend the qualifying period for permanent settlement in the UK? - why is Angela Rayner so interested? - and how to respond to this?

With money too tight to mention, scepticism is understandable that Immigration Skills Charge proceeds will at last now actually fund skills training. But this further detail from Govt is not unwelcome + as we have said repeatedly, the 'presentation' that this is happening is itself important.

Direction of travel on YMS seems right. Initial proposal by EU on YMS = bad deal - EU admitted so themselves. UK negotiating good YMS deal can be doubly good; will: (1) be a good deal (2) show UK is rule maker with the EU, not rule taker from it. Let's see ... www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

V supportive of this. This aligns with what we proposed in our @smfthinktank.bsky.social December 2022 'Routes to Resolution' report - excerpted. Times/Vibes diplomatically might be more favourable to this possibility now, although still huge challenges obvs.

My paper for @smfthinktank.bsky.social just out on: - the politics and principle of the Immigration White Paper, - what just happened and why, - and how should business respond.

My full report for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the Immigration White Paper coming shortly. For now: glad to see that this Govt has at least committed to use the Immigration Skills Charge for its proper purpose. This is much more impt than most people think. So I am liking the foot of page 27.

What might the German election tell us about UK immigration policy? My short piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Lord. Is there no sector not complaining of skills shortages? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Agree 100%. Lawyers have a duty to pull all the levers they can for their client. They can't be concerned with what the political headlines are going to look like. But the political headlines around this are terrible for more reasoned consideration around safe routes.

On its 5th anniversary: - what impact did Brexit have on immigration to the UK, and - why might the UK need to channel a little more 'art of the deal' in its efforts to reach agreement with the EU on youth mobility. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Guess it won't be happening. But interesting idea given higher min salary now reqd for skilled worker visa. Appealing to those overseas students not confident of making it up to skilled worker pay level post 2 yrs after uni but who might want to remain. Choice then wd = social care or Scotland?

The Home Office gets punched in the face for being too easy going on social care employers applying to employ carers from overseas - are those really genuine vacancies? So the Home Office starts being much stricter and gets punched in the face for that. Maybe it needs to duck more.

Great summary. Even by the high standards of immigration policy fights this particular topic gives rise to some superb match ups: Musk v Bannon Trump v Sanders Thankfully the evidence seems unclear, as we wouldn't want that getting in the way.

1. Graduates have more recently come to be seen as the bulwark of liberal democracy in the UK and all that goes with that - inc a more open approach to immigration. 2. But what would happen if graduates concluded this system was no longer working so well for them? 3. We might be about to find out.

A story that backs up the long term evidence.  That development does not typically reduce emigration.  But tends to increase it.  By resulting in greater inequality + ambition + envy + opportunity. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Masterful exposition of the politics of illegal immigration Trump-style www.economist.com/united-state...

Fascinating picture: expansion of Higher Education places in UK + greater personal investment required to access them = explosion of earning WHILE learning, to support learning = fundamentally different HE experience and challenges now for many students. What does this mean? How to respond?

Immigration continues to reorder British politics. For the reason set out here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ecQ...

Rather than endlessly just rejecting evidence you don't like, which risks looking in bad faith, why not instead say: 'we can't comment on that evidence but here is why we don't believe this evidence is representative and why we think the system works fairly overall'. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A flurry of big numbers and speeches on immigration to the UK. Apparently we've been doing immigration all wrong, and need a reset. Maybe we should start by better using what we've already got in place. conservativehome.com/2024/12/02/j...

How's the morning been for the UK parties most invested in the latest immigration stats release (to June 2024)? (1) Labour = not bad - their aim to cut immigration is now vs even more elevated high watermark level of net migration under last govt (2) Reform = perfect (3) Conservatives = uh-oh ...

One of the biggest headscratchers is that the cause of the upward revisions is stated to be missing large numbers of (1) Ukrainians and (2) international student switchers into graduate visas which would seem two of the easier bits of the system to be tracking?

Just caught up with the BBC two-parter - essentially the politics of immigration in the UK: the highlights of the last 25 years. With all the major voices and perspectives featured. Great job. www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

Balanced assessment of the growing tensions in Ireland over some aspects of immigration. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Interesting report from @jtmigratory.bsky.social at the @smfthinktank.bsky.social about immigration and skills policy. There’s a lot of interesting stuff in this. www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...

Out today for @smfthinktank.bsky.social Why joined-up immigration and skills policy is set to become a key political battleground in the UK. And what that might mean for how it is run and who runs it. www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...