How will Burnham do? Local election results set the stage for a pivotal by-election in Makerfield, where Andy Burnham will stand for Labour. Reform UK won 24 of 25 wards in Wigan, with vote shares ranging from 29% in Atherton North (the only ward not won by Reform) to 56% in Abram. #ChartOfTheDay

Economic inactivity has historically been higher in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the UK. Policies to address inactivity have long been in place, but there is a lack of understanding of the specific barriers facing people that lead them to be neither in employment nor actively seeking work.

NEW on the Economics Observatory – Why is economic inactivity so persistent in Northern Ireland? by Anne Devlin & Thomas Hastings

JUST PUBLISHED – Why is economic inactivity so persistent in Northern Ireland? by Anne Devlin & Thomas Hastings

Stimulating growth is one of the government’s top priorities. Traditionally, reducing labour market insecurities has been pursued as a separate goal. But five policy areas could boost both productivity and equality: small and medium-sized firms, pay transparency, recruitment, localism and training.

NEW on the Economics Observatory – Which policies can both boost growth and help people on low incomes? by Raj Patel

JUST PUBLISHED – Which policies can both boost growth and help people on low incomes? by Raj Patel

🗳️ ELECTION DAY IN MANCHESTER Today's results across Greater Manchester's ten boroughs will be read as a verdict on Labour nationally. But they may also reflect something closer to home — a decade of devolution that has delivered real gains in growth, health, and transport.

🗳️ ELECTION DAY IN SCOTLAND Questions about Scotland's constitutional future remain open. But today's election will reflect the immediate challenges – stagnant living standards, an ageing population, & rising public spending. The next parliament will face some difficult choices.

🗳️ ELECTION DAY IN WALES After over a century of Labour dominance, today's Senedd election could produce a seismic result — with the race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, against a backdrop of economic anxiety around jobs, earnings and living standards.

🗳️ ELECTION DAY IN LONDON For nearly 30 years, Labour has depended on the capital as a rock-solid source of parliamentary strength. But after today, will the party be ejected from its safest seats?

Tomorrow is election day across England, Scotland and Wales! 🗳️ This week the Economics Observatory has been examining the parties’ prospects, and what the economic backdrop tells us about why the political map is shifting. What’s at stake? 👇

As we go to the polls this Thursday, London's council elections are looking fiercely competitive. Labour is projected to hold most boroughs, but more than half will be decided by five points or less. #ChartOfTheDay

European NATO members have ramped up defence spending sharply over the past decade. Poland, Norway and Denmark posted the largest increases relative to GDP, each more than doubling their military burden since 2016. In absolute terms, Germany ($114bn) has overtaken the UK ($89bn) and France ($68bn).

NEW on the Economics Observatory - No overall control by Finn McEvoy

Elections in the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester provide voters with an opportunity to pass judgement on Labour nationally. But the results may also reflect views on what’s been happening across the city-region, where productivity growth has been strong, and public health and transport improved.

NEW on the Economics Observatory - UK local elections 2026: what are the prospects in Manchester? By Andy Westwood

Longstanding questions around Scotland’s constitutional future remain open. But the more immediate challenges are economic and fiscal. Slow growth in living standards, an ageing population and rising public spending pressures mean that the next parliament will face difficult budgetary choices.

Disruptions on the London Underground have increased steadily since 2021, with 2024 as the worst year on record. Five of the ten most disrupted months fell in 2024, and severe delays have risen every year since 2021. #ChartOfTheDay

NEW on the Economics Observatory – Scotland’s parliamentary election 2026: what are the big economic choices? By Graeme Roy @ProfGraemeRoy

JUST PUBLISHED – Scotland’s parliamentary election 2026: what are the big economic choices? by Graeme Roy @ProfGraemeRoy buff.ly/zomLlv7

For nearly three decades, Labour has depended on the capital as a rock-solid source of parliamentary strength. After the local election votes are counted, the party will have to think long and hard about whether it has taken London for granted and now risks being ejected from its safest seats. 👇

JUST PUBLISHED – UK local elections 2026: what are the prospects in London? buff.ly/mXUGKDc

Developing countries are often vulnerable to fuel price shocks caused by global geopolitical tensions. As well as raising the costs of key items such as petrol and food, conflicts like the Iran war can force affected governments into expensive subsidies, further damaging already weak economies.

More often than not, the political answer to the North of England’s economic challenges is more trains. Yet while fresh investment in rail infrastructure may boost prosperity in certain places, it isn’t the catch-all solution that some politicians present it to be. 👇

JUST PUBLISHED – How is the conflict in the Middle East affecting developing economies? By Lotanna E. Emediegwu 👇 buff.ly/wN1kNsw

NEW on the Economics Observatory – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? By @paulswinney.bsky.social

JUST PUBLISHED – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? By @paulswinney.bsky.social

IEA projects that data centres could more than double their energy use by 2030 due to AI demand. Hyperscalers like AWS and Google are projected to lead growth, but colocation and service providers that rent server space and single-firm enterprise servers will still play a large role. #ChartOfTheDay

AI usage among students has exploded over the past few years. Currently, approximately two-thirds of university students in the United Kingdom use generative AI for their studies, compared to fewer than one in five in 2023. #ChartOfTheDay

Since 2014, the post-communist NATO members — Poland, the Baltic states, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria — have more than doubled their combined share of alliance defence spending, from 1.8% to 4.1% in 2024. #ChartOfTheDay

The history of British defence policy has been one of constant imbalance between resources, capability and commitments, interspersed with reviews that fail to solve the fundamental problems. These appraisals are typically done at times of economic crisis when public expenditure must be controlled.

TODAY on the Economics Observatory – UK national security: what have we learned from strategic defence reviews? 🔎 Revisiting Ron Smith's 2025 analysis.

UK-India trade has grown significantly, with services now dominating both sides. Services exports to India have nearly tripled since 2014, while services imports from India have surged even more, reaching roughly £25 billion by 2024, widening the UK's trade deficit with India. #ChartOfTheDay

The UK lags the US significantly in venture capital investment across all maturity stages. US later-stage VC investment represents 0.29% of GDP compared to the UK's 0.09%, while early-stage investment is 0.19% in the US versus 0.07% in the UK. #ChartOfTheDay

The UK has the highest industrial electricity prices among IEA countries at 26.6 pence per kWh in 2024. This is 75% above the IEA median and more than four times higher than the US and Norway. #ChartOfTheDay

Sterling net lending to PNFCs reached £457bn in 2025. As a share of GDP, it has declined from a peak of 31% in 2009 to 15% in 2025, suggesting businesses are increasingly relying on internal funding or non-bank capital sources. #ChartOfTheDay

Risk aversion is the primary barrier preventing UK SMEs from seeking external finance, cited by 63% of businesses that needed but did not apply for funding. Cost concerns (60%) and unfavorable economic conditions (59%) were also major deterrents. #ChartOfTheDay

Industrial electricity prices in the UK surged after Q4 2020. Prices peaked at 28.4 pence per kWh (including CCL) in Q4 2023, more than seven times 2004 levels. Prices have since declined to 23.5 pence per kWh by Q3 2025.

One in three UK workers uses generative AI on the job (36%). That's ahead of Germany (32%), France (28%), and Italy (26%), but behind the US, where 43% of workers have adopted it. #ChartOfTheDay

The benefits of distinctive urban architecture extend far beyond the buildings themselves, but the costs are borne by the developers. This can lead to underinvestment in high-quality design – and it raises the question of whether policy should encourage better architecture. 👇

The FT 1000 fastest-growing European companies list shows the UK still punches above its weight in Fintech, Financial Services and Insurance compared to European peers, while France and Germany perform better in Construction and Engineering. #ChartOfTheDay

NEW on the Economics Observatory – Why don’t we have nicer buildings? By @ahlfeldt.bsky.social, Ailin Zhang & Elisabetta Pietrostefani

JUST PUBLISHED – Why don’t we have nicer buildings? By @ahlfeldt.bsky.social, Ailin Zhang & Elisabetta Pietrostefani

Economic uncertainty is surging as a top business challenge (32%), second only to labour costs, signaling growing anxiety about the macroeconomic outlook heading into 2026. #ChartOfTheDay

UK total debt is 239% of GDP. Government debt remains above 100% after the pandemic, among the highest in the G7. Corporate debt is the lowest in the group at 61%, while household debt is 76%, which is higher than France or Italy, but below Canada. #ChartOfTheDay

NEW on the Economics Observatory – How can the West of England contribute to UK economic growth? By Lucy Martin of @thebrunelcentre.bsky.social 👇

With geopolitical instability and supply chain pressures showing no sign of abating, UK households continue to face a persistent cost of living squeeze. A basket of six grocery essentials has risen sharply since 2021 and remains at historically elevated levels. #ChartOfTheDay

The UK has the lowest investment rate among major OECD economies, and while investment has been falling across OECD countries since the 1970s, Britain has consistently sat at the bottom of the pack, hovering around 17-19% of GDP in recent years. #ChartOfTheDay

UK real wages have barely grown since 2007: from $62,816 to $63,691 by 2024 (+1.4%). Meanwhile, the US rose 18%, Poland 63%, South Korea 46%, and the OECD average climbed. Ireland briefly overtook the UK in 2020 but fell to $60,431 by 2024, down 7.5%. #ChartOfTheDay