Action to address climate change can drive strong, sustainable growth. The state is central in setting the direction of change and mobilising investment and innovation to achieve it. But time is not on our side. Research to guide policy has never been more urgent; it must proceed alongside action.

NEW on the Economics Observatory – What is the role of the state in fostering growth and the green transition? by Delfina Godfrid & Nicholas Stern

Andy Burnham looks set to become the UK's next PM, with devolution top of his agenda — shifting power from Westminster to mayors & local authorities. But the UK's tax system is deeply centralised. How does it compare to peer countries? 🧵 #ChartOfTheDay

JUST PUBLISHED – What is the role of the state in fostering growth and the green transition? by Delfina Godfrid & Nicholas Stern

With Canada–Morocco now under way, our latest World Cup simulations favour Morocco (70%), England (74%), Spain (72%) and Argentina (77%) to reach the quarter-finals. See the full Elo predictions, and why altitude may not dramatically change England’s odds #FWC26 #CANMAR👇 @jjreade buff.ly/rb7t9mK

Job quality matters as much for wellbeing as physical health. Yet we rarely measure it. New research explains why governments should pay much more attention to the quality – not just the quantity – of work. By @francisgreen1.bsky.social buff.ly/6UJrLph

NEW on the Economics Observatory – Beyond wages: what makes a good job? By Francis Green @francisgreen1.bsky.social 👇

Across Europe, extreme heat days that were once rare exceptions are becoming increasingly common. Warsaw recorded its first ever day above 35°C only last year. London had none until 2019. Paris saw 5 such days in 2026 alone, up from zero before 2003. #ChartOfTheDay

One of the strangest charts in the UK tax system More taxpayers are earning just under £100k than around £83k Why? Crossing £100k triggers a series of tax and benefit cliff edges. Many people respond rationally: reduce hours, reject promotions or boost pension contributions

Nearly a decade on from the Brexit vote, the EU still takes around half of UK goods trade, but less than before. Its share of UK goods imports has slipped from 54% to 51% since 2016, while its share of UK exports is barely changed at 48%. #ChartOfTheDay

NEW on the Economics Observatory – The good, the bad and the ugly: what scenarios for UK inflation? by Huw Dixon

Can the Coral Triangle, home to some of the world's most biodiverse marine ecosystems, meet its 2030 conservation targets? Four decades of data show minimal progress. #ChartofTheWeek

JUST PUBLISHED – The good, the bad and the ugly: what scenarios for UK inflation? by Huw Dixon

JUST PUBLISHED – France’s socio-economic attainment gap in schools: how might it be closed? by Sixtine Leonard

Keir Starmer resigned as Britain's fifth prime minister since 2016, a period marked by rapid leadership turnover and an average tenure of about two years. By contrast, in previous decades, long-serving leaders were common, including Macmillan, Thatcher, and Blair. #ChartOfTheDay

How have Trump's immigration enforcement tactics changed since his first term?🧵👇

Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election with 55% of the vote, piling pressure on Keir Starmer. Reform UK came second with 35%, newcomers Restore Britain took 7%, and turnout hit 58.8%. Could Burnham be heading to No. 10? #ChartOfTheDay

The New York Knicks ended a 53-year championship drought over the weekend, their first title since 1973. They are one of eight NBA franchises to have waited over 50 years for a championship. #ChartOfTheDay

Is the United Kingdom's productivity showing signs of recovery? The overall data since 2019 indicates a modest increase, with output per hour rising by 2.0%. However, this improvement is concentrated within a limited number of sectors. #ChartOfTheDay

World Cup Groups K & L, the last to start, are strongly linked: it’s likely that 3 teams will qualify from each & all would then face a team from the other group. England’s best chances of progress in the knockout stages are to come 3rd – but they should definitely avoid 2nd👇

SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history. Its stock-market debut valued the company at $1,765bn, more than London's eleven largest listed companies combined: HSBC, AstraZeneca, Shell, and eight others, which together reach $1,751bn, just short of a single SpaceX. #ChartOfTheDay

UK youth unemployment has nearly doubled since 2022. The unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds not in full-time education has risen from 7.6% to 14.6%, its highest since 2014 and above the COVID-19 peak. A weakening labour market is hitting young people hardest. #ChartOfTheDay

JUST PUBLISHED – World Cup 2026 previews for Groups A and B: what does scorecasting suggest? By J. James Reade

The Philippines experiences some of the world's most frequent seismic activity, recording over 40 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater in the past 5 years. The 7.8 earthquake that struck off Mindanao this week was the largest in this period, surpassing the previous high of 7.6 from December 2023.

Digital industries make up nearly 12% of London's economy — almost double the UK average of 7.2%. As #LondonTechWeek starts today, the latest DCMS data confirms that the capital is by far the UK's most digitally intensive regional economy. #ChartOfTheDay

TODAY on the Economics Observatory – Are more trains the answer to economic struggles in the North of England? by Paul Swinney

In their recent paper, Lambert & Schindler find that remote work, rather than AI, appears to be the main factor behind the decline in early-career hiring. Accounting for how remote a role is, the apparent AI effect fades, while the remote-work effect holds #ChartOfTheDay

🌡️ London's late May bank holiday has never been so hot. In 87 years of records, none have come close. London hit 33.8°C on Monday. That is 4.3°C above the previous record set in 1944. #ChartOfTheDay

Non-fatal strangulation is a dangerous and under-recognised form of domestic abuse, especially since it may leave little visible injury. Legislation that makes it a standalone offence will not only reduce violence inflicted on intimate partners, but also help to prevent escalation into homicide.

NEW on the Economics Observatory – Can strangulation laws reduce intimate partner violence and homicides? by Sonia Oreffice & @climent.bsky.social

UK net migration has fallen to 171,000, the lowest level since the new post-Brexit immigration system began. That is 82% below the early-2023 peak of 944,000 and roughly half of last year's figure.

JUST PUBLISHED – Can strangulation laws reduce intimate partner violence and homicides? by Sonia Oreffice & @climent.bsky.social

NEW on the Economics Observatory – How do climate disasters affect pro-environmental behaviour? by Derrick Xu

JUST PUBLISHED – How do climate disasters affect pro-environmental behaviour? by Derrick Xu

How will Burnham do? Local election results set the stage for a pivotal by-election in Makerfield, where Andy Burnham will stand for Labour. Reform UK won 24 of 25 wards in Wigan, with vote shares ranging from 29% in Atherton North (the only ward not won by Reform) to 56% in Abram. #ChartOfTheDay

Economic inactivity has historically been higher in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the UK. Policies to address inactivity have long been in place, but there is a lack of understanding of the specific barriers facing people that lead them to be neither in employment nor actively seeking work.

NEW on the Economics Observatory – Why is economic inactivity so persistent in Northern Ireland? by Anne Devlin & Thomas Hastings

JUST PUBLISHED – Why is economic inactivity so persistent in Northern Ireland? by Anne Devlin & Thomas Hastings

Stimulating growth is one of the government’s top priorities. Traditionally, reducing labour market insecurities has been pursued as a separate goal. But five policy areas could boost both productivity and equality: small and medium-sized firms, pay transparency, recruitment, localism and training.

NEW on the Economics Observatory – Which policies can both boost growth and help people on low incomes? by Raj Patel

JUST PUBLISHED – Which policies can both boost growth and help people on low incomes? by Raj Patel

🗳️ ELECTION DAY IN MANCHESTER Today's results across Greater Manchester's ten boroughs will be read as a verdict on Labour nationally. But they may also reflect something closer to home — a decade of devolution that has delivered real gains in growth, health, and transport.

🗳️ ELECTION DAY IN SCOTLAND Questions about Scotland's constitutional future remain open. But today's election will reflect the immediate challenges – stagnant living standards, an ageing population, & rising public spending. The next parliament will face some difficult choices.

🗳️ ELECTION DAY IN WALES After over a century of Labour dominance, today's Senedd election could produce a seismic result — with the race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, against a backdrop of economic anxiety around jobs, earnings and living standards.

🗳️ ELECTION DAY IN LONDON For nearly 30 years, Labour has depended on the capital as a rock-solid source of parliamentary strength. But after today, will the party be ejected from its safest seats?

Tomorrow is election day across England, Scotland and Wales! 🗳️ This week the Economics Observatory has been examining the parties’ prospects, and what the economic backdrop tells us about why the political map is shifting. What’s at stake? 👇

As we go to the polls this Thursday, London's council elections are looking fiercely competitive. Labour is projected to hold most boroughs, but more than half will be decided by five points or less. #ChartOfTheDay

European NATO members have ramped up defence spending sharply over the past decade. Poland, Norway and Denmark posted the largest increases relative to GDP, each more than doubling their military burden since 2016. In absolute terms, Germany ($114bn) has overtaken the UK ($89bn) and France ($68bn).

NEW on the Economics Observatory - No overall control by Finn McEvoy

Elections in the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester provide voters with an opportunity to pass judgement on Labour nationally. But the results may also reflect views on what’s been happening across the city-region, where productivity growth has been strong, and public health and transport improved.