Here it is, my magnum opus: an analysis of what’s wrong with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy (under this and previous governments), and a proposal for what an alternative to pass-fail fiscal rules could look like. I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.

Very pleased that our paper examining how doctors respond to changes to their pensions is now published in the Journal of Health Economics. We find that consultants in the English NHS responded to changes in their pensions similarly to how existing evidence suggests they may respond to pay.

There is an increasing sense that the UK's approach towards fiscal policymaking, and in particular the excessive focus on "headroom", isn't delivering good outcomes. Come along on 19 February to hear me make the case for how we could do things differently, and to hear from our terrific panel.

The @lowpaycommission.bsky.social annual report is out. As always contains lots of insights. This is key chart for me: 20% of jobs are now paid within £1 of the minimum wage, up from 14% in 2015. Whatever you think of the minimum wage, its increasingly important!

NEW PODCAST: Why isn't the NHS improving faster? @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich examine the latest data on NHS performance, progress on waiting lists and the big challenges around staffing, winter and flu cases. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/why...

DHSC published its impact statement for the 10 Year Health Plan this week (yes, that is 6 months after it published the plan) It's more measured and clear-eyed than the original document and quite a contrast to some of the effusive optimism in the plan Some of the things that caught my eye 👇

There's now data out about the resident doctor strikes last month So how disruptive did they end up being? And what can we say about how the NHS is responding to ongoing strikes? Short 🧵👇

This is important as last month's OBR forecast (no monthly breakdown of this yet) expects a big increase in receipts by 2029/30 from higher inflation, boosting the public finances. That may materialise, but it’s concerning that it hasn’t yet - one watch out for in the new year

New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations. Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast

A short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published. We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.

NEW: How did the introduction of the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) change London’s geography of work? In a new @theifs.bsky.social paper, @joelkariel.bsky.social, Fizza Jabbar and I have taken a look – and it turns out people adapt in surprising ways. A thread. 1/

NHS England has now produced two sets of productivity growth rates for each NHS acute trust. These are year-on-year growth rates, only 3 months apart (so have a 9 month overlap). But what's striking is that they are essentially uncorrelated!? [1/2]

Hospitals currently have a lot more people admitted with flu than at the same time in recent years. It remains to be seen how the peak will compare to previous years. (Half the IFS healthcare team are also currently laid low with it...) www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c6...

NEW: Hospital productivity growth is beating the government’s targets. So why hasn't the NHS made more progress on cutting elective waiting times? In a new @theifs.bsky.social comment, we examine what’s driving the divergence between two of the government’s biggest NHS priorities. 1/11

Would you like to lead our @theifs.bsky.social work on healthcare? We are looking to recruit an outstanding economist to become an Associate Director and lead a programme of economic research on health and/or healthcare. Job advert here: app.beapplied.com/apply/jfzr0z...

NEW: What are Rachel Reeves’ options if she decides to change departmental spending at next week’s Budget? 📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...

The IFS has calculated that the effective carbon price on household use of gas is negative, thanks to its lower VAT rate. ifs.org.uk/articles/tax.... This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!

Elective waiting times in the NHS have improved since Labour came to office, but relatively slowly. Improvements in 18 week performance will have to pick up speed considerably if the government are to hit their headline NHS target by the end of the parliament.

On the question of one vs two OBR forecasts per year... The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!

NEW PODCAST: The end of the peace dividend? UK defence in a changing world 🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

One of my favourite charts from our new report on defence spending: For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case

In new @theifs.bsky.social work, we examine the fiscal challenge of the UK's commitment to higher defence spending. If met, for the first time in a long time health and defence spending would likely rise simultaneously (as a % of GDP). This would change the shape and/or size of the state.

Some great charts in this report. This one is my favourite. The UK has signed up the new NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. The scale of the increase is fiscally challenging, and we've given ourselves a decade. Poland, on the other hand, has done it in just two years.

We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today on UK defence spending. Defence spending commitments, if met, will have a large impact on the shape and/or size of the state. We cover lots of important aspects of defence spending, including international comparisons and impacts on growth

We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at the government's ambitious plans for public sector productivity. If productivity growth disappoints, the govt will have to choose between worse public service performance than planned or topping up budgets

A key factor at the next election will be the state of Britain's public services. That will depend on whether the government can make those services more productive, to deliver more without huge cash injections. Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...

Govt plans for public service spending and performance rely on ambitious productivity plans. Next Friday we have an @theifs.bsky.social online event looking at these plans and their implications, with new analysis from us and reflections from @jeremyhuntmp.bsky.social. ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...

When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms: ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...

There are reports that the government is considering changing student loans or pensions for resident doctors. We've written a new @theifs.bsky.social comment on the potential merits of such changes. Here's a summary:

@benzaranko.bsky.social and I have a new paper out in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on the future of health and social care provision in the UK. It sets out the challenges and opportunities for increasing inputs and productivity in the NHS and adult social care in the coming decades

NEW: A response to government commitment to spend 5% of GDP on national security @beeboileau.bsky.social‬ and @maxwarner.bsky.social‬ set out what this could mean for government spending and future fiscal events: ifs.org.uk/articles/res...

Spending on the new childcare entitlements next year could be £1bn higher than initially forecast in March 2023 - a 25% increase. So what's going on? I break down the numbers that @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out in @theifs.bsky.social post-Spending Review briefing.

Great work from my colleagues out today on Crown Court productivity. A relatively good news story for broader public sector productivity, with complexity adjusted Crown Court productivity appearing to have returned to pre-pandemic levels

We're now just under a week away from the Spending Review, the first multi-year spending review since 2021. Sign up for our post-Review analysis the morning after at 10:30am: ifs.org.uk/events/spend...

This is a key point from our pre Spending Review report. Increasing NHS capital spending implies cuts to capital spending on other areas, e.g. transport, schools or net zero, given defence plans. Seems unlikely the NHS will see a large increase in capital spending at the SR.

We have a new IFS report out on the key decisions for the govt at the upcoming Spending Review. A short thread on what the Spending Review could mean for health spending – and why health spending matters so much for everything else. 1/12

NEW: Four big decisions for the 2025 Spending Review @beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explain why tough choices will be unavoidable at the upcoming Spending Review in our new briefing:

Lots of discussion today about regional investment. You can use our @theifs.bsky.social public spending tool to explore how much the government currently spends in each region of the UK, what it spends it on, and how that has changed over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...

We have a new report out on the relationship between health-related benefits and NHS waiting lists/times. Short answer (with caveats) is that longer NHS waits do not appear to be the main driver of rising health-related benefit claims. See Ben's thread below for more details and lots of charts.

Today the government announced more detail on how they plan to tackle the large number of small pots in the UK pension system. The reforms are due to be announced in the upcoming Pension Schemes bill this spring. A few thoughts on why this matters and what was announced. 👇

On 16 March, DHSC announced “crack teams” of top clinicians working in 20 trusts had reduced the waiting list by 130% more than in trusts elsewhere. As a result, the scheme (called FF20 – Further Faster 20), is being rolled out across the country. The claim examined🧵 www.gov.uk/government/n...

We've built a new IFS tool which can be used to explore what the government spends money on, and where in the UK benefits from that spending. Here it is: ifs.org.uk/calculators/.... Short thread on what you can do with the tool:

We @theifs.bsky.social have built a new online tool that allows you to examine in depth where and how the government spends its money. You can check it out here: ifs.org.uk/calculators/... A short thread on the key features with some health spending examples

NEW: Can the government hit its 18 week waiting times target? I have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today (with Olly Harvey-Rich) that models how – and whether – the NHS can hit the 18 week target. A quick thread 🧵 bsky.app/profile/thei...

NEW: It has been widely reported that the government is looking to make significant savings from the working-age disability and incapacity benefits budget. How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required? [THREAD]

On Monday I tried to explain why NHSE and ONS were finding such different things for NHS productivity in the last year (see thread below). Today both orgs have published more details about how their measures compare. Another short thread…

The Ministry of Justice was a relative winner in the Autumn Budget. But if you take a longer view, the department has really taken a beating. It’s done worse than the average department, worse than the average ‘unprotected’ department, and it spends less now than it did 20 years ago. [thread]

Today the ONS have published new estimates of UK healthcare productivity. They estimate that productivity has declined substantially, while last week NHS England estimated that English acute hospital productivity has increased. What’s going on? A short thread