As @maxwarner.bsky.social says here, any growth benefits of higher defence spending depend on how it's funded. Rumours this week suggested the govt was considering funding top ups by cutting other investment. This would weaken any case that higher defence spending is an 'engine for growth'

Lots of discussion in recent weeks about how to fund the (much-delayed!) Defence Investment Plan. While this is important, it is only the first step in the longer-term and much larger defence spending increase this government has committed to. A short thread:

The constant rumours around marginally different top ups to defence spending alongside the Defence Investment Plan over the last few months have been frustrating. As Max sets out, the DIP is just one part of the govt's overall plan to increase defence spending and capabilities

NEW: ‘Help to Buy’ schemes mainly increased affordability for higher earners living in cheap areas, with limited impact on social mobility 🧵 @beeboileau.bsky.social, Lucas Conwell and @peterlevell.bsky.social’s new research examines the impact of Help to Buy on housing affordability: [THREAD]

It is a weird situation where the govt accepted recommendations from a defence review asked to operate ‘within the context of a transition to 2.5% of GDP’, then were near-immediately told the transition to 2.5% of GDP was nowhere near enough to fund the recommendations…

From next Monday, the state pension age (SPA) will start gradually going up again from 66 to 67, affecting people born on or after 6 April 1960. What is the rationale for this? What effects might it have on people? And should we expect any further increases? [THREAD]

Today we updated our @theifs.bsky.social spending tool with 2024-25 data! Do have a play around with it if you're having a quiet Friday afternoon - it lets you produce some nice breakdowns of different types of spending, across different areas and over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...

NEW PODCAST: The Spring Forecast explained @helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @beeboileau.bsky.social discuss the Spring Forecast. We cover rising energy prices and what the big forecast uncertainties mean for government spending plans. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/spr...

The Spring Forecast confirmed that the Spending Review next year looks tough. Plans are currently for departmental spending to grow by just 0.9% per year on average in real terms in the next Spending Review period, much slower than planned for the first part of the parliament.

I had a great time chatting about older people with @timharford.ft.com on BBC4 More or Less. The starting question was – are one in four pensioners really millionaires? Quick thread below: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Further to this, in a (plausible) scenario presented by the OBR, official plans imply that "unprotected" departments would face cuts of >3% per year, equivalent to more than £20 billion, between 2029 and 2031. That includes police, courts, job centres, colleges, prisons, HMRC, border force... 🤔

Underrated part of yesterday's Budget was what's happening to public service spending in 2028-29. Spending Review settlements reopened just 5 months after the SR to account for loosely-specified 'efficiency savings' of £1.4bn in 28-29 (rising to 4bn in 29-30)

We've written an explainer going through some of the options available to the Chancellor on departmental spending at next week's Budget:

We have a new report out on health & employment in people's late 50s and early 60s. One key finding is these widening gaps in the share of women experiencing depressive symptoms by wealth - likely to be an important headwind for a government looking to boost employment rates.

NEW PODCAST: The end of the peace dividend? UK defence in a changing world 🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

In new @theifs.bsky.social work, we examine the fiscal challenge of the UK's commitment to higher defence spending. If met, for the first time in a long time health and defence spending would likely rise simultaneously (as a % of GDP). This would change the shape and/or size of the state.

Some great charts in this report. This one is my favourite. The UK has signed up the new NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. The scale of the increase is fiscally challenging, and we've given ourselves a decade. Poland, on the other hand, has done it in just two years.

NEW: A response to government commitment to spend 5% of GDP on national security @beeboileau.bsky.social‬ and @maxwarner.bsky.social‬ set out what this could mean for government spending and future fiscal events: ifs.org.uk/articles/res...

Wrote pre-SR in the @observeruk.bsky.social about the pressures on defence spending & the risk that existing plans - which were confirmed at the SR - will need to be topped up in future: observer.co.uk/news/busines...

The govt's allocation of additional investment over this parliament is a good guide to its overall priorities - we're seeing big increases to defence and net zero, with less for more primarily growth-friendly areas (incl a real-terms cut to transport capital over the parliament)

🚨 OUT NOW 🚨 How do spending reviews work? 💷 Tory MP John Glen, former minister Brandon Lewis, former special adviser Sonia Khan and economists @tompope.bsky.social‬ & @beeboileau.bsky.social join @alaintolhurst.bsky.social to look behind the Treasury's spending plans 🎧 Listen here: pod.fo/e/2e0742

NEW: Four big decisions for the 2025 Spending Review @beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explain why tough choices will be unavoidable at the upcoming Spending Review in our new briefing:

Lots of discussion today about regional investment. You can use our @theifs.bsky.social public spending tool to explore how much the government currently spends in each region of the UK, what it spends it on, and how that has changed over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...

EVENT: A look ahead to the 2025 Spending Review Join us at 11am on Monday 2 June for analysis of the key choices at next month's Spending Review, with speakers @beeboileau.bsky.social and @instituteforgovernment.org.uk's @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social. Sign up here: ifs.org.uk/events/look-...

Rather than doom-scrolling/trying to desperately learn what a ‘Treasury basis trade’ is, why not play with our new tool instead? Allows you to see, in lots of detail, how much the government spends on different things in each region (£, £ per person, % GDP). I’ll post some nice examples later.

We've built a new IFS tool which can be used to explore what the government spends money on, and where in the UK benefits from that spending. Here it is: ifs.org.uk/calculators/.... Short thread on what you can do with the tool:

We’ve written two new reports on the decisions people face when drawing on private pension wealth in retirement & policy reforms that might help improve these decisions. Important to get this right as defined contribution pensions get more important & can now be accessed flexibly. Thread below:

Looking forward to speaking at this event tomorrow morning on the challenges faced by people managing their pension wealth in retirement. Do come along for some discussion of what one Nobel Prize-winning economist called 'the nastiest, hardest problem in finance' (!)

NEW: A look ahead to the Spring Forecast @beeboileau.bsky.social, Carl Emmerson, @matthewoulton.bsky.social, Isabel Stockton & @benzaranko.bsky.social look at the Chancellor’s options in the upcoming Spring Forecast: [THREAD: 1/6]