Excellent stuff from @tom-clark.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Lots of people asking this question. Some good answers here from @tom-clark.bsky.social

Useful stats c/o @newstatesman1913.bsky.social .. so maybe a 6.5% swing to Lab from where we’d be at a general right now is required Will 🧵 a couple of examples of individuals moving the swingometer a long way

Josh Simons standing down makes me think of what Metternich said on the death of Talleyrand (‘I wonder what he meant by that’).

Does anyone think Makerfield looks even half-winnable for Labour? Seriously?

Will any leader who harbours half a dream of being PM one day ever run for a metro-mayoralty again? A side effect of this week: re-centralising the focus of politics

A 93-0 vote in the Knesset for a retrospective death penalty for October 7 assailants However ghastly that atrocity, the lack of opposition speaks volumes about the illiberal drift of a political culture of a state that hasn't (officially) executed anyone in 64 years www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Vox pops = notorious But hearing so many today, the sheer numbers could make them (slightly) more meaningful And every news bulletin I catch keeps playing men demanding regime change, and women sounding unsure about what it would achieve

Who'd have thought Catherine West not doing something would hold the headlines through a frantic news afternoon!

If you’re interested in the baby bust in Britain & beyond, click now — the Prospect paywall is down till 10AM

It’s the final day of @prospectmagazine.co.uk paywall holiday! Have a free read of my piece on the baby bust, the coming natural shrinkage of Britain’s population — and eventually the world’s www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...

🚨 | Projected National Share had there been elections everywhere, and those who didn’t have an election this time voted similarly to those who did ➡️ Reform 26% 🌍 Greens 18% 🌹 Labour 17% 🌳 Conservatives 17% 🔶 Lib Dems 16% ℹ️ Others 6% Via @BBCPolitics

Sensational gains for Reform, but in terms of claims about it being the new “national party” it’s worth saying that 27% is just below what Michael Foot’s Labour achieved in 1983

Good grief. Manchester Labour rode out the late Blair/ Brown dip in good shape. Not this time.

I fear Labour people risk falling into an ecological fallacy visible from space when reacting to these results. Here is what is very clear in results so far: Labour are losing *seats* to Reform, but... Labour are losing *votes* to the Greens Greens split the vote, Ref comes thru middle

Trying & failing to recall ever having seen a swing above 50 points

As the polls close, a quick round-up of the key questions I'll want answered by the results, and what to look out for as they come in. Overall, a full assessment shouldn't - and from me, won't - be made until all the results and metrics are available.

After blocking Burnham was followed by defeat in Gorton, the reported response to the (TBC) defeats in England, Scotland & Wales is… to block him again Now with an added twist — denying constituents in one seat any representation for as long as possible “Dissolve the people—and elect another”?

Could be time of day, but by it’s the busiest I’ve ever seen my local polling station for a council election

I was happy to play a walk-on part in this article, and Tom was kind enough to mention the 'electrifying gloom' of my recent tome 'The Decline and Fall of the Human Empire' @prospectmagazine.co.uk @picadorbooks.bsky.social @jillgrinberglit.bsky.social

🧵 'It's like thinking about climate change for the first time—this is going to affect EVERYTHING' As deaths permanently overtake British births, I've been delving into UK's baby bust I could hardly believe what I found - here with no paywall till Monday www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...

The @prospectmagazine.co.uk paywall is down! Read freely on bank holiday Including - @arusbridger.bsky.social on mobs & misinformation - @aloner.bsky.social on Golders Green - @davidallengreen.bsky.social on Trump’s gangsterism www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

The @prospectmagazine.co.uk paywall is down! Read freely on bank holiday Including - @arusbridger.bsky.social on mobs & misinformation - @aloner.bsky.social on Golders Green - @davidallengreen.bsky.social on Trump’s gangsterism www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

The recent antisemitic attacks make plain what many already feared: Jews have become dehumanised as symbols of Israel’s actions, writes Alona Ferber

We have dropped the paywall on the Prospect website until 10am Monday 11th May, giving you unlimited access to all our online articles!  Visit: www.prospectmagazine... to start reading now.

Paywall down at @prospectmagazine.co.uk! And for the next 10 days when loads more interesting stuff will be coming up Here's my last piece, on Mandygate, but don't just read that! Poke around and you'll find so much more. Fill your boots for free! www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/730...

Not 1 but 3 research jobs going at @resolutionfoundation.org - something for all levels of experience So whether you are a hardened economist or a young policy person looking to cut your teeth, have a click here www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

New report klaxon. We have published something on the UK's NEET problem (me + @alexclegg.bsky.social + @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social + Imogen + Lindsay). www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... Here is a thread with some of our findings.

What a peculiar Telegraph take on National Population Projections, showing rate of migration falling by a third & overall population growth petering out www.msn.com/en-gb/news/u...

This month's @resolutionfoundation.org report on Britain's "Baby Bust" just got even more relevant, with new official projections this morning showing - Number of kids falling by 1.6 million (12.7%) in decade to 2034 - fertility being revised down again

2026 now officially forecast to be permanent death-birth crossover year Gap will only get wider from now Migration only source of population growth - but a lot less of it than was projected last time

Just out -- National Population Projections - deaths outnumbering births over this decade - compared to last time we got similar stats, ONS projecting fewer births, more deaths, less immigration, more immigration - All told, a smaller population www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Odd that the Commons "Privileges" row seems to be increasingly focused on one detail that really can't be described as a cover-up Namely, the PM's public commentary/rhetoric regarding the testimony of a former official that the public had already heard

"There are certain conditions that in the vast majority of cases do not limit an individual’s ability to work... particularly mental-health conditions" A striking claim from the Tony Blair Institute this morning, in a report whose chief source of evidence seems to be... an opinion poll

10 lessons in economics from Chris Allsopp Insights from an terrific old teacher of mine, who I have only today discovered died last year www.linkedin.com/pulse/10-les...

10 lessons in economics from Chris Allsopp Insights from an terrific old teacher of mine, who I have only today discovered died last year www.linkedin.com/pulse/10-les...

What happens when you increase the Irish talent at RF....kudos to @cillian-sheehan.bsky.social for this chart of the week to lighten the mood as beer garden weather finally kicks in.

1 Successive governments have held up apprenticeships as a valid 16+ choice But specialist advisers SSAC have uncovered how a mismatch with benefits has evolved It puts big barriers in the way of young people taking up the best training for them My blog explains ssac.blog.gov.uk/2026/04/23/t...

Interesting details in next two posts on why inequality of pay has been falling. (Though always important to remember this is not the same thing as living standards, which are also affected by rent & wealth)

PODCAST The Mandelson affair -- and why Labour could use some family therapy (and perhaps a dash of valium) Tune In ... www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/podcasts/pro...

Inflation today bumps back up to 3.3%, as war hits the fuel pumps How bad things could get? Perfectly times RF briefing this morning will reveal all: tune in!

Temporary accommodation is a killer — linked to deaths of 104 children in last 6 years www.theguardian.com/society/2026...

My view on the Briefing Room 5 weeks ago was: If the Strait reopens in the next week, we have economic disruption but it’s manageable. Closed for another 4-8 weeks & we have high energy prices throughout the year. Closed for few months & all bets are off and we’re in a really grim economic world.

Process for people like Mandelson Vs Process for people like Louise Haigh www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/730...

RIP Robert Skidelsky Someone I got to know well on the page, before being lucky enough to get to know in person Restless in many of his views & not one to last long in any political tribe But consistent on Keynes—chronicling his life, expoudning his insights www.theguardian.com/books/2026/a...

Keir Starmer is a process man, writes @tom-clark.bsky.social for @prospectmagazine.co.uk, but his mishandling of the Mandelson appointment reveals the root cause of this disaster—and of the wider collapse in support for the government: Labour factionalism www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/730...

“The real mystery, then, is not why Robbins kept his mouth shut, by why Starmer kept his eyes shut to the palpable risks of appointing a twice-sacked, wealth-obsessed lobbyist, with Russian oligarch links” My take on the real roots of the Mandelson saga www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/730...

There might, I suppose, be circumstances where sacking permanent civil servants makes it more likely they’ll tell you awkward truths But not many

Most dangerous line from Robbins yet Among all the postmortems of the Mandelson disaster “the direction from No 10 was that we must make clear that these decisions were made entirely independently of ministers and they were not consulted, other than being told the outcomes”

Strange to hear former Cab Sec Chris Wormald (recently ousted by KS) called in aid by KS as the key arbiter of process — in order to desl with a Q about the sage advice of another former Cab Sec, Simon Case, about the desirability of vetting before committing to a name