Half reform inheritance tax so farmers treated a bit more like others Run into a backlash Wait Wait Wait till it’s dropped off radar Then decide that a quarter-reform might be better Will this win any votes? Hard to imagine What it will do is make it harder to make other policies stick

Capitalism tomes at the double... Prospect Magazine (UK) reviewed Capitalism and Its Critics alongside Sven Beckert's Capitalism: A Global History. Thanks to Tom Clark for a thoughtful article. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7184...

Books of the year! A round-up c/o @prospectmagazine.co.uk & @pghoskin.bsky.social www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7185...

Verian method statement that gives this poll specific standing Most polls in the online age are self-selecting panels of the (possibly atypical) types who enjoy giving their opinions Constraining self-selection might get you closer to a true random sample And they got v close in ‘24

There’s a lot to know about ‘slavery after slavery’ www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7184...

In Florida the forward march of child labour was halted this year But will capitalism let things rest there? www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7184...

The second most-read PQ journal article this year was: 'The Contradictions of the Albanese Labor Government in Australia: The Promise and Limits of Thin Labourism' Well done, Rob Manwaring and Emily Foley! Read it now for free: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

I am urgently looking for a first-time buyer to chat to me about the state of the mortgage market. What fun! Come on, get in touch - [email protected] Shares gratefully received

Florida nearly extended deregulation to 14-year-old workers in 2025. Will capitalism let things rest there? @tom-clark.bsky.social reviews two sweeping histories that make us fear for the future:

Whither capitalism? My review of sweeping new books by @svenbeckert.bsky.social & @johncassidysays.bsky.social www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7184...

One interesting nugget in this piece could explain the (otherwise baffling) appearance of Ramsay MacDonald in a 2024 Labour Party Election Broadcast

Whither capitalism? My review of sweeping new books by @svenbeckert.bsky.social & @johncassidysays.bsky.social www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7184...

Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA). What does the data tell us? ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.

Hats off to @arusbridger.bsky.social as his final issue of @prospectmagazine.co.uk goes off to press Under him, the mag had a far-sighted focus on the feedbacks between new media, culture & a darkening politics Witness this pair of covers waking readers up early to GB News & Reform

I’d naively expected the “deal” requiring the NHS to pay more to US drugs giants would become a scandal But Fleet Street has looked away. Except for Aditya Chakrabortty www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Just popping up on TalkTV discussing this mega report

We are hiring a Professor of Public Policy @bennettschool.cam.ac.uk www.cam.ac.uk/jobs/profess...

On this week's @prospectmagazine.co.uk we spoke with @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social and Terri White about the two-child limit >>>

This, from @piercepenniless.bsky.social, @dannyhinduk.bsky.social and @lewisgoodall.com is very good indeed.

Interesting thread, although if you wanted to put a cherry gloss on things you could say that it’s great that there will come a day when everybody can be a lord

Juries & political trials Only a jury could have cleared the topplers of slaver Edward Colston’s statue Further back, a jury brushed aside a judge’s direction & cleared Clive Ponting for exposing the Belgrano affair In future, protestors of Palestine Action ban? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-engl...

BREAKING: Richard Hughes quits as chair of the OBR after damaging budget leak obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...

Join and help to lead the Constitution Unit! @uclspp.bsky.social is looking for a Lecturer in British and Comparative Politics who will also join our senior team and contribute to our research and impact activities. Applicants must have, or be near to finishing, a PhD. Apply 👇

And all these judgments can be reached on the basis of published official tables. A Woodward & Bernstein expose is definitely not required!

I'm in the FT! Fun fact that didn't make the cut. Scrooge lived somewhere near Cornhill so we reckon will, post mansion tax, pay 0.2% of the value of his property from that and CT combined. Tiny Tim rents in Camden in a band D property so will pay 0.4%.

Full report — chapter & verse on everything (And cold light of day my colleagues’ title is less bad than the dreadful small-hours alternatives I was unsuccessfully punting: Prudence2030 or even Knocking On Headroom’s Door)

On the numbers, this was a “fiscally conservative budget” @ruthcurtice.bsky.social of @resolutionfoundation.org briskly punctures this week’s myths www.ft.com/content/f658...

An important point But also, perhaps, an important opening ... for gradually raising more revenue from expensive real estate (a huge proportion of Big Wealth) down the line As with the minimum wage, once the infrastructure is there, it is much easier to adjust it

Huge public service here -- more words than a PhD in evidence!! -- from the brain behind the furlough & many other Covid improvisations

Sub-contracting policy to focus groups last year led Labour to - promise beyond what was plausible on employment rights - promise less than was necessary on tax & spend Events have now forced it to strike a better balance But the politics of the recalibration are ghastly

In electoral terms, the Budget might be charged with being a “28% core strategy” The funny thing is, in today’s fractured landscape, that’s not as daft as it sounds www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/716...

1/ On reflection, one of the most striking things in the budget was that it didn’t cancel a c£5/wk increase in the basic rate of Universal Credit Originally this was put in to sweeten the large disability cuts, which then got a lot smaller Easy thing to cancel. So VG it wasn’t cancelled…

A “shockingly” left wing Budget My take on how a fracturing electoral landscape has led to the chancellor changing course www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/716...

A remarkably progressive picture But what makes it even more remarkable is the contrast some of the starkly regressive results we were finding at the time of the same chancellor’s spring statement

Was always VERY sceptical about this: dropping the idea of an income tax rise was a political, not an economic decision.

Excited that the thing that has only happened twice since 1970 is due to happen 3 years in a row!

Tone wise, triangulation suddenly seems rather 2022-24

The number of mouths a family had to feed had been connected to the support it received ever since the Elizabethan poor law — until George Osborne’s 2-child limit Now that broken link is to be fixed

New PIP claims are starting to decline

I am once again calling on our top national institutions to employ more of us with OCD to safeguard the publishing of sensitive documents

Saner than expected (Though weird to see the discredited RPI still being used for anything when other indicies are available)

Despite OBR efforts to scoop the think-tanks, plenty of extra insight available on this 🧵

If we’re abolishing jury trials to save money, I do hope some thought has been given to the (quite complex) task of figuring out whether more trials by magistrates/judges would produce more convictions If so, couldn’t the need more prison places could swallow the savings?

When can you declare an emergency over? The 5p “emergency” petrol tax cut was introduced in March 2022, to offset a spike in prices They are now about 30p down on that month, & about 50p down on the absolute peak

Saw this coming from a mile off Meanwhile, the BBC continues to beat itself up about whether it is ‘institutionally anti-Trump’

An unsparing assessment Presumably EU/UK can’t just pretend a little finessing & all will be well?

Even though I’m enjoying this, my main take-away is that a big part of their “greatness” was choosing the tip-top version to release originally. Almost none of the versions quite as good as the ones you already know.

Swingometer = deffo a bit dicky 2 by-elections, just 20 miles apart, both in traditionally Tory areas… totally different stories

I asked grok who was the better role model for humanity, Jesus Christ or Elon Musk. GUESS WHAT.