In the early hours of May 7, 1945, Germany surrendered to the allies, including Russia, 1,415 days after Hitler's troops invaded the Soviet Union. Putin's troops invaded Ukraine 1,415 days ago this morning. The "special military operation" has now lasted longer than the "great patriotic war".

My new year post argues that Labour’s leader must find the “wow” factor if he is not to resign, be removed or condemn Labour to certain defeat at the next election kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-o...

For my final Substack post of 2025 I look at the wholesale transfer of support from the main legacy parties (Lab + Con) to the surging insurgents (Reform + Green) - and their similarity to the tactics of ice cream vans kellnerp.substack.com/p/2025-the-y...

My latest Substack post analyses Britain’s continuing problems with productivity. Spoiler alert: they are not just the fault of the Tories. They go deeper than that. PS: Subscription to my posts is free. kellnerp.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...

Suddenly the talk at Westminster is of the government wanting a closer relationship with the European Union. What should we make of this? My latest Substack crunches the numbers. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-majori...

If Labour changes its leader, how can it win the next election? My post considers how the new prime minister could maximise their chances of success. kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...

Last month marked the centenary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth. In my latest Substack post, I argue that progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories kellnerp.substack.com/p/thatchers-...

A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister. My latest Substack post explains all. kellnerp.substack.com/p/revealed-t...

To become prime minister, Nigel Farage must defy history. My new post for Subnstack discusses his prospects kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-time-to-...

My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware

My new Substack reports fresh data that reveal the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice. kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...

Populists rely on voters overstating the scale of today's problems. Polls show that this is far too common in Britain - and around the world kellnerp.substack.com/p/ignorance-...

Keir Starmer are in worse troubl;e than they realise. My new "respect index" compares what is happening now with what happened after past change elctions. All my Substack posts are free. Read this one here. kellnerp.substack.com/p/historys-w...

We know the Tories are in terrible trouble. My latest post looks at its chances of survival, drawing on the lessons from history, and names two people who can help it see off Reform kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-the-to...

Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think. New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-and...

Corbyn and Sultana are looking for a name for their new party. Votey McVoteface?

Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end. This is the second post about tackling the problems with our voting system kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-kind-...

Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election. Nigel Farage could become prime minister even if Reform falls short of 30% support kellnerp.substack.com/p/reforms-wi...

Last year our voting system punished Nigel Farage. Last month it rewarded him. My latest Substack post argues that First Past The Post has served us well but now needs to go. kellnerp.substack.com/p/to-stop-re...

Thr war against big tobacco is not over. One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do. kellnerp.substack.com/p/fighting-b...

On June 5, 1967, Israel launched the Six Day war. One of the architects of its victory was a distant relative. I can now reveal his private warning before the war of the disaster facing his country if it ended up occupying Gaza and the West Bank. kellnerp.substack.com/p/defeat-the...

From winter fuel allowance and child benefit to immigration and Europe, Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. My Substack post argues that it is time to change their ways kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-pollster...

New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom. Here is my analysis for Substack kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-b...

Will the UK-EU summit on May 19 be a turning point in their relationship, or just a minor staging post where nothing big is achieved? My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org looks at what each side wants and where deals are possible. carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...

Some rare good news for Keir Starmer: there won't be a Tory-Reform pact, so the right-wing vote wil be divided agan at the next general election. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk crunches the numbers and sets out the reasons www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/699...

Labour risks learning the wrong lessons from last week's elections. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk gives three reasons to ignore the pro-Brexit lobby in their ranks www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...

Next week's local elections will be more important and more confusing than ever. My blog for Prospect discusses how to separate the signal from the noise www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...

The conditions that produced the old Labour-Tory duopoly have vanished. Despite last year's landslide, single-party governments are likely to be the exception from now on www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...

Churchill showed Starmer they. My latest Substack post argues that President Trump is causing big problems, and a big plan is needed to stop him. kellnerp.substack.com/p/churchill-...

As Rachel Reeves prepares for this week’s Spring Statement, my new Substack argues that she should heed the lessons from Harold Wilson and Clement Attlee, who were both punished for delaying the inevitable. kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...

As Keir Starmer prepares to head to Washington, here is what he needs to know aboui Trump's popularity - what the preisdent claims, and the very different truth. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-truth-...

Reform vies for first place in Britain’s polls. AfD is set to make big gains in Germany this month. Le Pen could be France’s next President. Mainstream parties need a different strategy to defeat populism. Here is my analysis kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-to-def...

A modest suggestioin for Dionald Trump. Find a new home for the people of Gaza, where the climate is similar, the infrstructure already there, and lots of space. The solution is surely obvious: Texas.

Mainstream parties are in big trouble, and not just in Britain. I have been working with the Tony Blair Institute on a report that argues for a radical change in their strategy: disruption, not continuity. Results from a six-country survey makes clear what they need to do. bit.ly/3X3c9Yz.

Parties and their voters are not the same. My latest Substack post continues my debate with Neal Lawson of Compass about whether Britain’s electorate has a near-permanent progressive majority. kellnerp.substack.com/p/parties-an...

Voters are not as progressive as the Left claims. My latest Substack post looks at a test case – with exclusive new evidence of questions I commissioned from Deltapoll. They tell a different story from that told by the left-leaning campaign group, Compass. kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...

Is our two-party system on the way out? The past century has been punctuated by predictions that it would collapse. It hasn't. My new year Substack post discusses whether it now faces a more potent challenge than in the past. kellnerp.substack.com/p/is-our-two...

Elon Musk is talking to Nigel Farage about how to help Reform. Could Farage become Prime Minister? Unlikely but not impossible. Here is what it would take. kellnerp.substack.com/p/memo-to-ni...

Twas the night(mare) before Christmas... Suppose Farage asked one of his team at Reform to set out a strategy for victory. This Substack post is my stab at the advice they could give him. kellnerp.substack.com/p/memo-to-ni...

Forget 'Yes we can'. Now it's 'No we can't'. Politics is changing round the world - including Britain. My blog for @Prospect_uk has some bad news for Keir Starmer www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/views/column...

@kimleadbeater won a famous victory on Friday with her #AssistedDyingBill. Good. But religious objections were barely mentioned: not so good. Read my Substack post here (and, if you wish, sign up to future posts free of charge) kellnerp.substack.com/p/kim-leadbe...

Exposed: the myth about Labour's Red Wall triumph. Ministers' have ruledout an EU deal that restores frictionless trade flows from belief that their more limited policy won back votes in the Red Wall. My latest post for Substack challenges this belief. kellnerp.substack.com/p/exposed-th...

Exposed: the myth about Labour's Red Wall triumph. Ministers' have ruled out an EU deal that restores frictionless trade.They think their more limited policy won back votes in the Red Wall. My latest Substack post challenges this belief. (Subscribe for free) kellnerp.substack.com/exposed-the-...

Two cheers for America's pollsters, but none for @jaselzer or @natesilver538.bsky.social . What went right last week, what went wrong, and why. My analysis for @prospectmagazine.bsky.social . All my blogs are available on kellnerp.substack.com From prospectmagazine.co.uk

If Mike Amesbury leaves Parliament, there will be a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby. Reform came second in July. This would be a contest that neither Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch would want.

With more than four hours to go, more people have voted in Georgia than in 2020. Michigan also heading for record turnout

CNN are reporting that the exit polls, which has been following early voters, find a big shift to Harris among Latinos, following the Puerto Rico “trash” insult just over a week ago

A shock poll in Iowa suggests a clear winfor Kamala Harris in the electoral college . All the other polls says it's too close to call. @prospectmagazine.bsky.social has my analysis www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/united...

The big question is the same for all Budgets: What can possibly go wrong? My Substack post sets out the Risk Register that Rachel Reeves is likely to need. kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-can-p...

A popular magazine has some great ideas for rescuing Labour from its current malaise. It was published 84 yeras ago. Here is what it said, and its lessons for Keir Star5mer and Rachel Reeves kellnerp.substack.com/p/let-us-fac...