Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails by Ben Chu – Why the benefits of global trade are at risk

The latest average monthly wage data means the UK state pension will rise by at least 4.7% next year under the Triple Lock. The lock is supposed to protect and boost the real income of pensioners. But it’s worth noting that pensioners - as a group - are not as poor as they used to be...🧵 1/11

The latest average monthly wage data means the UK state pension will rise by at least 4.7% next year under the Triple Lock. The lock is supposed to protect and boost the real income of pensioners. But it’s worth noting that pensioners - as a group - are not as poor as they used to be...🧵 1/11

"This work will help the reader better understand why the global economy stands at such a critical juncture – how we got here and what is at risk." Review of my book Exile Economics by Irish Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe in The Irish Times 👇 www.irishtimes.com/culture/book...

Has Israel's war in Gaza been proportionate? Comprehensive analysis of this question by Verify colleagues 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Do Reform's economic/financial plans add up? Claims on: - the costs of net zero - taxes - spending - cutting waste My analysis for BBC website 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Reform UK is seeking to maintain the momentum it has gathered since the general election. BBC Verify has examined what we know - and don't know - about the party’s aspirations when it comes to taxation, spending and borrowing. Reporting by @benchu.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Do Reform's economic/financial plans add up? Claims on: - the costs of net zero - taxes - spending - cutting waste My analysis for BBC website 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

The Home Secretary is focusing today on students who go on to claim asylum. Home Office data shows the numbers of asylum seekers who were previously issued with a student visa are up in recent years, to 14,800 in the year to June, though some signs of a peak...

How many illegal immigrants are living in the UK? Are they put up in ‘four star hotels’? Are phones and iPads provided? Following comments made by Rylan Clark, BBC Verify Policy Correspondent Ben Chu goes through the data and information for #Newsnight

Back in the Newsnight studio with Paddy O’Connell to talk about immigration - perceptions and fact Join us at 1030pm on BBC2 and iPlayer

President Trump has suggested this week that wind power is the reason for rising energy bills in the UK. What does the evidence say? My explainer 👇... www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

Some context for the headlines about rising plastic bag use in England - yes there was a rise in the most recent data for 2024-25, but it's still below 2021-22 levels and *far* fewer bags are sold than a decade ago...

On The World This Weekend today: the costs & benefits of offshore wind. 💨💸🔌 The government says wind will bring household electricity bills down. 📉 Reform & Tories say it will push them up. 📈 We’ll be talking to energy experts to find out where the truth lies. 1pm on Radio 4 and BBC Sounds 📻

Listen to my conversation with the marvellous Stephanie Flanders from @bloomberg.com on the themes of my new book “Exile Economics: What Happens If Globalisation Fails” 🎧👇 pca.st/episode/9a17...

"When the BBC approached councils, the info we were provided about the condition and reason for homes being empty covered only around 13% of their [long-term empty housing] stock." Remarkable stat from my colleague Gerry Georgieva's empty homes investigation... www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Listen to my conversation with the marvellous Stephanie Flanders from @bloomberg.com on the themes of my new book “Exile Economics: What Happens If Globalisation Fails” 🎧👇 pca.st/episode/9a17...

Does the UK still have the fastest growth rate in the G7 after today's Q2 2025 data? Not on a quarter-on-quarter basis - the US grew faster in Q2. But if you annualise growth rates over Q1 and Q2 the answer is possibly (2% vs 1.2% in the US). Note: we don't yet have data from Japan for Q2...

What's driven 50,000 small boat crossings under Labour? My Sounds explainer 🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

The Conservatives have accused the government of a "cover up" of the true costs of the Chagos deal with Mauritius, and of using an "accounting trick". Here's some context 👇

How much is the Chagos deal *really* going to cost the UK? £3.4bn or £35bn? 💵 This is a complex one - but worth unpacking. Longish thread..🧵1/22

How much is the Chagos deal *really* going to cost the UK? £3.4bn or £35bn? 💵 This is a complex one - but worth unpacking. Longish thread..🧵1/22

On The World This Weekend at 1pm on Radio 4 we're taking a deep dive into the broken Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) system in England. The Government has promised a White Paper in the Autumn to fix it. But what should be in it? Join us at 1pm on Radio 4 & BBC Sounds 📻 🎧

By me for @financialtimes.com on dealing with uncertainty and (sudden) shocks. Contains some wise words from the BBC's @benchu.bsky.social , author of "Exile Economics". And yes I also used the Mike Tyson quote because really why not? www.ft.com/content/4b71...

How Toyota, pioneer of "just-in-time" supply chains, pivoted to "just-in-case" after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake - & the lessons for those today concerned about vulnerabilities. Great to see Exile Economics quoted by @stefanstern.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com today 👇 www.ft.com/content/4b71...

"What Ben Chu sets out so effectively in Exile Economics is the way complex global supply chains & swirling patterns of supply and demand make the biff-bang of tariff wars so damaging" An essay review of my new book by Ferdinand Mount in the London Review of Books 👇 www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...

How Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine have increased since Donald Trump returned to the White House. Data collected by the my BBC Verify colleagues...: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I'm presenting The World This Weekend today. We're dedicating the programme to Ukraine. - Will Putin heed the US ultimatum to deliver a ceasefire by Friday? - Will Trump follow through with new sanctions if Putin doesn't? - What do Ukrainians think? Join us at 1pm on Radio 4/BBC Sounds 📻

Here's the latest Trump tariff rates by country plotted against the biggest sources of US goods imports - the bigger the circle, the more the US imports from that country 👇

Really great bit "scrolly" story telling here from BBC colleagues and the Verify data team on the declining length of hit pop songs 👇... www.bbc.co.uk/news/resourc...

As Trump's 1 August tariff deadline approaches, here are five ways Trump's trade war is affecting the US and global economy. 1) A surge in tariff revenue for the US government...

Not just because I'm quoted, but this from @benchu.bsky.social is a good explanation of why the UK-US deal may not be better than the EU-US one... www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

How does the EU agreement with the US compare with the UK's - and are there potential economic benefits now arising for the UK? The lack of clarity on the EU agreement means the answers are not clear cut My analysis 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Here's the IMF's latest estimate of the cost of Trump's trade war on the UK economy. 👇 -0.3% lower GDP by 2026 Using the OBR 2025-26 forecast for UK GDP of £2.9 trillion, that works out as roughly £9bn in lower national output than otherwise www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...

For those who understand French - my interview with L’Express on my new book Exile Economics 👇

My BBC Verify explainer 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

My new book Exile Economics has been reviewed by @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social "A really interesting read, enlivened by the author’s reporting and a lovely writing style." www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog/index.p...

Keir Starmer tells the Commons liason committee "the fiscal headroom we put in at the [October 2024] Budget was considerably more than the last government put in their last budget, by some measure." That's incorrect...

Powerful visual investigation by my Verify colleagues 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/resourc...

Should add that most economists think payroll data is still giving a better steer than the Labour Force Survey when it comes to the current direction of the jobs market

What's happened to UK jobs since the 2024 general election? Short answer: we don't really know. If you use the latest HMRC/ONS payroll data it's declined by around 178k If you use the latest ONS Labour Force Survey it's risen by 541k...

I spoke to the Intelligence Squared podcast about my book "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails" Listen here 🎧👇 podmust.com/ep/?podcast=...

Listen to my conversation this week with @richarddavies.bsky.social at the London School of Economics about my new book Exile Economics 👇🎧 www.lse.ac.uk/lse-player?i...

Is the UK's informal labour market really a major "pull factor" for asylum seekers to come here? An explainer from me 👇

Donald Trump has sent letters to Japan and South Korea saying they're both getting 25% tariffs because of their "very persistent" trade deficits with the US. Here's their bilateral deficits with the US in goods...

Spoke to Late Night Live on Australia's ABC Radio National about the incredibly persistent allure of autarky (self-sufficiency) through human history, one of the themes of my new book Exile Economics. Listen to my conversation with David Marr here 🎧👇... www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

What will the Trump/Republican One Big Beautiful Bill Act do to the US national debt? Video explainer from me 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

What will the Trump/Republican One Big Beautiful Bill Act do to the US national debt? Video explainer from me 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

NEW INTERVIEW ✨ We spoke to @benchu.bsky.social about his book, Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails @hachetteuk.bsky.social @johnmurrays.bsky.social He argues that the interdependence of global trade is more complex to unpick than protectionist rhetoric would have us believe.

Have spent insufficient time on gilt mkt today. Very quick thoughts. 1. Sell-off at the long-end properly nasty. Non-bond-types wondering whether to trust reports of 'bond mkt rout'? Rout is fair. PMQs look central to this.