How much will the watering down of the government's farming inheritance tax changes cost? When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...

A short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published. We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.

Thanks to Simon Hunt of City AM for choosing Exile Economics as one of his top 6 business books of 2025... 👇 www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...

Many thanks @davidheniguk.bsky.social! This was a great event & introduced me to a lot of valuable new contacts

BBC Radio 4 / @benchu.bsky.social recently did a good series (3 episodes, called the Tax Conundrum) exploring, inter alia, precisely this disjuncture between how the UK's tax system actually works (income taxation has gotten much more progressive) and how most Brits think it works

Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget? I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white. A thread…🧵1/12

People who heard the 8.10am Radio 4 Today interview with Dr Tom Dolphin of the BMA this morning might be interested in this explainer: 📺 👇 What's happened to resident doctors' pay since 2008? www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

Very sad news. Andreas Whittam Smith was a very great man - and in my encounters with him while I worked for many years at The Independent an exceptionally nice one too. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home...

In short, the answer to whether the government can fairly be said to have misled or not on the state of the public finances depends alot on which element of its communications we're talking about 👇

Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget? I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white. A thread…🧵1/12

Thanks to @grattaninstitute.bsky.social for choosing Exile Economics as a recommendation for the Australian PM's summer reading list!

2/ @benchu.bsky.social Exile Economics paints a picture of a world retreating from the global economic system. But cutting ourselves off from these trade and migration flows isn’t just economically damaging – in many cases it’s simply not possible.

1/ Announcing Grattan’s Prime Minister’s Summer Reading List for 2025! 🎉 Here are the six books we think the PM and all Australians should read over summer. #auspol buff.ly/UbafIPQ

OBR: "We have not changed our assessment that Brexit will reduce the level of UK productivity by around 4 per cent after 15 years." obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...

The latest tax increases are very backloaded in the forecast - according to the OBR projected borrowing is up in every year to 2028-29 relative to the March 2025 Spring statement - only falls in 2029-30

Little movement (so far) in UK government market borrowing costs in response to the Budget - couple of basis points +/- across the yield curve. Looks like markets expected new headroom vs fiscal rules of around £22bn... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...

Key takeaways on Chancellor's policy choices from the accidentally published OBR doc. - Now £22bn of headroom in 2029-30 (up from £9.9bn) - £26bn in tax rises in 2029-30 (including extension income tax threshold freeze, NICS on salary sacrifice pensions) obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...

My Budget preview available on BBC iPlayer here. - Has the Chancellor already hit "working people" with tax rises? - Is Brexit really to blame for the expected increase in borrowing the forecasts? - Is it in the interests of young people to put up taxes? 📺👇 www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...

The national debt, benefits, housing, taxation... How should we think about this week's Budget choices in the context of fairness between the UK's generations? My analysis for BBC online ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Many thanks to @vickyspratt.bsky.social for this lovely recommendation of my series "The Tax Conundrum" on BBC Sounds... inews.co.uk/opinion/22k-...

"We have become the destination of choice in Europe" according to the Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Data from Eurostat & the Home Office shows the UK had the fifth largest number of claims of the EU/UK area in 2025, at 108,000... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691ae0...

Made this explainer back in July - relevant again today 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

If you're wondering HOW and WHY the government has got itself in such a mess on tax ahead of this latest Budget - take a listen to my new 3 part series on the UK's Tax Conundrum on Sounds... 🎧👇

UK 10 year Gilt yield is now up around 8 basis points today (0.08%) & the 30 yield yield is up 10 basis points (0.1%). Both down a bit from the market open - but still a material increase in UK gov borrowing costs in response to the income tax rise flip-flop... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...

Very useful chart from Berenberg - the blue bars are the tariffs that could be removed if the US Supreme Court strikes down Trump's emergency tariffs (though the White House could well respond by using other tariff legislation to try to re-impose them)

Feels relevant again this morning 👇

UK supermarkets have doubled their profit margins on fuel sales since 2017, according to data from the Competition and Markets Authority... www.gov.uk/government/n...

Interesting that Rachel Reeves in her economy speech referenced public sector net debt when she said it's at £2.9 trillion/95% of GDP - her fiscal rules are targetting a different (lower) measure of the national debt called "public sector net financial liabilities".... www.gov.uk/government/s...

We're told that downgrades to official productivity growth forecasts spell tax rises in the forthcoming Budget. But why? My BBC online explainer 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Lots of talk about new tax rises this morning in the wake of Rachel Reeves’ speech If you want a fresh, stand back, Radio 4 series on this subject 👇

ICYMI You can listen to the third and final part of my Radio 4 series on the UK's Tax Conundrum here 🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Listen now on Radio 4 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Coming up on BBC Radio 4 and on BBC Sounds at 11am - the third and final episode of The Tax Conundrum. Do we - in the end - get the tax system we deserve? Or is a better way possible? Listen here 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

Scott Bessent says China has pledged to buy 12m tonnes of US soybeans this year and a minimum of 25m tonnes a year for the next 3 years. Are those big numbers?... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The latest Index of Multiple Deprivation for England has been released today. My Verify colleagues have built this handy online tool to enable you to look up where your area ranks 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Bet you never thought that a discussion about whether marshmallows are eaten with fingers would form part of what is the start of an interesting @benchu.bsky.social Radio 4 series “The Tax Conundrum”…but that’s what you get in Episode 1 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Nice review of my Radio 4 series The Tax Conundrum in The Times "I became hypnotised by the ins and outs of the tax status of marshmallows" writes @j-amesmarriott.bsky.social... 👇 www.thetimes.com/culture/tv-r...

Waiting to go on Newsnight to talk about what the Trump/Xi summit means for global trade! @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social BBC2 /iPlayer now

Listen to IFS Director @helenmiller.bsky.social on the 'Tax Conundrum', a three-part series from @benchu.bsky.social on why the UK tax system has become such a mess and what difference that makes: ⬇️

In case you missed Episode 2 of The Tax Conundrum on Radio 4 - where I explore what the UK could learn from other countries' tax systems - you can listen back here on BBC Sounds... 🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

In case you missed Episode 2 of The Tax Conundrum on Radio 4 - where I explore what the UK could learn from other countries' tax systems - you can listen back here on BBC Sounds... 🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

On now on BBC Radio 4 and BBC Sounds - part 2 of The Tax Conundrum 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Coming up very shortly on Radio 4 - part 2 of my 3 part series on the UK tax system - The Tax Conundrum! Part 2 looks at what the UK could learn from abroad when it comes to tax. On Radio 4 and BBC Sounds at 11am 📻 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

About to speak to Paddy O’Connell on Broadcasting House on BBC Radio 4 about how much asylum seekers receive in UK state support - and how that compares to other EU countries’ systems #BroadcastingHouse

I doubt if any tax theory has age as a criterion. Surely the key word is "well-off" whether pensioners or not. And just in case anyone thinks tax is simple, @benchu.bsky.social has a 3-part series on why it isn't. Judging by Part 1, highly recommended. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/serie...

Why do we seem to find it so hard to have a rational conversation about how MUCH we pay in tax and HOW we pay it? I'm exploring that in a new 3 part series for BBC Radio 4. Episode 1 of The Tax Conundrum available here 🎧👇... www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Starting now on BBC Radio 4 👇

Pleased to see "The Tax Conundrum" is radio pick of the day in the i paper and the Daily Mail 👇

Today at 11am "The Tax Conundrum" starts on Radio 4 and BBC Sounds Ahead of what will be another tax raising budget I ask in this new 3 part series why we seem to find it so hard to have a rational conversation about how MUCH we pay in tax and HOW we pay it... 📻🎧 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

Tomorrow "The Tax Conundrum" starts on Radio 4 and BBC Sounds Ahead of what will be another tax raising budget on 26 November I ask in this 3 part series why we seem to find it so hard to have a rational conversation about how MUCH we pay in tax and HOW we pay it... www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...