Pretty painful session for European stocks on first day of trading since the US-Israel war with Iran - German index down 2.24% and France just under 2%... uk.finance.yahoo.com

UK Gilt yields now up 10-17 basis points today at the 2-10 year end of the curve, due to the US-Israel war with Iran... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...

Impact of sustained 10% global oil price spike was estimated by the International Monetary Fund in 2023 +0.4pp to global inflation -0.15pp off global growth mediacenter.imf.org/news/imf-wor...

Some UK financial markets morning reaction to the Iran-US-Israel conflict. Brent crude oil price up around 10% to $80 per barrel... uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EFTMC/

Some context for this debate: bsky.app/profile/benc...

The Conservatives have today said they would scrap the real interest rate charged on Plan 2 student loans saving graduates "tens of thousands of pounds". But *which* graduates would financially benefit?... www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... 1/5

On 18 Feb Trump boasted on Truth Social (left) that the US trade deficit had fallen by 78% under him. On 22 Feb Trump's official proclamation justifying the new 15% global tariff (right) said the trade deficit had not budged in 2025... www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Here's the Yale Budget Lab's estimate of where the White House's (temporary) 15% global tariff leaves the US effective tariff rate on goods import. Brings it back up from 9.1% (absent the IEEPA emergency tariffs) to 13.7%... budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...

The Conservatives have today said they would scrap the real interest rate charged on Plan 2 student loans saving graduates "tens of thousands of pounds". But *which* graduates would financially benefit?... www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... 1/5

Update: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/21/b...

From a UK perspective, Trump's new 10% global Section 122 tariff is the same as the 10% IEEPA tariff on the UK which now falls away. So on the face of it there's no change for UK firms. BUT the Section 122 tariff is only for 150 days - so what comes after? Means more uncertainty for UK exporters

In response to the Supreme Court's decision to strike down his IEEPA "emergency" tariffs, Donald Trump has announced a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows tariffs in response to balance of payment problems.... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

NB Oxford Economics have today put out an updated breakdown of the US tariff rates by trading partner including and excluding the IEEPA tariffs - so you can see who are the big (initial) winners from this Supreme Court ruling 👇

What does the decision by the US Supreme Court to strike down Trump's emergency IEEPA tariffs mean for his trade policy - and for the rest of the world? www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0... 🧵...1/13

UK inflation rate had been diverging from the US and EU in 2025 - but signs in more recent months of the gap reducing...

Getting ready to talk about the youth unemployment figures on Newsnight Tune in at 1030pm on BBC2…

Here's the UK age 16-24 unemployment rate compared to the European Union's unemployment rate (which is under age 25). The UK's latest reading of 16.1% is now higher than the EU's most recent reading of 14.7% for the first time on record...

The UK age 18-24 unemployment rate has been rising since 2022 and hit a concerning 14% in December 2025 Though it's worth bearing in mind that in 2011 the rate was more than 20%...

Nigel Farage has been making the incorrect claim that "one million people living in this country don't speak any English at all" Facts here 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1...

Fact check from me on BBC Sounds on Sir Jim Ratcliffe's claims on - population - immigration - benefits - energy 📻👇... www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

When were the contacts between Mandelson and Epstein - and when did Keir Starmer know about them? My Verify analysis about what the documents show us about the timeline 📺 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cg...

BBC Verify is trying to show the world (a) how we know what we know, and (b) how you can do it, too. Always needs a team. Here's a crash course, using examples from @shayan86.bsky.social, @paulybrown.bsky.social, @emmapengelly.bsky.social, @sryder.bsky.social and @danict89.bsky.social.

Reposting to share we've posted the video on YouTube (should you wish to go to a separate social media platform to see it): www.youtube.com/shorts/nodpN...

Bad Influence is a brilliant new book by @debscohen.bsky.social - I’m learning so much about the impact of the internet on people’s perceptions of their health - disturbing and eye opening

Weekend plug for my new personal post: Why does regulation often feel so toothless? Sometimes regulators are just useless, but more often the problem is that governments don’t give them the tools or the powers to deter bad behaviour

Regarding the debate over whether the English student loan system is "progressive" or "regressive" it's worth noting IFS calculations suggest over the lifetime of existing graduates (on Plan 2 loans), the highest earners will pay more than those in the middle & much more than the lowest earners...

Some tentative signs of a pick-up in new home delivery in England from the latest official data (based on Energy Performance Certificates lodged in the second half of 2025) Though still some way short of the delivery rate needed to hit the 1.5 million target for the Parliament...

Very excited to be part of launching Verify on Tour! This nationwide outreach initiative is designed to help young people develop essential skills and knowledge to navigate the world of digital media. We deliver events both in-person and virtually for schools, colleges, and sixth forms.

Some context for the Yvette Cooper interview on Radio 4 Today this morning 👇

Does EU and US trade account for a third of global trade? I’ve seen this claim made a couple of times and I snagged on it because it sounds high. Having looked into it, I think that statement is potentially misleading. Thread...1/

Likely source of Trump's claim the UK is producing a third of the total energy as it was in 1999: UK energy stats "Availability and consumption of primary fuels and equivalents" - 94k thousand tonnes of oil equivalent in 2024 vs 297k in 1999 (-70%)... www.gov.uk/government/s...

Trump tells Davos "China makes almost all of the windmills and yet I haven't been able to find any windfarms in China" IRENASTAT data shows China had 479GW of onshore wind capacity in 2024 & 41GW of offshore wind capacity pxweb.irena.org/pxweb/en/IRE...

DonaldTrump tells Davos the US gas price is "now below $2.50 in many states, $2.30 in most states" The latest data from the US EIA shows the US average was $2.779 on 12 Jan 2026: www.eia.gov/petroleum/ga...

Does EU and US trade account for a third of global trade? I’ve seen this claim made a couple of times and I snagged on it because it sounds high. Having looked into it, I think that statement is potentially misleading. Thread...1/

This section from Mark Carney's speech in Davos sums up perfectly the global trend I describe in my book Exile Economics: What Happens If Globalisation Fails... paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...

Will the Chagos deal cost the UK £3.4bn or £35bn? My analysis on the BBC website...👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...

The UK-Mauritius deal over the Chagos islands is in the news again. The focus is on its geopolitical/security merits - but here's some analysis on the costs of the deal we did last year 👇

Also @benchu.bsky.social very presciently wrote a whole book, Exile Economics, on this topic… www.goodreads.com/book/show/22...

Will more offshore windpower drive up household energy bills? Watch my analysis here 📺👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz...

Many thanks to the Next Big Idea Club team for selecting my book, Exile Economics, as one of its monthly must-reads. You can listen to me reading 5 key insights from the book here 🎧👇 nextbigideaclub.com/magazine/sho...

Regarding Trump's 25% US tariff on any country "doing business with Iran" - here's Iran's top 10 export trading partners in 2023...

Regarding the debate on BBC Politics Live just now about the government's jobs market record, according to the Office for National Statistics' Labour Force Survey it's the case that both unemployment AND employment have recorded as having risen since Labour took office...

How much will the watering down of the government's farming inheritance tax changes cost? When it unveiled the original reforms in the 2024 Budget, HMT estimated they would raise £230m in 2026/27, rising to £520m in 2029/30... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672b98...

A short seven years (!) after I started writing the code, it’s great to see this paper published. We use high-frequency NHS to data show that short-staffed, less experienced nursing teams deliver worse outcomes – with the largest mortality impacts for patients with sepsis.

Thanks to Simon Hunt of City AM for choosing Exile Economics as one of his top 6 business books of 2025... 👇 www.cityam.com/six-of-the-t...

Many thanks @davidheniguk.bsky.social! This was a great event & introduced me to a lot of valuable new contacts

BBC Radio 4 / @benchu.bsky.social recently did a good series (3 episodes, called the Tax Conundrum) exploring, inter alia, precisely this disjuncture between how the UK's tax system actually works (income taxation has gotten much more progressive) and how most Brits think it works

Did Rachel Reeves and the Government “mislead” people about the state of the public finances and the need for tax rises before the Budget? I think this is a rather complex question & the answer is not black and white. A thread…🧵1/12

People who heard the 8.10am Radio 4 Today interview with Dr Tom Dolphin of the BMA this morning might be interested in this explainer: 📺 👇 What's happened to resident doctors' pay since 2008? www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...

Very sad news. Andreas Whittam Smith was a very great man - and in my encounters with him while I worked for many years at The Independent an exceptionally nice one too. www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home...