Over the past year, American economic policy has been chaotic and self-destructive (think: tariffs, migration shutdown). Yet growth has been... fine. What gives? The answer, I argue in @economist.com, is that America could be doing even better. www.economist.com/leaders/202...

America could have had a gangbusters 2025... were it not for a frenzy of bad policymaking. Careful work by my colleague Alex Domash recovering the "MAGA tax" on America's economy. He puts it at 0.7-0.8% of 2025 GDP growth. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

A PRODUCTIVITY MIRACLE? Rich-world productivity growth was pronounced dead in the 2010s (or at least sleeping). But in America it has been decisively revived, I write in this week's @economist.com. Elsewhere in the world, rather less so. Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...

Something of a Fed extravaganza in @economist.com this week. To start, my leader: "How Kevin Warsh could save the Federal Reserve". Warsh wasn't our chair pick. But one version of him may be just the man for this moment of political crisis for the Fed. www.economist.com/leaders/202...

Lot of commentators are very miffed that global trade has resolutely failed to collapse several times in recent years. Governments even more so, not least the one in the US. A world they clearly don't understand if they think economies past were more resilient.

My leader in this week's Economist, arguing that America's moment of bipartisan tax-cutting mania is an error: — Economically, it worsens the looming fiscal crunch — Politically, pulling voters out of the tax base kills incentives to care about good government www.economist.com/leaders/2026...

Reminds me of when, in December 2022, we polled on what the Government had done well since being elected. At the time it was spending c. £10 billion a month subsidising everyone's energy bills, and yet:

Have been waiting almost two years for the right article to smuggle this fact into. (From my leader on America's misguided war on taxes: economist.com/leaders/2026...)

AMERICA'S TAX REVOLT Republicans and Democrats alike seem to be ditching the idea that most Americans ought to be paying very much in taxes at all. Increasingly, voters seem to agree. For Tax Day, I wrote about this troubling development for @economist.com. www.economist.com/united-stat...

THE CRUELLEST YEAR Twelve months after "Liberation Day", I wrote for @economist.com on American manufacturers—supposedly the trade war's winners. Even they are sceptical: chaos, instability and paperwork have swamped the tariffs' competitiveness boost. www.economist.com/united-stat...

UNITED PETROSTATES I look at how the oil shock will hit the US economy in @economist.com today—one that now exports 2/3 as much energy as Saudi Arabia. Growth will still sag, and the poorest get squeezed. But America is well-positioned to weather the hit www.economist.com/finance-and...

NOT SO "K" America's "K-shaped" economy has become conventional wisdom—the idea that spending is booming for the rich and slumping for the rest, leaving growth top-heavy and precarious. Only one problem: as I write in @economist.com, it is probably wrong. 🔗: www.economist.com/finance-and...

First, AI kills the lawyers. Thoughtful, analytical and depressing piece from @archiehall.bsky.social. notes.archie-hall.com/p/britains-a...

BRITAIN'S AI BEAR CASE What happens, if AI takes off, to an economy that is... ... highly dependent on exporting professional services? ... Too energy-scarce to build many data centres? ... Less dynamic than ever? I work through those questions here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/britains-...

Now updated: an analysis of SCOTUS's decision blocking Trump's "emergency" tariffs, Trump's condemnation of the ruling and what comes next—from @archiehall.bsky.social and me www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Quick take on the tariffs news, from me and @stevenmazie.bsky.social: www.economist.com/finance-and-...

The impact of Trump's attacks on the IRS, in two charts. From my latest for @economist.com. www.economist.com/finance-and...

PEAK TARIFFS? As tariff rates surged in 2025, so did tariff revenues. But since the middle of last year, they have pretty much flatlined. Has America's tariff take peaked? I play with that idea for @economist.com this week. A few possible drivers there in a 🧵 below www.economist.com/finance-and-...

WHAT IS WARSHONOMICS? Kevin Warsh's dovish pivot since Donald Trump won in 2024 is staggering. Over a 20+ year career, he has pretty much always been a hawk: until now. But on his real hobbyhorse, unwinding QE, Warsh remains remarkably consistent. My column: www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Some reflections on Kevin Warsh as a prose stylist, from me in this week's "Money Talks" newsletter for @economist.com www.economist.com/newsletters/...

Can a hawk change its feathers? A few thoughts on Kevin Warsh-- www.economist.com/finance-and-...

AMERICA'S ABSENT BOND VIGILANTES Here's a remarkable fact: since last year, America's bond market has comfortably beaten all of its peers. Soaring deficits, attacks on the Fed, trade wars and Greenlandic aggression — all shrugged off. I look at why: www.economist.com/finance-and-...

“There are some pretty scary hypotheticals you can get to.” @archiehall.bsky.social talks to “The Intelligence” about where Donald Trump’s pressure on the Fed may lead

The key historical context to this week's Fed madness. And a quick piece from me on how this turned out to be a surprisingly good week for central bank independence: www.economist.com/finance-and-...

One respect in which Britain is not European

A quick take from me on tonight's bizarre -- and dangerous -- spat between the Fed and White House www.economist.com/finance-and-...

AMERICA'S MISSING MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse. I explore this in my latest for @economist.com. Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...

"AFFORDABILITY ANGST" I wrote this week's @economist.com cover story, on affordability in America Politically, "affordability" is a potent slogan. But on the economics, the issue is mostly a mirage—real wages have risen handsomely. That mismatch spells trouble Thread and link ⬇️

Pretty vast education splits in AI adoption-- especially at work. Via Brookings: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...

How doomed is America's jobs market? I took a look for this week's @economist.com. Certainly, there are some signs of weakness. But the labour market has been cooling gradually for several years now. What we've seen recently looks like a continuation, not a cliff. www.economist.com/finance-and...

Farewell to the K. A brief but memorable tenure in the discourse.

Robotaxis will tranform cities more than we yet realise: my latest for @economist.com — The tech will get cheaper. Dire traffic jams unless cities learn to love congestion taxes — Denser city centres (few parking lots), but also more sprawl — Cycling gets safer www.economist.com/finance-and...

A slightly more considered, day-two take on the Budget from me—ruminating on the politics of it and rounding up some of the interesting bits I missed yesterday. notes.archie-hall.com/p/a-few-nex...

Today, I think, there were actually two budgets: a spending-and borrowing heavy one for the next few years, and a more tax-heavy one for the very end of parliament. The government will naturally talk up the first to its backbenchers, and the second to markets. notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...

A thread with a few Budget thoughts. More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t... 1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.

My quick verdict on the Budget, now up. "Fifteen thoughts on the Budget" open.substack.com/pub/archieh...

Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications 1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..! 2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet www.nber.org/papers/w34459

Great piece: www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-the-de...

From an Economist leader in August 2000

As the shutdown grinds to an end, I took stock for @economist.com on how well private-sector data has done guiding America through the past few months' data drought. www.economist.com/finance-and...

A quick take from me ahead of tomorrow’s Supreme Court arguments on IEEPA tariffs — There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall — But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem economist.com/finance-and...

Farage's jettisoning of the 2024 manifesto in favour of what promises to be a much more fiscally-conservative approach is a significant moment. My colleague @archiehall.bsky.social ran the rule over the policybook as late as May. It wasn't pretty. www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Here's something I don't have a good explanation for— British households' long-run inflation expectations are pretty severely de-anchored, but markets are totally relaxed.

Have data centres raised power bills? Not really, our analysis @economist.com finds—at least so far. Adding data centres to a state-level model of electricity prices shows no significant effect But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...

For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025. My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America Link: www.economist.com/finance-and... 🧵 below

Pretty crazy how the economic weakness of H1 2025 has just been... revised away

I wonder who...

Goes nicely with a slice of @spignal.bsky.social 's column about Europe's increasingly pungent lack of urgency www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

A dose of everything-is-fine-ism from me in @economist.com. Amid worries about a slowdown in America —The latest data isn't awful (even payrolls), and seems to have stopped getting worse —That leaves America with more than enough growth to keep Europeans jealous www.economist.com/finance-and...

Charts with the same energy: longue duree Lib Dem polling and the VIX