Most interesting bit of the UK public finances data today: Fuel duty revenues dropped in March to their lowest since July 2023. Strongly suggests people were buying less petrol petrol last month.

Is it time to cut the cord? Our latest substack from Jonathan Marshall and Matthew Cavanagh considers the Government's plans to 'de-link' gas and electricity prices ⤵️ buff.ly/4s3sowS

🚨 New Substack The Government's plans to de-link gas and electricity prices represent an important step forwards, but as it stands the tax incentive needed to drive change may be too weak. Read more 👉 buff.ly/4s3sowS

The Government has made important progress in its plan to ‘de-link’ gas and electricity prices, but needs to beef up its tax threat if it wants to make good on them The @resolutionfoundation.org take on a big but underpowered announcement: resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/cutting-th...

Good to see removing the Carbon Price Support form part of this. Something @resolutionfoundation.org suggested way back in 2023

We're hosting events in April to unpack the effects of war in the Middle East on the UK economy. The first will focus on the coming cost of living crunch, with Jeremy Hunt MP, @kellyipsosuk.bsky.social @dharavyas.bsky.social @jonnymarshall.bsky.social @ruthcurtice.bsky.social ⤵️ buff.ly/srukFo5

England's first Land Use Framework is finally here. It's been a long time coming and there's a lot to welcome. But when it comes do decarbonising land it leaves lots of the trickiest details - on how to not just inform land use decisions but shape them - to future work www.gov.uk/government/p...

Winter isn't coming quite yet, but the government should start planning now for a possible spike in energy bills this winter. In our latest susbtack, @jonnymarshall.bsky.social breaks down how the government should use the next few months to prepare a social tariff. ➡️

🚨New @resolutionfoundation.org note out today on how Government can be ready to protect households from the squeeze this winter 1/ www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

What a difference a week makes. It's almost as though our entire energy system is based on something fundamentally unstable

Speech had surprisingly little on global context. Truth is Iran has the potential to put government cost of living plans completely off track. UK exposed to disruption to LNG supplies from Qatar. Impact of gas price moves so far if sustained would be over £500 increase in energy price cap in July.

Energy bills are finally starting to come down – the next price cap will be £117 (7%) lower than today's. Much-needed good news needed for millions of hard-pressed families🧵 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Tomorrow, Ofgem is expected to announce that the energy price cap for Q2 2026 will be nearly £120 lower than current levels. This policy will deliver a boost to living standards from April and should help to keep bills below current levels until at least 2029. Our analysis ➡️ buff.ly/zrvoZMp

💡 New @resolutionfoundation.org note on energy bills out over the weekend 💡 2026 energy bills are on track to be more than £200 lower, in real terms, than in 2024 – overwhelmingly driven by the Government’s discount kicking in this April. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Today's report isn't usual territory, but does show our commitment to evidence. It would be easy to write a report saying protect consumers at all costs. Great analysis by @zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org persuaded us that wasn't the right answer. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

🧵 New research on decarbonising UK farms and what it means for living standards. The good news is decarbonisation should be manageable and won't cost the world - but it'll still be hard, as farming's in a fragile situation. Here's what we found 👇 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Excited to be finally launching our new report on agricultural decarbonisation tomorrow morning - 9:30 online or in person for anyone who wants to join! 🐑🚜🐮 www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/net-z...

After half a decade of chopping and changing on home upgrade schemes, the Warm Homes Plan should see a more consistent Government approach into the late 2020s. As well as ensuring stable funding, the Plan will also see all programs funded centrally. More on the Warm Homes plan➡️ buff.ly/QJ2881G

Lots of good stuff in the Government's Warm Homes Plan. See 👇👇👇 for the @resolutionfoundation.org hot take

Good set of results on offshore wind auction contracts – the DESNZ team should be praised for balancing the need to deliver a lot of new capacity with the need to keep prices down www.theguardian.com/environment/...

A DESNZ CLEAN SWEEP A package that saved at least £150 off the average household bill was the minimum this Budget needed to achieve to give Labour at least a fighting chance of getting to their £300 target, given the price rises next year. /1

energy bill discounts doing the heavy lifting on bringing down inflation next year

Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation

So that's £125-ish off energy bills - ECO scrapped and 75% of renewables obligation costs moved into the tax system. Big enough to offset bill increases coming next year, and most (~70%) of the savings coming from electricity bills instead of gas. Overall pretty good.

It's *possible* the Budget could be very green: 🟢 Focus all price cuts on electricity, not gas 🟢 Don't cancel Fuel Duty rises 🟢 Cushion future EV VED rise with public charger VAT cut & other support 🟢 Expand emissions pricing to long-haul flights & international shipping 🟢 Help lower interest rates

In 'Splitting the bill' we found that if the Government removed some policy costs from electricity bills, it could save the average family £160, while pushing down on inflation. Read here 👉 buff.ly/z69JDpL

The Government is reportedly drawing up plans to overhaul car taxation in the upcoming Budget. This is welcome and long overdue – transport taxes have failed to keep up with the switch from Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) to Electric Vehicles (EVs). 🧵 buff.ly/nGl374z

This sounds promising: grappling with a big long-term tax issue. Though the suggested scale would be similar to the £200 EV VED rise that happened this April. And if the VAT 'pavement tax' were abolished at the same time, that might offset most of this cost for drivers without home chargers.

Through successive governments a shadow tax and benefits system has emerged in energy bills worth £7bn. New report out today says government should fix this system, and reduce energy bills for households. www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...

💡💡💡 New @resfoundation.bsky.social note out today on cutting energy bills – and how paying for some costs on bills differently will see the poorest households more than £100 per year better off 💡💡💡 1/ www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

The Government has allocated £13 billion to the Warm Homes Plan. But what should it do with the money? Priority should be given to the poorest households who spend twice as much of their family budgets on energy bills as the richest households. Read more👉 buff.ly/PGjbi38

Interesting energy consumption stats out today - electric cars and domestic heat pumps now account for more than 5% of total electricity use www.gov.uk/government/s...

If govt wants lower bills, especially for lower income households, it needs to pay for it through tax rises right now. Fiddling around with standing charges is deck chair rearrangement - and people who end up with higher bills will make more noise than those who get a cut from this.

Lower standing charges aren’t the answer to high energy bills: a tariff with a 50% cut in standing charges would only see one in six families save more than £100 on energy bills – 43 per cent would see bills increase

Most of this change in energy bills being driven by an increase in standing charges, which are up for both gas and for electricity into Q4

How should the Government prioritise its £13 billion Warm Homes Plan budget? Priority should be given to the poorest households who spend twice as much of family budgets on energy bills as the richest households. Read more: buff.ly/PGjbi38

Great to see Guardian cover our research today - it's flats and smaller houses that are most at risk of overheating, so should be no surprise that vulnerable families will be more at risk. Important to think about cooling homes as well as warming them!

⚡⚡ New @resfoundation.bsky.social note out today looking at how the Government should prioritise its £13 billion Warm Homes Plan budget ⚡⚡ www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Good to see the flexibility roadmap out today. Flex is key to a cheaper energy system, so great that Gov is committed to this. Especially big savings coming for those with big techs like EVs and heat pumps. www.gov.uk/government/p...

Shame to see rising block tariffs suggested. A bad idea for poorer families that use lots of energy, but also not great for incentivising people to consume more electricity in electric cars or heat pumps

The challenge of energy affordability is very real, but rising block tariffs aren’t the answer. People on low incomes with poorly insulated homes or who need more energy for health reasons could see rising bills, while those with multiple homes or can install solar panels avoid paying a fair share

@resfoundation.bsky.social colleagues noted last year that extending Winter Fuel Payments to pensioners on Housing Benefit would target low incomes at a cost of £100m (& a HB - Pension Credit merger is planned longer-term). Another £200m could extend WFPs to those on Attendance Allowance, DLA & PIP

Higher energy bills driving today's inflation figures, with changes in fuel costs behind nearly 90% of the year-on-year increase. Policies that pay for environmental and social schemes (among other things) up a bit too but nowhere near as much

🚨 🚨 🚨 New @resfoundation.bsky.social research out today on decarbonising home heating, looking at what shape policy should take so that poorer households can be more involved 🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

New @resfoundation.bsky.social research out this morning from @emilyfry.bsky.social, @camronaref.bsky.social and I which uses the first ever comprehensive analysis of public service use across the income distribution to show how we can make public services better for low-to-middle income families.

The roll-out of heat pumps as part of the net zero transition has been slow. Join us tomorrow to discuss how policy can encourage greater take-up, and ensure ongoing cash savings for consumers. Sign-up now ➡️ buff.ly/X41yJC6

It's also widely reported that poorer places are being left behind when it comes to public EV chargers But when we look at on-street chargers (the most important type for widespread EV uptake) we can see that this just isn't true

It’s freezing cold again, meaning real stress for most vulnerable trying to keep warm at home 1/ www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Right, standing charges…

Lots to unpack here. Lets give it a go. 🧵