Governor Newsom just reauthorized California’s centerpiece climate policy - cap and invest - for the next two decades, reducing pollution and electricity prices in the world’s 4th biggest economy. This is now the US’ most important climate policy.

California Assembly and Senate just passed AB 1207, extending and strengthening the state’s centerpiece climate policy - cap and invest- for the next 20 years. Now onto the governor’s signature! #climatesky #energysky

Without GHGRP, we are blind to what's happening to US GHG emissions. #climatesky #energysky

Dr. Kyle Meng, UC Santa Barbara: “This is the most important U.S. climate policy for the foreseeable future. These bills send a signal that California is doubling down on its climate commitments for the next two decades with a practical approach that meets both climate and affordability goals.”

Hey, #EconSky! Got a policy-relevant paper that you want folks in DC to see? Present & publish it with NBER's Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy. Submission deadline is Oct 20. Conference is in DC on May 21, 2026. More details below. conference.nber.org/confsubmit/b...

Today marks a major development in U.S. climate policy. Gov. Newsom, the CA Assembly & Senate just released the final cap-and-trade—now called cap-and-invest—reauthorization bill: AB 1207. 1/ #climatesky #energysky

The big story here is of an agency of dedicated statisticians and public servants working tirelessly to improve economic data in a climate of budgetary cuts to data collection. They have been very innovative in meeting that mandate. But we should also just fund our economic infrastructure.

California has a little over 24 hrs to release legislative language on cap & trade reauthorization. Hard to imagine the most significant U.S climate policy in the foreseeable future with such stakeholder and political support is cutting it this close. #climatesky #energysky

I'm hiring predocs to work with me on econ policy research projects starting in Summer 2026. Topics include healthcare, consumer finance, energy markets, housing, and childcare. You'll be part of an awesome community of @siepr.bsky.social predocs. Details here: siepr.stanford.edu/programs/sie...

Our comment on the DOE CWG report is done. It tips the scales at 439 pages, approx. 3x longer than the DOE report. This is related to Brandolini's law: The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it. Example: refuting one sentence.

Recent CA Assembly movement in cap-and-trade bill may have propped up permit prices in today's CARB auction. But CA still losing revenue from C&T uncertainty: today's revenue could have been ~$300M more under last year's prices. CA policymakers need to reauthorize C&T. #energysky #climatesky

#climatesky #energysky

The most important U.S. climate legislation over the next few years is out! ASM Irwin's draft California Assembly Bill 1207 reauthorizes California's ground breaking GHG cap-and-trade (C&T) program. Here are 5 key takeaways from AB 1207 1/

"As flaccid as a boned fish, Donald Trump crumpled quicker than even Vladimir Putin probably anticipated...The president’s thunderous demands — a 50-day deadline, a 10-day deadline, “severe consequences,” a ceasefire before negotiations — all were just noise."

"To avoid long-term geopolitical consequences, the United States must reassert its clean energy leadership or risk marginalizing itself from the future economic and geopolitical opportunities of global value chains." Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/us-...

📬 Registration is now open for the 22nd Occasional Workshop in Environmental and Resource Economics! Join us in beautiful Santa Barbara, October 24–25, 2025! 👉 Full list of speakers: occasionalworkshop.weebly.com/program.html 👉 Register here: occasionalworkshop.weebly.com/registration...

This made my day.

America’s lowest-paid workers are suffering a sharper slowdown in wage growth than their richer peers, adding to the pressure on Donald Trump over inequality https://on.ft.com/3UbHZ3u

What to make of POTUS's attempt to fire the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)? Let's run down what knowledgable people are saying...

Those are not “her” (BLS Commissioner’s) numbers. They’re constructed by career civil servants using data collected from thousands of businesses and government agencies.

Is sea level around the US accelerating? If you actually do the analysis, instead of just repeating talking points from decades ago, the answer is yes. tamino.wordpress.com/2025/08/03/s...

Trump Fired America’s Economic Data Collector. History Shows the Perils. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...

Columbia’s Administrators Are Fooling Themselves www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...

@mikegeruso.bsky.social and Dean Spears' book After the Spike is out! One of the most thoughtful and thought-provoking books on population out there.

Our paper is officially out 🎉 We argue that climate clubs show promise: - A climate club with coordinated penalties could curb 68% of excess emissions from free-riding -Unilateral carbon tariffs? Not nearly as effective

The most binding changes to Medicaid won't occur until at least December of next year, after the midterms. Politics has a short memory, but we don't.  Jared Bernstein and Elena Patel on the long-term impacts of the BBB.

"Trump and his team have focused on reducing trade deficits in negotiations with many other nations, and his letter to Brazil references trade deficits as a national security threat, despite the fact that the U.S. runs a surplus with the country."

My Sac Bee op-ed on how reauthorizing California's cap-and-trade program can help lower household electricity prices across the state. #energysky #climatesky

A must read substack for anyone interested in CA gas prices. Many have seen this "CA gas prices will hit $8/gal" study floating around. Ryan Cummings, my Biden CEA colleague and one of the sharpest thinkers on oil markets, takes this study to task. And it doesn't stand up well... #energysky

I agree with all of Kyle’s critiques and would add 2 more: 1. The piece cites Australia and Canada as countries where voters rejected carbon prices, but that’s not true. In AUS it’s called a “safeguard mechanism” and was put in place in 2023. CAN kept the price for industries the focus of the piece

This Op-Ed on a U.S. carbon tariff gets lots of basic stuff wrong. Unlike authors' claims, a U.S. carbon tariff 1. Won't address PRC competition 2. Either raises lots of revenue or lowers GHGs (not both) 3. Weakens incentives to adopt domestic U.S. climate policy. 🧵 1/ #econsky #climatesky

I hope some Senate aides read our new briefer on China battery and mineral supply chain dependencies before altering IRA rules on Section 30D or 45X. Losing local content incentives and overly restrictive FEOC rules would be a huge mistake. councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/05/30/t...

The Senate Finance committee just dropped their draft text for the Republican budget bill. www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-ne... Like the House, it is hot trash and terrible for America. But it is marginally better for clean energy credits. Some key details... 🔌💡 🔌🚗

Batteries are a critical technology for the 21st century and one which the U.S. must be globally competitive in. We are already several years behind the PRC in battery manufacturing. And will only fall further behind under current policy trajectory.

Our @voxeu.org article on our Cape Town Day Zero paper. When adaptation to climate change has equity consequences through how public utilities recover costs. #EconSky #ClimateSky

I remember when the term “framework” was used to refer to an international agreement over not much. Now it’s “handshake for a framework.”

An excellent NYT Daily podcast about how 15 years of inconsistent start-stop U.S. industrial policy has kept us vulnerable on rare earths.

Clever California legislation back during Trump 1. www.politico.com/story/2018/0...

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EXTREMELY BAD NEWS for economic research, per former BLS Commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social on LinkedIn. BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS. #EconSky

Yesterday, AB745 (Irwin) passed the CA Assembly unanimously. It takes cap-and-trade funds from the climate credit & uses it to lower electricity prices during the summer, providing relief when needed most. This addresses energy affordability & provides momentum for C&T renewal. 1/ #energysky

Forcing utilities to run uncompetitive generation is not going to lower electricity prices. #energysky

Midnight, June 7 is the deadline to comment on the revised Schedule F, Trump's plan to politicize the civil servants by converting them into at-will appointees that can be fired for the mildest pushback against illegal actions. It's easy - here is how: donmoynihan.substack.com/p/last-day-t...

Behold! The 22nd Occasional Workshop in Environmental and Resource Economics at UC Santa Barbara. October 24-25, 2025. The only conference with elite talks AND walks by the beach. Paper submissions due Friday, June 27. #econsky

Today, Asm Irwin's AB745 passed unanimously from CA Asmbly Utilities & Energy Committee. It uses cap-and-trade funds to lower household electricity prices by 13-19%, as per our emLab study. A big step for C&T renewal & making energy affordable. My testimony before the vote at 41m. #energysky

Tomorrow, I return to the CA State Capitol to testify before the Assembly Utilities and Energy Committee on Asm Irwin's AB 745, which uses cap-and-trade revenue to lower electricity prices. Our emLab analysis shows this can meaningfully reduce electricity prices. Tune in at 9am PT. #energysky

NASA GISS is a national treasure.

NEW: Citations in the MAHA Report have telltale signs of AI chatbot use -- we reviewed all 522 of the listed citations, and at least 37 of the footnotes appear multiple times in the citations with another 21 having dead links w/ @laurenweberhp.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...

Pre-order now! My former CEA colleague @mikegeruso.bsky.social and his UT Austin coauthor Dean Spears has a new book on what the world would be like with declining population. One of the most nuanced, thoughtful books you will find on the economic, social, and environmental consequences of people.