Do architecture and urban planning affect political behavior? Happy to share a paper that @tesaliarizzo.bsky.social and I have coming out at the APSR which uses computer vision to investigate how the built environment shapes inequalities in civic participation in Mexico: osf.io/preprints/so.... 🧵1/5

📄 New WP version out - full overhaul! The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social ) Comments welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...

Excited to have this paper on social networks as a mechanism for cleavage stabilization with @dpzollinger.bsky.social out! If we have you intrigued, also pairs with (and empirically engages) our theoretical piece on puzzles of contemporary cleavage research: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

New publication just out at @cpsjournal.bsky.social: using household panel data from Germany, I show that residential moves are associated with declines in local-level engagement but have no effect on national-level engagement. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

📘 The intro to the special issue "Victims of their own success? How successful liberal orders can become self-undermining" highlights how liberalism destabilises itself through excess, exploitation and exhaustion 👇 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Engagement-based #algorithms amplify intergroup hostility + moral-emotional content, leading it to be overrepresented in your feed This leads us to falsely perceive that people want to see this kind of content and share more of it. This technology fuels false polarization: osf.io/preprints/os...

Are you already religiously following polls in Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Germany, Malta, Monaco, Poland or Türkiye? Come join our team and support them with data entry! Sign up here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Good vibes image of the day. I'd also be happy to get such a pyramid :)

Krisen, Frust oder Angst vor dem sozialen Abstieg, das sind einige Ansätze, um das zu erklären: Warum so schnell viel mehr Menschen radikal rechte Parteien unterstützen, nicht nur in D. Seltener wird geschaut, inwiefern die Einstellungen schon da waren. share.deutschlandradio.de/dlf-audiothe... 1/

It’s not easy to break free from deep dependencies. But it can be done. ICC to drop MS for German alternative ⬇️ www.euractiv.com/news/interna...

Happy to share that my article with Miguel Rueda and Shuning Ge is out for early view at @bjpols.bsky.social. We show that the level of aggregation at which electoral results are published affects election integrity. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

🚨 New piece out at @thejop.bsky.social w awesome @cvargiu.bsky.social & D Garzia If incivility means breaking norms, & norms are person- and context-dependent, *does incivility even exist*? In the stage-2 registered report we investigate what drives perceptions of incivility tinyurl.com/4h5u4y8y

🌍 Brussels effect or 🪃 boomerang? Francesca Minetto (@hertieschool.bsky.social) shows that over 20% of EU legislation draws directly on international models, revealing that the EU not only exports but also imports policies 👇 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

My message at the United Nations General Assembly #UNGA80: "Welfare cuts are fuelling far right rise" Press release ➡️: www.ohchr.org/en/press-rel...

🧭 Natascha Zaun takes the long view on how EU migration policy evolved from integration to selective consolidation: from Amsterdam to today's ad hoc Schengen suspension 👇 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Wonderful to see our paper on perceived inequality and populism at the EJPR. 👇

💶🛡️ Can the EU learn from 1915 Switzerland on financing defence? ⚔️ Tiziano Zgaga traces how Swiss cantons organised defence spending at the central level and what this experience can teach today’s EU about creating fiscal capacity👇 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?

Paths to Power (PtP) is out in @bjpols.bsky.social! It is a database with data on cabinet members' social profile globally from 1966-2021. This is a great team effort with @chknutsen.bsky.social, @peterla.bsky.social, @inalkristiansen.bsky.social. But many more helped us along the way 🙏 A short 🧵

Citizens in 🥜-regions closer to Russia became more supportive of EU defence, enlargement & foreign policy after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine (exception: energy policy) By @giorgiomalet.bsky.social and @svenhegewald.bsky.social 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Fascinating intiative being discussed in EU circles about easing enalrgement by accepting new members without granting them veto rights. This would build on the idea of 'staged accession' spearheaded by @stevenblockmans.bsky.social and others.

German far right setting agenda as opponents amplify its ideas, study finds www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o...

Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12

NL needs an electoral threshold, eg. 4% (as in Sweden). It would encourage smaller parties to merge, voters to coordinate around medium and larger parties, and make coalition formation easier, governments more stable, and improve governability overall. Come on guys, Europe needs you to do this!

Oh yay, since there's no open professorships due to budget cuts all around, a record number of ECRs have to gamble their hopes for future on getting one of the few lifelines still available! Fantastic!

Migrant Electoral Rights Dataset (1960-2020) 📊 Link to dataset: hdl.handle.net/1814/93661 📕 Link to codebook: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c... 💼 Link to 400 page documentation: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...

Here is a very niche sign of how far the US has fallen. If you attend a political science conference today, you will hear scholars stumbling over how to introduce datasets that until last year were known as describing "wealthy industrialized democracies".

Great study on the urban-rural divide in Sweden. Clear attitude- and identity-based polarization, but no systematic bias towards out-group political candidates.

I'm starting to explore {simDAG}, a nifty #rstats package that has a nice API for specifying DAGs and then simulating data from them: robindenz1.github.io/simDAG/

🚨 New(ish) Publication Alert! Delighted to see my article Credit Claiming in the EU @thejop.bsky.social I explore a classic question for accountability in Europe: when and why do govs claim credit for the work of the EU and shift blame onto Brussels to avoid responsibility? doi.org/10.1086/732970

The Spanish centre-right is taking a tumble and the far-right is on the rise. I was lucky enough to present some new causal work on Friday at LSE showing that the PP does better when it signals distinctiveness from VOX. ~1.5K tests, same result. Rejecting far-right benefits centre-right

Increasingly, politics in West Europe is a mirror of East Europe, with a large radical right party against a rag-tag of centrist/liberal, centre-left, green and radical left parties and a rapidly declining centre right. The challenge is to coordinate the progressive opposition to the radical right.

Tariffs might be the word of 2025. Given the state of *looks around* we asked: is there demand for tariffs in Europe? @grahn.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @sophiemainz.bsky.social Maria Nordbrandt & I show the answer is a resolute no @jeppjournal.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/1350...

How do different forms of state capacity protect democracy? D Andersen, @chknutsen.bsky.social & @skaaning.bsky.social argue coercive & administrative capacity affect stability in distinct ways depending on threat: buff.ly/2yUrCqu @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

The two steps of the current political dance in the European Parliament: In the short-term, the EPP's threat to vote with the far-right worked, with the socialists S&D caving on the omnibus deregulation. Now every time the EPP can threaten them with a worse alternative. (From @euractiv.com).

🤖How can we turn text into a reliable quantitative measure using supervised learning? ➡️Ju Yeon Park & J M Montgomery outline a framework, illustrated with the tone of questions in U.S. Senate confirmation hearings www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social! Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan: 🧵⬇️

@carotorreblanca.bsky.social , Will Dinneen, and my paper entitled "Political Science Under Pressure: Competition and Collaboration in a Growing Discipline, 2003-2023" has been (conditionally) accepted at @poppublicsphere.bsky.social. This paper has been a labor of love. osf.io/preprints/os...

Tolerance for norm violations is bipartisan, depending on who’s president. Littvay et al. show that while Republicans are more lenient of their president eroding norms, Democrats’ tolerance increases when they hold the presidency. Read more: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

New paper out with @dasalgon.bsky.social: “Far-Right Agenda Setting: How the Far Right influences the Political Mainstream” doi.org/10.1017/S1475676525100066 #openaccess in @ejprjournal.bsky.social🧵

Radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🗳️ Policy congruence is key for democratic accountability. ➡️Using a game theoretic model, @liviodilo.bsky.social & T Dragu show that when an issue is more salient in elections, representatives' policies align less with voters' preferences www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

Currently in FirstView: In “What to Observe When Assuming Selection on Observables,” Kevin M. Quinn, Guoer Liu, Lee Epstein, and Andrew Martin clarify how most estimators justified by a selection-on-observables assumption are special cases of a general weighting estimator.

Excellent work from my SU colleague Einar Bäckström on the temporal dynamics of the winner loser gap in democracy satisfaction using a regression discontinuity in time design across 21 European countries. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Workers on temporary contracts are more likely to strongly support redistribution. But in times of economic uncertainty, preferences converge as permanent workers also demand more government intervention www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

When Nature Strikes: Which Regimes Exploit Natural Disasters for Fiscal Expansion? A new article in Governance with Suen Wang examines this question. We find that hybrid regimes do, while democracies and autocracies do not. 🔗 doi.org/10.1111/gove...

🏭 How can we measure firms' political influence across countries? ➡️Using surveys of 27,000+ firms in 41 countries and a Bayesian IRT model, D C. Francis & @rmkubinec.bsky.social estimate firm-level influence scores and show how they vary across regimes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️‍🌈 But is this really the case? doi.org/10.1017/S147...

🤝 @jochemvanagt.bsky.social, Katrin Praprotnik, @luanarusso.bsky.social, and @markuswagner.bsky.social show that when the mainstream right signals openness to govern with the far right, it eases tensions on the right but amplifies antipathy on the left 👇 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Check out this great 🧵 by @svenhegewald.bsky.social on our recent @cpsjournal.bsky.social paper.