Remember when JD Vance's visit to Hungary was all over the news a few weeks ago? In a post-election survey I fielded between April 13 and yesterday, I asked Hungarian respondents (n = 1,060) to assess how the visit influenced their vote. It seemed to do little, but if it did anything it *backfired.*

I’m very pleased to share that I defended my dissertation, “Standing for Democracy.” I‘m very gratefuk to my amazing committee, Erica Frantz, Michael Wahman, Ana Bracic, and Andy Halterman! I’m also pleased to share that I’ll be starting a postdoc at @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social in September.

I’m very pleased to share that I defended my dissertation, “Standing for Democracy.” I‘m very gratefuk to my amazing committee, Erica Frantz, Michael Wahman, Ana Bracic, and Andy Halterman! I’m also pleased to share that I’ll be starting a postdoc at @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social in September.

Great to be back at MPSA! I’ll be presenting work with @hmridge.bsky.social and Daniel Markovits. Come say hi!

Great to be back at MPSA! I’ll be presenting work with @hmridge.bsky.social and Daniel Markovits. Come say hi!

This is very consistent with what @alelov.bsky.social and I argue in our paper (now under review). As leaders consolidate power in backsliding settings, they no longer "need" to keep women in positions of power and are often very willing to forego women, particularly in high-prestige positions.

I will also be presenting work in progress with Daniel Markovits, Abhu Tyagi, and Jeremy Price on public support for opposition coalitions. While elites play a critical role in coalition formation, public support for them is often critical. We highlight the role of prospective threats to democracy.

I will also be presenting work in progress with Daniel Markovits, Abhu Tyagi, and Jeremy Price on public support for opposition coalitions. While elites play a critical role in coalition formation, public support for them is often critical. We highlight the role of prospective threats to democracy.

MPSA papers submitted! I will be presenting work with @hmridge.bsky.social on the conditional effect of ascriptive identities on tolerance for democratic transgressions next Saturday. We are very grateful to the @prl.bsky.social for including our experiments in their survey in Germany and Israel!

MPSA papers submitted! I will be presenting work with @hmridge.bsky.social on the conditional effect of ascriptive identities on tolerance for democratic transgressions next Saturday. We are very grateful to the @prl.bsky.social for including our experiments in their survey in Germany and Israel!

Drivers of Congressional Behavior: Analyzing Members, Constituents, and Committees With CongressData doi.org/10.1177/1532... Our new article is now available online.

Thrilled to share that my paper with @mattgrossmann.bsky.social and Caleb Lucas is now out at American Politics Research. In it, we introduce CongressData, a novel repository of 1,300+ variables on the US Congress. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/....

Just sent one of my dissertation papers out for reviews only to get a rejection two minutes later for another one of my dissertation papers that was under review! Happy Wednesday!

Peter Magyar confirmed that Szijjarto, Orbán's FM, has barricaded himself with some of his closest colleagues and is shredding documents related to the sanctions on Russia any other evidence of treason.

Polling stations have now closed in Hungary. I fielded a pre-election survey among Hungarians up until yesterday (1065 respondents). When asked if they had to choose between Tisza and Fidesz to form the next government, 57% selected Tisza, and the rest Fidesz (current government).

1/ The starting point: Orbán did not build an illiberal democracy. He built an authoritarian regime: an illiberal kleptocracy with institutional cover.

Ma este Európa szíve erősebben dobog Magyarországon. Europe’s heart is beating stronger in Hungary tonight.

Keeping this for the future: Orbán on TV saying that the election results are painful but clear. This feels momentous. #Hungary

It's over. Peter Magyar will be Hungary's new Prime Minister. Viktor Orban has appeared to concede.

It's over. Peter Magyar will be Hungary's new Prime Minister. Viktor Orban has appeared to concede.

Viktor Orbán has congratulated Péter Magyar! #Hungary

Now at 54% of votes in...Tisza still maintaining a supermajority over Fidesz in #Hungaryelection.

46% of votes in and Tisza now has a *supermajority*!

37% of the votes counted now in Hungary. Tisza is one seat short of a supermajority.

UPDATE: Now with 22% of votes in, Tisza's lead has increased to 128 seats!

With 15% of the votes counted, it looks like a huge win for Tisza (the opposition) in Hungary's election. Critical to emphasize that even *if* Tisza wins, it does not mean that there won't be challenges. Fidesz is looking increasingly likely to do so and has already raised alarms of "fraud."

Polling stations have now closed in Hungary. I fielded a pre-election survey among Hungarians up until yesterday (1065 respondents). When asked if they had to choose between Tisza and Fidesz to form the next government, 57% selected Tisza, and the rest Fidesz (current government).

And we surpassed the 2022 turnout – it's now at 74.23%! #Hungary 🗳️🇭🇺 Polls close at 7 pm, but anyone who gets in line until then will be able to cast a vote.

Hungarian voters turn out in force for biggest test of Orbán era ft.trib.al/AVotRAP

Hungarian elections are taking place tomorrow (as everyone knows by now, unless you live under a 🪨). 🗳️🇭🇺 I'm re-upping my threads from the last few weeks for anyone who wants to get a quick (or not so quick) primer: 1/

To those using @acleddata.bsky.social: have any of you been able to download data for events that have occurred in the past 4-6 months? I'm looking to download protest data from Iran for December until the present but it won't let me. All leads much appreciated!!

To those using @acleddata.bsky.social: have any of you been able to download data for events that have occurred in the past 4-6 months? I'm looking to download protest data from Iran for December until the present but it won't let me. All leads much appreciated!!

New preprint out today (osf.io/preprints/ps...). We tested whether AI agents are actually infiltrating online surveys. Spoiler alert: they aren't Thread 🧵 [1/9]

What a great time to have a survey on the effects of foreign cues on public opinion in the field in Hungary!

I am excited to announce the beta release of @verasight.io’s Free AI Survey Programming Tool: Doc2Survey, that automatically converts any survey drafted in a Word or Google Doc to a programmed Qualtrics survey (.qsf file). We are making Doc2Survey available for free! www.verasight.io/doc2survey

T-7 days until the Hungarian election. 🇭🇺🗳️ In this third (most likely final) thread before the election, I discuss four potential outcomes of the election and possible scenarios for post-April 12 🧵 1/

Article accepted for publication and another rejected all at the same time! Happy Friday!

An incredibly valuable resource for those interested in public opinion, Israeli politics, and (might I argue) democratic backsliding, as well.

This is a fucking insane law advanced by some of the most dangerous and deeply immoral leaders Israel has ever had. It has been a nonstop drumbeat of these racist policies, but there is no end, no low too low for this coalition.

Trying to program a conjoint in qualtrics and struggling with getting the randomized attributes to show up even though I've programmed them in JavaScript. Anyone able to assist with this? Thanks so much in advance!

Dissertation submitted to my committee! After years of working on this project, I'm excited to defend. I'll be continuing my dissertation work as a postdoc at @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social, where I'll work on turning papers two and three into a book on international actors and democratic resilience.

Today at 4pm CET/11 EST! Foreign cues (of all sorts) on democracy in other countries are increasingly common but do they actually shape public opinion in backsliding settings? Come to my talk to find out more.

Netanyahu’s endorsement is not surprising and not the first time he’s come out and supported Orban. In fact, he‘s very much relied on and built on Orban’s model of democratic erosion: slowly chipping away at democracy. Especially interesting times with Israel also slated to hold elections.

I've been asked over the last few days/weeks what I think will happen on April 12th in Orbán's 🇭🇺 (and the aftermath), so here's my assessment, looking at everything as it stands now 🧵 tldr: It's complicated, and no one really knows (and those who say they do are either lying or overly confident) 1/

Thrilled to share that next year I'll be @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social as the Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow, before starting @sc.edu as an Assistant Professor of Political Science in Fall 2027! Very excited to join such a dynamic department and to contribute to public ed back home in the Carolinas.

Thrilled to be presenting work in progress on foreign cues and support for opposition actors in backsliding settings next Wednesday as part of the Work in Progress Series @gldinstitute.bsky.social! Zoom available in link, workshop at 4pm CET/11 EST, paper on my website. gld.gu.se/en/event/gld....

Dissertation defense scheduled!! And now writing the conclusion for my dissertation project on opposition to backsliding and the nexus of domestic and international factors in this context. A truly unreal moment, especially with all the changes in the international system.

Out in @thejop.bsky.social: How Exiles Mobilize Domestic Dissent with @aasiegel.bsky.social We investigate how Egyptian exiles influenced a cascade of online dissent that culminated in anti-regime protests back home in September 2019. Article link: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...