Join us at 9am for a live edition of the Science of Politics podcast. We'll talk shutdown politics, Democratic Party factions, repositioning, the 2026 elections, & long-term prospects for liberalism & renewal

Depolarization is not "a scalable solution for reducing societal-level conflict.... achieving lasting depolarization will likely require....moving beyond individual-level treatments to address the elite behaviors and structural incentives that fuel partisan conflict" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Gaining Dem senate control in 2026 is very unlikely (ME, NC, OH, & elsewhere?!). But margins matter; every race lost in 2024 made 2026 harder. 2028 doesn't offer much more. Dem geographic disadvantage is real but it may mean they need to win 3 cycles in a row (haven't since 80s)

Excellent work here by @mikecowburn.bsky.social and @meredithconroy.bsky.social! Very interesting dynamics potentially driving these gendered trends: Dems worry (too much) about a what an imagined public might want. Reps do what they want, when they feel like they can.

Democratic women are disadvantaged in competitive district primaries, where party elites prioritize electability & view men as safer. Republican women are disadvantaged in safe district primaries, where elites & voters assume they are less conservative. www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

Among both Democrats and Republicans, jurors openly favor (hypothetical) copartisan defendants over out-partisan defendants, with the greatest effects among those that are most affectively polarized journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Really enjoyed this discussion about the impacts of partisan redistricting and gerrymandering for control of Congress.

Will Partisan Redistricting Tip Congress? New #ScienceOfPolitics with Eric McGhee and Daniel Kolliner www.niskanencenter.org/will-partisa...

Will Partisan Redistricting Tip Congress? New #ScienceOfPolitics with Eric McGhee and Daniel Kolliner www.niskanencenter.org/will-partisa...

Dem voters also favored a shutdown & thought Republicans would be blamed (though more narrowly) last time they forced one (over DACA in Jan 2018): www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p... But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything): www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...

I've made ideological perception data I've been working on for a while available at the Harvard Dataverse and put together a website here voterperceptions.org with a bunch of visualizations about it and with too much explanation. I've spent too much time on this, so I hope people find it useful

Policymakers do listen to strong evidence & rate it more highly, regardless of ideological alignment with policy goodauthority.org/news/do-poli...

Join us in person in DC or online for a live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with @mattyglesias.bsky.social & Steven Teles on whether & how the Democratic Party will revive. Thursday, 9/25 at 9am

New diss looks good: Building the New Right: How Conservatives Mobilized Young Americans for Freedom to Capture the Republican Party, 1960-1980 www.proquest.com/openview/dd0...

Economic crises tend to help the right because voters assign greater importance to issues owned by the right. When center-right parties preside over a crisis, voters often drift further rightward to nationalist parties rather than defect to the left onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

My working AI productivity theory (seeking similar takes): AI’s bottleneck will be bureaucracy. As tasks automate, throughput gets paced by review queues. “Fewer people, faster” becomes more waiting & loophole finding. Jobs concentrated in compliance, risk, review, audit, legal

This is a misreading of what happened in March: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/07/o... The mistake was made early, forwarding a vague "stop DOGE" ask that ended negotiations, thus having to swallow House messaging bill. The difficulty, which Ezra gets to at the end, is finding a winnable ask

Join me at @niskanencenter.bsky.social in DC on Thurs 9/25 at 9am for a live edition of the Science Of Politics podcast (with bagels & coffee): Revive or Rebrand? The Future of the Democratic Party with @mattyglesias.bsky.social & Steven Teles www.eventbrite.com/e/revive-or-...

The Fall of an Independent Fed The Fed was never the most independent & is becoming less so in the face of Trump pressure. That could move it toward enabling inflation & government spending New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Cristina Bodea www.niskanencenter.org/the-fall-of-...

Crazy that so much spending power keeps moving to the president & they seem likely to get away with it. More on picket rescissions & the huge hole it opens: - mattglassman.substack.com/p/is-that-a-... - www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lega...

the campaign finance advantage of incumbents at all levels of government has declined 25% to 50% over the last decade, driven entirely by individual donors scholar.google.com/scholar_url?...

They are starting pocket rescissions: www.politico.com/news/2025/08... Would be a continuation of huge shift of spending power away from Congress if it stands, likely more coming We discussed here:

Partisan defections & vote switching continued to decline in 2024 as negative partisanship continued preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-g...

Republican Members of Congress are no longer coming from elite institutions of higher education. Elite-educated legislators are more liberal. Important manifestation of the education divide between the parties & context for the current higher ed wars www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

AI-exposed early career workers are suffering employment declines digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/wp-content/u...

2024 non-voters also supported Trump, marking the first time in recent elections they have favored the Republican candidate, but they also supported Democratic House candidates by a small margin goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...

Legislators & staffers have a bias toward thinking the public is evenly divided on policy issues, rather than a conservative bias in perception; prior findings were based on policy questions where the liberal position was more popular adamzelizer.com/wp-content/u...

small business owners are more likely to identify with & vote for right-wing parties because it leads people to adopt conservative views on government regulation, not just from selection www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

issues that are nonpolarized can become suddenly polarized when paired with solutions that are consistent with an ideological position because of solution aversion (denying problems when solutions conflict with political beliefs) & solution attraction www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Rates of daily reading for pleasure have declined over the past 20 years in the US Disparities across racial groups, levels of education, and income increased over time www.cell.com/iscience/ful...

AI use & coverage are growing quickly & recently across academic fields arxiv.org/pdf/2405.15828

Stimson updated policy mood, a measure of the public's overall liberal (higher) or conservative (lower) policy views; it shows no conservative move under Biden after a large liberal move under Trump stimson.web.unc.edu/data/

The public becomes more supportive of multiple types of social spending when the economy grows, when spending overall declines, & under Republican presidents, explaining why the public tends to simultaneously grow more liberal or conservative across issues www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Making AI policy: Are we falling behind or rushing in? Chinnu Parinandi and Heonuk Ha review state and federal AI legislation so far, finding some partisan differences & a lot of uncertain issues ahead New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript: www.niskanencenter.org/making-ai-po...

Across Europe, the average parliamentarian is much more culturally liberal than the national mean voter, across issues, countries, demographic groups, & mainstream parties, creating the opening for right-wing populists papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

R&D has become more effective at finding productivity-enhancing ideas, but these ideas render rivals’ technologies obsolete, making innovations more transient. As a result, rising R&D does not mean rising aggregate productivity growth. scholarship.law.bu.edu/faculty_scho...

Global welfare state expansion has moved to new areas like early childhood in recent decades, but changes in focus are more pronounced than a global rise & fall www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Spending power is moving to the Executive Branch, often via seemingly technical decisions

Our full-family-agreed roadtrip audiobook this summer was Hit Girls by @NoraPrinciotti Recommended, especially for the Max Martin content libro.fm/audiobooks/9... Martin = very high WAR

religious homogeneity was related to the origins and the consolidation of the first parliaments. Conversely, religious diversity contributed to the collapse of other early parliamentary regimes muse.jhu.edu/article/964565

Race to the top raised student test scores journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Weighting by recalled past vote significantly increased the accuracy of swing state presidential polling in 2024, less so for recalled turnout. Much more error in presidential than downballot (Trump-only undervotes?). via @gelliottmorris.com's newsletter. globalstrategygroup.com/wp-content/u...

Just out at @polbehavior.bsky.social w/Carey Stapleton: Voting by mail has the upside of boosting correct voting. When people vote by mail rather than in-person, they are more likely to choose the presidential candidate best aligned with their preferences. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Is democracy failing education? New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Vlad Kogan on his new book, No Adult Left Behind www.niskanencenter.org/is-democracy...

Wow, it's not often a political stat stuns me anymore. But: "Over 11% of the world’s billionaires have held or sought political office." From "Billionaire Politics: A Global Perspective" in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social by Krcmaric Nelson & Roberts. They often seek top offices, win, and lean right.

sequential reporting of vote counts may amplify false perceptions of election fraud journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Across cultures, 'cool' people are perceived as more extraverted, hedonistic, powerful, adventurous, open, & autonomous, whereas 'good' people are more conforming, traditional, secure, warm, agreeable, conscientious, & calm (though sharing other traits) psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...

Republicans evaluate women legislators more negatively until they are perceived as being obstructive. As a result, Republican women are more likely to endorse obstruction: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Texas redraw would give Republicans more of a national advantage in districting, but from a low point in their advantage relative to the last few decades (though it may matter more now that fewer candidates substantially outperform their party) www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/u...

A new article by David Mayhew and Ethan Yan on "memorable drives" to repeal congressional measures targeting Prohibition, the Taft–Hartley Act, and the ACA. "A congressional enactment can be just a first draft." www.cambridge.org/core/journal...