Has there been any chatter anywhere on this site or elsewhere about how much the topline results in the 2024 ANES are off? It shows Harris winning by 11 points. That seems bad.

I want to state publicly that toddlers on leashes are hilarious!

“Federal job applicants will soon be quizzed on their favorite Trump administration policy as part of the hiring process, according to the Office of Personnel Management’s new ‘merit hiring plan.’” www.govexec.com/workforce/20...

My flight to Chicago was just canceled for unknown reasons. I’m not even sure if I’ll be able to make it to #MPSA25

I wish the Democrats would realize that Trump's approval rating is as high as it is because of a total lack of unified messaging on their part. The Party needs to engage in a full court press against this administration. People will only believe this is a constitutional crisis if they see RESISTANCE

This EO dictates what faculty at service academies can and cannot teach in the classroom. This executive order, titled, "Restoring America's Fighting Force" is both unabashedly unconstitutional, running afoul of the First Amendment, and violates accreditation rules. Where's AAUP and the ACLU?!

I don’t have the emotional energy to do this for another four years.

Are you interested in U.S. legislative history? Newly-available complete dataset on all persons serving as legislators in the 50 state houses between 1900 and 2016: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

It speaks to the asymmetry in the party coalitions. Democrats have a programmatic agenda built around equal rights protection and Democrats see Biden’s move as a cop out, while Republicans place a high premium on identity and in-group loyalty, so they fall in line around their party leader.

Trump's approval rating in his first term hovered in the high 30s to low 40s during his entire term. He never saw an approval rating above 50%. Today, support for his presidential transition is around 60%. This is what Skowronek's "politics of reconstruction" looks like.

Is it just me or does Matt Gaetz looks like he could play the villain in a straight to video sequel of 101 Dalmatians

I read this book last week. It’s great!

I am teaching campaigns & elections for the first time since 2016. What are some great readings I can assign to undergrads? Shameless self-promotion is strongly encouraged. #polisky

It turns out the Nick ‘Alpha Male’ Adams is the real deal. He’s not a parody account. He loves watch his butcher, Mario, handle his meat

Would anyone who has recently taught a course for the U.S. Congress OR the Presidency be willing to share their syllabus? #Polisky

The new show, Ted, on Peacock is fantastic. It uses the conceits of a 90s sitcom, albeit with an eye to the 70s great, All in the Family, for inspiration. Seth McFarlane is more than a raunchy jokester. His shows are as much an homage to series’ past as they are subversions of the genre.

My best shows of 2023: 1 The Bear (Hulu) 2 Succession (HBO) 3 Beef ( Netflix) 4 Shrinking ( Apple+) 5 Daisy Jones and the Six (Amazon) 6 The Last of Us (HBO) 7 Jury Duty (Freeve) 8 Reservation Dogs (FX) 9 For All Man Kind (Apple+) 10 Dave (Hulu)

This story is important and horrifying. Includes graphic imagery.

President Biden’s problem is that his older, soft spoken nature doesn’t serve him well in a country looking for charismatic leadership. His style seemed attractive after four years of chaos cause by the Trump presidency. Now, it works against him. We could use some Obama energy right now.

Lessons in Chemistry on AppleTV+ is a really good show!

Hot take: Matthew Broderick is not a particularly good actor. Hot take #2: The Cable Guy, whatever its flaws, has a solid soundtrack!

What is the going rate that people are paying participants for online survey experiments using Lucid, prolific, and mTurk these days? #Polisky

🚨 New Publication Alert 🚨 My new co-authored entitled, "Place, Race, and the Geographic Politics of White Grievance," with @ZoeNemerever, @KalMunis, and Fran Verville is now online at @PolBehavior! #polisky link.springer.com/article/10.1...

At the time, when I wrote this piece in Nov. 2022 I wondered if maybe I was pushing the envelope just a bit too far. I only wish that had been the case . . . So, how does this effort to politicize the military work? 1/

Oh, God! I’ve become an alarming statistic.

Will @goodauth.bsky.social eventually allow submissions from other academics again like the Monkey Cage did, or is that format gone completely? #polisky

For the life of me, I can not figure out why pennies still exist, except to sit in a jar at my grandmother’s house.

Much of mainstream media believes its job heading into the 2024 election cycle is to make this chart balance out. Only then can the parties be presented as equal and opposite. To media, the fact that there's a lot more objectively negative news about Trump is a challenge for them to overcome.

Me retraining my pup, Uly, after a year apart and him reverting back to a feral state: youtu.be/7kLsjvHzpa0?...

polisky I am running the job market information slack this year, so if you are not currently a member of the slack but want to be either to pass along updates because you're on a committee or to track them because you are on the market, please send me an email at [email protected]. Cheers!

Just FYI for polisky the roundtable on democratic backsliding w/a focus on measurement was posted on youtube. This was built around the debate between Anne Meng and Andrew Little and V-Dem. www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJwS...

Polisky friends! What are some of your favorite podcast episodes that you have assigned for an intro to American politics class?

Day 1 on the tenure-track at Carleton College is in the books. The number of brilliant people I met at the faculty retreat today was incredible. The cross-pollination of ideas one gets across departments at a SLAC is unparalleled. I love breaking down disciplinary barriers!

I can't wait to hate watch season 3 of The Morning Show on Apple+

Grad methods should teach: -Gelman & Stern 2006 (below) -Heinmueller et al. on interactions -Data Colada on power -Gelman on interaction power -Jacob/me on post-treatment bias -Franco et al. on dropping conditions/outcomes (still common in "preregistered" work) So many of my reviews are about these

This is what giving up looks like

Yep

🚨 New Publication Alert 🚨 My paper with Zoe Nemerever and Kal Munis entitled, "Race, Place, and the Geographic Politics of White Grievance" has been officially accepted at Political Behavior! In it, we show that place-based attitudes and racial attitudes are intimately linked in complex ways.

Below Deck: Down Under is the best of the below deck franchises.