Central Asian leaders forge new deals with Trump. Here’s what happened at this year’s C5+1 meeting. goodauthority.org/news/central...

Interestingly, we observed a notable drop in Putin approval within our daily surveys of the Russian public during the month of October. Given that Putin approval has been highly stable for years, per our data, this may be a notable finding. Any ideas as to what may underly this shift?

We are looking forward to the first session of our new series this Fri. Oct. 10 at 5pm CET/11am ET. We have two papers about historical legacies in Estonia🇪🇪 from @isadesisto.bsky.social (Princeton) + Robert Lipinski (Oxford), and discussion from @krisztiszabo.bsky.social (RHUL, CEU). Come join!

Up to 25,000 Cubans could soon be fighting for Russia. It is reported that Cubans are promised about $2,000 per month - far more than they can earn at home. It is also possible that they are promised jobs in construction but then sent to the frontlines.

My new piece analyzing Moldovan election results in Russian language version of Postimees (top Estonian daily newspaper): rus.postimees.ee/8337362/ot-p....

My latest: Experts’ rating of U.S. as a democracy in newest Bright Line Watch Survey fell from 67 out of 100 before the 2024 election to 55 in Feb and to 54 in Sep. Experts also now project that the U.S. democracy rating will drop further to 47 by 2027. www.whitetoolong.net/p/all-the-br...

The GOP has a huge structural advantage for shutdown public opinion but may manage to screw that up too. Plus links! @dcinbox.bsky.social @normornstein.bsky.social @mirandayaver.bsky.social @isadesisto.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social etc. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/underminin...

Up to 5,000 Cuban fighters are actively participating in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported, citing an internal US State Department cable reuters.com/world/americas…

Check out my new piece on Moldovan 🇲🇩 elections with @grigopop.bsky.social

🚨 Why do people protest against authoritarian regimes even when facing extreme danger? 🚨 In our new paper on Romania's 1989 Revolution, we find that communities exposed to the communist Gulag showed 5x higher dissent levels. doi.org/10.1177/0010... 1/🧵

In Russia, approval of Trump increased significantly leading up to and after the “Alaska Summit.” But in the past month, disapproval has crept back up to the level it was when Trump took office.

🥂 Another German Unity Day (3 Oct) is round the corner 🎉

In 2026, we'll reconvene on Jan 23 with "The Enemy of My (Historical) Enemy Is My Friend?: Evidence from the Wołyń Massacre" from @francescayton.bsky.social and @isadesisto.bsky.social + comments via Robert Lipinski

We kick off next week w/ papers from our Estonia time-sharing survey: 1️⃣ "The Democratising Effects of the 1989 Baltic Way Demonstration," Robert Lipinski 2️⃣ “The Historical Determinants of Eastern European Solidarity with Ukraine," @isadesisto.bsky.social ➕ Discussion from @krisztiszabo.bsky.social!

Some updates from the Good Authority team on Ukraine 🇺🇦. 1) In Ukraine, fewer women are having children: goodauthority.org/news/in-ukra... 2) Rethinking how Europe can lead peacekeeping in Ukraine: goodauthority.org/news/rethink... Read our latest on Ukraine at the links👆.

As talk of negotiations continues, ordinary Russians remain uncompromising. Around 40% say that troops should withdraw only after annexing part of Ukraine & regime change (i.e., ousting Zelensky). Only 10% support an unconditional, immediate withdrawal.

Tere! I'm in Estonia 🇪🇪 at Uni of Tartu Skytte Institute for 2 months researching the intergenerational effects of Soviet repression. I'm interviewing Estonians whose family experienced deportation/other repression. Interested? Please DM me, email [email protected] & share widely. Aitäh!

Ukrainians don’t think much of Putin’s ‘peace’ plan. Our surveys from earlier this summer show overwhelming opposition to a Russian land grab. See the data here: goodauthority.org/news/ukraini...

How has Russian public opinion shifted in the wake of the "Alaska Summit," which took place on August 15. One notable change: approval of Donald Trump has increased considerably from its all-time low at the beginning of the month.

Found this mug commemorating Kyiv’s 1500 anniversary (1982) in a thrift shop in Tartu, 🇪🇪!

So Putin gets a red carpet welcome, a ride in the presidential limo, speaks first at the presser, frames the meeting as a successful talk among equals, while making absolutely no concession on the conduct or outcome of the war.

'The world is behaving irrationally' - Putin's warm welcome in Alaska gets cold reaction in Ukraine

As the Trump-Putin meeting draws near, it's worth pointing out that although support for negotiations has been increasing steadily in Russia (see linked 🧵), Russians still want to keep the territories Russia already annexed & oust Zelenskyy - hardly a compromising position.

Yup. that’s why I ended my piece that’s out today with this: “Trump already fooled us into this hope twice—once after the talks in Saudi Arabia in February and a second time in July, when he imposed this deadline. If he does it a third time, the shame will be on all of us.”

Check out my latest piece on the recent protests in Ukraine 🇺🇦. Includes some interesting figures based on surveys about corruption perceptions in Ukraine from 2015-24.

"Ru will insist it is prepared to have a ceasefire, but (only) under the conditions that it has formulated for the last two or three years" Can we stop with the idiotic euphemisms? Ru’s conditions are Ukrainian surrender. Ru wants to win without continuing to fight. apple.news/ADU72OUGXQX6...

🤡 Putin says his ultimatum to Ukraine from 2024 has not changed

Russian state media published an article titled: “No other option: no one should remain alive in Ukraine.” This is how Russia claims to want peace. ria.ru/20250730/ukr...

News: Ukraine’s parliament voted to restore the independence of the country’s anti-corruption agencies, reversing a push to place them under the authority of a presidential appointee that triggered rare wartime protests and criticism from western partners. www.ft.com/content/0289...

Russia’s Justice Ministry has added Patriot, the posthumous memoir of opposition politician Alexey Navalny, to its list of banned “extremist” materials. meduza.io/en/news/2025...

How will the Romanian far right (especially AUR and George Simion) interfere in Moldova's elections? A couple of major directions to pay attention to. First, by having allies running directly for seats. An example: the Democracy at Home Party (PDA), run by Simion ally ...

Spotted this highly evocative scene while crossing the border from Romania into Zakarpattia, Ukraine, last week. A sad symbol of the shameful US withdrawal from global affairs.

On one of the most unbelievable satellite images I've ever seen, showing hundreds of Palestinians surrounding aid trucks north of Rafah. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/29/w...

Trump’s rating in Russia just keeps going down… this is the lowest approval rating we’ve ever recorded as part of Russia Watcher. (We started tracking this stat daily in April 2024.)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will urge European partners to help fund higher wages for his soldiers fighting Russia’s invasion, in a renewed effort to bolster military recruitment amid growing fatigue in the war-torn country. www.ft.com/content/5483...

Please join me tomorrow at noon for a conversation on all things Putin, Russia, and Trump with the wonderful Mark Beissinger. Sign-up link here: www.crowdcast.io/c/civicforum...

What is authoritarian backscratching – and why is this a threat? Quid pro quo policies help authoritarian regimes stay in power. We break it down here: goodauthority.org/news/what-is...

Just published in @goodauth.bsky.social: my piece on what I call “authoritarian backscratching” - quid-pro-quo policies between dictators - and how it helps authoritarian regimes survive. goodauthority.org/news/what-is...

⚡️Fire engulfs iconic Odesa market amid Russian attack. A Russian drone attack on Odesa damaged residential buildings, a gas station, and the city's Pryvoz market overnight on July 24.

"Shame!" shouted many Ukrainian lawmakers as a majority formed from Zelensky's ruling party, pro-Russian oppo bloc & Yulia Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna voted to, in effect, dismantle Ukraine's independent anticorruption institutions. My story on a grim day: www.ft.com/content/21cf...

Huge wave of repression in Iran following the bombing campaign time.com/7298282/iran...

Friday night (science) massacre

A headline like this would have seemed unthinkable a month ago

💙💛 Where the kids were taken by Russia #BringKidsBackUK

@marchvidkjaer.bsky.social has been through hell — an ordeal he discusses with painful clarity and eloquence in his latest blog post. I wish him the speediest of recoveries — not least because he is my friend (and also an incredible political scientist)! open.substack.com/pub/marchvid...

❗️ Sunbathing with the enemy: Meet the Kremlin propagandists who vacation in Europe despite demonizing the West on air A new @ezhovs.bsky.social investigation finds 70 of Putin’s propagandists remain unsanctioned, freely traveling to the "russophobic" West.

I've been teaching at Princeton over the same period and the drop-off in reading stamina has been staggering. I'm not sure of the cause -- some blame K-12 shifts to "chunk reading" while others pin it on COVID -- but it's undeniable.

Worth also noting that in my experience polls tend to be biased pro-Pas/ Sandu