an extremely online account is posting very stupid bait and i am once again resisting the call. sorry/yw

there is more between heaven and earth than fits into your philosophy... but tbh you've got like 97% of the variation in that two stick figure philosophy, it's pretty decent

I didn't give enough of a shit to read this skeet because then there would be one more person who wasted time reading it

the end of all things: organic, but at what cost

existence of dashboard implies existence of emdashboard

"a C-player is a person whose mistakes are always wasted" is a great insight. what else might we learn from mr beast? #linklog

whenever I see an economist not writing about space,

existence of circle back implies existence of square front

new liver, same eagle

taking VC money is costly

"is a feasible estimator actually different from the thing it asymptotically approaches" and other controversial questions

uploading a dataset of texts from the next few months to HF. for training purposes only

among the small mercies: econ profs have pretty consistently been good on the "our doctrine actually means something to us" front

if AI gets better in the future, then the tools are currently relatively immature and you should wait till they're better to adopt. work less hard now. if AI doesn't get better in the future, you might as well adopt on your own timeline. let others work out the bugs. work less hard now.

saw bait, didn't bite. feelsgoodman

I don't know what attie is and at this point I'm afraid to ask

mildly amusing that the masculine-coded marxy economist was apparently a less effective negotiator than the feminine-coded neoclassicaly economist

"Like infinite scroll and autoplay, it is inert without the choices of bad actors — choices made by people, not by the platform’s design." I'm sympathetic but also not? Choice sets shape choices and some of the smartest behavioral scientists and engineers are paid a lot to shape for engagement

the governance by groupchat era

would be very interested in a little model trained on writing up to year Y define neoliberalism, for Y to today, to see how the definition changes

starlink does a good job of following orbital sustainability practices starship will not reduce average flight prices to LEO

spend enough time with the shoggoths and you see their marks everywhere. this isn't just theoretical --

continuing to not like shrimp, as is my Constitutional right

me: "this review seems to be for the wrong paper" editor: "i understand your concerns, suggest to reply to the reviewer" ??????

existence of open source implies existence of open sink

on track for the Great AI Boyfriend Panic of 2027 @tedunderwood.com

the platonic method is when you hypothesize an ideal student who already knows the material

commercial innovation will fix this

"our alpha comes from finding exceptional people, which is why I would simply regularize our hiring towards median preferences" weird flex but ok

how funny would it be if synth response polls end up being better predictors of voting behavior than bio response polls. gotta be at least top five cosmic polling jokes for the decade

existence of impulse response implies existence of impulse call

any macroheads seeing this have strong feelings about capacity utilization and inflation?

I don't know if I agree with this yet but it's easy to see the appeal #linklog

I'm very skeptical that world models are going to work for businesses as they actually are. maybe some can be made to fit the bed. maybe new kinds of org are more legible. right now I see a mix of persistence and value in organizational pockets and low marginal product mimicry by other pockets/orgs

TIL about the concept of a NAICU. didn't know that was a thing. these days it doesn't seem like people use capacity utilization as a slack measure as much as employment-based things?

now i see the full picture

it is indeed very good that there are open models. their training is still often opaque; what might they be optimized for? there are enough economists and behavioral scientists in tech that I could imagine an open model that somehow maximizes a profit function #linklog

existence of wargame implies existence of warsport

I have a joke about markets. What'll you pay to hear it?

good post, recommend the last line suggests the only effect is a PE shock to the supply of once-costly skills. what might the GE demand effects look like?

then i will face god and walk backwards into buying gold

The Yuddites don't want you to know this, but you can train an LLM to predict what xrisk scenario you'll predict next

existence of thermonuclear implies existence of electronuclear

I may not be a teacher anymore but I guess I'm still a smartsgiver

major revision, they say here are detailed comments, they say in your response explain how you addressed each reviewer's concerns they say the reviewer's comments? "this is underdeveloped and needs better empirical grounding" (it's a theory paper)

1m context is just nuts

Abiding in the midst of ignorance, thinking themselves wise and learned, fools go aimlessly hither and thither

OLS is AI; I see no beneficial uses for synthetic regressors

the only thing preventing equilibrium in the market is the supply side not selling at the prevailing price. the market is cleared should suppliers just sell now.

an anthropomorphism is a continuous, bijective function f: nonhuman -> human