A few words on survey weights, why I'm embarrassed to have forgotten to take them into account in the past, and how I got lucky because I personally didn't get burned. Not a mistake I intend to repeat in the future blog.djnavarro.net/posts/2025-0...

everyone give your answers

Disappointed with how many of you nerds didn't get the reference. This was good.

Good excuse to share this

Correct

Did Halsey act stupidly?

Not wrong

Odds ratios are the worst

Guy on the bus is wearing a Costco shirt. Respect.

The Pink Book of #MarginalEffects (aka Model to Meaning) ships next week and I've got a backlog of Zoolander memes. Hope you're hungry for some spam in your timeline. #RStats #PyData

Help out, nerds. An interesting question for which an understanding of scientific/academic publishing would be beneficial

My only complaint is that we will be forced to speak of this matter again.

Saw a guy today who looked like Dewey Crowe. I started laughing to myself thinking about Dewey's four kidneys.

As usual, Danielle is correct. The end of a good thread. Read the whole thing.

Just spending a Friday night exploring the intricacies of various smooths. Found this bit from Simon wood which gives a succinct overview of tensor product vs thin plate smooths. webhomes.maths.ed.ac.uk/~swood34/mgc...

Playlists ruined mixtapes

Fantastic movie

WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE?!?

Are you going to take that, Bayesians?

Winner

Winner

Worcestershire sauce. Only barbarians pronounce it correctly

Interesting thread, and not about what you'd initially expect.

Whoa—my book is up for pre-order! 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity. tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8

MC Stan is here! Follow for the latest Stan news, and tag if you want us to repost your posts about new papers, packages, courses, etc. about Stan

When he's right he's right

Not all heroes wear capes, etc.

And both are better than New York-style

Me, every time I read a post on social media

A really neat paper thinking through what "Identifiability" means, how we can determine it, and implications for modeling. Arxiv: arxiv.org/abs/2508.18853 #statssky #mlsky

Monty Hall reminder: the only good reason to want the car is to sell it for more goats.

Thunderbolts* Thunderheart Thunderball

Anyone familiar with robust regression for heavy-tailed residuals? Seems there are many alternatives. The only method I've learned is Bayesian regression with regularizing priors (from @rmcelreath.bsky.social book) and for the moment I want a frequentist alternative (sorry Bayesians) #stats #rstats

Very informative preprint written by several leading causal inference authors that addresses 12 current issues in the field. arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099

Qt with your weekend plans

Got this same ad at the beginning of the music video for "Soda Pop" when turning it on for the kid

PyMC people: Is there a way to implement a weighted formulation of a discrete count likelihood like the poisson, discrete weibull, etc? In Stan I'd typically do this via something like for(n in 1:N) target += ({function}(args...) * weights[n]);

Quite the headline. www.cbc.ca/radio/asitha...

All the dads at this practice are wearing pants that look like they're one size too big. I am truly among my people.

New paper out with @boryslaw.bsky.social 🥳 In which we sketch out how to rethink measurement invariance causally for applied researchers. And provide a causal definition of measurement invariance! www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

brms Bat signal.

Youtube: would you like an AI slop video? Me: No. Youtube: this one is about people being mean to an old man and then getting their comeuppance. Me: No. Youtube: this movie recap with an AI voiceover? Me: No. Youtube: This AI-generated movie trailer? Me: No. Youtube: this one? Me: just stop

I could have sworn I created this before on our Previous Parish, but couldn't find it so made it fresh. I present: OUR BLESSED mixed models // THEIR BARBAROUS fixed effects

This is amazing!! For the curious reader, I must plug: doi.org/10.1017/pan....

It’s been a little overshadowed by the slightly unexpected mental health issues that hit me very hard yesterday afternoon, but for what it’s worth here’s the GAMLSS regression post I’ve been working on for the past month #rstats blog.djnavarro.net/posts/2025-0...