What does mentorship when you are old enough/far enough in your career to be someone else’s mentor?

I really want a prior, but my team's experiment results are not exchangeable: We do the easy stuff first, get big effects, then tackle the harder or more risky stuff and get small effects. The sequence of effects is not exchangeable so a hierarchical model can be fit, but maybe won't be accurate.

Oh you guys are talking about the sport and not the emo band?

There are some days where I want to work to be promoted to staff, and some days where I want to eat a plate of nachos in my underwear and never think about tech again

Data cleaning, but make it targets-esque dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...

Man I wish I had a prior. I could... * Compute average power * Shrink estimates to combat Type S/M errors * Understand the extent to which I would exaggerate results as a function of alpha * Simulate to forecast my impacts across future experiments Oh what a wonderful thing a prior would be

Fuckin thought Buck Martinez died. Holy shit Sportsnet

"Nice shot!" Me, as the commentators tell me Canada made a nice shot in mixed doubles curling

Death Camp For Cutie over here

Eating with chopsticks b/c chipped tooth (it is repaired) makes me afraid of forks, and you know what? We should use chopsticks for other types of food

Unironically, I love watching curling.

Dentists booking before 8 am? No wonder they have a high… a forget it.

Chipped a tooth doing an incredible risky thing: chewing. IS THIS GETTING OLDER? IT SUCKS!

Suppose I am making a normal approximation to my posterior. Under what circumstances might I want the Jacobian adjustment? Under what circumstances might I not?

Man, I dislike academic writing. There are a handful of authors I like reading (Gelman is one of them, quel surprise), but "reading the literature" sounds less preferable than perhaps a short walk over some legos. This not to mention writing academic papers, which is akin to a longer walk

In how many ways can I say "The analysis you've proposed makes no sense, please lose my email"

I could never run a company.

New imputation method just dropped

Why is my entire career just trying to get people to partially pool estimates

I’ve never really been so much an academic as I have been a curator of interesting takes.

On my mind right now: How can I regularize conditional treatment estimates to cut down on false positives while also preventing users from saying "THE NUMBERS DON'T MATCH THE DATA" -- Thank you, that was my intention actually

Nevermind the jobs you had, tell me five classes you took at university Politics of the environment Epistemology History of analytic philosophy Classical mechanics Introduction to story telling

My "I will escape tech" day dreams have been time well spent

Catherine O’Hara has died at the age of 71, TMZ reports. (www.tmz.com/2026/01/30/c...)

Though vibe coding has seem to become a thing, vibe (data) science worries me a little. You know when something isn't right in your vibe coded app. Will you, or Claude, know when you've misspecified the model? When you can't identify an effect of interest? The answer could very well be "Yes"

Don’t know who needs to hear this, but throwing a theory paper in my fave is about 10x less effective than just simulating stuff. Simulation + theory is how I believe you.

Now playing

Ok so counting calories actually works. I was wrong, and I will admit that.

The "I was just following orders" argument? Wonder how that played out in the past

Note to self: Powell optimizer is not deterministic. Woof, that was scary

Nice

Man I don’t know what the fuck it is but it feels like I can’t get a grip on A) talking to customers, and B) drip feeding instructions from stakeholders

What the hell happened to Youtube? Listicles in video form ("Rating grilled cheese recipes") The most banal titles and video topics ("The rise and fall of X", "The X of Y") Slop aside, terrible shorts ("Did you know that", or summarizing some other youtuber's video) What a wasteland

Can...can hex visualizations not accomodate error bars? That seems limiting

AGAIN!

Bluesky in a nutshell

I'm too smart to think I am smart enough to make money on options, but WOW some of those positions on /r/wallstreetbets are crazy

Why the fuck is payroll so hard for companies, you only do it every 2 weeks?

Since defending my PhD, I feel like my brain has just tired out. I want instruction as opposed to be the leader in projects because solving anything but an immediate and well defined problem just feels so large in scope. Makes me want to quit. What does that say about me

Now Jammin' to open.spotify.com/track/7gITA1...

Not me: - avoiding market news - deleting bluesky and reddit from my phone - visiting bluesky only quickly enough to make this post - living in happily in ignorance

Didn’t Comey walk away from his charges? There is hope

On one hand, stay the course and "this time it is different" is usually wrong. On the other, freak the fuck out and panic sell

PUTS and I guarantee some ass holes had this information Friday and bet against the market, enriching themselves

My top use case for AI (outside coding) is keeping one publicly accessible doc and then connecting various systems to that doc. - Update our confluence doc with progress - Create JIRA tickets for new work - Schedule meeting at this time And orgs are _dead set_ on making this impossible for me.

Going to start doing some PMing at work. Seems like larger organizations really love when senior people have this kind of skill. Part of the reason I've biased for mid-sized/smaller companies. I just don't like doing it.

My bench as always struggled due to: poor eating habits, latent shoulder weakness. Addressing one helped, addressing both has let me feel about as strong as I did when I first took up lifting.

I JUST POSTED ABOUT THIS IDEA

"Proxy metrics" are all the rage in A/B testing -- but I have this sneaking suspicion that, for certain types of metrics, Bayesian survival analysis could be just as good. However, I'm too damned tired to write this blog

The timeline is crystal clear and the facts are not debatable. The killer walks by the victim's car, unbothered by her while filming another observer and ICE vehicles pass by. 12 seconds later he murders Renee Good. Unprovoked murder of an innocent mother. Don't believe or repeat the lies.