Auch wenn es immer wieder suggeriert wird: Arm zu sein, ein geringes Einkommen zu haben, hängt nur schwach mit einer höheren Wahrscheinlichkeit zusammen, die AfD zu wählen. Die Unterschiede nach formalen Bildungsabschlüssen sind im Vergleich zu den Einkommensunterschieden deutlich größer. 1/3

Schachmatt Politikwissenschaft

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Sind Haustürgespräche effektiver, wenn sie stärker auf Dialog und Austausch setzen? Heute Abend stelle ich im Grünen Salon die Ergebnisse eines Feldexperiments mit den @gruenemitte.bsky.social zu dieser Frage vor. Kommt gern vorbei! gruene-mitte.de/termine/grue...

Crazy as it may seem, I have a new coworker who makes the bold claim that “left” and “right” mean different things to different people

Zustimmung zu Hamburgs Olympia-Bewerbung korreliert vor allem mit der sozioökonomischen Lage eines Stadtteils. In Stadtteilen mit hohem Einkommen, hoher Gymnasialquote und niedriger Arbeitslosigkeit liegt der Anteil an Ja-Stimmen im Schnitt deutlich höher.

Sorry Claude

New preprint: Jack Lucas, @breunig.eurosky.social and I reanalyze 70,470 assessments made by 12,860 politicians about their constituents' public opinion and demographics, sourced from every available published study of elite perceptual accuracy, and our own original data. /1 osf.io/preprints/ps...

'The (forgotten) atomistic fallacy in political science and its implications for how we interpret elections': delighted our new research note with Tim Vlandas is just published in one of my favourite Political Science journals @ejprjournal.bsky.social: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Similar patterns in the most recent election in Rhineland-Palatinate. Places that shifted strongly to the AfD have a higher share of workers in manufacturing and with vocational education. In contrast, gains were much smaller in regions with tertiary labor markets & more university graduates.

5️⃣ thoughts that capture Henrik Enderlein’s vision: forward-looking, European, and deeply committed to better governance in an interconnected world. On the 5️⃣th anniversary of his passing, he remains deeply missed. Our thoughts are with his family and loved ones today.

@charlottekuberka.bsky.social and I are organizing a football match during EPSS in Belfast! ⚽️ If you are interested please fill out the form by Friday: forms.gle/PwYoedqu7NzF... All skill levels are welcome! Email/DM us if you have any questions. And please spread the word!

The best explanation for why Catholics don’t vote for the AfD is that they vote for the CDU

In most advanced democracies, newer generations and younger citizens are less likely to vote. In this new paper, Thomas Jocker (@uva.nl) and I ask *why* this is the case. We try to answer this question by analyzing the answers that *non-voters themselves* give to this question 👇

Huge, if true 👇

Okay, so the best way to counter far-right in rural Germany is just converting everyone to Catholicism?

New paper w/ @lstoetze.bsky.social "Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls" out in @polanalysis.bsky.social 👀 When your outcomes are compositional (such as vote shares), applying synthetic controls separately to each part can break the math. We show how to fix it: 🧵

I spent way too long this weekend correlating 81 census variables with local election results, so you don't have to. Enjoy! datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QQQ3D/7/

77 years ago today, on 23 May 1949, the German Grundgesetz entered into force. Before becoming the constitutional foundation of modern Germany, it had to cross two crucial hurdles. 🧵

🚨 Stellenausschreibung 🚨 Promotionsstelle zu Parteien in ländlich-peripheren Räumen (4 Jahre, 75 %) Das Projekt verbindet qualitative Interviews, die Analyse lokaler Parteistrukturen und Inhaltsanalysen von Wahlprogrammen. 🗓️ Bewerbungsschluss: 31.05.2026 www.uni-greifswald.de/universitaet...

Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/many

Wollte kurz sagen dass Nagelsmann auch mich gefragt hat wegen DfB Tor aber meinte kann grad nicht wegen Diss und er soll lieber Neuer nehmen

Had a great time at the PoBI CIVICA conference, presenting first results on the place-based effects of (green?) industrial policies, hosted by Bocconi. Besides thinking about great comments, I am still wondering why this place appears to have its own little parliament.

My full Substack piece on this, with figures and tables comparing the 2021 and 2026 elections in Scotland and Wales is here: substack.com/home/post/p-...

NEW: What exactly happened in the local and devolved elections in England, Scotland and Wales last week? @persuasionuk.bsky.social has some new polling out today which offers a first glimpse. Thread here on top line findings from each nation. 🧵

“Breaking News: Survey discovers respondents enjoy sounding pro-social at negligible personal cost”

based and weimarpilled

this summer, it's time for weimar maxxing

Join us for a panel on party strategies in Germany’s 2026 super election year! 🗓️ 29 May 2026, 2–4 PM 📍 Senatssaal, HU Berlin 💬 Research insights + roundtable with guests from politics and civil society. Reception & networking afterwards. 🗣️ In German More info & sign-up: hu-govlab.de/events/

The "good people of Gegenbach" are complicating my causal identification strategy 😠

New day of having a Weimar Republic paper idea and realizing my treatment timeline coincides with tiny historical inconveniences like the Treaty of Versailles, the Great Depression, a monarchist coup, a Nazi coup, mass political violence, the Ruhr occupation and resistance to the Ruhr occupation

What drives legislators' emotional engagement with climate issues? I explore the role of their age and party affiliation and over-time developments in a new research note in European Journal of Political Research. (a thread)

I was today years old when I found out on TikTok that you can just completely make up political maps yourself

This was a lot of fun (even though we couldn't save Timmy 🐋)

On 7 May 2026, Britain ran a PR experiment: Scottish Parliament: a Mixed-Member Proportional system Welsh Senedd: a (new) Low-Magnitude Party List system Same day, same political context, different outcomes. Which version of PR would be better for Westminster? 🧵

🗺️ Electoral Atlas of the Spanish Second Republic (1931-1936) Today we are publishing, in beta version and as a first phase (1936 only), the database so everyone can explore it 👇 tonirodon.cat/second-repub... (1/n)

@christinastremming.bsky.social and I are very happy to present our paper on party reactions to external shocks. Main findings : Foreign policy events restructure party politics! You can find the full paper here: doi.org/10.1080/0964... More details below.

Hier bei Bluesky ist ja meistens noch ganz nett und recht gemütlich. Aber Linke sollten auch dahin gehen, wo‘s wehtut und nicht nur Selbstgespräche führen, findet die meinungsstarke @taz.de Kollegin @paulinejaeckels.bsky.social

Diese Welt ist kalt 🚬

Looks like an absolute banger www.nber.org/papers/w35120

Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇

The result is a non-trivial decrease in the share of candidates with immigrant backgrounds and no change in the share of sexual minority candidates. Big differences emerge between parties on the left and right. The left increases the share of immigrant-background candidates and the right decreases

Does far-right legislative representation change the descriptive make-up of candidate lists among mainstream parties? Using a RDD with registry data from Sweden, this paper led by @grahn.bsky.social provides an answer doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

Ich denke, dass Parteien auf Social Media 1) mobilisieren, 2) überzeugen und 3) Sichtbarkeit für die eigenen Positionen schaffen wollen. Für all diese Ziele braucht es Reichweite – auf die man nun bewusst verzichtet und die auf Bluesky (Stand jetzt) einfach geringer ist.

🚨 Coming soon: “The Political Economy of Public Bureaucracy” 🚨 My book is forthcoming in 2026 with @universitypress.cambridge.org. A preview of the cover art is below. Thanks to D. Carpenter, @sean-gailmard.bsky.social, and J. Gingrich for their endorsements! 🙏 More detailed info in the future. 😊

Sehr gut, dass Parteien auch andere soziale Medien in Betracht ziehen. Ob „politische Debatten, die vom Austausch leben, Menschen erreichen und informieren“ hier so viel besser funktionieren, darf man natürlich bezweifeln.

Da Timmy jetzt gerettet ist, hat es eigentlich keinen Sinn mehr diese Woche zum AK Walen nach Mainz zu fahren

Bewerbungsschluss morgen: Im Projekt "Knowledge, Epistemic Marginalization, and the Politics of Resentment" (Co-PI: Joachim Blatter) gibt es eine Postdocstelle an der Uni Bremen. Vertragsdauer: 3,5 Jahre Stelle: 100% Bewerbung: Bis 05.05. Stellenausschreibung: www.uni-bremen.de/universitaet...

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