NEW! Combining my two obsessions of cycling and political economy data into a new Substack: Tour de Data. Daily posts for every stage of the Tour de France, digging into what the race tells us about money, place, and power. Not just who's in yellow;) 🚴📊 tourdedata.substack.com

Do far-right parties gain electoral support by embedding their members in sports clubs, cultural societies and volunteer fire brigades? Excited to present my research on far-right infiltration of civil society at #EPSS2026 tomorrow! 🗓️ Saturday, 3:20 - 5:00 pm 📍Broadway (Hilton)

Es ist zum kotzen. Rechte und Rechtsradikale „feiern“ im Europaparlament das Abschiebegesetz mit Sprechchören: „Send them back“. E Mittendrin: Manfred Weber.

Just arrived in Belfast for this years #EPSS conference. Quite exited to ingest as much cool polsci research as possible over the next couple of days. I’m presenting results from a field experiment about the effects of partisan listening-campaigns on Panel EL03 on Friday.

Was Umfragen nur schlecht aufzeigen können und auch Wählerstromanalysen nur selten schätzen, ist die Anzahl Wählender, die seit der letzten Wahl verstorben sind. 2021 wurde das in BaWü und 2018 in Bayern erhoben. In BaWü sehen wir, dass 11x mehr SPD-Wählende verstorben sind als zur AfD wechselten.

Sind Haustürgespräche effektiver, wenn sie stärker auf Dialog und Austausch setzen? Heute Abend stelle ich im Grünen Salon die Ergebnisse eines Feldexperiments mit den @gruenemitte.bsky.social zu dieser Frage vor. Kommt gern vorbei! gruene-mitte.de/termine/grue...

I wrote about immigration policy in Britain this week. Britain has shut the door on the most economically desirable kind of migrant. www.economist.com/britain/2026...

🚨 Stellenausschreibung 🚨 Promotionsstelle zu Parteien in ländlich-peripheren Räumen (4 Jahre, 75 %) Das Projekt verbindet qualitative Interviews, die Analyse lokaler Parteistrukturen und Inhaltsanalysen von Wahlprogrammen. 🗓️ Bewerbungsschluss: 31.05.2026 www.uni-greifswald.de/universitaet...

Early in my PhD, a colleague finishing his (highly rated) dissertation told me he was stuck on the introduction. After years of hard work, he could no longer find an argument for why any of it actually mattered. This stuck with me ever since. A🧵 about this paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Was übrigens gerade wieder passiert (wie auch bei der Ampel): die Regierung verliert die eigenen Leute.

Sharing a video based on my recent @sociologicalsci.bsky.social article: youtu.be/5OAXBmBmQEY. The prominent finding that U.S. policy ignores average citizens and lower income groups results because of Simpson’s paradox. More here: medium.com/p/b60d0440e756.

Wenn der Eskapismus vor sich selbst flieht.

Endlich, die Daten aus der repräsentativen Walstatistik sind da!

For months, Germany has been controversially debating the return of military conscription. But who actually supports it? And more importantly, why? Here are some insights based on a representative survey from last autumn. A thread 🧵 www.bbc.com/news/article...

Stop the count

How does coalition participation influence party [email protected] @michaelimre.bsky.social and I find that junior coalition partners lose more members than parties that govern alone, and an increasing ideol. diversity within the cabinet is related to a decreasing number of members.

Laschet bisschen sauer heute Morgen Im DLF share.deutschlandradio.de/dlf-audiothe...

Colleagues, @svenhegewald.bsky.social and I are looking for a student assistant (30-40h/month, remote work possible) in my ERC project RESPOL @politikuhh.bsky.social @uni-hamburg.de. Please let your most talented students know. 😀🙏

🚨 New paper with great co-authors (@oguzhan-alkan.bsky.social @rdassonneville.bsky.social @zeynsom.bsky.social) in Political Behavior! How well do citizens perceive where parties stand? 🤔 Open access: rdcu.be/fb83Z

Ggf hat er den Fehler gemacht die Antworten bei der offenen Frage “Gibt es sonst noch etwas was Sie uns mitteilen wollen” zu lesen.

Wahrscheinlich wegen der niedrigen Trefferquote.

🦅 🦅 🦅

🚨 Just shipped a major update to GERDA, the German Election Database. - State elections update: new years + mail-in - 3 new election types: Mayoral, County, European - Municipal elections: 1984-2025 - Meinungsbild public opinion - New website & features german-elections.com

Finde es ziemlich merkwürdig in solchen Zeiten über derartig nebensächliche Themen zu schreiben. Wichtige Themen wie der Wal auf der Sandbank und der Wolf in der Einkaufspassage schaffen es leider wieder nicht auf die Titelseite. Traurig.

The far right failed to win big in France’s municipal elections. But that’s not good news for the country’s left wing. Despite the lack of showy results, the right consolidated its momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential race, argues @cfieschi.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Auf eine Sandbank legen zu Strafe

Every time I start cooking up something cool on Qualtrics, it hits me with this

Turns out sorting below the threshold is quite hard

Yeah I’m not sure

I love this

I've been waiting all year to finally drop this pun in class and tomorrow is finally the day

Try this out if you like swiping things and discovering new papers 👇

Respekt und Applaus für die Airline Vueling, die diese geniale Kombination aus Farb- und numerischer Skala erfunden hat.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It's ironic to see a discipline care **so much** about unbiasedness (causal inference!) at the level of a single test but then have a research production system and culture that is basically a ferocious bias generation machine. This is not good.

The Prime Minister of Belgium speaks:

📣 Call for Papers: 🗓️ 23-24 April 2026 at LSE Submit full papers: forms.office.com/e/9qVWeNTK0p Please share with colleagues & early-career researchers!

🚨 Please send in your application by 10 December to be considered for this ESRC studentship in collaboration with @campaign-lab.bsky.social. Both home and international students are eligible for funding. Some advice on how to apply below 👇

By means of sophisticated Habsburgian relationship policy, I finally managed to acquire an EUI affiliation on top of the LSE one.

Quite alright

Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵

Lass mich raten: "Trick or Treat: Children’s Halloween Door-Knocking as a Strategy of Door-to-Door Canvassing" 🎃

Fieldwork

I ran a simulated social media experiment with 1450 Republicans to test different fact-checking interventions. AI produced the largest decrease in engagement with Trump misinformation, outperforming independent fact-checkers and doing so far more consistently than Community Notes.

Now out in Party Politics 🎉 Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing. 👉 A legitimisation effect. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Matching designs be like... @antonkoenneke.de

To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?

25 Jahre nach dem Sturz Miloševićs protestieren die Menschen in Serbien gegen seinen Ex-Informationsminister Aleksandar Vučić und fordern Neuwahlen. Wir sprechen über Parallelen, Unterschiede – und warum die alten Milošević-Kader wieder an der Macht sind. ballaballa-balkan.de/episode/gesc...

Have already been asked “who’s Comrade Adenauer” by @lenmetson.com