Turns out sorting below the threshold is quite hard

HOPE not hate stands in solidarity with Jewish communities in Golders Green and around the country after last night's arson attack.

This cool website tracks and collates union wins & achievements (partially) through automated means - fun to browse & could make for a really interesting dataset! watcha.site

The call for papers for #EPOP2026 in Liverpool (17–19 September) is now open! We welcome submissions across all areas of research on elections, public opinion and parties. Deadline: 26 April Submit your proposals here: www.liverpool.ac.uk/politics/eve... @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social

As @bwalker.uk points out at the other place, progressives being undecided until late *could* be coming up in polls as they will be Don't Knows and will need squeezing for vote intention. We already know that DKs look quite a bit like Labour voters in policy views. So an undercount on the left?

Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk. 1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens. 2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s 3. Progressives were undecided til last minute www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

In 2024, 744 parties competed in the Indian general election, 10 times as many as in the UK. Yet we describe both as 2-party systems. Why? My new post explains how to count like a political scientist: using the *effective* number of parties. jack-bailey.co.uk/blog/what-is...

A headline in the Times was inaccurate and they have issued this correction: “YouGov is not making changes to its methodology or to any previously published results. We are happy to make this clear” We are not changing our methodology or results, which accurately predicted Reform's vote at GE2024

If I had to guess (always a bad idea) I suspect there would be changes to the freedom of expression and freedom of association components following on from the Public Order Act 2023 and use of the proscription powers under the Terrorism Act (2/2)

The UK decline (shown below) is particularly marked. It's surprising to see a decline to below levels of the 1970s, when there was (for example) internment without trial in parts of the UK (1/2)

A bit of data science, a bit of social history, what more could you ask for? Another excellent blog by @laurenleek.eu open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...

Oh no, someone left the testing constituency in!

New w/@scottclifford.bsky.social. Lots of work uses agree-disagree scales, and a lit review shows these are 1) frequently just measured in one direction (agree = higher trait) and 2) correlated with each other. This has potentially big issues for conclusions. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

This is really worth reading, not least as it highlights how the 'Hero Voter' idea has been twisted beyond all recognition in most commentary and Westminster briefing.

As Maria Sobolewska and I first said in Brexitland, the legacy parties under FPP are like Tinkerbell - they need belief to survive. if people cease to believe they see the best and only options, they can die fast. Is this the moment Labour’s Tinkerbell dies?

Well, no, they’re not just as wrong. The bigger error is not seeing that “trying to win over voters from a party on the opposite end of the spectrum, whose values your core voters oppose” is not same as “chasing voters from party on same side ideologically whose values your core voters like.”

Here's a table in the new @britishelectionstudy.com book (forthcoming). We calculated 'second preferences' - here Labour voters after elections 2015 to 2024. 50% of Labour's 2024 voters had Greens as second preference. 42% the Lib Dems. The left bloc is coalescing behind the most viable left party!

Labour should have focused the campaign more on what voters really care about: the licensing terms of critical national geospatial datasets.

Maybe Matt Goodwin is just conducting the mother of all ethnographies

📣 Call for Papers: 🗓️ 23-24 April 2026 at LSE Submit full papers: forms.office.com/e/9qVWeNTK0p Please share with colleagues & early-career researchers!

📣 Call for Papers: 🗓️ 23-24 April 2026 at LSE Submit full papers: forms.office.com/e/9qVWeNTK0p Please share with colleagues & early-career researchers!

Bear with as I connect this API to my WhatsApp naas.isalman.dev/no

Live scenes from the England Cricket Board meeting on Monday

Online political discussions are characterized by a minority of users dominate the discussion, while most remain silent. Those who perceived a discussion as toxic/polarized tend to remain silent: But toxicity engages power users (namely men interested in politics) www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

This is very cool, and amazing data! Looking forward to reading the report in full later

Absolutely amazing chart from @peterkellner.bsky.social's piece in @thenewworldmag.bsky.social today: www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...

I wanted dinner recommendations so I scraped 13,000+ London restaurants and accidentally discovered Google Maps is running a shadow economy. Anyway here's a dashboard and a political economy thesis: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...

🚪Research suggests that the idea that voters are more persuaded by people who look or sound like them is a myth. In our new blog post we break down the evidence that demographics matter much less than the content of the conversation. campaignlab.uk/project/do-s...

🚨Data Update 🚨 We have released an updated version of our panel data. This version includes a correction to our p_ethnicity variables, which affected 7.8% of our respondents. There is also a very small correction to our geographic variables. More ⬇️ www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...

A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168

Also the reply then should not be: let's do observational. No, the reply then should be: let's do field experiments. ;)

I don't read the criticism as saying "survey experiments are bad", more, "this is an unbalanced diet"

Whilst survey experiments are useful (and clearly popular), their proliferation is a bit troubling in light of papers like Carnes and Henderson (2025) - especially when studying questions where results (should) directly inform practice in "the field" www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Only a few days left to apply for this fully-funded collaborative PhD with @lsegovernment.bsky.social and @campaign-lab.bsky.social! It's a pretty unique position sat right between academia and "real world" campaigns - please share with someone who might be interested (and/or apply)!

Could not recommend this highly enough - LSE is a great place to be doing a PhD, and Campaign Lab are a fantastic organisation to collaborate with - More than happy to talk to anyone thinking of applying!

Political scientists love their survey experiments.

Or you can also get in touch with some of our current PhD students who work on related questions (and are on BlueSky) @lenmetson.com @isoldehegemann.bsky.social @antonkoenneke.de @benghix.bsky.social

🚨 Please send in your application by 10 December to be considered for this ESRC studentship in collaboration with @campaign-lab.bsky.social. Both home and international students are eligible for funding. Some advice on how to apply below 👇

New report: What should we do about mayoral scrutiny? www.mysociety.org/2025/11/18/m...

The UK outright engaged in stationary banditry, stealing from the poor to give to the rich, all in order to appease the most petty xenophobe bigots on earth. And I feel sure it won't even work on the Home Secretary's terms, ultimately all this will strengthen not weaken Reform.

It becomes overly clear why #MeToo was considered such a threat by powerful men and why they have done everything to mock and discredit it.

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts." Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson! Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...

📄 New WP version out - full overhaul! The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social ) Comments welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...

The crucial bit of this tactical 'only Labour or Reform can win here' VI poll, though, is that Labour and Reform would be tied. Not enough Lib Dem or Green voters are (right now) prepared to tactically vote for Labour to offset the number of Tories willing to tactically vote for Reform.

🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨 Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...