I mean Keynes would be happy so 🤷

Top journal sending an article rejection: You are such a l0ser. Seriously, I have no idea what I ever saw in you. Blocking all your calls/texts. Top journal the next day asking for a review: Hey babe - I love who and what you are. You make me feel incredible. Let's get the magic going✨. xoxo💋

This is basically Acemoglu & Robinson/Meltzer-Richards come to life 👀

The rise and fall of instrumental variables and twoway fixed effects. From: arxiv.org/abs/2501.06873

New BJPS Short Read! Why Does Causal Reasoning Work? Naftali Weinberger, Porter Williams & James Woodward on the role of worldly infrastructure www.thebsps.org/short-reads/... #philsci #philsky

Just to be very clear: The Trump DOJ is stealing $1.2 million of your money to gift one of Trump’s cronies, who pled guilty to the crimes he was charged with, and whose suit against the government had already been tossed by a judge.

Looking forward to presenting my new paper on the use of Agentic RAG for elite network data collection, with an application to the Israeli case, at the APSA Virtual Research Workshop organized by @javierosorio.bsky.social, P. Brandt, V. D'Orazio and L. Khan. eventdata.utdallas.edu/workshops/ap...

Who's gonna tell the author about World War II 😬

It will be interesting if after all the AI hoopla we end up with a single product that generates revenue and it's a coding assistant (powerful, but not exactly AGI...).

Video generation is incredibly expensive computationally. You need a use case with real money to justify it.

Anti-money laundering authorities in Canada have revoked registrations of nearly three dozen cryptocurrency businesses following @thestar.com's reporting for the ICIJ-led #CoinLaundry investigation. Read the latest: buff.ly/3SfBpaz

Talarico is a big concern for the GOP & GOP-friendly evangelicals because they have been pushing the idea that the Democrats are out to get Christians. Talarico is liberal for sure *but* it's tough to argue he's going to persecute Christians when he relies on the Bible for his reasoning.

Unfortunately, during the same time period, support for intermarriage between people who use differences-in-differences and people who use two-way fixed effects has declined substantially

People say these things and it makes me cringe because it makes me wonder what value there is in the papers they write. Granted, academia is in large part a prestige game, at least for some people, so perhaps the inevitable outcome of idolizing prestige--paper mills.

Ok but what's the 0.1%? 🤔 Are there coal hobbyists out there? Dickensian coal stoves in people's houses?

I'm happy to share that I’ve been appointed Professor of Empirical Economics & Data Science at the Technical University of Munich (TUM), Campus Heilbronn. After 9 years abroad, it's great to be back in DE. Looking forward to building a team and working on #CausalAI in this fast-growing ecosystem.

Britain requires solar and heat pumps in new homes, pointing to surging oil/gas prices in latest fossil fuel price shock. The Future Homes Standard takes effect in 2028. www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/i... #energysky

Cool new paper "Tackling Women’s Unemployment: Evidence from an Online Jobs Experiment in Bangladesh" by Mohammad Raied Arman, Anindita Bhattacharjee, Narayan Das, Mohima Gomes, and Sakib Mahmood. Accepted in Economic Development & Cultural Change #EconSky www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

Important new research shows the number of Americans who are neutral about democracy exceeds those who oppose it. These neutrals are NOT inattentive. They are: uninformed, cynical, ambivalent, conditional. @nathumbehav.nature.com Democracy supporters speak out! www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Lots of suspicious trades in oil/equities just ahead of Trump tweets backing off his ultimatum. Sure looks like somebody close to Trump knew he was about to TACO, and exploited that inside information to make huge, instant profits From @pkrugman.bsky.social: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/treason-in...

THANK YOU. ENOUGH OF THIS.

Archaeologists were stunned to discover dozens of typewritten manuscripts wedged into the coffin with statistical tables showing null results from experiments on undergrads

False claims in a widely-cited paper. No corrections. No consequences. Welcome to the Business School. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/24/f...

More than 12,000 Dallas County voters showed up at wrong primary polling place

However, academics reserve the right to play p value roulette with multiple studies.

They knew before the announcement.

When I retired only around 25% of Full Professors in STEM were women. I was proud be one of them, and to support the success of fellow women in STEM through mentoring. This was not an organic process. It took hard work and persistence. And now The Regime is setting us back decades.

Born in the streets. Shouted by millions. Carried on posters and chants. No Thrones. No Crowns. No Dictators. This isn't a slogan. It's a promise. And March 28 is when we deliver. #NoKings2026 social.demcast.com/s/cGaWdYVD

Building affordable housing ➡️ support for funding housing. Nearby homeowners ⬆️ support; renters ⬇️ support. Both are “the policy adjacent”—secondhand recipients & drivers of policy feedback. Forthcoming @ajpseditor.bsky.social ( doi.org/10.1111/ajps...) w/ A. Magazinnik & @msands.bsky.social 1/9

Democrats need to have a plan in place for if/when law enforcement or ICE seizes ballots to prevent them from being counted. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/23/u...

The way you engage in academia is by making arguments & doing research. No, academia is never "neutral." But people do respond to well-reasoned appeals. Intimidation, OTOH, avoids internal inconsistencies but weakens ideologies in the long run--no incentive to respond to critics & improve ideas.

What people have to read on their exam when they are foolish enough to take a stats class with me 😅

The New York Times is getting all social-justice-y 😅

Pretty awesome example of collider bias. Adjusting for whether or not people support Trump (belong to MAGA), 100% of people who support Trump say they support Trump.

The irony is not lost on us.

Famous last words...

Nerd time! :) I mapped every 4-year college in U.S. higher education along two dimensions (institutional resilience & post-college market position) using federal data plus a novel measure of institutional AI exposure I created. Institution search on the front page! kylesaunders.com/university-m...

I don't think the U.S. war is stopping any time soon. I do think, however, that a lot of insiders pocketed some money from shorting the markets

Don’t Do Difference In Differences (DDDID), cheers, guido

The problem with AI-generated writing is that if the purpose is persuasion or communicating an idea then there isn't any reason to expand the prompt. I.e., if your prompt is, "I'd like to take you out for dinner", then you should just write, "I'd like to take you out for dinner", in the email.

Also finding it hard to keep up with new research? I built something to fix this. SciLove — swipe through recent papers in your field. The feed learns from your saves. Also matches you with researchers saving your work back (opt-out if you prefer). www.scilove.app 3,000+ journals, updated daily

They said it couldn't be done! But nothing is impossible with this White House team 💪

The University of North Texas is cutting or consolidating more than 70 academic programs, minors and certificates as it works to close a projected $45 million budget shortfall.

I have a new video showing how to use my elicitcausal app for building/pre-registering causal graphs. I also added a new elicitation mode for handling large numbers of causal variables. App link: causal.wilddata.solutions/app_direct/e... Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVil...

The number of cases of possible tax evasion by big businesses and the ultrawealthy referred to criminal investigators at the IRS has declined steeply in the last year. It’s a dramatic reversal of the Biden-era effort to step up scrutiny of these groups. buff.ly/IzLx9ib

Working from home (WFH) raises fertility rates. Globally 0.3 extra kids per WFH couple, and in the US 0.5 extra kids per WFH couple, from Steven J. Davis, Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, @nickbloom.bsky.social, Katelyn Cranney, Mathias Dolls, and Pablo Zarate www.nber.org/papers/w34963

Attention education researchers @arnoldventures.bsky.social RFP on causal effects of school cell phone bans (cc @alexeble.bsky.social @joshua-goodman.com @andydebarros.bsky.social ) www.arnoldventures.org/evidence-eva...

Fascinating

I wrote it up here, with a picture of a mockingbird, and links to data and code. /2

The near total absence of political life in post-Assad Syria. syrianobserver.com/syrian-actor...