Torsten Slok: "With a steep yield curve, governments are issuing more short‑dated paper.... The consequence is that monetary and fiscal policy have become more tightly linked, because a lower maturity makes government interest expenses more sensitive to central bank rate decisions." #economy

A sobering look from the FT at the UK: The “higher-for-longer” chart. Not a leaderboard to top when growth and investment dynamics are already under pressure. Moreover, the longer the economy faces such high borrowing costs, the greater the risk that they will stay elevated or climb even higher.

Bitcoin and Gold this year. #markets #investing #investors #bitcoin #gold @financialtimes.com

From the @WSJ: “Economic fortunes of low- and high-income Americans are diverging—same pattern happening with companies.” #economy #inequality #divergence #dispersion

Just how good has this year been for investors? In short, great as a rising tide lifted (almost) all boats. Virtually every corner of a diversified portfolio is in the green, ignoring historical correlations. Specifically,… 1 of 2

From @cnbc.com: “A University of Michigan poll published in December shows that high prices remain a pain point for consumers. About 46% blame high prices for poor personal finances — among the highest shares since the series started in the late 1970s.” #economy #inflation #affordability

Gold has been trading above $4,500 for the first time. #economy #markets #gold #investing #investors

Having already weakened substantially in 2025, the dollar limps into the final week with the DXY index depreciating to below 98 again. #economy #markets #dollar #currency

The private credit explosion continues: According to the Financial Times, “private credit firms snapped up nearly 14 times as much consumer debt this year as in 2024, piling into riskier areas such as credit cards and buy now, pay later debt.” This shift raises interesting questions, ... 1 of 4

The U.S. economic data releases continue with consumer confidence figures that illustrate, yet again, a striking disconnect: he sharp divergence between "soft" sentiment data and "hard" metrics of economic activity. ... 1 of 3

The Rise of Geo-Economics Continues: Geo-economics—whereby a mix of geopolitics, national security, and domestic politics exerts a greater influence on economic outcomes than traditional economic and financial factors—has come to the fore in a major way this year. In some cases, the associated...

While on US data, November industrial production beat the consensus forecast, as did capacity utilization. November's IP was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level, the highest growth rate since June. At 70%, capacity utilization was the highest since July. #economy #markets

US Q-3 GDP just shattered expectations at 4.3%—a full point above the consensus My main takeaways from the numbers in this data release: Powerful Twin Engines--Resilient consumer spending has firmly been joined by an AI-led capital expenditure surge. The Catch--Strong growth came with a ... 1 of 2

A calmer day in Japanese markets as the yen recovers, appreciating to 156 per US dollar. Simultaneously, yields have pulled back after yesterday's notable surge, with the benchmark 10-year government bond yield declining from 2.07% to 2.03%. #economy #markets #japan #yen

Up another 1% this morning, gold registered yet another price record nearing $4,500 per ounce (chart). Silver and copper are also higher in a broadening market rally. With some notable exceptions, this year-end push has more to do with liquidity, window-dressing, and risk-taking than fundamentals.

A one-word challenge for you, please: If you had to pick just one word to describe the global economy in 2025, and one for 2026, what would they be? (FWIW, my picks are resilience for 2025, and dispersion for 2026.) #economy #markets #finance

Interesting charts from the "Top IMF Blog Charts" for 2025. While low growth and high deficits/debt are serious standalone challenges for many economies entering 2026, their intersection is where the real policy battle lies. Given both legacies, managing one in isolation is no longer ... 1 of 2

While on Japan, and for the reasons cited last week, it's important to keep an eye on this particular dynamic -- the continued surge in the yield on government bonds. The 10-year is now trading at 2.07%. #economy #markets #japan #bonds

The Yen is currently in a tug of war between the reality of the policy stance and the Minister of Finance's threat of “bold action” to support the currency. Will verbal intervention be enough or will the market force the hand of a Bank of Japan that, currently, seems hesitant to raise rates further

Gold just touched a fresh record high during the Asian morning session—and silver is right there with it. #economy #markets #gold #silver #investing #investors

Per the @financialtimes.com “Macro hedge funds are enjoying their best year since at least 2008… An index from data provider HFR tracking the returns of such funds — which aim to profit from economic trends by trading equities, bonds and commodities — was up 16 per cent at the end of November”

Charts illustrating what Bloomberg calls “The Stock Market’s Wild 2025 Roller-Coaster Ride.” #Markets #investing #investors

For the week look at the global economy and markets, please see www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly... or mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly... #economy #markets

Japan's 2% Threshold: The yield increase ripples across global markets The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond (JGB) has hit the 2% mark, a move that is pulling yields higher across the advanced world. Higher yields intensify pressure on two fronts: Budget: Increasing the cost of... 1 of 3

Good morning. As expected, the Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%—the highest level since 1995. A somewhat dovish press conference surprised markets, contributing to the Yen weakening by 1% against the dollar. #economy #markets #japan #boj #centralbanks

Japan’s November inflation numbers are out: The ex fresh food measure held steady at 3% for the second consecutive month. With that, a 25bps hike to 0.75% in a few hours is practically a "done deal.” #japan #economy #inflation #markets

Ever since I was a student, when the "School Briefs" series first hooked me into a weekly habit of reading The Economist, I have eagerly waited each year for the Christmas double issue. There is something special about that extra-thick edition. Beyond the usual geopolitical ... 1 of 2

As the day has progressed, the conversation among analysts on the favorable US inflation has shifted toward how genuine this significant data beat really is. The debate centers on the number of "imputed" inputs and the methodology used to calculate them—fueling pockets of skepticism. The housing...

After a sharp depreciation in the first four months of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been surprisingly rangebound. What is even more notable is how that range has narrowed in these final months of 2025. ... 1 of 2

From Bloomberg on 2025: "Wall Street can count some great rewards: Investors in the S&P 500 Index have earned a 17% return, Treasuries are up almost 6% and corporate bonds even more. Some of the stellar returns reflect relief that the worst didn’t happen." #economy #markets

Watching the ECB presser and it’s clear: President Lagarde is delivering another "master class" The combination of content, presentation, and poise is unmatched In a world of unusual uncertainty, her communication skills are a powerful strength with positive spillovers for economic/market stability.

As expected the ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 2%, with forward policy guidance supporting the notion of an “extended pause.” The focus now shifts to President Lagarde's press conference. #economy #centralbanks #ecb

This morning’s favorable US data is led by a CPI print that is significantly cooler than the consensus forecast: 2.7% for headline (vs. 3.1%) and 2.6% for core (vs. 3.0%). This represents the lowest inflation level since early 2021. ... 1 of 2

In his address to the nation last night, President Trump made one thing clear: affordability is the administration’s economic focus for 2026. While he avoided the specific buzzword, the policy pivot toward aggressive price reduction measures was clear. 1 of 2

The Bank of England just delivered a widely anticipated 25bps cut, bringing the base rate to 3.75%. Of note: The Vote: A razor-thin 5-4 majority, with Governor Andrew Bailey casting the tie-breaking vote for a cut. The Outlook: While the BoE is optimistic about inflation getting closer... 1 of 2

Good morning. The @WSJ reports on the redirection of China’s 'low-value package' exports away from the U.S.—a trend almost certain to provoke growing resistance in recipient nations: “The redirection of China’s export machine is one of the most dramatic examples of how... 1 of 2

Posted earlier today: My thoughts on the 2026 outlook for the US economy. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/2... #economy #markets @projectsyndicate.bsky.social

Tomorrow, we get the US CPI inflation print for November. Consensus forecasts currently anticipate a headline reading of 3.1% and a core reading of 3.0%. (The recent government shutdown-related data disruptions left the Federal Reserve (and the broader market) flying partially blind. With the...

Gold approaching a new record high. #markets #gold #investing #investors

News that President Trump will interview Fed Governor Chris Waller today has once again upended the betting markets for Chair Powell’s successor. As discussed with Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman yesterday, the volatility of the last week is a stark reminder that these markets ... 1 of 2

With three systemically important central banks poised to announce rate decisions over the next couple of days, the discussion is less about the probable action and more about its framing. Specifically, ... 1 of 2

A larger-than-expected drop in November UK inflation strengthens the case for a 25 bps cut by the Bank of England this week: Headline inflation in Britain fell from 3.6% to 3.2%, beating the consensus forecast of 3.5%. This decline was led by food prices, where the annual rate of price increases…

Oil is leading market movers this morning, with supply volatility in the driving seat: The US blockade on sanctioned tankers leaving and entering Venezuela has pushed oil prices up by 2%. The longevity of this price effect hinges on the "endgame" of the rising tensions between Washington and Caracas

The latest BofA Fund Manager Survey had a particularly striking data point: Average cash holdings have fallen to a record low of 3.3%. The Backward-Looking View: This is a "mission accomplished" signal, reflecting the desire to capture every bit of the 2025 rally. (The S&P is up 15.6% and... 1 of 2

Huge thanks to Dan Ives for an interesting conversation. His insights are sharp, and his style? Unmatched! No doubt who has the more modern style here! My old-school boring look clearly couldn't keep up with his vibrant energy. Time for a Mohamed wardrobe upgrade? Thanks for the great chat, Dan!

From Emmanuel Macron’s column in the Financial Times, “We urgently need to rebalance EU-China relations: Resolving serious trade imbalances will require co-operation and co-ordinated action.” #economy #markets #China #Europe #France #Macron @financialtimes.com

The US yield curve has continued to steepen this month, with the 2s-10s spread now trading at 67 basis points. It is not hard to argue that this trend will persist into 2026 based on both macroeconomic fundamentals and technical supply-demand dynamics. The "X factor"... 1 of 2

This morning’s US retail sales data supports those who worry about a consumer under increasing pressure. Total sales were unchanged in October—falling short of consensus forecasts—while the September figure was revised down to 0.1%. However, the real story lies beneath the surface in the... 1 of 2

The latest US jobs report shows slowing job growth (64,000) and rising unemployment (4.6%). As Chair Powell noted last week, we should interpret these numbers cautiously due to shutdown-related data distortions. However, if forced…

Oil remain under pressure this morning, with Brent joining WTI below $60 per barrel. After falling nearly 10% in the last 30 days, crude is now trading at around September 2021 levels. This decline is being driven primarily by supply-side dynamics—both current and expected. #oil #economy #markets