Judging from market indicators, investors are not anxious about a politically induced rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This comes even as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as Chair, replacing Jerome Powell, who has decided to stay on the Board As detailed in my February column (link below)... 1 of 4

Returning to something I have been ringing the alarm bell about, here are five things to note about the move in UK yields since the start of the Middle East War (please see the CNBC chart below): The magnitude is significant: The move is now approaching a full percentage point—a staggering...

The potential fragility of some G-7 bond markets is worth keeping in mind. After all, the bond vigilantes already tested France, Japan, and the UK between 2022 and 2025. While I’ve focused heavily on the UK this week, Japan is another one to keep an eye on. ... 1 of 3

Remember that simple 4-stage economic framework I shared with you at the start of the Middle East conflict? It’s important to recognize that our current inflation concerns are a direct part of this progression, which started with a concentrated price shock (energy and borrowing costs -- Stage 1)...

Bond yields take center stage this morning, and for good reason: Driven by a 3–4% surge in oil prices, with Brent hitting $109, and hotter-than-expected Japanese PPI, inflation concerns are intensifying and, consequently, yields on advanced-economy government bonds are soaring this morning... 1 of 2

US retail sales were in line with consensus forecasts (please see prior post), with the lower monthly growth seemingly driven more by rising prices than by increased volume. #economy #growth #retailsales

Turning to the US, a heavy morning of data releases includes trade, initial jobless claims, industrial production, and Empire Manufacturing. However, the headliner is undoubtedly retail sales. Households are expected to have both slowed their spending growth and modified composition... 1 of 3

UK quarterly GDP growth accelerated from 0.2% in Q4 last year to 0.6% in the first three months of this year. While consistent with the view that the economy was gaining notable traction earlier this year, too many observers will likely treat this data as “stale” in light of two recent developments:

From the Financial Times: "The Treasury department issued $25bn of new 30-year bonds on Wednesday, with the high yield at auction reaching 5.046 per cent." #economy #markets #debt #bonds #ust @financialtimes.com

Congratulations to Kevin Warsh, who has just been confirmed by the Senate as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell. The new Chair inherits a daunting landscape, including: A complex economic outlook: Competing pressures on both sides of the Fed's dual mandate,... 1 of 4

This fascinating Federal Reserve report -- "Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2025" -- deserves more attention than it typically receives given the range of data. You can find the full report at: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... #economy #markets #federalreserve #wellbeing

Charlie Bilello on US government interest payments: "...at the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security." #economy #markets #debt

A notable development this morning is the lack of a significant bond market reaction to a scorching US PPI print. The move in government bond yields has been de minimis, as shown in the Bloomberg table below This muted response may well stem from a combination of factors: a lingering "transitory"...

From the Wall Street Journal's Editorial, “Jerome Powell’s Inflation Legacy for Kevin Warsh: The new Fed Chair will have to avoid his predecessor’s mistakes” (This was posted pre today’s inflation numbers. FYI, here's my take: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/p... ) #economy #inflation @wsj.com

HUGE jump in US PPI inflation: Powered by an eye-popping 1.4% rise in April, nearly triple the 0.5% consensus, the annual rate has hit 6% (crushing the 4.8% consensus forecast). Core PPI followed suit, surging 1% (vs. 0.3% expected), ... 1 of 2

A good question for an economics test and also interviews for an economics or finance job: The US economy has entered its sixth consecutive year in which inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve's target, and not just by a little. Until recently, however, markets have ... 1 of 2

Good morning. Following yesterday’s hotter-than-expected US CPI data for April, attention turns to this morning’s PPI numbers. These figures will provide us a feel of the strength of pressures currently moving through ... 1 of 2

Thank you, Richard Quest, for having me on your show. I enjoyed out conversation. #economy #inflation #markets @cnn.com

Crafting headlines is notoriously challenging, particularly when trying to balance competing considerations and objectives. With that important qualification in mind, it is improtant to note that America’s inflation challenge isn’t just about the gas pump. ... 1 of 3.

The British Pound is under pressure today, failing to find support despite a dramatic surge in yields. With the 10-year Gilt breaking above 5.10% and the 30-year yield hitting a level not seen since March 1998 (Bloomberg chart below), the market is sending a clear signal that... 1 of 3

The US CPI numbers are out, and they’re slightly hotter than expected—arriving just as the Federal Reserve prepares for the imminent changing of the guard, with Kevin Warsh set to replace Jerome Powell as Chair Driven by a 0.6% monthly spike in April,annual headline inflation rose to 3.8% (beating..

It’s US CPI day. While the consensus expects annual headline inflation to climb from 3.3% in March to 3.7% in April, the forecast for core inflation is a very marginal increase from 2.6% to 2.7%. This is the critical metric to watch as it summarizes the prevailing view that energy cost spillovers...

Meanwhile, in the energy markets, WTI crude has reclaimed the $100 level while Brent moves closer to $110. (Data from CNBC.) #economy #markets #energy #oil

Uncertain British politics = another step up in UK government bond yields. (This morning's selloff is sizeable, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.10%.) #economy #Markets #Gilts #UKEconomy #bonds #uk

From the Financial Times article seeking to estimate the economic cost of the Middle East war to US households, businesses, and the federal budget. #economy #markets #middleeastwar @financialtimes.com

From the Wall Street Journal: "Copper prices notched a new record high Monday, rising on strong demand for data-center construction, supply disruptions at one of the world's largest mines and surging input costs." #economy #markets #inflation #copper @wsj.com

With the yield on 10-year UK government bonds staring down the barrel of 5%, traders are focused on 4 "internal" questions that will likely dictate the near-term outlook for Gilts: 1. Will Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership survive the fallout from the local elections? If not, 2. Who replaces him?...

Domestic political developments are once again magnifying the pain of higher oil prices for UK Gilts. As shown in the Bloomberg table below, the 10-year yield is now hovering just a fraction below the 5% mark. #economy #Markets #gilts #uk #debt

A clip from this morning's conversation on CNBC with Andrew Ross Sorkin, Becky Quick, and Joe Kernen. Thank you for having me on Squawk Box. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0... #economy #markets @andrewrsorkin.bsky.social @beckyquick.bsky.social @cnbc.com

Per CNBC below, a global week of inflation data kicked off with hotter-than-expected Chinese CPI and PPI figures. This comes ahead of the highly anticipated US inflation data later this week. #economy #markets #inflation @cnbc.com

Just out: The G30’s report, "The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Framework: More to Do to Buttress Independence." By a Working Group chaired by Bill Dudley, the former President of the New York Fed, the report explores what the ... 1 of 2

Please find below the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets. It's a busy week ahead: As equity markets scale record heights and the Strait of Hormuz blockades continue amid geopolitical instability and supply-side disruptions, look also this week for high-stakes ... 1 of 2

Remembering my amazing mom on this Mother's Day. So incredibly thankful for all she did for me, and the values she instilled in me. She was the quiet force behind our family’s greatest joys and our most resilient moments. Love you and miss you. #mothers #mothersday

Another reminder that the resumption of a more normal oil market isn't as simple as flicking a light switch. Via Bloomberg, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, "it will take a few months for the oil market to rebalance." And if "trade and ... 1 of 2

Bloomberg: “The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf… The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer…” #economy #oil #markets #middleeastwar

I am deeply saddened by the news of Marty Leibowitz’s passing. Marty was a true giant in our field, combining rigorous intellectual depth with a profound sense of humanity. He was a constant source of wisdom, a mentor to many, and, above all, a world-class human being. May he rest in peace.

Heading into the peak U.S. driving season, the latest AAA data show regular gas (petrol) prices holding above $4.50 a gallon and diesel prices near record highs. #economy #markets #gas

The timing is notable, coming just days before President Trump’s trip to China. Some hope these talks will foster more constructive relations on trade, security, and technology. Others see little chance of breakthroughs, given the challenges in this bilateral relationship. #china @financialtimes.com

Check the last column in this Bloomberg table. Markets are now signaling no meaningful rate movement from the Federal Reserve well into next year, with the implied rate remaining anchored in the 3.6% to 3.7% range. #economy #federalreserve #markets #growth #inflation

Via the IMF's Blog: "Mistakes will be made." This warning from Olivier Blanchard highlights the difficult reality for policymakers navigating an unusually fluid environment also characterized by simultaneous structural shifts. In such a period of high uncertainty and volatility, policy ... 1 of 2

While on US data, and as detailed below, the latest University of Michigan survey shows consumer sentiment falling to a record low of 48.2. This decline was driven by a sharp drop in the current conditions component. ... 1 of 2

My major takeaways from this morning’s US Jobs Report: 1. Upside Surprise: Monthly job creation once again beat expectations. At 115,000, the April print was nearly double the consensus forecast. 2. Steady Unemployment: The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, as the consensus anticipated. 3. Moderate...

Per the NY Times and also reported elsewhere: "The size of [US government] debt surpassed the nation’s total economic output,” a development “that the country has experienced only in rare circumstances — briefly during the pandemic, and in the aftermath of World War II.” #economy #debt #markets

Welcome to Jobs Friday in the US. The consensus forecast points to jobs growth of around 60,000 for April, though the wide dispersion of individual estimates suggests significant uncertainty. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, while the labor force participation rate is...

"I'm not going to walk away and plunge the country into chaos." This, from UK PM Keir Starmer, explains why gilt yields are lower today, despite the Labour Party’s heavy (and expected) local elections loss. For the markets, the prospect of continuing fiscal stability outweighs the electoral setback.

According to CNBC, Wall Street has a new acronym: NACHO, or “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.” #economy #markets @cnbc.com

From Bloomberg: “Executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about US shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging gas prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. “They’re literally running out of money at the end... 1 of 2.

A sobering statistic from the BLS highlights another dimension of the Main Street/Wall Street divide: The US labor share of output fell to 54.1% in Q1 2026, the lowest level since this data series began in 1947. Put another way,... 1 of 2

From the New York Fed’s “Survey of Consumer Expectations”: “Median inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage points (ppt) to 3.6% at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0% at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons, respectively, in April.”... 1 of 2

Despite a 10-week war with major energy (and other) supply disruptions, the Dollar DXY index has remained range-bound for almost a year (white line), with a flat moving average (green line). Two possibilities: Without the war, DXY would have been weaker The "War Premium" is virtually dead Thoughts?