From Apollo's Torsten Slok on the US K-shaped economy: "Today, wage growth for low-income workers is significantly lower than wage growth for middle- and high-income workers." #economy #inequality #wages #markets

Good news: Several media sources are reporting that political progress is being made to end what is now the longest-running US government shutdown. #economy #shutdown #governmentshutdown #markets #shutdown2025 #governmentshutdown2025

FYI: The link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets. mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly... #economy #markets

From the @FT: “US companies’ earnings are growing at the fastest pace in four years… Median earnings growth year-on-year across the Russell 3000 index — a benchmark for the entire US stock market — hit 11 per cent in … 1 of 2.

From Apollo's Torsten Slok. #markets #stocks #tech #investing #investors

From the Financial Times: “US companies closely tied to the artificial intelligence boom have lost close to $1tn in market value since last Friday.” #markets #ai #tech @financialtimes.com

From the Financial Stability Report just published by the Federal Reserve (link: www.federalreserve.gov/publications... ). #economy #markets #federalreserve #financialstability #financialsystem

Why, focusing on those working “On AI” is not enough to unlock its enormous potential. That also requires diffusion—ensuring that more individuals, companies, and countries can effectively work “With AI:” mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/from-on-ai... #tech #ai #economy #growth #Productivity

NY Fed data shows inflation expectations firmly anchored at around 3%. Specifically, one-year inflation expectation fell slightly to 3.24% (from 3.38%), as did three-year (to 3.00% from 3.05%). Five-year was essentially unchanged at 3.00%. #economy #markets #inflation

US consumer sentiment just hit 50.3, its lowest level since the record low of June 2022, driven by concerns over the government shutdown: The University of Michigan "current conditions" component dropped to a record level while the "expectations" sub-index fell to a 6-month low. ... 1 of 2

China's October exports fell 1.1%, coming in lower than expected and marking the first decline in 8 months. The drop was driven by a 25% YoY fall in shipments to the US, which was not fully offset by a 3.1% rise in shipments to other countries. With 1 % import growth, the trade surplus was $90.1 bn.

In a close 5–4 decision, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and, with inflation “judged to have peaked,” signaled future cuts. The decision to hold rates was in line with the consensus expectation, while the forward policy guidance was somewhat more dovish. #economy #uk #inflation

The ISM index for services rose from 50.0 to 52.4, driven by both new orders and current activity, while prices paid edged higher (69.4 to 70). Bottom line: The core (non-AI) US economy is holding steady and somewhat sticky inflation is persisting. #economy #markets #ISM #growth #inflation

The devotion of us, Jets fans... it's something else. We push the boundary between admirable and stubborn every single season. Even after this latest twist that tests our patience, the loyalty stays strong. Is that heroic, foolish, or worse? #JetsNation #NYJets @newyorkjets.bsky.social #jets

With the government shutdown likely to prevent the BLS from issuing the official US October jobs report this Friday, all eyes are on this morning's (just-released) ADP data. Here's the major takeaways: The headline number of +42,000 jobs beat the consensus forecast (30k). Hiring was driven by ...

Today's exit polls suggest that the economy was an important factor. For quite a few voters, it came down to one key issue in particular: affordability. #ElectionDay #ExitPolls #Economy

With the Supreme Court set to hear arguments on US tariffs tomorrow, these two charts from John Authers’ daily note provide some background. (As you can probably tell from how often I refer to his work, I’m a big fan!) #economy #markets #SCOTUS #Tariffs #Trade

Chancellor Rachel Reeves' pre-Budget speech this morning is worth a read (link below) It offers a candid look at the UK's fiscal situation and identifies the core challenges,including the need to address worsening debt dynamics before they overwhelm policy flexibility The speech sets out the case...

This evolution—from "In China, for China" to "In China, for China and, now, (semi) by China"—is a strategy I suspect some other US multinationals could well pursue as they navigate on-again, off-again tensions between the two countries #economy #china #markets

This chart from John Authers' daily note gives us a sense of the incredible outperformance of tech names relative to other companies in the S&P 500. #economy #tech #stocks #markets #investing #investors @johnauthers.bsky.social

The link to this morning's conversation on Squawk Box. Thank you Andrew, Joe and Mike for having me on the show. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1... #economy #markets @cnbc.com

Economic damage is intensifying 34 days into the US government shutdown, disproportionately hitting the more vulnerable segments of the population and significantly disrupting some sectors like air travel. The longer this persists, the slower and less complete the bounce-back when the shutdown ends

The links to the conversation with Robert Peston on “The Rest is Money.” Thank you, Robert, for having me on your podcast. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/w... open.spotify.com/episode/4RCi... #economy #UK #deficit #debt #budget #markets

US manufacturing production remains under pressure even as inflation eases The ISM's manufacturing index came in below 50 for the eighth straight month, declining 0.4 points to 48.7. The employment subcomponent also remained below the 50. ... 1 of 2

Please find below the link to my weekly look at the global economy and markets: mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-week-a... #economy #markets

A must-visit, the newly opened Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) #gem #grandegyptianmuseum #egypt

Please find below the usual end-of-month performance table for various assets and asset classes. October was a strong month for investors, adding to the already impressive returns for 2025. Nearly every asset... 1 of 2

The minutes from this week’s Fed meeting, due out in a few weeks, should make for very interesting reading: Per this Bloomberg reporting, the divide among top Fed officials appears wider than indicated on Wednesday. #economy #markets #FederalReserve #centralbanks

On global macro news this morning: Eurozone: As expected, inflation edged lower, from 2.2% in September to 2.1% in October. With core inflation) at 2.4% and a sticky services component of 3.4%, the ECB will stay on hold for now. China: The official PMI for the manufacturing sector... 1 of 2

CNBC on probabilities of a rate cut after the Fed’s Chair “surprisingly tough talk Wednesday:” “For their part, traders weren’t buying the hawkish rhetoric. Fed fund futures pricing Thursday still indicated a 75% probability of a cut in December, though that was down from around 90% the day before.”

From The Wall Street Journal. More to follow on this. #economy #markets #ai @wsj.com

With the US government shutdown about to enter its second month, we should expect it to inflict increasing damage on the economy. The most vulnerable segments of the population will be hit hardest, especially as they lose federal food assistance and see their healthcare costs rise. While it is easy…

As illustrated in the Bloomberg chart below, the risk spread of investment-grade bonds has fallen to a very tight level as investors focus on a total yield that they worry will go lower in the months ahead. This dynamic was vividly illustrated today by Meta's bond sale. ... 1 of 2

Took an Uber yesterday and was having a perfectly normal chat with my the driver about his football team, the Washington Commanders. All was going well until he asked “so, who's your team?" “The Jets,” I responded meekly. What followed…

This is another indication of what Jamie Dimon calls "cockroaches." For the reasons I outlined in earlier posts, JP Morgan's CEO is absolutely correct to warn that we will see more credit accidents following a period of very heavy lending, some of ... 1 of 2

The Financial Times on US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s approach to the Federal Reserve: “With the second round of Treasury interviews scheduled for the coming weeks, Bessent has honed the focus of a drawn out process. The goal is a leaner and meaner central bank.” #economy #federalreserve

Elsewhere, and focusing on the last 24 hours of news, there is a notable sense of multiplying de-couplings. Such dispersion is evident across (with the stronger-performing listed first): Tech firms and non-tech firms; Within tech, companies with multiple revenue sources and... 1 of 3

A successful meeting between President Trump and President Xi delivers a tactical de-escalation in US-China trade tensions. The agreement includes a relaxation of rare earth export restrictions, additional purchases from America, and stronger… 1 of 2

The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates unchanged, and the ECB is expected to do the same later today. Today’s BoJ decision featured two dissenting votes and (stronger than market expectation) signals from the Governor indicating that a rate hike is on the horizon. #economy #markets #boj #ecb

The current economic complexity, lack of official data, weak leadership, diverging risk appetites and biases, lame duck syndrome—or perhaps none or some combination of all these factors—have contributed to the notable lack of unity among Fed … 1 of 2

It’s happening again: In what has become a familiar pattern in the last few years, US stocks sold off as Fed Chair Powell began answering questions at his post-statement press conference (please see charts below on the S&P and Russell). #economy #markets #FederalReserve #centralbanks #stocks

One of the clips -- on AI, the economy and markets -- from this morning's conversation with Carl Quintanilla and David Faber. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1... #Economy #markets #AI @cnbc.com

This morning's news about the higher probability of US exports of high-end chips to China is another signal that the two countries are in a period of notable de-escalation ahead of the two presidents’ meeting tomorrow. The key question for the global economy and markets is... 1 of 2

Huge thanks to Carl and David for having me on their show. #economy #markets @cnbc.com

For the reasons I have discussed before, I am a huge optimist about the significant productivity and growth upside of AI and, by implications, its potential to help address many other challenges facing current and future generations. Having said that, this Wall Street Journal headline speaks to a…

Good morning and welcome to Fed Day! The Federal Reserve will deliver the widely anticipated 25 bps cut and signal the impending end of QT. It is also likely to acknowledge that the inflationary pass-through of tariffs has been less than expected The world’s most powerful central bank is unlikely...

H/T Steve Liesman. Regarding the results of the CNBC Federal Reserve survey, while the anticipated 25 basis point cut will occur this week, it is unlikely the central bank will validate subsequent cuts at this time. Moreover, the survey's details show a disconnect: while 92% of respondents said…

Interesting factoid from Apollo's Torsten Slok: "Hyperscalers are currently spending a record high 60% of their operating cash flow on capex." #economy #markets #tech #ai

A favorable global macro backdrop this morning on account of more positive signs for the China-US trade negotiations and the virtual certainty that the Fed will cut rates this week. This is supported by the transparency in the process for selecting a replacement for Fed Chair Powell, as Treasury…

Good morning. From The Wall Street Journal on President Milei’s political victory in yesterday’s Argentine election: “The result, stronger than most polls had predicted, gives Milei fresh political momentum after months of unrest over deep spending cuts and a… 1 of 2.