FYI, the link to this morning's conversation with @MariaBartiromo (from 5:00 minute). Thank you, Maria, for having me on your show. www.foxbusiness.com/video/639593... #economy #markets #inflation @foxbusiness.com.web.brid.gy

From the Wall Street Journal article, "The Economy Kevin Warsh Is Inheriting Is Not the One He Wanted: The next Fed chair wants lower rates. See the data that might make that impossible." #economy #markets #federalreserve #inflation @wsj.com

“Let me say this really clearly. I support the fiscal rules, there needs to be a plan to get debt down”. This comment from Andy Burnham has contributed to this morning's outperformance of the UK bond market (i.e., a larger fall in yields — Bloomberg data below). #UK #economy #markets

After a shaky start to the Asian trading session—including a sharp surge in Japanese yields (one of the two G-7 bond markets I’m watching closely)—global yields have stabilized. This comes as G-7 officials meet in Paris to discuss ways to minimize the risks of economic and financial dislocations....

Good morning. China’s latest economic data highlights an intensifying structural divide: strong export growth paired with stalling domestic demand. Specifically, per the WSJ, "At home, domestic demand remains tepid. Retail sales ... 1 of 2.

While on oil, this and below from The Economist: "THE LARGEST supply shock in petroleum history is getting larger fast." #economy #oil #markets #middleeastwar @economist.com

Brent crude starts the trading week above $110 a barrel in Asia amid stalled US-Iran talks and a fresh set of warnings to Tehran from President Trump. (CNBC table below.) #economy #oil #energy #markets @cnbc.com

As discussed in the weekly note, the continued depletion of energy inventories is fueling concerns not just about another leg up in prices, but also about supply shortages and rationing in some countries. It should come as no surprise that this is on the front page of the Financial Times. #oil

Look what popped up on my phone this morning. Am full of such deep admiration for Warren Buffett -- an extraordinary mind and exceptional human being whose wisdom and kindness have had, and continues to have a wonderful impact on so many.

"Economists have long been interested in how leaders of economic entities allocate their scarce time and attention.... ..studying the time allocation of [the last three] Federal Reserve Chairs provides important insights into leadership...and the Fed’s institutional evolution." #federalreserve

Hello FYI, just posted my weekly look at the global economy and markets, focusing both on recent developments (including the nature and reach of the bond market shock) and an outlook characterized by fascinating complexities and unusual uncertainty. ... 1 of 2

Judging from market indicators, investors are not anxious about a politically induced rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This comes even as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as Chair, replacing Jerome Powell, who has decided to stay on the Board As detailed in my February column (link below)... 1 of 4

Returning to something I have been ringing the alarm bell about, here are five things to note about the move in UK yields since the start of the Middle East War (please see the CNBC chart below): The magnitude is significant: The move is now approaching a full percentage point—a staggering...

The potential fragility of some G-7 bond markets is worth keeping in mind. After all, the bond vigilantes already tested France, Japan, and the UK between 2022 and 2025. While I’ve focused heavily on the UK this week, Japan is another one to keep an eye on. ... 1 of 3

Remember that simple 4-stage economic framework I shared with you at the start of the Middle East conflict? It’s important to recognize that our current inflation concerns are a direct part of this progression, which started with a concentrated price shock (energy and borrowing costs -- Stage 1)...

Bond yields take center stage this morning, and for good reason: Driven by a 3–4% surge in oil prices, with Brent hitting $109, and hotter-than-expected Japanese PPI, inflation concerns are intensifying and, consequently, yields on advanced-economy government bonds are soaring this morning... 1 of 2

US retail sales were in line with consensus forecasts (please see prior post), with the lower monthly growth seemingly driven more by rising prices than by increased volume. #economy #growth #retailsales

Turning to the US, a heavy morning of data releases includes trade, initial jobless claims, industrial production, and Empire Manufacturing. However, the headliner is undoubtedly retail sales. Households are expected to have both slowed their spending growth and modified composition... 1 of 3

UK quarterly GDP growth accelerated from 0.2% in Q4 last year to 0.6% in the first three months of this year. While consistent with the view that the economy was gaining notable traction earlier this year, too many observers will likely treat this data as “stale” in light of two recent developments:

From the Financial Times: "The Treasury department issued $25bn of new 30-year bonds on Wednesday, with the high yield at auction reaching 5.046 per cent." #economy #markets #debt #bonds #ust @financialtimes.com

Congratulations to Kevin Warsh, who has just been confirmed by the Senate as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell. The new Chair inherits a daunting landscape, including: A complex economic outlook: Competing pressures on both sides of the Fed's dual mandate,... 1 of 4

This fascinating Federal Reserve report -- "Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2025" -- deserves more attention than it typically receives given the range of data. You can find the full report at: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... #economy #markets #federalreserve #wellbeing

Charlie Bilello on US government interest payments: "...at the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security." #economy #markets #debt

A notable development this morning is the lack of a significant bond market reaction to a scorching US PPI print. The move in government bond yields has been de minimis, as shown in the Bloomberg table below This muted response may well stem from a combination of factors: a lingering "transitory"...

From the Wall Street Journal's Editorial, “Jerome Powell’s Inflation Legacy for Kevin Warsh: The new Fed Chair will have to avoid his predecessor’s mistakes” (This was posted pre today’s inflation numbers. FYI, here's my take: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/p... ) #economy #inflation @wsj.com

HUGE jump in US PPI inflation: Powered by an eye-popping 1.4% rise in April, nearly triple the 0.5% consensus, the annual rate has hit 6% (crushing the 4.8% consensus forecast). Core PPI followed suit, surging 1% (vs. 0.3% expected), ... 1 of 2

A good question for an economics test and also interviews for an economics or finance job: The US economy has entered its sixth consecutive year in which inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve's target, and not just by a little. Until recently, however, markets have ... 1 of 2

Good morning. Following yesterday’s hotter-than-expected US CPI data for April, attention turns to this morning’s PPI numbers. These figures will provide us a feel of the strength of pressures currently moving through ... 1 of 2

Thank you, Richard Quest, for having me on your show. I enjoyed out conversation. #economy #inflation #markets @cnn.com

Crafting headlines is notoriously challenging, particularly when trying to balance competing considerations and objectives. With that important qualification in mind, it is improtant to note that America’s inflation challenge isn’t just about the gas pump. ... 1 of 3.

The British Pound is under pressure today, failing to find support despite a dramatic surge in yields. With the 10-year Gilt breaking above 5.10% and the 30-year yield hitting a level not seen since March 1998 (Bloomberg chart below), the market is sending a clear signal that... 1 of 3

The US CPI numbers are out, and they’re slightly hotter than expected—arriving just as the Federal Reserve prepares for the imminent changing of the guard, with Kevin Warsh set to replace Jerome Powell as Chair Driven by a 0.6% monthly spike in April,annual headline inflation rose to 3.8% (beating..

It’s US CPI day. While the consensus expects annual headline inflation to climb from 3.3% in March to 3.7% in April, the forecast for core inflation is a very marginal increase from 2.6% to 2.7%. This is the critical metric to watch as it summarizes the prevailing view that energy cost spillovers...

Meanwhile, in the energy markets, WTI crude has reclaimed the $100 level while Brent moves closer to $110. (Data from CNBC.) #economy #markets #energy #oil

Uncertain British politics = another step up in UK government bond yields. (This morning's selloff is sizeable, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.10%.) #economy #Markets #Gilts #UKEconomy #bonds #uk

From the Financial Times article seeking to estimate the economic cost of the Middle East war to US households, businesses, and the federal budget. #economy #markets #middleeastwar @financialtimes.com

From the Wall Street Journal: "Copper prices notched a new record high Monday, rising on strong demand for data-center construction, supply disruptions at one of the world's largest mines and surging input costs." #economy #markets #inflation #copper @wsj.com

With the yield on 10-year UK government bonds staring down the barrel of 5%, traders are focused on 4 "internal" questions that will likely dictate the near-term outlook for Gilts: 1. Will Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership survive the fallout from the local elections? If not, 2. Who replaces him?...

Domestic political developments are once again magnifying the pain of higher oil prices for UK Gilts. As shown in the Bloomberg table below, the 10-year yield is now hovering just a fraction below the 5% mark. #economy #Markets #gilts #uk #debt

A clip from this morning's conversation on CNBC with Andrew Ross Sorkin, Becky Quick, and Joe Kernen. Thank you for having me on Squawk Box. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0... #economy #markets @andrewrsorkin.bsky.social @beckyquick.bsky.social @cnbc.com

Per CNBC below, a global week of inflation data kicked off with hotter-than-expected Chinese CPI and PPI figures. This comes ahead of the highly anticipated US inflation data later this week. #economy #markets #inflation @cnbc.com

Just out: The G30’s report, "The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Framework: More to Do to Buttress Independence." By a Working Group chaired by Bill Dudley, the former President of the New York Fed, the report explores what the ... 1 of 2

Please find below the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets. It's a busy week ahead: As equity markets scale record heights and the Strait of Hormuz blockades continue amid geopolitical instability and supply-side disruptions, look also this week for high-stakes ... 1 of 2

Remembering my amazing mom on this Mother's Day. So incredibly thankful for all she did for me, and the values she instilled in me. She was the quiet force behind our family’s greatest joys and our most resilient moments. Love you and miss you. #mothers #mothersday

Another reminder that the resumption of a more normal oil market isn't as simple as flicking a light switch. Via Bloomberg, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, "it will take a few months for the oil market to rebalance." And if "trade and ... 1 of 2

Bloomberg: “The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf… The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer…” #economy #oil #markets #middleeastwar

I am deeply saddened by the news of Marty Leibowitz’s passing. Marty was a true giant in our field, combining rigorous intellectual depth with a profound sense of humanity. He was a constant source of wisdom, a mentor to many, and, above all, a world-class human being. May he rest in peace.

Heading into the peak U.S. driving season, the latest AAA data show regular gas (petrol) prices holding above $4.50 a gallon and diesel prices near record highs. #economy #markets #gas

The timing is notable, coming just days before President Trump’s trip to China. Some hope these talks will foster more constructive relations on trade, security, and technology. Others see little chance of breakthroughs, given the challenges in this bilateral relationship. #china @financialtimes.com

Check the last column in this Bloomberg table. Markets are now signaling no meaningful rate movement from the Federal Reserve well into next year, with the implied rate remaining anchored in the 3.6% to 3.7% range. #economy #federalreserve #markets #growth #inflation