One battle after another: Netanyahu’s new security doctrine - a read here www.ft.com/content/6d0e...

Hilarious how for years serious people have said that you can't rely on renewables because they are prone to disruptions in supply www.ft.com/content/19f1...

as.ft.com/r/0cb6efe1-7... Stagflation is back

How to Win a Trade War, in sea shanty form... I'm posting this today because @barnesandnoble.com has a special 25% off deal on pre-orders with the code PREORDER25. Deal runs until tomorrow, so pre-order How to Win a Trade War now! www.barnesandnoble.com/w/how-to-win... #BNPreorder

Democracy is on the brink of a worldwide depression — with the US leading the decline. Civil rights and equality in the land of the free have fallen to the levels of the mid-1960s and freedom of expression is at its lowest since the 1950s. Read Martin Wolf on #FTEdit 👉 ft.trib.al/ylR5qXv

NEW: The net seemed to be tightening around the shadow fleet, but now these ships are ready to capitalise on the chaos of the Iran war and restricted supplies of oil. ig.ft.com/shadow-fleet/

Hmmmmmmmmm. www.ft.com/content/1171...

Where we are at with markets and Trump - from the latest Unhedged from @robarmstrong.bsky.social and @katie0martin.ft.com as.ft.com/r/53bc8677-7...

After my father had been waiting two hours for an NHS ambulance, Hatzola sent one in half an hour. The antisemitic attack on its service will hurt real people. If you can support their campaign to buy new ambulances, please do www.charityextra.com/hatzola-emer...

Yesterday I had a story out about eggs, today I have a column out about Marc Andreessen. Make of that what you will. as.ft.com/r/14d0d9d8-6... (gift link! 💝)

It's only force majeure if it comes from the Majeure region of France. Otherwise it's just a sparkling shitshow.

The Bank of England’s hawkish pivot in language has rattled markets. @financialtimes.com analysis shows it was the largest shift of any major central bank, raising questions about whether it misjudged its tone Lots of number crunching from me and @joelsuss.ft.com here: as.ft.com/r/bd03a4a9-e...

The Bank of England was a real outlier with its comms this week, far more hawkish than peers Language analysis shows a sharp shift in tone from the UK central bank this week as.ft.com/r/41e01e51-9...

Massive repricing after yesterday: the market now thinks Bank of England will hike rates in the near term Over 85% chance of one hike by June, 30% probability of back-to-back hikes 😮

congratulations to Viktor Orbán's father on his house, which raises no questions at all as.ft.com/r/e20a43e6-e...

Almost exactly ten years ago @henrymance.ft.com had lunch with Nigel Farage www.ft.com/content/864c.... It remains legend. Quite a lot has happened over the subsequent decade so we sent him back in. as.ft.com/r/edeac2c6-0...

Heat pumps are the most efficient heating technology ever invented. They harvest and compress pre existing heat in the air, ground or water and transport it where it is needed. That energy is all around us. It does not have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz or any other geopolitical chokepoint.

Really should read this today www.nber.org/papers/w31938

My piece today in @financialtimes.com on Iran and inflation expectations 👇👇 In short: hawkish communications and actions are to be expected by central bankers Free-to-read: as.ft.com/r/b94a63c9-4...

GOLDMAN: “.. higher geopolitical risk weighs on hiring and capex, and .. when shocks to geopolitical risk and oil prices occur simultaneously, the impact is roughly twice as large.” 👀

This is outstanding investigative journalism as.ft.com/r/bb5bffcc-1... We visited the greasy spoon owned by MFS’s auditor (with a mortgage from MFS)

“Because he dresses like a cartoon Englishman of the counties, the extent to which Farage is a creature of the US has been overlooked by the public. No longer, perhaps” Excellent by Janan Ganesh as.ft.com/r/ed1e7858-2... Farage forgets which country he aims to govern

Nice fig showing flight departures from Gulf coming back but still lots of cancellations

More ships leaving Strait of Hormuz but still far fewer than before attack

someone at the pentagon frantically typing “Claude, open the strait of Hormuz for me, quickest possible strategy, make no mistakes.”

I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of money. But... ...maybe there wasn't much planning?

Lots of excellent figures and analysis here: Which leading economies will pay the biggest price for the Iran war? as.ft.com/r/65d0bb01-0...

Rising energy prices are pushing up inflation, especially in economies dependent on imported fossil fuels. The durable solution is structural: improve efficiency, accelerate electrification and scale up renewables. Energy policy is economic policy.

Stagflation risks rising in the US

The Iranian conflict is a big geopolitical shock in relative terms, and one that will be stagflationary for Europe and the US My piece in @financialtimes.com on our Geopolitical Mood index and lessons for central bankers from geopolitical shocks past as.ft.com/r/ff95a5f1-d...

this the FT not The Onion

New Fed paper out on the history of central bank independence—how it came to be, what it actually means legally, and what presidents, Fed chairs, and Congress really said about it over the decades. Fair warning: It's a deep dive into historical archives, which means ... it's dense!

Astonishing chart from @chrisgiles.ft.com showing what happens to the path of UK govt debt if income tax thresholds rise with prices rather than wages. I've been following UK econ forever, but seem I've not been paying attn, as this was news to me. www.ft.com/content/0b2b...

Guys, the Italian unemployment rate has just fallen below the UK's.

New 🏭: The price of natural gas in Europe has surged almost 80% since Friday after Iranian strikes on the world's second-largest exporter Qatar and the effective closure of key shipping routes... But zooming out, we're still a long way from the 2022 price crisis

Worryingly from a European inflation perspective, the price of natural gas is leaping higher. But the Iran price impact is still wayyy below Russia invasion of Ukraine impact as.ft.com/r/ae56dcb3-d... In charts: How serious is the Middle East gas price shock?

The probability of a US attack on Iran shot up on Polymarket well ahead of the attack, great figure and coverage of insider trading on the platform by @chriscook.news & co 👇👇 as.ft.com/r/e8bda9f9-4...

The FT's geopolitical mood index is cratering (of course). The US-Israel v Iran conflict is much larger negative geopolitical shock than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In case wasn't obvious: this is a big one! Details on index construction: as.ft.com/r/934fb501-4...

Big hat tip @wapplehouse.bsky.social for this:

Will AI-induced productivity growth allow the Fed to lower interest rates? I wrote about this debate in the @financialtimes.com today 👇👇 as.ft.com/r/6a2c4cb0-8...

Yes, pre 1776 norms

aaaaaand: 175 entities in the network were sanctioned today by the UK.

Headline US GDP far lower than expected, even 'core' GDP growth -- which was a healthier 2.4% -- has been trending down since 2023. Growing economic momentum? Not so much www.ft.com/content/0086...

A new paper shows that less than 2 months of exposure to Twitter’s algorithmic feed significantly shifts people’s political views to the right. Moving from chronological feed to the algorithmic feed also increases engagement. This is one of the most concerning papers I’ve read in awhile.

Surely more people want to watch the women’s ice hockey gold medal game BBC than men’s curling ?!

New by me on how polymarket stacks up against financial market for predicting Fed decisions. Answer: narrowly better! as.ft.com/r/90dbb2b1-7...

This is v important piece on UK maternal care by @laurahughesft.bsky.social but makes for difficult reading My wife encountered this with our second child, thankfully everything ended up OK but there were a series of very dangerous mistakes made as.ft.com/r/24e63817-d...

Juxtoposing with this story and sure seems as though Trump wilfully doing damage to US car industry (see also Canada tariffs): as.ft.com/r/0c860176-e...

Viktor Orbán hoping for a US “bailout package” to help his sinking poll prospects ... the US admin is pushing for MAGA mould nationalist populists wherever it can www.politico.eu/article/hung...