Are interest rates/term premia moving higher for good or is the latest rate surge a temporary flash in the pan? See below, with appearances from the "yips" & Roseanne Roseannadanna.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/05/bond...

👍👍 Indeed. The CCRT was created in 2014 in response to a call by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to provide debt relief to countries then hit by Ebola. www.reuters.com/article/busi...

Thanks to FTAV and Robin Wigglesworth for running the piece below on America putting the RMB back on the international agenda. Huge thanks as well to co-conspirators Brad Setser and Robin Brooks. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

spot on.

Would a US Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund or Federal Reserve "swap" with the UAE make any sense?👇 www.omfif.org/2026/05/us-u...

The IMF can do more to help LIC/LMIC debt distressed countries by using its bully pulpit & setting the envelope through its DSAs to provide greater debt relief. It’s time to do so & help provide more fiscal space for reform. www.omfif.org/2026/04/imf-...

What to expect from the IMF at next week's Spring Meetings? My scenesetter. Perplexity, hand-wringing, confusion!👇 www.omfif.org/2026/04/dele...

Huge thanks to Tara Hariharan, NWI Management, for joining me/OMFIF for a great podcast on the impact of the Iran war on investing in emerging markets as well as the asset class more generally.👋👋 www.omfif.org/podcast/the-...

Charles Collyns, former senior IMF official, examines whether the Fund's Article IV 2026 concluding mission statement on the US economy is too soft on its largest shareholder. Please read his analysis👇 You can judge his answer! Huge thanks to Charles. www.omfif.org/2026/03/is-t...

Michael Pettis joined OMFIF/me to discuss China's growth model & challenges, the shocks it has undergone & why reliance on investment & macroeconomic policy caution will continue. 👇 Huge thanks to Michael Pettis for a fascinting and lively discussion. www.omfif.org/podcast/chin...

Macron's G7 Presidency is emphasizing concrete commitments to tackle global imbalances and so is the Trump Admin for its G20 Presidency. We've seen this movie before. Expect lots of pomp & a nothingburger.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/03/glob...

US Treasury's late January FX Report was on its face a snooze. No Sominex needed. BUT, it was actually an improved & richer report with consequential new findings & analysis. The FX community & officialdom should pay attention. I explain why below.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/02/us-t...

The day wouldn't be complete without yet another profound & insightful Kevin Warsh commentary. All kidding aside, Warsh's life is going to be very complicated and not just because of Trump.👇👇👇 www.omfif.org/2026/02/no-e...

Thanks to Robin Wigglesworth and FTAV. www.ft.com/content/0933...

This is a gratuitous and mean-spirited comment that is not worthy of a Secretary of the Treasury and the dignity of the office.

Ending Putin's barbaric war against Ukraine will expose Russia's economic ruin. That may be another reason for Putin to keep on fighting.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/01/puti...

A thoughtful and important post.

Predicting FX markets is a fool's errand but here are 6 2026 FX observations. www.omfif.org/2026/01/outl...

Congrats to Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman on their outstanding work! www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...

You wanna read a new (hopefully improved, thanks to very helpful comments from a bunch of very smart colleagues) version of paper called "The Political Economy of Shitcoins"? Of course you do. @tompepinsky.com & I are at your service. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

There are precious few organizations, let alone ones that exist in political milieu, that couldn't benefit from reform. But one shouldn't give succor to those who would throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Once again, there is exactly <no> chance of the RMB rivaling or replacing either the dollar (or the euro) as the dominant international reserve currency, because Xi Jinping & 🇨🇳 policymakers are totally unwilling to reverse their macroeconomic policies to make this possible: bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Predictions for 2026: (i) the US will outgrow everyone, but the Dollar will fall; (ii) the Euro zone will resume its slide towards deflation; (iii) EM currencies will rally as the G10 EM-ifies; and (iv) the debasement trade will continue to roar ahead... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prediction...

Very well said!

Ukraine needs help in funding its military campaign as well as the basic costs of running a govt -- paying soldiers, pensions etc -- w/out resorting to money printing/hyperinflation. Trump is wrong to oppose the reparation loan. Europe will look lame, weak & pathetic if it doesn't go ahead now.

👍👍In the face of the greatest challenge to European security in decades, if Europe can't find a way to make the reparation loan, it will prove that Trump is totally right in stating that Europe is WEAK! It will put Ukraine at the mercy of the Trump Admin, a very bad outcome.

Due to unavoidable scheduling issues, this virtual session will now take place on Friday, December 12 at 10 a.m., EST Please sign up. omfif.org/meetings/dec...

To discuss the FOMC outcomes and US monetary/financial policy, Don Kohn, former Fed Vice-Chair, and Dennis Lockhart, ex-Atlanta Fed head, will join OMFIF on Thursday, December 11 at 10 am EST. Please sign up.👇 www.omfif.org/meetings/dec...

Japanese MOF FX policy seems riddled in inconsistency. Jawboning & intervention — doing something for sake of doing something, rather than problem solving for super weak yen. www.omfif.org/2025/12/japa...

Given where we are the real issue is not the US. It is whether Europe will sign off on the "reparation" loan. Europe claims to be strong & united. Yet with its physical security challenged by Russia, it can't find the wherewithal to provide the loan due to Belgian financial concerns. Go figure.

Absolutely spot on from Jay!

Ausgezeichnet! Bravo Kanzler!

An absolutely disgraceful embarrassment. Others should indeed express objections to US and boycott if needed.

Despite the disgraceful treatment of S. Africa & G20 by USA, the moribund G20 is not dead. Ironically, the US 2026 Presidency could revive a slimmed down G20. Here's a roadmap.👇Will Trump seize it? Thanks to Global Governance Project/G20 Research Group. www.omfif.org/2025/11/back...

Huge thanks to Jay for these kind words!

Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇 Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page. www.omfif.org/2025/11/its-...

Vlad Rashkovan, Ukraine’s IMF rep & former deputy NBU governor, joins OMFIF/me. We discuss Ukraine's current economic situation, military financing, energy & budget needs; IMF relations & program discussions; and ‘reparation’ loan. www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...

Outstanding explainer from Jay Shambaugh.

Trump/Xi Summit. A temporary pause amid decoupling & fragmentation. More tension on its way. Fundamental economic problems are not being addressed. They need a better way amid discord to speak to one another & keep a lid on pressures. www.omfif.org/2025/11/trum...

Trump/Japanese PM meeting. BOJ to meet. US Treasury's ex-Japan Financial Attache, Japanese econ expert and my former colleague, Matt Poggi, writes about Sanaenomics -- bridging Abenomics and New Capitalism. Huge thanks to Matt.👇 www.omfif.org/2025/10/sana...

The US Treasury & the Argentine $20 bn "swap". If the Administration is bent on proceeding, it should at least mitigate risks & do so carefully and sensibly.👇 www.omfif.org/2025/10/arge...

Congrats! Well deserved.

My IMF/WB Annual Meeting Scenesetter/curtain raiser. Dark times for the world (dis)order. Delegates may act as if it's business as usual, but it no longer is! www.omfif.org/2025/10/imf-...

Wow! Marco Annunziata & I somewhat agree. The Fed's econ & rate outlook may not add up. Is the Fed's quest for insurance vs labor market weakness underappreciating upside risks to inflation, accommodative fin conditions & the mystical neutral rate? 👇 www.omfif.org/2025/09/the-...

Interesting post! Per below. US obviously doesn't hold $ FX reserves. Our FX reserves are meager, held in euros & yen, split equally between Treasury/Fed.That is because the $ floats, we almost never intervene & FX reserves are only used for intervention to counter disorderly markets.

Bill Dudley joined me for a joint Bretton Woods Committee/OMFIF discussion on yest's FOMC outcome & monetary policy outlook.👇👇 Huge thanks to Bill, & two wonderful discussants: Ellen Meade (ex-Fed, now Duke U & James Egelhof (BNP Paribas/ex-FRBNY). www.omfif.org/live/?_page=15

The Fed has missed its 2% inflation target for years. Despite the assumption inflation will revert to 2%, short & long term forces abound, pushing up inflation. Is the US stealthily creeping toward a 3% inflation regime? 👇 www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...

Absolutely right. Too much talk and not enough action!

A guest OMFIF commentary from my friend and colleague, Marco Annunziata. He asks, is there any hope for Europe? His answer -- NO! Huge thanks to Marco. www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...

Spot on from Brad. Totally right that tariffs can be rewired. Two added points: 1) that Admin might need to pay back IEEPA tariffs is a big deal for Bessent et al; 2) I find odd that alleged trade deficit emergency isn't drawing more attention to our whopping fiscal deficits given S-I identity.