Interesting post! Per below. US obviously doesn't hold $ FX reserves. Our FX reserves are meager, held in euros & yen, split equally between Treasury/Fed.That is because the $ floats, we almost never intervene & FX reserves are only used for intervention to counter disorderly markets.

Bill Dudley joined me for a joint Bretton Woods Committee/OMFIF discussion on yest's FOMC outcome & monetary policy outlook.👇👇 Huge thanks to Bill, & two wonderful discussants: Ellen Meade (ex-Fed, now Duke U & James Egelhof (BNP Paribas/ex-FRBNY). www.omfif.org/live/?_page=15

The Fed has missed its 2% inflation target for years. Despite the assumption inflation will revert to 2%, short & long term forces abound, pushing up inflation. Is the US stealthily creeping toward a 3% inflation regime? 👇 www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...

Absolutely right. Too much talk and not enough action!

A guest OMFIF commentary from my friend and colleague, Marco Annunziata. He asks, is there any hope for Europe? His answer -- NO! Huge thanks to Marco. www.omfif.org/2025/09/is-t...

Spot on from Brad. Totally right that tariffs can be rewired. Two added points: 1) that Admin might need to pay back IEEPA tariffs is a big deal for Bessent et al; 2) I find odd that alleged trade deficit emergency isn't drawing more attention to our whopping fiscal deficits given S-I identity.

My thoughts in the NYT on where we stand now with the Fed. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/o...

Honorary Alphavillain Lee Buchheit on what is shaping up to be ANOTHER sovereign debt restructuring lawsuit of the century Yes, it involves Argentina again. Obvs. on.ft.com/41jlTju

A reminder: Dr. Cook's mortgages are not the real issue. The threat to US macro stability is the clear intention of the Trump Admin to influence the composition of the FOMC in defiance of the structures designed to insulate the institution from such influence. Thank you for coming to my TED talk

Major bond markets face deep pain & trouble. Many bond traders and holders are going to lose their shirts. There is no easy way out of today's budget messes without enormous pain. Society is in denial & more populism/despair is on the way. 👇 www.omfif.org/2025/08/fisc...

A gaggle of European leaders rushing to see Trump to protect not only Ukraine but their own hides from being sold out to Putin shows how weak Europe unfortunately is on the global stage. And half-baked Alaska shows America has lost its way & marbles.👇 www.omfif.org/2025/08/the-...

Thank you, Gov DeWine. It's recognized in the DMV that Cleveland, for example, is a safe, crime-free, utopian panacea & veritable garden spot of the world. Please have your troops help bring Cleveland to DC!

Beyond talk, Merz should join the Zelensky/Trump meetings and any future Summits.

This is a wonderful thought piece. Very relevant and sound conclusions.

Great piece by Mark Copelovitch!!

Thanks for circulating this piece and the kind words.

It's high time for significant appreciation of a hyper-undervalued RMB. My thoughts on why China should move now to make it happen.👇 www.omfif.org/2025/08/its-...

Great article and a perspective that decidedly warrants close consideration and reflection!

The IMF's External Sector Report falls short mainly b/c the Fund soft pedals its China work. It needs to take a stand on China's BOP data or multilaterally consistent #s won't add up. It should berate US more over misguided fiscal/trade policy. My thoughts👇 www.omfif.org/2025/07/flaw...

Ahead of the jobs report @bencasselman.bsky.social and I looked into how Trump's immigration policies make it hard for the Fed to know if the labor market is weakening, putting a divided central bank in a more fraught position as it debates rate cuts www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b... @nytimes.com

Official gold diversification & the feverish run-up in gold prices could be built on sand. It's largely b/c authorities keep massive stocks off market, ineptly managing national balance sheets. Time for authorities to sell gold stocks & use the proceeds. www.omfif.org/2025/07/fina...

Thanks for using OMFIF survey as one of your sources.

Great thread. Thanks for wading through this for readers. Extremely valuable.

Wow! Thanks.

A belated, wonky, soporific & arcane piece for diehard US Treasury and FX watchers. Where Bessent's Trump 2.0 inaugural FX report gets it right & falls short in not connecting the dots. www.omfif.org/2025/06/bess...

G7 faces existential crisis at Kananaskis.👇 www.omfif.org/2025/06/the-...

You can lie about statistics and you can make up assumptions. But numbers must add up. It's called arithmetic.

Global imbalances are B-A-C-K. A US/G7 focus. But what lies behind today's imbalances is different than two decades ago. China/US remain at the heart, but China's contribution is different & the US is a far bigger problem. www.omfif.org/2025/05/toda...

Nice piece! US interest rates rising, dollar easing, massive budget deficits need to be financed, Rs promise to defend dollar’s reserve role. The BBB answer — penalize foreign investment in the US! What??? How dumb is that???

Excellent piece, worth reading!

Some thoughts on the Fed framework review and Fed communications. Too much of a good thing? www.omfif.org/2025/05/fed-...

Vlad Rashkovan, Ukraine’s IMF rep & former central bank deputy governor, joined me/OMFIF, to discuss Ukraine's econ progress including with the IMF, future econ orientation, donor & reconstruction needs & disposition of blocked Russian CB/oligarch assets. www.omfif.org/videos/ukrai...

Scott Bessent’s first 100 days. Despite seemingly playing a behind-the-scenes role in curbing fallout from some of the Admin’s chaotic policies, Bessent’s start has been less than lustrous. 👇 Do readers agree? www.omfif.org/2025/05/bess...

The dollar’s future was the buzz at the IMF/WB Spring Meetings. Paraphrasing Mark Twain, reports of the dollar’s death are exaggerated. But then again, Team Trump appears to want to kneecap the dollar. 👇 Agree of disagree? www.omfif.org/2025/04/are-...

Paul Blustein joins OMFIF/me to discuss his latest book, “King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency.” We discuss why the dollar dominates, alternatives, stablecoins, cryptocurrency, financial sanctions, and what Trump may mean for the $. www.omfif.org/podcast/will...

And also re-upping this piece with the start of the IMF/WB Spring Meetings on why the IMF is a fantastic deal for America, thanks to THE HILL. thehill.com/opinion/fina...

With delegates across the globe coming to DC for the IMF/WB Spring Meetings, re-upping this scenesetter piece. www.omfif.org/2025/04/sear...

Huge thanks to THE HILL for running this piece on why the IMF is a fantastic deal for America. A great joy to be reunited with former colleagues Meg Lundsager and Elizabeth Shortino in support of the Fund. thehill.com/opinion/fina...

The upcoming IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings. Stagflation, trade mayhem, global market chaos. Some scenesetting thoughts.👇 www.omfif.org/2025/04/sear...

Wake me up when it happens.

Great piece by Steve Kamin.

Risk-free ... Almost ... on.ft.com/3XQvfBo

Congrats to Brent!

Dynamic duo! Two of the very best international political economy commentators on global monetary issues.

Once again, your regular reminder that 🇨🇳 & the RMB cannot replace 🇺🇸 & the USD at the center of the international monetary/financial system while Xi/🇨🇳 insist on running massive current account surpluses, subsiding exports through its state-owned financial system, & using extensive capital controls.

Trump's destructive wrongheaded trade war, the global market/economic shock and shattering America's soft power and Pax Americana.👇👇 Other than that, what's not to like? My thoughts. www.omfif.org/2025/04/trum...

Are Trump's machinations a manifestation of brilliant realpolitik strategic thinking or are analysts engaged in fantastical post hoc flights of fancy to rationalize and put a pretty bow on winging it and chaos?

Great Saleha Mohsin work. Delighted Miran says Mar-a-Lago ideas not now part of Trump agenda. Pushing others to buy zero coupons, user fees etc would hurt US Treasuries. He never says if outsized US fisc deficits, not just reserve role, help explain "overvalued" $. www.youtube.com/watch?v=YP8i...

Steve Kamin and yours truly on Stephen Miran's paper on a Mar-a-Lago Accord. Huge thanks to Robin Wigglesworth.

Steve Kamin (AEI, ex-Fed international finance chief) and yours truly on why Trump is undermining the underpinnings of the dollar's global financing and reserve currency role. www.omfif.org/2025/03/trum...