Americans are in a decidedly bad mood. The stock market is decidedly not. www.wsj.com/economy/cons...

What kind of labor market are young college graduates entering? @joe-fast.bsky.social and I just published an @epi.org series digging in on that question. Key findings: - noncollege and college unemployment rising - a college degree is losing its edge - AI is no more to blame than a low hires rate

About that job market for college grads... www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

But in gasoline-adjusted terms, just 2%

World nominal GDP is now around $125 trillion

The unemployment rate is low. The stock market is high. Consumer spending is healthy. But ask Americans how they’re doing, and you’d think we were in a recession. on.wsj.com/4cJH6Yq

With so many people thinking the job market is going to deteriorate, you'd think there was a recession going on www.wsj.com/economy/most...

quite a chart

During the Depression, college football teams held games to raise money for charity. Now, all you have to do is give to the www.edsbscharitybowl.com. As your donation processes, read this unhinged 1931 story that starts with a terrible wedding analogy and ends with... well, you'll see.

More than a year into President Trump’s immigration crackdown, there is little evidence of widespread disruptions in the labor market, or of meaningful benefits to American workers. on.wsj.com/4w2H339

Love how places like the Keweenaw light up here

Jon Faust, Powell's former senior advisor, with some thoughts on Warsh... krieger.jhu.edu/financial-ec...

Happy The-Strait-Is-Fully-Open Day to all who celebrate

Exclusive: President Trump has repeatedly promised his top administration officials pardons before he leaves office, according to people who have heard his comments. on.wsj.com/3PTqciC

Inflation accelerated to 3.3% in March, the hottest reading in two years.

Sector breakdown on jobs

Things like this make me wish I lived in Boston

A new paper from Fed board economists concludes that breakeven job growth is near zero "It would not be unusual for there to be one or more months in 2026 with declines in total payroll employment as large as -100,000 jobs, even if economic output was growing at the rate of potential output growth"

The dirty tanker index is waaaay above the highest level it hit after Russia invaded Ukraine www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

Sure, the inflation-adjusted level of gasoline is much lower than the past, but the change in prices over the past five weeks is pretty darn big even in inflation adjusted terms www.wsj.com/economy/cons...

"Honestly, it feels like a funeral in the office." How work life got so terrible.

my boss is awesome, 100/10 would recommend

Prediction is hard

After Claudia Goldin became the first woman to win a solo Nobel in economics, she got hundreds of invitations. She accepted three. One was advising WNBA players on a labor deal. She helped players land the biggest % raise in US sports history. www.wsj.com/economy/wnba...

“You’re passing by hundreds, thousands of people, and they’re all cheering you on,” she said. “That’s bigger than getting the Nobel.” Story w/ @realbachscore.bsky.social www.wsj.com/economy/wnba...

Will AI end up being skills-biased? A survey of CFOs suggests yes. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-a...

New in WSJ Growing Frustration With Chuck Schumer Spurs Talk of Replacing Him www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Never underestimate the abilities of a great survey field professional

I talk about minimum wage and monopsony in this Wall Street Journal piece. www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

More of both here :-) www.thewagestandard.com

Interesting article about research into the effect of the minimum wage on employment By www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

“Fortunately, only a handful of economists are willing to throw over the teaching of two centuries; we have not yet become a bevy of camp-following whores." James Buchanan in a letter to The Wall Street Journal in 1996. www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

In our latest economic survey for @wsj.com, the average recession probability has ticked up to 32% but the consensus is that the economy is resilient enough to weather the oil supply disruption—provided crude doesn't rise above above $138/barrel for a sustained period. www.wsj.com/economy/econ...

Wall Street economists' forecasts for growth and unemployment have barely budged since January, despite the war www.wsj.com/economy/econ...

In spring 2022, we were back from the pandemic, and I'll never forget how a bright Cal student pointed out the missing history of Dolores Huerta's role with the UFW. "It's like she was erased," the student remarked at the time. Now we all know why. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/u...

So weird: there's more than one scammy memorial site inviting donations or tree-planting in my dad's memory. We are not asking for that, but if people feel moved, donations in lieu of flowers to www.aclu-mn.org, www.aclu.org, or www.eff.org Econ folks, can you help get the word out?

Et tu, Crude? (Happy Ides of March everybody)

Preliminary Umich survey period straddled the start of the war. Interesting breakdown on gasoline and inflation expectations =

Iran War Will Lower Energy Prices By Peter Navarro "Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits the Persian Gulf.... When markets price crude oil, they must account for the risk that conflict, sabotage and terrorism will interrupt these flows." www.wsj.com/opinion/iran...

This obituary for Karen Petrou is well worth your time www.wsj.com/business/kar...

is it laziness, illiteracy or the ultimate flex ? missives from titans of business and politics show a striking disregard for spelling, punctuation and proper grammar

To give you a sense of how big a deal this is: Summers’ PhD advisor made NBER what it is today

Larry Summers is no longer part of the NBER www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s and sending oil prices soaring nearly 60%.

This Goldman chart is not aging well

How the WSJ Tracked Claims of Assault Against Immigration Agents on.wsj.com/3PmWPoi

My redo of the chart CEA used to do way back when

Today's weak jobs report underscores that the Iran war comes at a fragile time for the economy. Before the war, low gasoline prices were helping tame inflation, and mortgage rates were edging down. Now gas prices and mortgage rates are ticking up. www.wsj.com/economy/cons...

A whole bunch more old people in these American states, apparently (click through to see revision) alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=...