U.S. officials and lawmakers with access to classified information say the Trump administration’s assertions about threats from Iran are incomplete, unsubstantiated, or flat-out wrong. 🔗 on.wsj.com/3MUdsqQ

Core goods excluding used cars and trucks. Maybe some tariff pass through there.

News: The top-secret whistleblower complaint against Tulsi Gabbard is related to a conversation intercepted last spring in which two foreign nationals discussed Jared Kushner, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

The mixed jobs picture reflects surging demand for people in healthcare and social services but a bleaker environment for government employees, factory workers and cubicle dwellers.

healthcare ftw

I'm pleased to share the release of the 2026 International AI Safety Report, for which I was a reviewer. The report represents the largest global collaboration on AI safety to date. Learn more here: internationalaisafetyreport.org/publication/...

Punk control sales in Dec., and downward revisions to Oct. and Nov.

Spelling bee only uses base R

The pace of hiring in America has dropped precipitously, and there isn’t a single reason why. Instead, there are a lot of them. www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

My hot take on space-based AI is that a lot of people think that @greatdismal.bsky.social was writing guidebooks

Some substantial ADP revisions

For markets reporters, Howard was indispensable. www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

Something happen here?

New work from @oppinsights.bsky.social finds that the HOPE VI program improved kids outcomes. The reason: Whereas the projects HOPE VI replaced were isolated from the surrounding community, the new housing wasn't. 1/2 www.wsj.com/economy/hous...

Heard on the Street: Even in the delirium of meme-stock trading, Regencell Bioscience is an outlier.

Millions of Americans are starting to see their monthly health-insurance bills rise, a new pressure point for a nation still frustrated with the high cost of living.

Alex Pretti, the man fatally shot by a Border Patrol officer in Minneapolis, was described by the Trump administration as a “domestic terrorist,” but friends and family rejected that label.

Videos Contradict U.S. Account of Minneapolis Shooting by Federal Agents www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...

Economists will tell you that it is a tough time for people entering the job market. They can relate: It is the worst market young economists have faced in memory.

New Substack post: The wage compression that persisted. arindube.substack.com/p/the-wage-c...

Here's an even longer version of that chart

America’s unemployment rate is low. But so is its job growth. That means many Americans are locked out of stable, full-time jobs, and many are struggling. “We just want work,” said Glenn Jones, who is on a waiting list for to drive for DoorDash. “Any work.” www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

Lunch break at a Paris work site in the 1930s. In 1934, French wine consumption exceeded 160 liters per capita (it’s about 40 liters today).

Story idea: Find a worker building data centers named Claude. Estimate how much Claude is boosting U.S. productivity.

The endowment effect on this one is off the charts #ASSA2026

If anyone wants to spot a reporter going to #ASSA2026, I’ll be the one on the train from NY reading a novel

You will be visited by three spirits

Christmas-tree sales go K-shaped www.wsj.com/business/ret...

The shaded areas in this chart run through Nov. 2016, and Dec. 2020 through Nov. 2024. What is it?

Correcting earlier chart - hires minus separations

Real curious what holiday-season retail sales are looking like in Detroit vs. Windsor areas this year.

Goldman on claims: "In previous Thanksgiving weeks with a similar calendar configuration to this year’s, non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) initial claims have fallen by about 45k. This year, initial claims fell by 49k on a NSA basis, but the seasonal factor only expected a 22k decline."

I can only assume Meta is going to rename itself Generative

For context, employment in "semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing" was 368 thousand in September, according to BLS.

The average price Harvard paid couldn’t be learned but if the school still holds some or all of the 4.9 million shares it bought last quarter, the best-case scenario would be a 14% loss on those holdings. www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...

Lawrence Summers has been banned for life by the American Economics Association, in a further blow to the former Treasury Secretary and Harvard University president stemming from recent revelations about his ties to the late Jeffrey Epstein.

wow

I've got a lotta problems with you people!

Dec SOFR futures are based on average compounded rate over the month, so pushing the meeting back could mess with markets

Soft US #Retail sales in September 🟠Sales +0.2% ⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.1% ⛔️Core sales -0.1% ⛔️Volumes -0.4% ⛽️Gas 2.0% ⚕️Health 1.1% 👩‍🍳Rest/bar 0.7% 🛋️Furn 0.6% 🛒Groc 0.2% 🏠Build mat 0.2% 🏬Merch 0.1% 🚗Auto -0.3% 🎮Elec -0.5% 💻Online -0.7% 👗Cloth -0.7% ⚽️Sports -2.5%

“There is no world where this makes any sense,” said David Autor, one of the MIT professors who had previously championed his student’s research. www.wsj.com/economy/aida...

"We monitor many frequencies. We listen always. Came a voice, out of the babel of tongues, speaking to us. It played us a mighty dub."

Just imagining what this might do to December interest-rate futures, which are based on average monthly levels - especially for what is very much a live meeting

Strong signal about December FOMC meeting from NY Fed President John Williams. Rate cut likely.

Page One: @wsj.com

After nearly five years of high prices, many middle-class earners are weary. Wasn’t life supposed to be more affordable by now?

Breaking: Larry Summers is taking a leave from teaching at Harvard after criticism over his correspondence with Jeffrey Epstein.