The big story we're missing about AI is the opportunity cost of having all the electricians build data centers instead of constructing power plants or electrifying homes. OpenAI claims it needs 20% of US electricians and mechanics! www.latitudemedia.com/news/openai-...

A quarter of the power added in the US this year will be batteries--four times as much batteries as gas. This is your fossil fuel king? www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

We've made such progress on climate change that we've cleared the very high bar of "less bad than a extinction-level meteor"

A great day for addressing symptoms and not causes

We usually assess the climate crisis by a single metric: greenhouse gas emissions. But that’s just one metric, and it’s not enough. Assuming that humans control a “global thermostat,” says @noahjgordon.bsky.social, is dangerous. Noah explains why for Emissary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

The oceans and land mop up about half of the carbon that humans emit. Until they don't. My new piece on the weakening of natural carbon sinks, and the fallacy that we humans have our hands on a global thermostat, is out now for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

The oceans and land mop up about half of the carbon that humans emit. Until they don't. My new piece on the weakening of natural carbon sinks, and the fallacy that we humans have our hands on a global thermostat, is out now for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

The best thread of the year? The best thread of the year.

Graphic of the day: Earth's drift towards climate tipping points. Humans determine the fate of the energy transition, not the climate. The thermostat can easily slip out of our hands.

‘Lord, limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, but not yet.’” IPCC chair Jim Skea dropping bars

It's useful to compare the required speed of potential climate solutions to the fastest ever transformations driven by the profit motive. Left is @bentleyallan.bsky.social (w/me), on minerals Right is Turner et al in Nature, on BECCS

Are you reading The Long Heat yet? Natura facit saltus... @wimcarton.bsky.social

Argentina edition of Libertarian bible

This is my quant

We talk about CO2 emissions, but we really care about CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. If the land & oceans no longer soak up half of the carbon humans emit--and the land sink disappeared in 2023--we are in a whole new ballgame. 2024 saw the biggest increase ever.

The US is threatening all those who support the IMO carbon tax. This is rogue state behavior

“The U.S. Empire’s boomerang is not confined to the 19th and 20th centuries… Today, local police forces cruise around small U.S. towns in bomb-proof quasi-tanks recycled from Iraq and Afghanistan.”

I'm putting together a team

Tomorrow!

Join me to discuss combatting the New Climate Denialism at @carnegieendowment.org this Wednesday, Oct 1 in DC or online, along with my co-panelists @jeremywallace.bsky.social, @cathfraser.bsky.social, @leonardom-d.bsky.social, @noahjgordon.bsky.social and more. carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/...

Free speech is back in the USA 🦅🚀

Now including @ben-beachy.bsky.social

China plans once again to underpromise and overdeliver. Great to have Lili on this beat!

Want to defeat the New Climate Denialism? Join us next week in DC or online! October 1, 3:30-5pm and then drinks. Speakers include @gretchentg.bsky.social @jeremywallace.bsky.social @cathfraser.bsky.social @leonardom-d.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/... @carnegieendowment.org

"The sun may not always shine and the wind may not always blow, but neither can they be halted by an embargo or balance-of-payments crisis." lines I wish I'd thought of carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

This is a useful clarification of the term "electrostate." Gordon emphasizes consumption, which is important. But production is what shapes geopolitical power and strategic independence. This definition of "electrostate" can't include all countries. But it implicates politics more directly.

A New Climate Denialism is sweeping the USA. Its proponents misunderstand that clean energy will take over no matter what America does and that it's not possible to adapt to 3°C. Our alternative approach is called Climate Clarity carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

“Electrostate” is “the geopolitical buzzword of the year,” says @noahjgordon.bsky.social, especially in regard to China. But when writers say “electrostate,” are they using it right? And why does that matter? Noah explains, for Emissary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

This.

"Electrostate" is the energy buzzword of the year. But the term has two meanings, and policymakers risk picking the wrong one. Production or consumption? My new piece for the Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org

"Greenlash"? There's a backlash against climate social movements, with citizens turning against regulations in Europe and carbon pricing in Canada & Australia. Two new pieces today in our @carnegieendowment.org series on the future of climate activism. carnegieendowment.org/programs/sus...

Incisive writing here on the "central bank independence" that Trump is undermining. Can't help but think about this from a climate perspective, as climate policymaking, like inflation, suffers from a time inconsistency and credibility problem. What would a "climate Fed" do?

The Pakistani solar boom continues to fascinate. In 2022 gas-hungry Europe outbid Pakistan for LNG, plunging it into blackouts. In 2025 Pakistan has so much solar it's delaying LNG shipments and trying to sell excess gas. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Wrote this for the Carnegie Endowment on the criminalisation of climate protest

Why don't more climate activists turn to sabotage? My new piece for The Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Many global south countries are on track to overtake the global north in terms of electricity as a share of final energy consumption. Call it the big leapfrog.

What's the story of the last few years in clean energy? Grid tech got more expensive 🔼 Solar, batteries, and wind got cheaper 🔽 Minerals prices spiked and then fell▶️ IEA doing incredible work again in World Energy Investment 2025

If you can't make electrotech like solar and batteries, you can't really make drones or robots either. @kyleichan.bsky.social and the @ember-energy.org team are making the same point.

Want to know what is at stake in your state orcongressional district? Generate a custom report from our data at this link: www.the-big-green-machine.com/custom-reports

The IRA is on death row. It's notable how Europeans who criticized the "America-first" bill in 2022 now see nothing to gain from repeal--it turns out US investment in clean energy is good for Europe, which exports a lot of clean technology goods. data from @sandertordoir.bsky.social

We've relaunched our Carnegie Climate Protest Tracker, which now tracks over 300 mass climate protests since 2022. carnegieendowment.org/features/cli...

Bush-era climate politics from our guy Tony Blair. The world is already relying on carbon capture to grow from millions of tons per year to billions. We already played our get-out-of-jail free card by including it in models!

Only 15% of China-made batteries are exported, and only 25% of those go to the US. The worry for China's cleantech sector is not so much the US tariffs but rather the possible global recession.

Climate has bad timing in the US. Just when a window opens for action, a world event slams it shut: the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, the 1998 Lewinsky scandal, the 2008 financial crash. Don't miss David Lipsky's the Parrot & the Whale, a history of denial--look at the writing.

How will the trade war affect the energy transition? It's bad news for batteries, transformers, and permanent magnets--but the oil industry is suffering too. My new piece for @carnegieendowment.org: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Energy Dominance! www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

BNEF thinks that 2024 *may* have been the year energy-related CO2 emissions finally peaked. We've been fooled before, but the trade war and recession of 2025 should slow emissions too (in an unproductive way).

Migrant workers in the US are rushing to send remittances home before they are deported. Remittances to El Salvador, the host of the new US gulag, are up 14% this year.

Everyone is talking about the need to power data centers, but people using air conditioners and fans is a bigger driver of electricity demand growth globally, especially in India and China. Data centers are relatively more important in the US.

New levels of denialism from the White House. We're doing scare quotes around "climate change" in 2025. whitehouse.gov/presidential...