Operative sentence is 9 paragraphs into this story: "Some European leaders hinted at lingering concerns that all the diplomatic work with the Americans could be irrelevant if the fundamental disputes between Russia and Ukraine cannot be resolved." www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/w...

According to leak, 4 documents are under discussion: -agreement between Ukraine, Russia, US, "Europe"; -security "assurances" (not guarantees) for Ukraine; -US commitments to NATO; -US-Russia agreement. Nobody comes out looking good in this scathing analysis: zn.ua/eng/trumps-n...

“There were people who, unfortunately, were deported because they did not receive asylum. These are people who hold opposition views—people who have pro-democratic, pro-European views, and it is a great tragedy.” www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/10/a...

Fun fact: The European Union won the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize for "advancing peace, reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe." I guess another reason to hate the EU and want a Nobel Peace Prize. www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace...

Nothing too new in latest Trump interview: -Russia big, Ukraine smaller, Europe weak. -Ukraine should have elections. (Note: Answer to yes/no question.) -Sea of Azov coast is "seafront," Crimea an east European Florida. -Zelensky is a salesman (weird insult coming from Trump).

Ok let's talk about where we are with Russia/Ukraine. My latest for Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/amer.... The key thing is understanding American national interests. Should be straightforward but, evidently, it's not.

My opinion on the corruption scandal in Ukraine #Ukraine www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Translation guide to Kremlin comments on Witkoff trip: -crisis=war; -we agreed to continue contacts=no rush; -these talks were strictly confidential=earlier leak was intentional; -Witkoff & Kushner promised to go straight back to DC=Europe/Ukraine irrelevant. en.kremlin.ru/events/presi...

I used to cover Putin as a reporter for Bloomberg. The stagecraft was meticulous—vetted questions, staged encounters and elaborate backdrops. As Trump pushes for a deal, Putin is giving him a show.

Putin keeps saying the same things: -Hostilities end when Ukrainian troops "leave the territories they occupy"; -Pointless to sign documents with illegitimate Ukrainian leadership; -World powers need to recognize "certain territories" as Russian. en.kremlin.ru/events/presi...

How will Yermak's exit affect Ukraine's negotiating position? Maybe not hugely—I hear the Trump administration has welcomed Umerov taking on a lead role as interlocutor this year. The question is what happens if Umerov also has to go. kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-ch...

Often overlooked in Ukraine peace talks is the fundamental difference between the two sides: Zelensky represents the Ukrainian people and must fear their wrath; Putin represents only himself—the difference between a country of citizens and a country of subjects.

The question I get asked most often is how to understand Trump's push-me-pull-me Ukraine policy. To me there are a few constants that don't change: 1) He really wants to end the war fast. Results over process. 2) He respects Putin and wants a good relationship with Russia. 👉

"To Putin, this proposal is proof of his victory. If the US is offering terms like these, then in his view it has surrendered and is ready to accept his demands," says Boris Bondarev, who quit Russia's diplomatic service in protest over the war. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/21/t...

"Ageing and declining capacity within the senior ranks further deepen the crisis inside Putin's governance system. Lavrov turned 75 this year, and the president's foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, is 78." nestcentre.org/the-crisis-o...

Kremlinology 101, by Alexander Baunov: "The failure of the Budapest summit is the result of the Russian system of artificially creating a foreign policy crisis. When one such crisis proves insufficient to intimidate the enemy, a new one is needed." carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Pokrovsk, Ukraine. Portrait of a city in war by Tyler Hicks. View for free: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/w...

Rewatched Aki Kaurismäki’s “Le Havre” (2011). It does not pretend to offer any solutions to the migration crisis, but it does answer the question of how to retain your humanity when a destitute stranger washes up on your doorstep. As timely as ever. www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqhA...

I've often heard about wounded Ukrainian troops getting evacuated by robots but never understood exactly how. No longer—this brilliant piece of reporting by C.J. Chivers is a harrowing trip into the kill zone and back. Read for free: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/m...

When in doubt, say that you've tested another nuclear weapon.

Pokrovsk is on the brink—one more reason Putin doesn't want a ceasefire now. "Pokrovsk faces its own final act in an environment of asphyxiating drone saturation at a level we have not seen in previous battles," warns Francis Farrell. kyivindependent.com/analysis-pok...

No, Putin's phone call didn't sink a big Tomahawk announcement. But Trump heard Zelensky ask for weapons while Putin suggested more summitry. We are not back to square one but at least back to Anchorage. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...

The chill in the Trump-Putin relationship, if there ever was one, is over. With today's phone call, and a follow-on summit in Budapest, Putin will have the first and last word on Zelensky's White House meeting. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...

Putin is right about one thing—the root causes of Russia's war against Ukraine will not go away. Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...

Putin is right about one thing—the root causes of Russia's war against Ukraine will not go away. Now you can listen to my book on the war's origins, from what really happened in 2014 to the fateful steps leading up to the full-scale invasion. Sample here: rbmediaglobal.com/audiobook/97...

Join @crisisgroup.org for a 7-minute tour of Africa, from São Tomé and Príncipe to Libya and Mali, tracing the growing reach of Russia's Africa Corps (né Wagner). www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0yI...

My thoughts on the Quantico meeting

As someone who has covered Putin for 20+ years, I'm always surprised by how much speculation surrounds his intentions. Although Putin dissembles, he also says what he thinks—it's just that people don't want to hear him. Here's what he said today about Zelensky and a peace deal:

"First they swarm us with drones and bomb drops. Then they come in to clear the position. We hear their voices, it's usually two of them, and the firefight starts." Essential reporting on the Ukrainian troops holding the line, by @francisjfarrell. kyivindependent.com/behind-ukrai...

President lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0Pd...

Mid-August's flurry of news, speculation, & summitry made it hard to keep track of reality. To help, we've got last week's commentary from @crisisgroup.org's @luciankim.bsky.social & Oleg Ignatov on the underlying facts of the present stage of the Russo-Ukrainian war & attendant diplomacy. A 🧵. 1/12

President lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0Pd...

Worth noting is Lavrov's remark that Putin recognizes Zelensky as "de facto head of regime" and is ready to meet with him—but that when the time comes to sign any agreement, there will need to be a Ukrainian representative deemed legitimate by the Kremlin. Remember that.

(Also, it is incorrect to say WW2, like all major conflicts, was settled by some kind of negotiation. Both Germany and Japan surrendered unconditionally and faced military occupation; their opinion did not count.)

JD Vance boils disagreement down to security guarantees (critical to Ukraine) vs. borders (critical to Russia). Yes for Kyiv, no for Moscow. Putin doesn't want new territories per se; he wants to revassilize Ukraine—that is the crux of the conflict. www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...

Almost no news in NBC's 50-minute Lavrov interview, an avalanche of Kremlin talking points ("2014 coup", "Nazis") and denials "no civilian targeting", "no Bucha"). Lavrov seemed uncharacteristically nervous, twisting a paper clip for a good part of the interview.

JD Vance boils disagreement down to security guarantees (critical to Ukraine) vs. borders (critical to Russia). Yes for Kyiv, no for Moscow. Putin doesn't want new territories per se; he wants to revassilize Ukraine—that is the crux of the conflict. www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...

Almost no news in NBC's 50-minute Lavrov interview, an avalanche of Kremlin talking points ("2014 coup", "Nazis") and denials "no civilian targeting", "no Bucha"). Lavrov seemed uncharacteristically nervous, twisting a paper clip for a good part of the interview.

I'm reminded of the curse during the Bosnian war: "May your house appear on CNN." Now they're showing Dobropillia, the hometown of my best Ukrainian friend, on BBC. People always think war is someone else's misfortune until it comes, as always, uninvited. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Question 2: How likely is a trilateral summit? Putin disdains Zelensky, who defied him by staying alive and fighting back. The Europeans' support for a "trilat" seems to be one way of getting behind Trump and heaving the ball back into Putin's court after Anchorage.

Trump's biggest problem is that he's in a rush—that's why he's so bendy on an immediate ceasefire before talks. You can hear Putin in Anchorage saying: "But you don't just want a ceasefire, you want an end to the war, just like I do!"

In the big meeting, the Europeans' investment in Trump is paying off. Trump is gracious and warm, no trace of the hostility that caused panic in Europe in February, even as Vance and Hegseth sit in the wings.

Credit goes to Europeans—especially Starmer, Rutte, Stubb, Macron, Merz—not only for coaching Zelensky but also for giving Trump a crash course on the value of allies, even if they had to package it as "NATO is now buying US weapons."

Flashes of déjà vu as Zelensky is put on the hot seat in the White House. But this time Zelensky wore a jacket, profusely thanked Trump and let him do most of the talking. It went fine. (Putin is lucky Trump didn't unleash the press on him in Anchorage.)

European leaders are beginning to arrive at White House, starting with Ursula von der Leyen, who is probably tied with Zelenskyy as Trump's least favorite guest today. Lots of military pageantry, very short red carpet.

Lots of talk about NATO's Article 5. It's only two paragraphs long and says an attack on one is an attack on all. It does NOT say members automatically go to war against the aggressor, each can choose "such action as it deems necessary." www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

Have you seen this movie before? Trump demands immediate ceasefire, threatens sanctions, then has an "excellent" conversation with Putin after which he says he wants what Putin wants. Yes, you saw it back in May:

Scant news in much-touted Hannity interview with Trump except: -The only one-on-one chat (besides in The Beast) was after press briefing; -Putin laid it on thick telling Trump he lost in 2020 because of mail-in ballots; -Yes, Trump will push Zelensky to accept some sort of deal.

PS: Despite all the rumors of US-Russian business deals in the works, it seems economic ties were very secondary. And surprisingly there was not even mention of the need for US and Russia to restart arms control talks. This summit was about Ukraine.

We’ll find out a lot more about the summit in the coming days once Trump gives his readout and the Ukrainians/Europeans react. But their worst fear of a backroom deal between Trump and Putin has not come to pass. Their hard work engaging Trump is paying off.