As someone who has covered Putin for 20+ years, I'm always surprised by how much speculation surrounds his intentions. Although Putin dissembles, he also says what he thinks—it's just that people don't want to hear him. Here's what he said today about Zelensky and a peace deal:

"First they swarm us with drones and bomb drops. Then they come in to clear the position. We hear their voices, it's usually two of them, and the firefight starts." Essential reporting on the Ukrainian troops holding the line, by @francisjfarrell. kyivindependent.com/behind-ukrai...

President lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0Pd...

Mid-August's flurry of news, speculation, & summitry made it hard to keep track of reality. To help, we've got last week's commentary from @crisisgroup.org's @luciankim.bsky.social & Oleg Ignatov on the underlying facts of the present stage of the Russo-Ukrainian war & attendant diplomacy. A 🧵. 1/12

President lifts golden weight bar in front of his applauding cabinet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0Pd...

Worth noting is Lavrov's remark that Putin recognizes Zelensky as "de facto head of regime" and is ready to meet with him—but that when the time comes to sign any agreement, there will need to be a Ukrainian representative deemed legitimate by the Kremlin. Remember that.

(Also, it is incorrect to say WW2, like all major conflicts, was settled by some kind of negotiation. Both Germany and Japan surrendered unconditionally and faced military occupation; their opinion did not count.)

JD Vance boils disagreement down to security guarantees (critical to Ukraine) vs. borders (critical to Russia). Yes for Kyiv, no for Moscow. Putin doesn't want new territories per se; he wants to revassilize Ukraine—that is the crux of the conflict. www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...

Almost no news in NBC's 50-minute Lavrov interview, an avalanche of Kremlin talking points ("2014 coup", "Nazis") and denials "no civilian targeting", "no Bucha"). Lavrov seemed uncharacteristically nervous, twisting a paper clip for a good part of the interview.

JD Vance boils disagreement down to security guarantees (critical to Ukraine) vs. borders (critical to Russia). Yes for Kyiv, no for Moscow. Putin doesn't want new territories per se; he wants to revassilize Ukraine—that is the crux of the conflict. www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...

Almost no news in NBC's 50-minute Lavrov interview, an avalanche of Kremlin talking points ("2014 coup", "Nazis") and denials "no civilian targeting", "no Bucha"). Lavrov seemed uncharacteristically nervous, twisting a paper clip for a good part of the interview.

I'm reminded of the curse during the Bosnian war: "May your house appear on CNN." Now they're showing Dobropillia, the hometown of my best Ukrainian friend, on BBC. People always think war is someone else's misfortune until it comes, as always, uninvited. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Question 2: How likely is a trilateral summit? Putin disdains Zelensky, who defied him by staying alive and fighting back. The Europeans' support for a "trilat" seems to be one way of getting behind Trump and heaving the ball back into Putin's court after Anchorage.

Trump's biggest problem is that he's in a rush—that's why he's so bendy on an immediate ceasefire before talks. You can hear Putin in Anchorage saying: "But you don't just want a ceasefire, you want an end to the war, just like I do!"

In the big meeting, the Europeans' investment in Trump is paying off. Trump is gracious and warm, no trace of the hostility that caused panic in Europe in February, even as Vance and Hegseth sit in the wings.

Credit goes to Europeans—especially Starmer, Rutte, Stubb, Macron, Merz—not only for coaching Zelensky but also for giving Trump a crash course on the value of allies, even if they had to package it as "NATO is now buying US weapons."

Flashes of déjà vu as Zelensky is put on the hot seat in the White House. But this time Zelensky wore a jacket, profusely thanked Trump and let him do most of the talking. It went fine. (Putin is lucky Trump didn't unleash the press on him in Anchorage.)

European leaders are beginning to arrive at White House, starting with Ursula von der Leyen, who is probably tied with Zelenskyy as Trump's least favorite guest today. Lots of military pageantry, very short red carpet.

Lots of talk about NATO's Article 5. It's only two paragraphs long and says an attack on one is an attack on all. It does NOT say members automatically go to war against the aggressor, each can choose "such action as it deems necessary." www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

Have you seen this movie before? Trump demands immediate ceasefire, threatens sanctions, then has an "excellent" conversation with Putin after which he says he wants what Putin wants. Yes, you saw it back in May:

Scant news in much-touted Hannity interview with Trump except: -The only one-on-one chat (besides in The Beast) was after press briefing; -Putin laid it on thick telling Trump he lost in 2020 because of mail-in ballots; -Yes, Trump will push Zelensky to accept some sort of deal.

PS: Despite all the rumors of US-Russian business deals in the works, it seems economic ties were very secondary. And surprisingly there was not even mention of the need for US and Russia to restart arms control talks. This summit was about Ukraine.

We’ll find out a lot more about the summit in the coming days once Trump gives his readout and the Ukrainians/Europeans react. But their worst fear of a backroom deal between Trump and Putin has not come to pass. Their hard work engaging Trump is paying off.

Trump was uncharacteristically pithy and got straight to the point: “There’s no deal until there’s a deal.” He said any decision was “ultimately” up to the Ukrainians and their European backers, cryptically mentioning one especially big sticking point. (Take a guess.)

Always ready to stir the pot of domestic US politics, Putin gave Trump a parting gift, laying blame for the war that he started with Biden (“my previous American colleague”) and saying Trump is right that had he been US president, it never would have happened.

Putin spoke first, reading from a statement. As always, he couldn’t help but delve into history, especially his favorite war, WW2. He was excessively flattering, and it was clear that his main goal was to revive bilateral relations and invite Trump to Moscow—which he did.

After a grandiose welcome, a rather skimpy finale. Putin spoke 8 minutes, more than twice as long Trump. The fact there were no questions afterwards is an indication of how many questions remain.

My president went to Alaska and all I got was this lousy CCCP T-shirt.

Putin just walked down the longest red carpet of his life to meet Trump, standing and clapping in front of AF1. They then get into Trump's car together. Unbelievable.

Putin is going to pull out all the stops in hailing US-Soviet cooperation in WW2. Before flying to Alaska, he paid a visit to the ALSIB (Alaska-Siberia) memorial commemorating the pilots who flew over American planes for the Red Army. en.kremlin.ru/events/presi...

Lots of speculation about what to expect from the Trump-Putin summit. But there are some immovable facts about this conflict that can give us guidance. Here I run through what Putin, Trump and Zelensky each want. The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Where does Ukraine stand on the cusp of a Trump-Putin summit? In this Q&A I discuss the most pressing questions concerning Ukraine's war effort, foreign relations—and domestic stability. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Later today Donald Trump is meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Trump promises that it will be an “official Peace Signing Ceremony.” Will it be? A background thread.

Where does Ukraine stand on the cusp of a Trump-Putin summit? In this Q&A I discuss the most pressing questions concerning Ukraine's war effort, foreign relations—and domestic stability. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Before meeting Trump, Putin gets all his ducks in a row, so to speak. All of these readouts of phone calls refer to his meeting with Witkoff and solving the "Ukraine crisis" or "situation surrounding Ukraine." en.kremlin.ru/events/presi...

Just a few days ago Ukrainians were assuring me that whatever complaints they had about Zelensky, they understood the need for a united front in wartime. Now it's unclear whether Zelensky can still count on national unity—a scenario the Kremlin has long been hoping for.

So exactly how many Patriots is Ukraine supposed to get—and where from? Thanks to ‪@politico.eu‬'s Rixa Fürsen for doing the math after Pistorius announced that "Germany will contribute to providing the 5 urgently-needed Patriot systems as quickly as possible": www.politico.eu/podcast/berl...

So exactly how many Patriots is Ukraine supposed to get—and where from? Thanks to ‪@politico.eu‬'s Rixa Fürsen for doing the math after Pistorius announced that "Germany will contribute to providing the 5 urgently-needed Patriot systems as quickly as possible": www.politico.eu/podcast/berl...

Fortunately I am not the only one. On an unobtrusive street corner is a makeshift memorial to the Lewin family—mother, father, daughter—who lived here until 1941, the year the Nazis began the mass deportations of Jews from Germany.

When I walk through Berlin, where I lived for more than a decade as a journalist, I often wonder: Who lived in all these buildings and how did they experience the rise and fall of the Third Reich?

When I walk through Berlin, where I lived for more than a decade as a journalist, I often wonder: Who lived in all these buildings and how did they experience the rise and fall of the Third Reich?

Another day, another bomb. My best Ukrainian friend says his hometown, Dobropillia, is "doomed." His mother recently fled under the threat of drones, but many of their friends and relatives remain, unwilling to accept that war is swallowing up their town. kyivindependent.com/russian-aeri...

Another day, another bomb. My best Ukrainian friend says his hometown, Dobropillia, is "doomed." His mother recently fled under the threat of drones, but many of their friends and relatives remain, unwilling to accept that war is swallowing up their town. kyivindependent.com/russian-aeri...

Trump gets to make the big announcement on US arms for Ukraine, but German fingerprints are all over the deal. Merz is working quietly but decisively. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Ukrainian journalists articulate what Ukraine's international backers are reluctant to say publicly: "The war can't be a pretext for undermining Ukraine's democracy—as well as for not calling out power abuse." kyivindependent.com/editorial-ri...

"It's in my brain, the deadline," Trump says during Merz meeting. He also says he hasn't yet looked at the Senate's sanctions bill: "They'll be guided by me." Translation: New sanctions (of debatable efficacy) are not even a threat; they are just another prop in Trump's theater.

Merz did his homework and gets an A+ for his Oval Office performance. He correctly identified the key to surviving the White House press scrum: let Trump do all the talking. (Presenting Trump with the gold-framed birth certificate of his paternal grandfather also helped.)

So what is Trump going to do about Ukraine? The biggest clue lies in his reposting of this op-ed, which says Congress should pass new sanctions bill against Russia, then let Trump threaten to implement it, i.e. give Putin a few more second chances. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

According to Kremlin, Trump told Putin that he would be grateful for Russian help in working with Iranians. Putin praised Trump for stopping wider conflict between India and Pakistan. And restoring US-Russian relations is still a common goal. kremlin.ru/events/presi...

Putin is trying old strategy of distracting from Ukraine by proposing to be indispensable Iran whisperer—just as he did during Obama's 2nd term. Interesting to think that Kremlin, in no hurry to talk with Ukraine, would help prod along Iranians. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...