On BBC this morning, with Catherine Barnard (Cambridge), and our wonderful host Julian Worricker. Talking about politics, sports, literature, art, and love.

If you’re in Italy, I’ll be doing three presentations there next week. On Monday October 27, I’ll do a book talk on The Party’s Interests Come First: the Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping in Milan at Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore aseri.unicatt.it/aseri-2025-t...

What will make Russia a "contented" power? And is the price worth paying? open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

Running the world *together* with the US? open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I explore an interesting idea that Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev presented to the Americans in 1994, and why he expected the United States to help Russia in rebuilding its sphere of influence.

Honored to interview President Yushchenko for my forthcoming book on the Russia-Ukraine war. It's important to understand the historical context of the Russian invasion. If we start in 2022, we risk missing out on the essential.

Holy smoke. This is something else: www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o.... If you read anything today, read this. Just ordered the book.

Together with my brilliant RA Peter Sies (SAIS-2024) (R) had a very candid, interesting meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz (C). This is all part of my big project on the history of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which will eventually lead to a very big book.

I have a new piece with The Guardian where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Karaganov on Ukraine. A crazy document from August 1991. Speaking of the long roots of the current conflict. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

#OpEd It is increasingly obvious that Europe, Ukraine, and Russia will be the main losers of this war. Trump's America is willing to let that happen, warns Sergey Radchenko.

On Substack, @radchenko.bsky.social recaps yesterday's UNSC debate, noting how Russian Deputy Rep Dmitry Polyansky trolled creatively by quoting JD Vance. Radchenko gives high marks to Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski's WWI allusions and no-nonsense threat to fire on future fighters.

"You have been warned." Take-aways form the latest UNSC session. open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I really had fun writing this. Enjoy! [Free access].

The correct response to Russian fighters overflying NATO territory is *obviously* to shoot them down. The reason why this is important is good old credibility. You don't do it now, you signal to the other side that you are afraid; therefore, they will do it again and again.

19th time lucky. open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I go over the 19th EU sanctions package to see if it's the real game changer we all hope it is (spoiler: it isn't).

When you slide into fascism, is there a sign at the bottom that says: "Welcome to FASCISM. You have arrived"? Asking for a friend.

👤 @radchenko.bsky.social on China’s financial backing of Russia: “These reports suggest a new level of assertiveness on the part of the Chinese, an almost brazen willingness to deal with major Russian state entities despite sanctions risks.” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Russia is escalating exactly as predicted; we are still reacting. The EU needs a Russia strategy. Much more to do, but here’s a start. ⬇️ w/ @radchenko.bsky.social

Veronica Anghel and yours truly have a piece in Foreign Affairs on Europe's harebrained policy towards Russia. foreignaffairs.com/russia/europ.... Some key points: 1) Europe does not have a Russian strategy. In fact, it seems Europe cannot even think strategically.

That should be fun!

A great piece by my Kissinger Center colleague Frank Gavin. Hugely important. People misuse history, and all your favorite analogies are flawed. Thinking historically, Gavin argues, is not about dusting off old answers, but about asking the right kinds of questions. www.noemamag.com/the-lost-art....

Merkel's Freedom: reflections of a sympathetic reader. Here I go over Merkel's memoir, finding a lot of revealing bits and pieces on Russia, Ukraine, the Bucharest Summit, the Minsk Agreements, etc. A must read despite being something less than a page-turner. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

Some thoughts on the drone attacks. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

That's just not the case. Poland narrowly avoided a Soviet invasion in 1956, and again in 1981, when Gen. Jaruzelski spared Moscow the trouble by imposing martial law. But you knew that.

The "breakthrough" of Power of Siberia 2 open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... Here's what we know.

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @radchenko.bsky.social discuss Sino-Russian relations in the past and present, and examine how strong the bond really is between the two.

What should we make of Xi's great show? open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I draw on my new FP piece to spell out additional thoughts on where we are post-Tianjin and Beijing.

I have a new piece in @foreignpolicy.com, where I argue that we should not be too horrified with what has happened in Tianjin and Beijing in the last couple of days. Keep calm and carry on. foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/03/c...

At the summit in Alaska, Putin “matched Trump’s performative diplomacy with performative negotiations”—and essentially manipulated Washington into believing that Moscow was making serious concessions, writes @alexgabuev.bsky.social.

Well I'll be dammed. My book Two Suns in the Heavens--long out of print--reappeared on Amazon for god knows what reasons, and can now be purchased here: amazon.com/Two-Suns-Hea.... Alongside Lorenz Lüthi's Sino-Soviet split, it's something of a classic at this point.

Folks, if you are confused by where we are with "security guarantees" for Ukraine, I've prepared a very detailed breakdown, and options for future negotiations. It's all in this Substack post: open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

Brilliantly summed up by @radchenko.bsky.social. There's no progress. Not a whiff of Russian concessions. "Trump’s diplomacy is little more than a fireworks show". www.spectator.co.uk/article/puti...

In most recent episode of “The Great State Mural: #Mongolia Portrayed” @ananddairtan.bsky.social and I speak to @radchenko.bsky.social about how the Mongolian People’s Republic fits into his “To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power”. pca.st/episode/7ebd...

I have a piece in today's Spectator that looks at Putin's alleged acceptance of "security guarantees" for Ukraine: www.spectator.co.uk/article/puti.... I argue that Putin did not in fact make any concessions.

Trump's proposals to Ukraine and Europe. open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I offer my views on where this is going, and what's missing from the picture.

Folks, I promised a critical self-assessment of my predicting powers. Here we go. "How well did I do? An assessment." open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

I do feel a bit sorry for Trump. I am sure he wants to do the right thing even if for the wrong reasons. And it takes a certain bravery or at least foolhardiness to attempt to deliver a miracle. I feel no joy or vindication for having been proven right. More like dejection.

Some more reflections from me on the forthcoming summit in Alaska. I draw on fun examples from the Cold War to show how summits tend to unfold. My guess is that Vienna could be a good model for what we are about to see.

A confidential readout on Yeltsin-Chirac, October 1997. Yeltsin's views on the Baltics, NATO and the EU. A consistent take, actually, throughout this period, but also later, under Putin.

My tuppence for Foreign Policy as to what we can expect of the forthcoming summit in Alaska: foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/13/t....

Another encounter between Russian and European leaders; another discussion of NATO and EU enlargement. This here is from Tony Blair's meeting with Chernomyrdin, October 6, 1997. A persistent theme.

open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... A curious historical document: UK Ambassador tries to predict who will become Russia's President after Yeltsin. This is dated October 1997. Doesn't quite get it right, but who would've seen it coming?

Ha, of all places, Alaska. Would never have crossed my mind. Definitely, meant to impress. It's fairly rare to hold summits somewhere that is not a capital city, but it's certainly not unheard of. The Russians have held multiple summits in Siberia (Putin-Kim in Vladivostok or Putin-Mori in Irkutsk).

A great summary here by @bbcstever.bsky.social. The Russian expert community is having a deer-in-the-headlights moment like the rest of us.

Putin/Trump. What to expect. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

"Ukrainian support for the war effort collapses," reports Gallup. "Most now favor ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has dropped sharply since the early days of the conflict." They've lost faith in the US too. news.gallup.com/poll/693203/...

How not to do policy. Trump and India (some thoughts on Trump's tariffs and the likely outcomes). open.substack.com/pub/profradc....

Folks, if you are interested in the impact of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the Soviet thinking, and how the A-Bomb "made" the Cold War, go no further than this concise book I co-authored with Campbell Craig: www.amazon.com/Atomic-Bomb-.... A useful thing to read today.

Today is the 80th anniversary of the Hiroshima bombing. I have unearthed for you here a remarkable document: a Soviet report on their visit to Hiroshima and Nagasaki: observations, conversations--fed up the food chain to Stalin: open.substack.com/pub/profradc....

Medvedev's drunken rambling? How worried should we be. Some thoughts on the meaning of Dmitri Medvedev's tweets. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

How to handle the Russians. In the "random interesting document" category. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...