What to watch this week: tensions over Ukraine’s military transformation, obstacles facing tougher US sanctions on Russia, and whether declining refinery output becomes a sustained crisis.

'The Kremlin is simultaneously testing mechanisms for external de-escalation while reminding domestic elites that they will have to submit to increasingly restrictive wartime conditions.' Read the NEST Centre's latest briefing note: nestcentre.org/pragmatism-f...

'Russia never had to annex Belarus to achieve most of its strategic objectives.' Watch Katia Glod and Ian Bond discuss the findings of Glod's latest paper on Russia's influence in Belarus and what it means for European security. youtu.be/LURV0dpxuKo

Russia's coal industry was once one of the country's biggest export success stories. In a new short analysis, Nikolay Kulbaka explains why it's now in crisis—and what that reveals about the Kremlin's economic model. 🔗 nestcentre.org/the-coal-trap/

Russia's pro-war Z community has built powerful volunteer networks, media platforms and direct links to the front. But could growing frustration with the authorities become a political challenge? New report by Ella Paneyakh: nestcentre.org/angry-but-st...

Is Andrey Melnichenko's recent intervention a rare act of dissent, or a carefully calibrated message from the Kremlin? Join The Economist's Arkady Ostrovsky and NEST Centre's Sergey Aleksashenko this Thursday to discuss. Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

NEST Centre's John Lough and Nikolai Petrov joined Meduza's Russian-language podcast to discuss the findings of our recent report, 'Cracks in the Kremlin Walls,' and what could actually threaten the stability of the Putin regime. 🔗 youtu.be/hWqTR6F1el0

77% of Russians believe the war is harming the economy. NEST Centre's latest nationwide polling suggests economic pessimism is growing and attitudes are shifting. Read Sergey Aleksashenko's latest analysis: nestcentre.org/the-war-come...

What to watch this week from NEST Centre experts: ➡️ The Kremlin's reading of the NATO summit ➡️ Growing tensions between Moscow and Russia's business elite ➡️ Whether fuel shortages begin to trigger public protest

Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries have triggered a fuel crisis that is exposing one of the Kremlin's greatest vulnerabilities: its inability to respond quickly to complex crises. Read the latest NEST Centre briefing note 🔗 nestcentre.org/russias-fuel...

How prepared is the West for a post-Putin Russia? John Lough spoke to The Sun about why the West should be planning for the possibility that change in Russia could come more rapidly than expected, alongside the NATO summit, fuel shortages and the war. www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDQa...

There is still time to register for this online discussion on 15 July. 🔗 zoom.us/webinar/regi...

The recording of this week's Midweek Briefing is now available. Eugene Rumer joined John Lough to discuss how the NATO summit, Europe's rearmament, and Ukraine's battlefield gains are reshaping Russia's security calculations. youtu.be/T1cYsETtusc

In a new short analysis, Nikolay Kulbaka examines Russia's shipbuilding industry to show how the Kremlin's industrial policy works in practice—and why understanding the micro-level of the economy is essential to understanding the bigger picture. nestcentre.org/putins-indus...

'Even under an authoritarian system, elections can still serve a variety of purposes.' In a new interview with Ben Noble, Nikolai Petrov explains why Russia's September State Duma elections still matter—and what they reveal about the Kremlin's wartime politics. 🔗 nestcentre.org/the-meaning-...

'Russians are very much concerned and aware of these disruptions.' NEST Centre's Head of Sociology Ella Paneyakh spoke to The Straits Times about Putin's declining popularity in the face of widespread fuel shortages. www.straitstimes.com/world/europe...

Join this week's 30-min briefing: 'The Ankara summit: implications for Russia.' Eugene Rumer joins John Lough to discuss the results of the NATO summit and how they are likely to be interpreted in Moscow. 9 July | 16:00 CET | 10:00 EST | Online Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

The NEST Centre's report, 'War with the Anglo-Saxons,' is featured in a new Kyiv Post analysis on how the Kremlin frames Britain as Russia's historic enemy to justify its war against Ukraine. 📰 Article: kyivpost.com/post/79716 📑 Report: nestcentre.org/war-with-the...

📷 Some highlights from the NEST Centre's 'Russia in Focus: Policy Research Intensive.' Over four days, 28 participants joined expert lectures, debates, workshops, simulations, and a discussion with oscar-winning filmmaker Pavel Talankin.

What to watch this week, from NEST Centre Experts🧵 [1/5]

"The Kremlin has been systematically preparing Kaliningrad to withstand isolation." NEST Centre's latest briefing note examines why Moscow is strengthening contingency plans for the Russian exclave, and what this could mean for security in the Baltic region. 🔗 nestcentre.org/rising-tensi...

The recording of this week's briefing is now available. Stanislav Andreychuk joined Katia Glod to discuss what Russia's September State Duma elections reveal about the Kremlin's priorities, the war's growing role in politics, and the mechanisms sustaining electoral control. 🔗 youtu.be/SreDKa5fpaE

How has Russia reshaped its relationship with Belarus since 2020, and what does it mean for European security? Join Katia Glod in conversation with Ian Bond on 15 July for an online discussion hosted by the NEST Centre. Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Russia's online marketplaces have become too important to remain independent. In a new short analysis, Nikolay Kulbaka examines why Wildberries and Ozon have attracted the attention of the Kremlin and what it reveals about control over Russia's economy. 🔗 nestcentre.org/too-big-to-i...

Join this week's 30-min briefing: 'United Russia and the difficult road ahead to September’s parliamentary elections.' Stanislav Andreychuk joins Katia Glod to discuss the internal dynamics of the party and the challenges facing the Kremlin before September.

Russia and Ukraine's demographic crisis began long before 2022, but the war has made it harder to reverse. In a new short analysis, Sergey Aleksashenko & Aby Shukiurov examine why migration may become essential to both countries' future. 🔗 nestcentre.org/russia-and-u...

Repression in Russia is no longer aimed only at dissent. In a new research paper for the NEST Centre, Nikolai Petrov argues it is increasingly being used to discipline officials, business leaders and the ruling elite itself. 🔗 nestcentre.org/war-inside-r...

"Ukraine's recent approach has proven effective." NEST Centre's Katia Glod tells The Kyiv Independent that Kyiv's willingness to pressure Minsk directly is changing Lukashenko's calculus and could alter his relationship with Putin. 🔗 kyivindependent.com/lukashenko-b...

"Membership of Putin's inner circle no longer guarantees immunity." NEST Centre's latest briefing note examines what the arrest of influential St Petersburg businessman Ilya Traber reveals about the Kremlin's changing expectations of Russia's elites. 🔗 nestcentre.org/a-signal-to-...

What to watch this week, from NEST Centre Experts🧵 [1/5]

The recording of this week's briefing is now available. Nikolai Petrov joined John Lough to discuss Ukraine's intensifying campaign against occupied Crimea and what the mounting pressure could mean for both the Putin regime and the future course of the war. youtu.be/GTndGpm_y9s

The greatest threat to Russia's economic stability may come from within the regime itself. A growing struggle between the siloviki and economic pragmatists is shaping migration policy, capital controls, nationalisations, and the balance between security priorities and economic logic.

Join this week's 30-min briefing: 'The Kremlin's Crimea problem.' Nikolai Petrov joins John Lough to discuss the growing pressure on the peninsula, and what it means for the Kremlin. 25 June | 16:00 CET | 10:00 EST Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

How did Rosatom come to dominate the global market for nuclear power plant exports? In a new NEST Centre analysis, Sergey Aleksashenko examines the financing, delivery model, and state support behind Russia's nuclear export success. nestcentre.org/the-nuclear-...

Will Russia annex Belarus? Russia faces real incentives to tighten its grip on Belarus. Yet formal annexation would also create significant political, economic and security costs. The result is a more ambiguous reality: deepening control without formal unification.

What to watch this week, from NEST Centre Experts ⤵️ 🧵[1/5]

Russia's next parliamentary election is becoming a battleground for competing elite factions. NEST's latest briefing note explores how growing tensions inside the regime could shape the country's political future. nestcentre.org/encountering...

'Empathy, access to Putin and the commitment to be an effective middleman.' NEST Centre's John Lough explains why Roman Abramovich has re-emerged as a key intermediary in efforts to advance Russia-Ukraine peace talks. inews.co.uk/news/world/p...

The recording of this week's briefing is now available. John Foreman joined John Lough Ukraine's expanding drone campaign, Russia's struggle to translate battlefield pressure into a breakthrough, and the future of the war. youtu.be/7SpRQlyuWoY

'Trump turned 80 as a diminished figure in Russian eyes: less central, less respected, covered less.' A new analysis by Sergey Mastitsky examines how Trump's standing in Russian-language media has changed amid stalled Ukraine talks and the Iran conflict. nestcentre.org/trump-at-80-...

Join our upcoming 30-min mid-week briefing: 'Russia, Ukraine and the changing balance of the war.' JohnForeman joins John Lough to discuss discuss how the Russian army is planning to achieve victory in Ukraine. 18 June | 16:00 CET | 10:00 EST Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Despite mounting military and economic pressures, there is little evidence that Putin's system faces imminent collapse. The NEST Centre's latest report, cited in a new the Times essay by Marc Bennetts, examines why. Article: www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... Report: nestcentre.org/cracks-in-th...

Summer holidays are more than leisure in Russia. They are part of the social contract. A new briefing note explores how disruption in Crimea and southern Russia could deepen the decline in Putin’s approval ratings as the war increasingly affects everyday life. nestcentre.org/cancelled-ho...

What to watch this week (15-21 June 2026), from NEST Centre Experts 🧵 ⬇️

As Ukraine projects new confidence and diplomacy returns to the agenda, is the momentum shifting? NEST Centre's Katia Glod recently sat down with DW News to discuss the currents trends of the war in Ukraine. Watch the full interview: www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyRF...

Photos from our recent report launch event for "Cracks in the Kremlin walls: Threats to the stability of the Putin regime." Thanks to Bridget Kendall, Nikolai Petrov, Ella Paneyakh, and John Lough for a thoughtful discussion.

Sergey Aleksashenko's latest analysis for NEST, with original survey data, has been featured today in The Independent. The findings point to growing economic dissatisfaction, especially among vulnerable households, but little sign of political mobilisation. www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...

The recording of this week's briefing is now available. Angela Stent joined John Lough to discuss Moscow's assessment of the second Trump term and the future of US-Russia relations. youtu.be/2XjDf0HYDc0

What do recent regional reshuffles reveal about the Kremlin’s wartime priorities? Nikolai Petrov explains: nestcentre.org/explaining-r...

What could actually bring down Vladimir Putin's regime? Watch Nikolai Petrov, Ella Paneyakh, and John Lough discuss why the Kremlin remains more stable than many assume—and the economic, social and political risks that could threaten it over time. www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqsD...