Read our final briefing note of the year. 🗒️ nestcentre.org/year-in-revi... The analysis highlights the continuity of the regime’s core priorities – the war, the economy, and social and demographic policy – and the continued absence of any articulated long-term development goals.

"The recent deal on the release of political prisoners struck by Lukashenka and the Trump administration, which led to the partial easing of potash sanctions against Belarus, took place with Moscow’s tacit approval." Read the NEST Centre's latest briefing note 🗒️ nestcentre.org/belarusian-p...

Missed this week's briefing? Watch it now on YouTube 📽️ 🔗 youtube.com/watch?v=bq6C... Vytis Jurkonis joined John Lough to discuss the release of 123 Belorussian political prisoners in exchange for limited sanctions relief on potash.

"Russia hopes to make European governments more cautious, more divided, and more focused on avoiding short-term risks rather than on Ukraine’s long-term security." Katia Glod, NEST Centre's Deputy Head of Foreign Policy, writes for The i Paper 📰

The U.S. and Europe are divided on Belarus’ sanctions - will Russia sanctions be next? Join our mid-week briefing, 'Prisoners for Potash,' as Lithuanian Belarus' expert Vytis Jurkonis joins John Lough. 18 Dec | 16:00 CET | 10:00 EST Register to attend: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Despite the absence of breakthrough agreements, Putin's recent visit to India sent a clear signal to Washington and Beijing that Moscow and New Delhi continue to preserve room for independent manoeuvre. Read our latest briefing note on the Russia-India Partnership 🗒️ nestcentre.org/a-partnershi...

In case you missed last week’s briefing, watch the full discussion with John Lough, Boris Bondarev and Sarang Shidore 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mqby...

"The Russian economy is close to stagnation... [but the Kremlin's] glass is half full." Sergey Aleksashenko spoke with @cnbc.com on Putin's ability to continue financing the war in Ukraine for two or three more years, despite rising economic pressures. www.cnbc.com/2025/12/12/u...

"The Russians want Europeans to believe they are vulnerable and that Russia will ultimately be able to dictate the terms for a new security system in Europe." NEST Centre's John Lough spoke to @euronews.com on European defence capabilities and Moscow's hybird war. www.euronews.com/2025/12/11/e...

Tomorrow Sarang Shidore and Boris Bondarev join John Lough, to assess the results of Putin's recent visit to India and the current state of the Russia-India relationship. Midweek Briefing | 11 Dec | 16:00 CET zoom.us/webinar/regi...

📸 Photos from our recent book talk on 'The Disorderly Society' by Bobo Lo, moderated by NEST's Katia Glod 📸 Watch recording of the discussion now: m.youtube.com/watch?v=0mmQ... #GreatPowers #Authoritarianism #GlobalPolitics #BookLaunch

“Russia has to reckon with the fact that Donald Trump has three more years in the White House. Will he be a lame-duck president in a year?” On Times Radio, John Lough warns Putin doubts MAGA can avoid collapse — shaping Moscow’s stance on any future Ukraine deal. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKnr...

"The US President’s comments appear indicative of some alignment between Trump and Putin on their desire to try to remove Zelensky from the game." John Lough spoke to The I paper on the latest in the Russia-Ukraine peace process. inews.co.uk/news/world/t...

In case you missed last week’s briefing, watch the full discussion with John Lough and Mark Galeotti now 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FF...

NEST’s latest briefing reveals how the war economy has reshaped the incentives of Russian elites, and why neither beneficiaries nor peace advocates are likely to get the outcome they expect. nestcentre.org/beneficiarie...

“There is no reason to believe that the parties will take advantage of the window of opportunity that has arisen, but it is safe to say that they currently have one." Vladimir Pastukhov, NEST Centre Head of Research, in @washingtonpost.com www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

"We're a very long way away from a deal because there is an enormous gulf here between the two sides." John Lough spoke to ABC News AU about key sticking points for Russia and Ukraine in ongoing peace negotiations www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...

Russia’s 2012 “May-decree” incentivized officials to reassign causes of death — causing dramatic drops in reported cardiovascular deaths and spikes in dubious categories. As a result, official mortality data may no longer reflect reality. Read the new analysis → nestcentre.org/how-the-2012...

“If Trump’s plan ultimately fails (which is highly likely), it will not be because the conversation was leaked... I fear that the hype surrounding this leak is greatly exaggerated." — Vladimir Pastukhov, NEST Centre Research Director, in the Kyiv Post. 📰 🔗 www.kyivpost.com/post/65167

John Lough tells Times Radio the Witkoff leak may have come from inside the GOP: Republicans who oppose Trump’s approach to Ukraine and reject a deal that rewards Russian aggression “stand to gain” from exposing Witkoff’s alignment with Moscow. 🎥 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ljm...

Duncan Allan’s new research paper for the NEST Centre unpacks how Russia’s drive to be a “great power” means dismantling the post-1991 order in Europe. He traces the roots of this clash and Moscow’s strategy since 2000. Read the full paper 🗒️ 🔗 nestcentre.org/to-be-a-grea...

The recording of this week’s NEST Centre midweek briefing is now available. John Lough and Elizaveta Fokht unpack the Kremlin’s negotiating strategy, the risks driving Moscow’s calculations, and what this means for Europe’s security environment. 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=v69e...

"In a prolonged war of attrition, Moscow uses negotiations as an additional tool of pressure rather than a means of reaching compromise." Read our latest briefing note, 'Negotiations of Attrition' 📃🔗 nestcentre.org/negotiations...

By late November 2025, the Russian economy began to show clear signs of weakness. Industrial decline has intensified, the federal budget is still in deficit, while inflation remains unstable. Read new economic analysis by Sergey Aleksashenko: nestcentre.org/russia-faces...

“I think that there is a question for Putin … whether he wants to miss the opportunity to gain from Trump’s assistance – because at some point Trump’s going to become fed up." John Lough spoke with CNN's Lauren Kent on the latest push for peace in Ukraine 📰 🔗 www.cnn.com/2025/11/25/e...

Is a negotiated end to the war in sight? Join our briefing on Russia (Thursday, 27 Nov. at 16:00 CET). 🔗 zoom.us/webinar/regi... Elizaveta Fokht (the BBC Russian Service) will join John Lough (NEST Centre) to discuss the recently-proposed peace plan and the likelihood of a settlement.

John Lough joined France 24 to assess whether Ukraine can receive “meaningful security guarantees” from Western allies as the Kremlin rejects Europe’s counter-proposal to the U.S. 28-point peace plan. Watch here 🎥 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oZ7...

Nikolai Petrov, NEST Centre Senior Researcher, joined @csis.org's "Russian Roulette" podcast to discuss the current status of the Russian elite, and why it finds itself increasingly under pressure from state security organs. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHM_...

Unable to attend this week's briefing? Watch the recording of the discussion, 'Going dark: What lies behind the increasing internet shutdowns in Russia?' now 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEMA... #InternetCensorship #DigitalFreedom #Russia

“Putin’s trusted messenger”: NEST Centre's Sergey Aleksashenko spoke to Foreign Policy on Kirill Dmitriev’s role in U.S.–Russia talks. 🗞️ 🔗 ForeignPolicy.com/2025/11/19/kirill-dmitriev-russia-envoy-putin-ukraine-witkoff

NEST Centre's Head of Foreign Policy, John Lough, joined Times Radio to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine — including reports of severe health issues within Russian forces and the broader collapse of military discipline. Watch the full conversation here 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHDG...

Is the Kremlin building its own internet? Join our 30-minute briefing on Russia, 'Going dark: What lies behind the increasing internet shutdowns in Russia?' Leonid Yuldashev joins John Lough to discuss. Thursday, 20 November 16:00 CET 🔗 zoom.us/webinar/regi... #InternetCensorship #DigitalFreedom

A recent article in The Guardian by Pjotr Sauer and Shuan Walker has cited the NEST Centre's recent report, 'War with the Anglo-Saxons: How Britain became Russia's enemy number one.' (🔗 📑 nestcentre.org/war-with-the...) Read the article here 📰 🔗 www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

"Russia’s foreign policy is undergoing a systemic crisis." Read our latest briefing note 🗒️ 🔗 nestcentre.org/the-crisis-o...

Unable to attend yesterday's mid-week briefing? Watch the recording of the discussion, 'Lavrov's disappearance and the challenges facing Russian diplomacy,' now 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=V680... #RussianDiplomacy #ForeignPolicy #WarInUkraine

On 19 Nov in London, the Delegation of the EU to the UK & the Centre for European Reform will host a discussion on "The future of Belarus in a peaceful Europe" with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The NEST Centre's Katia Glod will offer a response. www.cer.eu/events/cerde...

Russia’s economy isn’t collapsing – it’s stagnating. Read our new report with the Center for Analysis and Strategies in Europe (CASE), 'The Dictator’s Legacy: A New Zastoy.' 🔗📰 nestcentre.org/the-dictator... #RussianEconomy #Sanctions #WarInUkraine

"Public opinion in Russia regarding whether the use of nuclear weapons is justified has remained fluid and highly responsive to official rhetoric since the start of the war in Ukraine." Read the NEST Centre's latest briefing note, 'The new normal' 🔗 nestcentre.org/the-new-norm...

What does Sergei Lavrov’s disappearance reveal about Russian foreign policy? Join our 30-minute briefing on Russia on Thursday, 13 November, at 16:00 CET. Register to attend 🔗 zoom.us/webinar/regi... #Diplomacy #RussianPolitics #ForeignPolicy

"Kyiv has a very strong incentive to expand its attacks on Russia’s oil sector," John Lough, NEST Centre Head of Foreign Policy, writes for Chatham House. Read the commentary here 📃 🔗 www.chathamhouse.org/2025/11/ukra...

Unable to attend last Thursday's mid-week briefing? Watch the recording on YouTube now 📽️ 🔗 www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCyT...

Read our new briefing note, 'The new normal: Will the Kremlin use nuclear weapons?' 📑 🔗 nestcentre.org/the-new-norm...

Is the Kremlin serious about using a nuclear weapon? Pavel Baev (Research Professor at the International Peace Institute in Oslo) will join John Lough (NEST Centre Head of Foreign Policy) to discuss in this week's briefing (Thursday, 6 November, at 16:00 CET). 🔗 Register to attend: lnkd.in/eiEsFGPt

John Lough, NEST Centre Head of Foreign Policy, writes on the cancelled Trump-Putin summit, recent nuclear sabre rattling, and new sanctions on Russian oil in The i Paper. Read his recent piece here 📰 🔗 inews.co.uk/news/world/t...

As US-China relations improve, the Kremlin faces risks greater than those from sanctions or domestic pressures, exposing its growing dependence on Beijing. Read our latest briefing note, 'The Kremlin’s greatest fear: Exclusion from a grand bargain' 🔗 🗒️ nestcentre.org/the-kremlins...

"The Kremlin sees itself at war with the West. And it has singled out Britain as the European country most determined to do it harm," Katia Glod, NEST Centre Deputy Head of Foreign Policy, writes for LBC. 📰 🔗 www.lbc.co.uk/article/krem...

Trump's new sanctions won't work, but Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv might. Putin isn't a politician, he's a mob boss who only understands force. 🧵Here's why the recent talk of long-range weapons has rattled him, and what needs to happen next: [1/12]

Is the Kremlin worried? Join our 30-minute briefing on Russia, 'Stress tests for the Putin regime,' Thursday, 30 October, at 16:00 CET (11:00 EST). 🔗 Please register to attend: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

“The new U.S. sanctions are an attempt to put pressure on Russia. No self-respecting country ever does anything under pressure," says Mikhail Khodorkovsky, NEST Centre Founder. Read the full interview 🔗📰 www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

Read our new briefing note, 'Putin understands only force: Why peace talks have stalled.' 🔗 📃 nestcentre.org/putin-unders... And, in case you missed last week's briefing, watch the recording here 🔗▶️ youtube.com/watch?v=qouH...