Amazing to see these recycled arguments about the magical attributes of air power. What in recent U.S. historical experience could lead someone to write this?

NEW: In @justsecurity.org I analyze the Trump administration's reported theory for how it can continue its lethal maritime strikes despite the time limit on unauthorized military action imposed by the War Powers Resolution. www.justsecurity.org/123844/war-p...

When Trump-Xi meet will they build on trade détente their teams negotiated? Broaden talks to broach security issues? Pursue balance of military power that allows 🇺🇸🇨🇳to feel sufficiently assured that respective core interests are secure? - @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

My colleague Ali Wyne has a scene-setter ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow in South Korea. In addition to de-escalating trade tensions, he argues that Trump should strive to reinforce a fragile status quo and avoid under-developed policy improvisations. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

🎧 SPECIAL EPISODE | Hold Your Fire! Our experts discuss what the RSF’s takeover of Darfur’s El Fasher means for the trajectory of Sudan’s war and hopes for peace. www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sudan...

The exact circumstances that prompted Israeli’s bombing in Gaza today remain disputed, but the incident will be an early test for the various guarantors and the ceasefire monitoring body the U.S. has stood up in recent weeks. Will be problematic if there is divergence among the guarantors.

The U.S. pressure campaign in the Caribbean risks destabilizing the broader Andes region, with potentially catastrophic spillover effects. Our latest statement from @CrisisGroup 🧵 on Colombia takeaways 👇 www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.

Biden's policies on Gaza were a catastrophic failure, but it's misleading to see Trump's ability to bend Netanyahu as an obvious example of what Biden should've done. Biden failed to even try to use influence and leverage, but if he had it would've been a massive political battle with real costs.

The last few weeks and the ceasefire mark a major turnaround for US-Egypt ties, which have been markedly strained since Trump's return. With displacement for now having been explicitly set aside in the agreement and Cairo playing a major role in the talks, Sisi will feel huge relief and vindication.

A ceasefire in Gaza and all that that entails in a first phase will be cause for immense relief. The 20-point plan is obviously flawed, but what comes after will have to be heavily negotiated in any case and will only be sustained if there is sustained pressure from U.S., Europe and regional states.

‘Two years on, Gaza has paid the price for global inaction.’ As we mark Hamas’s attacks against Israel on 7 October 2023, @crisisgroup.org’s CEO and President @comfortero.crisisgroup.org reflects on what has unfolded since - and the urgent choices now before us. 1/9 🧵 mailchi.mp/crisisgroup....

Pleased to speak with the BBC about the lethal and lawless US strikes in the Caribbean. "There is no legal basis for these premeditated killings in the Caribbean."

On this week’s episode, I joined Richard Atwood along with my colleagues @mairavz.bsky.social @maxji.bsky.social and Amjad Iraqi to discuss Trump’s Gaza ceasefire proposals and next steps. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

This will generate some immediate friction with Israel over when to halt operations. But Hamas agreed to enough, particularly on the front end, to get a go-ahead from Trump.

A few impressions on US-Qatar security agreement (setting aside legal questions): it’s a precedent that other Gulf partners will seek to replicate; will be hugely frustrating to restraint wing of admin, particularly at DoD; and, lastly, it’s a reflection of Arab influence when properly marshaled.

The conspicuous absence of Egypt's President Sisi from UNGA is telling with respect to the state of U.S.-Egypt relations. That absence is further magnified by today's meeting with Trump, which is to include key Arab and Muslim states.

Truly welcome news that should have happened long ago.

Hear @bcfinucane.bsky.social from the International Crisis Group discuss the legality of the Trump administration's lethal strikes on boats allegedly carrying illegal drugs from Venezuela: www.wnyc.org/story/are-th...

If you take what a 9-0 Court said in Vullo seriously, it seems clear to me that Kimmel has not just a plausible jawboning claim but a strong one on the basis of Carr's threats. (Always read Genevieve Lakier 👇)

The capitulation of elites and elite institutions to authoritarian intimidation fundamentally misunderstands or fails to appreciate the system of laws and norms that has provided them with a sustainable framework to flourish. The lack of fidelity to constitutional order and open society is pathetic.

the total lack of interest from business and media elites in defending the liberal norms that underpin civil society and like, modern capitalism for that matter has been truly shocking

Astonishing really. Classic authoritarian tactics to intimidate and chill speech. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/17/b...

In a country awash in firearms and violent political rhetoric, it’s frankly been miraculous that the U.S. has not suffered more political violence. But further steps in that direction would be utterly disastrous for civic democracy.

I spoke to Andrew England on how yesterday’s strikes will impact regional views of Trump and the U.S. Whether or not the U.S. had forewarning, the fact that Israel undertook the action has shaken confidence in U.S. reliability. on.ft.com/4ng5dSZ Israel unbound: was Qatar a strike too far?

I’m not so sure this time. The Gulf countries are genuinely stunned, particularly as they see Israel as operating without any constraints. That is unnerving and creates real concern about their security relationship with the U.S.

Notification after strikes are launched would be different than a U.S. green light for the operation. Either will be alarming for the region.

And U.S. forces at Al Udeid are there to provide air defenses. Likely to call into question the value of hosting U.S. bases.

After Iran bombed U.S. targets in Qatar in June, the GCC called an emergency meeting of foreign ministers. I assume a similar meeting will now be called after the Israeli strikes. The question will be whether they go beyond mere condemnation and solidarity.

I’m surprised by my continued capacity to be shocked. But this is stunning.

At one point in the recent past it was widely assumed that the Israeli desire for normalcy and regional integration could be levers by which to positively influence their approach to Palestinian issues. The last few years have clearly demonstrated how wrongheaded those assumptions were.

Israeli airstrikes on a GCC country crosses so many lines. Will be deeply shocking in the region. How UAE and Bahrain respond will be instructive.

Assassinating senior Hamas leadership at a moment when they were contemplating a purported ceasefire offer is revealing. Lays bare the lack of good faith that has characterized those discussions throughout.

NEW 🧵The White House has now issued its first formal legal justification for the lethal attack on a vessel in the Caribbean. This War Powers report to Congress is long on bluster and short on substance. This letter does not adequately justify the premeditated killing of apparent civilians. 1/n

It’s probably worth considering how the Saudis would perceive this nomination. They traditionally put a big emphasis on the stature, experience and standing of the U.S. ambassador. And understandably so. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/n...

I have a lot of questions. www.politico.com/news/2025/09...

With Netanyahu’s interview today threatening to open Rafah for Palestinians to leave Gaza, worth flagging our briefing from 2024 as it lays out predicament Egypt finds itself in; dilemmas discussed here have only deepened since. And difficulties of U.S.-Egypt relations under Trump also play a part.

A very useful piece by my colleague Praveen Donthi on India-China relations after the SCO summit in Tianjin and against the backdrop of the sudden, unexpected deterioration in U.S.-India ties. www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

Legal issues: 1) Was this strike purportedly carried out in self-defense? 2) Are these supposed "terrorists" deemed combatants subject to status-based targeting? Supposedly directly participating in hostilities? 3) What indicia are used to apply these categories here? 4) Degree of certainty?

NEW STATEMENT | The World’s Shame in Gaza Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war, lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life in the strip beyond hope of recovery. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

As calamitous as the Israeli military campaign has been, the current phase threatens the viability of continued Palestinian life in Gaza. Other actors, particularly a disengaged U.S., must do much more to rein in this disaster: www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Having worked on U.S. India policy in Trump 1.0, I’ve been skeptical that India would ever become the strategic partner in “great power competition” that some hoped for. Even so, to damage U.S.-India relations in this manner is nuts.

That is unbelievable. About the same distance as Coutinho’s free kick at the Emirates in 2016.

Setting aside the sheer malevolence and criminality of these ideas, they also happen to be fantastical. A shameful episode. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Ridiculous really. Like, just a standard 2-0 could’ve worked too.

Liverpool really committed to the drama this year.