The US defense industrial base can’t — and shouldn’t — compete with China one-for-one. My thoughts on what it will take to rebuild the DIB [spoiler: making hard choices], what we can learn from previous periods of defense innovation, and the long road ahead. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Strikes on Iran remain on the table, even if Trump holds off for now. A potential attack could come from US or Europe-based aircraft, or from destroyers already in the region. A CSG is not a prerequisite. My take on what strikes and possible targets could look like: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Very excited for my Bloomberg defense partner-in-crime @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social's must-read new newsletter. Who knows, there might even be a guest appearance from yours truly. Sign up!

A new $1B Pentagon investment in L3Harris goes after a critical bottleneck: solid rocket motors. They’re essential to scaling missile & drone production and replenishing munitions expended in recent operations, but the deal comes with strings attached. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Agree with @beccawasser.bsky.social. Elaine McCusker’s shown the financial cost of ops in the past 5 months at $1.4B, but Elaine would also say you can’t buy back lost time. The opportunity cost is incredibly high.

The US can keep forces in the Caribbean — but at a high cost. These deployments burn readiness, limit presence elsewhere, and leave the US less prepared for future crises. Back to shouting about readiness to anyone who will listen (and even those who won't): www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Private defense companies self-fund R&D, betting the Pentagon will buy what they build. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Public defense firms play a different game, building to DoD requirements -- even with internal R&D. My comments: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

My public service announcement on the Bloomberg Terminal (and I really hope to be right!) 👇🏻

“It is impossible for Japan to stockpile enough raw material to service all sectors — let alone the defense sector itself.” My take on the limited options for Japan’s defense industry to minimize the impact of China’s export controls. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I talked to the WSJ about the potential pitfalls of the Pentagon’s drone buying programs. One of the biggest risks: the drones will be OBE by the time they arrive. Keeping costs low, using software and commercial components to incrementally upgrade drones will be key. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

I joined Bloomberg Radio to talk about our recent analysis of the Golden Dome missile defense system. We covered what it would look like, how much it would cost, and what it would take to build. The answer? A lot of time and a lot of money. youtu.be/1KbnsE-sVkA

ICYMI, we developed an architecture for Golden Dome capable of defending against aerial threats from China, Russia, and DPRK, in line with Trump's Executive Order. The price tag? A cool $1.1 Trillion -- and that is the cost of hardware alone. Have a read (gift link below):

Will Trump’s Golden Dome actually cost $175B? Nope. Our @bloomberg.com visual analysis shows a $1.1T (yes, trillion!) cost to defend the US against aerial threats from Russia, China, and North Korea. Even a smaller architecture would cost $844B. Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

“The US is behind the curve when it comes to lowering the cost per shot. No longer can the US expect to win a fight with expensive and exquisite weapons – it must also embrace low-cost systems like affordable drones it can reuse, or accept losing.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

On today’s Big Take podcast: Bloomberg’s Nick Wadhams and Becca Wasser join David Gura to break down President Trump’s ultimate objective in Venezuela — and what the growing US military presence in the Caribbean reveals about what could come next.

Ukraine’s drones are hitting Russia where it hurts: oil refineries that fuel and fund its war. Each strike cuts output and chips away at Moscow’s war chest. Kyiv’s bet: economic attrition where battlefield gains have stalled. More on Bloomberg Terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

The US isn't at war in Latin America, but the military build up hints it may be readying for strikes on Venezuela -- even if Trump says otherwise. I analyzed the options for a possible military campaign and the low odds of success. Read on Bloomberg terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Zelensky wants Tomahawk missiles and Trump may finally agree this week. But limited stockpiles after overuse in the Middle East and poor procurement decisions means Ukraine may get too few to credibly impact the outcome of the war. Read on Bloomberg terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Great to chat with Bloomberg Radio about NATO's response to Russia's airspace violations and Trump's about-face on Ukraine. My take: NATO's messages are a deterrent warning and Trump's pivot won't change facts on the ground without more US military aid to Kyiv. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

Our take: "With current support, Ukraine is unlikely to regain lost territory. Ukraine would need a significant surge in Western military assistance, including ERAM and longer-range missiles, to halt Russian advances and enable counteroffensives." www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

Russian drones & jets keep testing NATO airspace. Operation Eastern Sentry aims to plug holes in Europe's defenses, but it reveals gaps in capability Russia can exploit -- especially if US reinforcements are not forthcoming. Full analysis on the Terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Taiwan's drone and software buying blitz isn't just about shiny defense tech -- it's about having the capabilities needed to mount a credible defense. If the aim is to turn the Taiwan Strait into a "hellscape," this is how: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

In recent conflicts, drones have rewritten the economics of war: low-cost, high-volume threats vs. expensive, limited defenses. Changing the cost-per-kill is an imperative, but equally expensive. My thoughts on this challenge featured in this smart piece: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

missiles, Missiles, MISSILES www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

China's parade shows its military is advancing fast -- but can it take Taiwan and defeat the US by 2027? A look at how the two militaries stack up in key missions says no, but the balance of power is rapidly shifting. Full analysis available on the Terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

China's once-a-decade military parade showed off a slew of missiles, a directed-energy weapon for taking out drones and — for good measure — robot dogs. See what stood out: bloom.bg/41wT1o2 📷: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

If you’re up to catch China’s military parade, join me and my colleagues as we break down what the new drones, missiles, and shiny new hardware might mean. www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

I told @economist.com: Taiwan has a tricky balance: keep enough of TSMC's operations at home to retain its silicon shield while offshoring to accommodate nations eager to gain an advantage in advanced semiconductors -- including the US, which Taipei hopes would come to their defense if China invades

Some professional news (as they say): I recently joined Bloomberg Economics to lead their defense analysis. I'm excited to work at the intersection of defense, geopolitics, and economics. Stay tuned for more from me!

"It's going to very difficult not only for the US to be able to get the critical equipment it might need into the Pacific, but it also might struggle to get some of the critical components that the defense industrial base needs out of the Indo-Pacific." mwi.westpoint.edu/mwi-podcast-...

❗New Strategy Speaks❗ Becca Wasser from CNAS joins Daniel Fiott to discuss the revitalisation of the US defence industrial base and its consequences for Europe. A must-listen as we head towards the Hague Summit! Apple🔸 podcasts.apple.com/be/podcast/s... Spotify🔸 open.spotify.com/episode/5eMO...

President Trump heads to Saudi Arabia in a bid to incentivize investments in U.S. defense industry. If the 2017 arms deal is any indication, then we shouldn't hold our breath. I talked to @npr.org about whether past is prologue and why arms sales are hard to track: www.npr.org/2025/05/09/n...

The US defense industrial base cannot keep pace with defense modernization efforts while also filling the massive demand for defense items in Ukraine, the Middle East, & the Indo-Pacific. Good new report by @cnas.bsky.social's @beccawasser.bsky.social & P. Sheers. 👇 www.cnas.org/publications...

A new CNAS report on the US defence industrial base. Simple conclusion: "The U.S. DIB is projected to be unable to meet the expected demands of future great power conflict...The DIB lacks the surge capacity to rapidly replenish weapons needed" s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.o...

Pleased to release my latest @cnas.bsky.social report on how to revitalize the U.S. defense industrial base so that it can keep pace with modern conflict, deter a future China challenge, and secure U.S. and global interests. Read more here: www.cnas.org/publications...

Second, @beccawasser.bsky.social & I were both interviewed as a part of the @hooverinstitution.bsky.social wargaming oral history project. wargaming.hoover.org/browse/colle...

Future warfare predicated on AI raises new interoperability issues. Technical and policy misalignment on military AI risks countries being unable to fight together in the future, meaning more must be done now to create military AI interoperability. foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/24/m...

If there is an uptick in defense budgets, can European defense industry rapidly build more weapons? I talked with @evanhd.bsky.social at BBC Radio 4 about why the answer is both yes and no -- and why drone production differs from manufacturing big exquisite platforms. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

“Replicator initiative has attempted to create a process to rapidly procure attritable drones, but it is not clear if it has produced capabilities relevant to the Indo-Pacific. The Trump team has the opportunity to correct this & tangibly increase American combat power” www.cnas.org/publications...

What should the Trump Administration prioritize during its first 100 days? Integrating autonomous systems into the force at scale, backed by warfighting concepts that combine low-cost systems with high-end capabilities. @spettyjohn.bsky.social @carltonhaelig.bsky.social www.cnas.org/publications...

Big questions for Trump's SecDef pick on key defense issues in today's hearing. What are the DoD priorities? Where are they going to put money and time--readiness or modernization? And what is the priority for deterrence--the Indo-Pacific or brushfires around the globe? Politico's Morning Defense.

Looking forward to hosting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict to discuss how irregular warfare is evolving to meet challenges from China, Russia, and other threats. Join us @cnas.bsky.social tomorrow, Wed 17 Dec, at 10am ET. www.cnas.org/events/missi...

On ABC, I explained that the current drone sightings in the northeast have morphed into public hysteria, but that this is a wakeup call about the growing small drone threat & that the US is not prepared for it. abcnews.go.com/US/video/gro...

Replacing aging F-16s with F-35s at Misawa improves resilience—the ability to ride out and survive a potential PRC attack and resume operations. The missile threat to Misawa is real, and this move strengthens combat credibility essential for deterrence by denial. warontherocks.com/2022/12/the-...

There is a reason why nearly every US-China wargame we run results in a recommendation to the US Navy to speed up the rearm and reload of ships and submarines at sea. But there are knock-on effects of rapid rearming — we also need rapid production of missiles and torpedos for it to work.

Recent ops have strained already inadequate stocks of TLAMs & SM missiles, leaving the US less prepared for an Indo-Pacific conflict. I told @washingtonpost.com: “The rate of fire is really high; if you look at the rate of build, that circle does not square.” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Increased multipolarity has led to a new Indo-Pacific security architecture. I argue that, contrary to popular belief, a shift toward multipolarity aligns with US defense interests to bolster deterrence by denial, shown by posture, capability and DIB enhancements. www.ussc.edu.au/networked-de...

NATO has new force plans assigning countries to defend key territory. For the plans to work, allies need the right forces and capabilities which will take years to build. As Russia reconstitutes faster than expected, I ask: does NATO have the time it needs? foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/28/n...

Drones have transformed the battlefield in Ukraine, but have they been a revolution in military affairs? @spettyjohn.bsky.social examines Russian and Ukrainian drone warfare to determine that drones represent an incremental evolution in armed conflict. www.cnas.org/publications...